Pre-Heat Speculation Thread - Get it before it gets HOT 9 9

[ygogolak]

Just now, Lego said:

That's what I'm trying to find out.  It's apparently a very sensitive subject for some reason.

Are you saying variants don't count because they are "manufactured collectibles?

[Lego]

1 minute ago, kevhtx said:

I showed you the demand. That Elektra #2 book sold extremely well and was sold out at most LCS stores. It was a hard book to find.

It was a 1:25 variant... How are you still not getting this?

[kevhtx]

Im not arguing about long-term value, because none of us can prove/disprove that. I have no idea if in 10 years a J Scott Campbell book will be worth what it is now. I think its possible, but I don't know. But, as for value and demand, cool covers DO drive both. J Scott Campbell and his website depend on it.

[ygogolak]

Just now, Lego said:

It was a 1:25 variant... How are you still not getting this?

Because you have not been clear.

[kevhtx]

Just now, Lego said:

It was a 1:25 variant... How are you still not getting this?

There are a lot of 1:25 variants that aren't worth anything. Look at the Venom 150 coming out soon. I bet you will see that the Dell'Otto 1:25 will be more popular than the 1:100 Kubert. Why? Because of the cover and the cover artist. 

[kevhtx]

Just now, ygogolak said:

Because you have not been clear.

Yes, someone mentioned "under valued" and then got jumped on.

[kevhtx]

Another good example is Dell'Otto X-23 #1 1:25, its worth a lot more than the 1:75 variant. Why? the cover and cover artist. Its been worth a good chunk of change for a while now and probably will be for a long time. How long? Who the hell knows.

[Lego]

7 minutes ago, kevhtx said:

Another good example is Dell'Otto X-23 #1 1:25, its worth a lot more than the 1:75 variant. Why? the cover and cover artist. Its been worth a good chunk of change for a while now and probably will be for a long time. How long? Who the hell knows.

Let's talk about that one...  Because I'd love to understand this.

Here's the chart for a 9.8 X-23 #1 Dell'Otto and a couple snips of the recorded sales for that specific variant.  That jump from the last recorded sale in October 2012 to the next one in January 2016... how does that happen?  Are there two different Dell'Otto X-23 #1 variants?  Is this just a failure in GPA's data collection?



 

[SquareChaos]

 

People don't like to talk about off the record sales or even converse about why some people like a 3rd party to verify these prices.

[kevhtx]

1 minute ago, Lego said:

Let's talk about that one...  Because I'd love to understand this.

Here's the chart for a 9.8 X-23 #1 Dell'Otto and a couple snips of the recorded sales for that specific variant.  That jump from the last recorded sale in October 2012 to the next one in January 2016... how does that happen?  Are there two different Dell'Otto X-23 #1 variants?  Is this just a failure in GPA's data collection?



 

There are not 2 variants of that book from Dell'Otto. Must be a data issue from GPA. Maybe they weren't tracking it at that time or something. I don't know.

[Lego]

2 minutes ago, kevhtx said:

There are not 2 variants of that book from Dell'Otto. Must be a data issue from GPA. Maybe they weren't tracking it at that time or something. I don't know.

Interesting.  Wild that an ultra-common non-key book (630+ in 9.6 or better) would spike late in the game like that.  

[kevhtx]

6 minutes ago, Lego said:

Interesting.  Wild that an ultra-common non-key book (630+ in 9.6 or better) would spike late in the game like that.  

Dell'Otto is a hot cover artist. Thats one of his big hits. Obviously, ASM 667 is the biggie.

[Broke as a Joke]

17 minutes ago, kevhtx said:

Dell'Otto is a hot cover artist. Thats one of his big hits. Obviously, ASM 667 is the biggie.

ASM 667 is hot because of its supposed ultra rarity, the cover itself is nothing special. 

[kevhtx]

Just now, Broke as a Joke said:

ASM 667 is hot because of its supposed ultra rarity, the cover itself is nothing special. 

