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WARCRAFT from Legendary Pictures and Universal Pictures (6/10/16)

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I was in China last week, and I can safely say this movie was huuuuuge there. My wife's cousin was there dressed opening night to watch it, and he thought it was pretty good not great.

 

here's the Chinese poster.

 

IMG_60831_zpsa3k4ws2j.jpg

 

but more importantly, here's the Warcraft Special BEER set from Tsingtao

 

IMG_6086_zpssdcpiudv.jpg

 

they are not effing around.

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The Night Elves looked like Blood Elves and like . (If the lore says that there were Blood Elves in the Alliance at that point, then I stand corrected, but they still looked like .)

 

They were neither--they were High Elves. The entire continent of Kalimdor and Night Elves were discovered by humans later than the movie's story in the lore.

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Wow -- after just 4 weekends in release, Warcraft made less than $500,000 domestic this weekend, having lost 75% of its theaters from last weekend.

 

We saw that it would be a fast fade domestically but I didn't imagine it would drop that quickly.

 

Came in # 18 for the weekend and still hasn't cracked $50 million total in the U.S.

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Wow -- after just 4 weekends in release, Warcraft made less than $500,000 domestic this weekend, having lost 75% of its theaters from last weekend.

 

We saw that it would be a fast fade domestically but I didn't imagine it would drop that quickly.

 

Came in # 18 for the weekend and still hasn't cracked $50 million total in the U.S.

 

and never will

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I'm not versed on video games at all, and know little of Warcraft. My nephew, however, loves it. Since my brother dislikes attending movies in the theater, I offered to take my nephew to see it, to spend some time with him.

 

I actually didn't think it was that bad, and it made me want to check out the game more. My nephew didn't seem to care for it. I'll have to do some research to talk more with him about it. We spent the ride home talking about comics instead.

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I loved it; my wife was desperate not to see it...by the end she was "I loved it"

 

then the next night at dinner she is "when is War Craft II coming out?"

 

lol

 

I am hoping China makes it happen

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Wow -- after just 4 weekends in release, Warcraft made less than $500,000 domestic this weekend, having lost 75% of its theaters from last weekend.

 

We saw that it would be a fast fade domestically but I didn't imagine it would drop that quickly.

 

Came in # 18 for the weekend and still hasn't cracked $50 million total in the U.S.

 

and never will

 

Don't worry, might not have been a huge success in the U.S., but I believe I read it had the biggest opening of the year in China.

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China loved it so much, even the online rights sold for a record level.

 

‘Warcraft’ Online Rights Sold for Record Fee in China (EXCLUSIVE)

 

Video-on-demand rights to Legendary Entertainment’s “Warcraft” have sold for a record figure in China where the film has been a smash hit.

 

The rights were licensed to streaming video platform PPTV for a sum in excess of $18 million (RMB120 million). The figure is believed to be more than double the previous highest license fee in China for a single, imported film.

 

PPTV obtains the rights in exclusivity, but its deal allows it to syndicate the movie to other streaming platforms. Prices are typically linked to a combination of the attractiveness of the film to Chinese audiences, and the length of the window between theatrical and online release – the quicker the film makes the transition online the higher the value.

 

Sounds like the Chinese market has big plans for this franchise.

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Is Legendary Moving Ahead With More WARCRAFT Films?

 

the film has only managed to grossed only $46.5 million domestically, from an estimated production budget of $160 million. However, the film has performed very well internationally, collecting $376.2 million and counting. Presently, the film's worldwide gross stands at $422.7 million. At first glance, that's a respectable gross that nearly triples the estimated production budget. However, with 89% of the film's gross coming from international markets that number is misleading. That's because the return from international markets is much less than the profit split between theaters and film studios in North America. It's generally agreed that the domestic box office gross is split 50:50 by theaters and film studios, but internationally, film studios only receive 1/3 of the gross. That would mean Legendary and Universal will receive $23.25 million from Warcraft's 46.5 million domestic haul but only $124.2 million from the film's international gross. Collectively, that gives the studio a $147.5 million return, just short of the estimated production budget of $160.

 

However, Warcraft fans shouldn't throw in the towel on a sequel just yet, this scenario is almost identical to the predicament Guillermo del Toro's Pacific Rim found itself in.

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Worth reading, from Forbes' Scott Mendelson:

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2016/07/13/box-office-warcraft-is-a-430-million-flop/#9e1ff6c9edca

 

He notes that, despite having made $430 million worldwide on its $160 million budget, analysts still believe the film lost $15 million overall for the studio.

 

Much of this is because studios only collect 25% of the box office take from China, where the film made the vast majority of its money.

 

Also notable is that Legendary put up 45% of the film's budget, and that studio was bought by a Chinese firm last year.

 

So it makes sense that it played well in China, given that it was primarily a Chinese production.

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Much of this is because studios only collect 25% of the box office take from China, where the film made the vast majority of its money.

 

I think this is an assumption on his part, as the article I posted above 1/3 the gross as the common overseas cut (if that can ever be proven, it would clear things up).

