New podcast/video from Felix Comic Art (UPDATED 1/3/17!) 6 6

[Nexus]

 

11 minutes ago, GotSuperPowers? said:

So for those who have downloaded but not yet listened, should we delete and re-download?

You can listen to what you've got. If you find it intolerable, download the newer version.

We recorded it over the phone, hence the distortion. It's why we like to do these in person, generally. But we're working it out. Next phone conversation should be a lot better.

[Panelfan1]

Another great listen!

With respect to a question from Matt Todd - about secrecy and fresh to market etc..  it occured to me that these questions might be unique to our hobby.  

What other art collecting hobbies are made as public as ours?  At the centre of that is CAF - a virtual museum of thousands of collections.  Such that folks who choose not to share - seem to be a mysterious breed.  

[vodou]

4 hours ago, Panelfan1 said:

What other art collecting hobbies are made as public as ours?  At the centre of that is CAF - a virtual museum of thousands of collections.

I'm not aware of any other art categories being collected as publicly (or as organized) as comic art via comicartfans.com. There's tons of old flickr accounts and the like out there and now it's FB, instagram, etc where people share their various obsessions, but only in a very "look at me" manner - no organized and central communities...that I'm aware of.

4 hours ago, Panelfan1 said:

Such that folks who choose not to share - seem to be a mysterious breed.  

Not so mysterious to me. And not confined to comic art. I'm not so active these days, and never was doing trade, but that used to be a real problem getting trades done...somebody else knowing what your crown jewels were and only being interested in trading for one or more of them. There could even be a viciousness to it. There's also the general lack of respect for NFS, which really means look but don't touch. The answer for some collectors is if people don't see it, they can't try to buy it. And finally the simple money of it all. Many of us old-schoolers have little cost basis but large unrealized paper gains in our collections, and that can warp perspectives. Consider all the possible reasons that a person, otherwise having a nice, clean but not especially sexy lower middle to middle class income and lifestyle, might not want to blast to the world that they have hundreds or even thousands of 60s-80s covers and interiors by all the (now) big names. I think this is similar to the way most people are uncomfortable discussing their salary with casual acquaintances and keep their tax returns private. Would you tell your friends, neighbors and anybody that's interested all over the world that you keep sacks of gold coins just laying about your (no security system) house? Well...

Another obvious issue can be insurance. First off, taking our fellow previously that may be supporting a family of four on less than 40k/yr...the premium alone on a $1m collection is going to be (using my IIRC on an old CIA rate sheet) 2% or around 20k. Nearly half that dude's pre-tax! So that's not going to happen. Just identifying one's self and rough assets to an insurer...puts it all "out there" in whatever databases that information can and will migrate to. And the weak link in the chain is now their security implementation, not yours.

[Panelfan1]

You make some great points @vodou.  Until now, I just assumed everyone on here was loaded.

Wanted to clarify my point too:

My point/observation was that in other art collecting fields there is naturally more secrecy simply because there is no popular public forum like CAF. So in those collecting categories,  collectors and their collections are not as widely known by their fellow hobbiests.

[vodou]

1 hour ago, Panelfan1 said:

You make some great points @vodou.  Until now, I just assumed everyone on here was loaded.

Wanted to clarify my point too:

My point/observation was that in other art collecting fields there is naturally more secrecy simply because there is no popular public forum like CAF. So in those collecting categories,  collectors and their collections are not as widely known by their fellow hobbiests.

Thanks. One interesting aspect to my old money* of the hobby theory is that it's self-healing (as to hidden collections, etc).

Over the next twenty years (cue Gene!) pretty much all those hoarded unrealized paper capital gains will become realized. The art will sell (three Ds, if for no other reason) and new present value cost basis will be established with the new owner. We already see this happening at every HA, (now) ComicConnect, and to a lesser extent CLink...low basis old money hoards are being distributed that can never (realistically) be put back together again (at today's prices). Less concentrated value = less value related concerns. The trade hostage aspect...dunno how that plays out. Typically when money is loose and art is tight, you get a lot more things listed as trade only, at least in the past. Money is certainly loose these days but I don't see a plethora of trade only, maybe the dealers are also art rich, cash poor? Seems all the real gemstones end up at auction. For cash. Anyway, I think this widespread de-hoarding distribution will mean more art shown publicly on CAF (or wherever, let's not assume CAF is the only venue go-fo) overall over time. Not to mention it's mostly the old guys (dying off every day) that aren't as comfortable with putting all their (so-called) private info "out there" or using web-based community sites.