Yeah, I don't care for that cover. I agree with that. Its value is partially Dell'Otto, but mostly how rare it is. I just meant thats his cover with the most value right now.

[Okeydoke]

1 hour ago, Lego said:

How do those links support the position that there are covers creating sustainable value or demand?  A cool cover just doesn't drive value these days.  Most of the books in the threads you referenced are limited edition prints... manufactured collectibles.  They're the Bradford Exchange of comic books.

 

I guess I'm with you on this. If something is made to be rare it does "seem" kinda fake, at least to me. Others believe differently, and that's fine. I get it. If someone thinks a variant cover is awesome and has to have it that's great. When people start speculating, thinking the value is going to increase long-term they might have problems. There are always exceptions, but I think most variants will trend down in value. It's probably better to buy bronze or copper keys at some of these prices. Other types of variants, like price variants might be better. A good modern example of this is the Amazing Spider-Man #607 $3.99 newsstand variant - which also had a UPC printing error saying "Sensational Spider-Man ."

Edited April 24, 2017 by Okeydoke

[Aweandlorder]

I like CBaileypacker's picks. He always picks cool books. But that's all it is. And that's why this thread is not "moderns heating up". It's just a spec thread. 

Some books may be listed here with some sort of spec value that relates to character development or property licensing possibilities, some may just list a cool variant with spec possibilities. 

I'd like to hear from CBailey himself as to why he picked those books. 

I also agree that a hot looking cover doesn't necessarily make a book jump in value. Certainly a trending artist coupled w good cover, low dist, & maybe hot character MAY make for good spec material. But in honesty there are many hot looking variants/covers that a LCS will sell off the gate for $50+ and will actually lose value within days. 

So: hot cover+hype+low cost makes for a good spec. And even that doesn't work out all the time

Edited April 25, 2017 by Aweandlorder

[Aweandlorder]

Ok here's one for ya..

spawn #1

yup. The massively printed first issue.. not a variant or newsstand edition. 

Simply Spawn #1

I used to find them for $2-3. Sometimes $5. Now they are moving for $10-20. Sometimes higher. 

youd be surprised how many non comic collectors are aware of the character. I'm pretty sure that something stupid like a comic book men mention can make this a 50$ overnight. Maybe higher. 

And if that happens I doubt it will go back to being a dollar bin book ever again

[1Cool]

10 hours ago, Aweandlorder said:

Ok here's one for ya..

spawn #1

yup. The massively printed first issue.. not a variant or newsstand edition. 

Simply Spawn #1

I used to find them for $2-3. Sometimes $5. Now they are moving for $10-20. Sometimes higher. 

youd be surprised how many non comic collectors are aware of the character. I'm pretty sure that something stupid like a comic book men mention can make this a 50$ overnight. Maybe higher. 

And if that happens I doubt it will go back to being a dollar bin book ever again

Shut it!  I love seeing all the Spawn 1s in the $1/$5 boxes at shows.  They don't sell instantly for $15 but I sell a couple each month.  Got to love a classic cover of a well know character and a true 1st appearance to boot.  Love me some Spawn 1.

[1Cool]

I've not seen any movement yet but I'd expect the Longshot series to see a jump in the future.  Art Adams seems to be getting hotter with the variant cover crowd so I don't see a reason his premier series wouldn't become hotter along the way.

[1Cool]

New Mutants 1 seems to be a book on the rise and I don't see it going anywhere but up.  It must have had a huge print run but people are starting to see it's potential once the movie comes out.  I buy all the $5 copies I can find since they sell for $15 pretty easily.  I guess this book is more Copper then modern but it's still a good pick.

I thought it was cooling off but I do see some speculation buys for Daredevil 254 this month.  I even saw a couple copies on walls at C2E2 so maybe people already consider it a hot book and not a speculating book.

Edited April 25, 2017 by 1Cool