 

It's generally agreed that the domestic box office gross is split 50:50 by theaters and film studios, but internationally, film studios only receive 1/3 of the gross.

 

But still, 25% to 33% of the overall gross is not the domestic 50% take.

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1/3 is the traditional overseas take.

 

Several reputable sources have pointed out over the last four years that China is an exception and U.S. studios make only 25% of the gross receipts there, less than in any other country.

 

Also, for more specifics on Warcraft's estimated $15 million loss, see here:

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-analysis-warcraft-avoids-910268?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=THR%20Box%20Office_2016-07-13%2006:00:00_awashington&utm_term=hollywoodreporter_boxoffice

 

It notes that other analysts have put the overall loss at $30-40 million, but those don't take into account the record $24 million paid just for digital rights to the film in China, as well as the $20 million paid for ongoing merchandising rights in China.

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All this is moot. More than likely, because there is no reason not to, this franchise is going to a trilogy, possibly going as far as the Frozen Throne.

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Much of this is because studios only collect 25% of the box office take from China, where the film made the vast majority of its money.

 

I think this is an assumption on his part, as the article I posted above 1/3 the gross as the common overseas cut (if that can ever be proven, it would clear things up).

 

China is different because they're still not a capitalistic society and still officially Communist. The government manages the film market and limits how many foreign films are allowed to be shown in the country. Many of the ones they do allow don't even get a cut of the box office, they get a flat fee. When China allows revenue sharing at all, the max they allow is 25%.

 

This article details some of the restrictions the Chinese government places on foreign films:

 

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-1230-ct-china-box-office-20151230-story.html

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1/3 is the traditional overseas take.

 

Several reputable sources have pointed out over the last four years that China is an exception and U.S. studios make only 25% of the gross receipts there, less than in any other country.

 

Also, for more specifics on Warcraft's estimated $15 million loss, see here:

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-analysis-warcraft-avoids-910268?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=THR%20Box%20Office_2016-07-13%2006:00:00_awashington&utm_term=hollywoodreporter_boxoffice

 

It notes that other analysts have put the overall loss at $30-40 million, but those don't take into account the record $24 million paid just for digital rights to the film in China, as well as the $20 million paid for ongoing merchandising rights in China.

 

Why are they writing this article about losses while it's still in theaters without even attempting to factor in the remaining income? Relative to the overall revenue, $15 million to $40 million is only 3% to 9% of the revenue to date, and it could still make that amount by the time it's totally out of theaters--not to mention the income from streaming, networks, discs, etc. If someone thought this movie was going to bring in far more than half a billion, they were delusional. At its height the game had a bit over 10 million subscribers, and that was worldwide with only 3 to 4 million being in America and another 3 to 4 million in China. If every person who ever played the game bought a ticket that might be 20 million people, and that's only around $200 million. But plenty of the people who had ever played gave up on it within a few months and probably had little interest in a film. Thinking they'd draw a huge number of people who hadn't consistently played the game is bizarrely optimistic. ???

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China is different because they're still not a capitalistic society and still officially Communist. The government manages the film market and limits how many foreign films are allowed to be shown in the country. Many of the ones they do allow don't even get a cut of the box office, they get a flat fee. When China allows revenue sharing at all, the max they allow is 25%.

 

This article details some of the restrictions the Chinese government places on foreign films:

 

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-1230-ct-china-box-office-20151230-story.html

 

Now THAT is a really good article about the Chinese movie market.

 

But I wouldn't assume what China is allowing for studios is the model for everyone. That's the leap that has been made by some because they see one paper mention 25% studio share for all international markets.

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1/3 is the traditional overseas take.

 

Several reputable sources have pointed out over the last four years that China is an exception and U.S. studios make only 25% of the gross receipts there, less than in any other country.

 

Also, for more specifics on Warcraft's estimated $15 million loss, see here:

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-analysis-warcraft-avoids-910268?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=THR%20Box%20Office_2016-07-13%2006:00:00_awashington&utm_term=hollywoodreporter_boxoffice

 

It notes that other analysts have put the overall loss at $30-40 million, but those don't take into account the record $24 million paid just for digital rights to the film in China, as well as the $20 million paid for ongoing merchandising rights in China.

 

Why are they writing this article about losses while it's still in theaters without even attempting to factor in the remaining income? Relative to the overall revenue, $15 million to $40 million is only 3% to 9% of the revenue to date, and it could still make that amount by the time it's totally out of theaters--not to mention the income from streaming, networks, discs, etc. If someone thought this movie was going to bring in far more than half a billion, they were delusional. At its height the game had a bit over 10 million subscribers, and that was worldwide with only 3 to 4 million being in America and another 3 to 4 million in China. If every person who ever played the game bought a ticket that might be 20 million people, and that's only around $200 million. But plenty of the people who had ever played gave up on it within a few months and probably had little interest in a film. Thinking they'd draw a huge number of people who hadn't consistently played the game is bizarrely optimistic. ???

 

then why did they spend $275MM making and marketing the movie?

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