*art rich, cash poor

[ESeffinga]

That's a pretty good assessment for that mindset. Personally I'd be less inclined to worry about someone breaking into my house to steal my whole stash of comic art, as the impact knowing my collection's value would have on potential negotiations on new art. As you say art rich, cash poor may not enter into the mindset of the other party. Just the idea that the collector has the means if they really want to go to the wall for something they are truly interested in.

And as for the habit of people choosing their words carefully (in public, and on forums), seeing as how everything is recorded and/or available these days forever, or near to, it's probably not a bad idea to be choosey in how one phrases things. I've often said becareful what bridges you are willing to burn in this hobby, as it really is a small market. And sometimes I think that plays to our detriment, as people are reticent to speak up about things for fear that one day the person they are mess-talking will be the guy with their grail piece, or some must-have bit of art.

At the same time, I've seen my own attitudes change about certain people in the hobby as the years have gone on, and I'd be really bummed if things I might have said about them 10-20 years ago as a more naive collector colored the way they thought of me today. I can think of specific examples.

There is a fairly well known collector , who ended up with a piece of art I was actively pursuing around... I can't recall the year it turned up. Might have been 98 or something? Anyway, I contacted the dealer about it and he suggested I come out to SDCC that year to complete the deal. I told him I couldn't do it that year because of pre-existing plans, but we discussed my buying the piece. I thought the deal was struck, and was just waiting for the shipping cost to send the funds. Anyway, the dealer took the piece to SD and sold it there. When I flipped out on the phone, he told me I should have come to SD. Oh, I was pissed. I held a grudge for near 2 decades. Never spoke to the dealer, and didn't know who the buyer was, but I was angry. Years later, and I'm on much better terms with the dealer that sold the piece out from under me. We've chatted a bit over the years, and I quite like the guy. And have come to understand the quirkiness of the way he does business. He has his reasons. And the collector that bought the piece, well I consider him a friend, even though we've yet to be in a room together. We know a lot of the same people, and share a great many other things in common. I'm sure I said things in those early years that might have soured the possibility of a relationship today. Not business relationships, but an actual friendship. And that would be a much bigger loss than losing out on that art.

 

Maybe. 

 

 

[SquareChaos]

2 hours ago, Panelfan1 said:

Until now, I just assumed everyone on here was loaded.

Wait, what? You're not a member of the landed gentry? Do you.... work... for a living?! The Cabal will hear of this.

 

[Panelfan1]

13 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

Wait, what? You're not a member of the landed gentry? Do you.... work... for a living?! The Cabal will hear of this.

 

Sorry to say I am not the guy with the hat that everyone was so chatty about in the other thread! 

God save the queen.

[SquareChaos]

1 minute ago, Panelfan1 said:

Sorry to say I am not the guy with the hat that everyone was so chatty about in the other thread! 

God save the queen.

Joking aside, I often have the same feeling you described - art with hefty price tags gets tossed around here so often, the only thing that makes sense is a high percentage of wealthy people are active in the hobby, or a bunch of people rode a wave of appreciating art. I tend to believe some of the first, but more of the second. 

[delekkerste]

6 hours ago, vodou said:

Another obvious issue can be insurance. First off, taking our fellow previously that may be supporting a family of four on less than 40k/yr...the premium alone on a $1m collection is going to be (using my IIRC on an old CIA rate sheet) 2% or around 20k. Nearly half that dude's pre-tax! 

Obviously insurance rates are going to vary somewhat on location, security, area-specific risks, type of collectible, etc.  And, I'm guessing that the more you bid, the more it's worth, uh, I mean, the more you insure, the greater the rate breaks you receive.  

I'm paying CIA roughly one-quarter of one percent for my annual policy.  It may be a higher rate on a policy of ("only") $1 million, but, I'm guessing that we're talking about an annual premium somewhere in the $3K range, plus or minus $500, not $20K.

[AnkurJ]

30 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Obviously insurance rates are going to vary somewhat on location, security, area-specific risks, type of collectible, etc.  And, I'm guessing that the more you bid, the more it's worth, uh, I mean, the more you insure, the greater the rate breaks you receive.  

I'm paying CIA roughly one-quarter of one percent for my annual policy.  It may be a higher rate on a policy of ("only") $1 million, but, I'm guessing that we're talking about an annual premium somewhere in the $3K range, plus or minus $500, not $20K.

My policy with collect insure costs about the same. I may have to file a claim soon so we will see how that goes....

[PhilipB2k17]

Old time OA collectors are like a couple that bought a townhome in the Mission district of San Francisco in the 1970's, and is now sitting on a property value gold mine.

[Brian Peck]

5 hours ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

Old time OA collectors are like a couple that bought a townhome in the Mission district of San Francisco in the 1970's, and is now sitting on a property value gold mine.

But if they sell and want something similar will cost about the same either house or OA.

[vodou]

8 hours ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

Old time OA collectors are like a couple that bought a townhome in the Mission district of San Francisco in the 1970's, and is now sitting on a property value gold mine.

 

2 hours ago, Brian Peck said:

But if they sell and want something similar will cost about the same either house or OA.

Exactly. The only out is moving to TX or FL and banking the difference. And that's how I ended up in fine art

[PhilipB2k17]

12 hours ago, Brian Peck said:

But if they sell and want something similar will cost about the same either house or OA.

Yes. But they will have the cash or trade to get the new house/OA

[vodou]

1 hour ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

Yes. But they will have the cash or trade to get the new house/OA

This goes back to a previous discussion - how are ongoing and continuous near top and topping, not to mention higher high final numbers being funded?

1. old comic art money being rotated out and right back in (no net new money in)

2. comic collectors selling down that stuff and rotating into comic art (no net new money in, I'd argue though some would disagree)

3. newly minted collectors coming from the outside with deep pockets and expensive tastes

IIRC you lean toward #3 being the predominant force in setting prices, while I think it's mostly #1 and #2, with #3 being a minority (and not 49% either!) but still in there.

[Panelfan1]

One thing to comsider is that you might need new collectors to buy what the old collectors are selling. Not just high end stuff - but anything and everything.  

I wonder if @Nexus or @romitaman could chime in - how many of your customers are new to the hobby? Or is it the same folks over and over?  

Personally - I became active in the hobby about 4 years ago. I see new folks on CAF all the time.  Yes we all naturally collected comics at some point in the past - but that past could be a while back.

Also for many the path into collecting art started with convention sketches. As it did for me.  That is new art - not recycled art - and therefore possible new money into the hobby.  

[PhilipB2k17]

1 hour ago, vodou said:

This goes back to a previous discussion - how are ongoing and continuous near top and topping, not to mention higher high final numbers being funded?

1. old comic art money being rotated out and right back in (no net new money in)

2. comic collectors selling down that stuff and rotating into comic art (no net new money in, I'd argue though some would disagree)

3. newly minted collectors coming from the outside with deep pockets and expensive tastes

IIRC you lean toward #3 being the predominant force in setting prices, while I think it's mostly #1 and #2, with #3 being a minority (and not 49% either!) but still in there.

I'd say #2 is definitely new  money in the hobby. Because that's basically me. I wasn't an OA collector (although I had ONE piece I bought many years ago), until a couple of years ago. But I was a comics guy. I now only buy new comics because I am interesting in modern OA, and want to see all the new arts and artists, and enjoy the books.

My whole argument about this hobby is that Gene (and others) are absolutely right about the larger demographic trends. But, this hobby is so small that it only takes a few new big hitters to keep prices propped up. Think of it like Boxing. The overall audience for boxing has dramatically declined. Baseball too. Yet, they keep paying larger and larger prizes, or salaries, and baseball teams become more and more valuable. For baeball, there are only so many major league teams. It only takes a few who want to buy one to keep prices propped up.

[BCarter27]

35 minutes ago, Panelfan1 said:

Also for many the path into collecting art started with convention sketches. As it did for me.  That is new art - not recycled art - and therefore possible new money into the hobby.

This is a great point. The sketches and commissions side of OA is very healthy -- perhaps due to the increased social media interactions with artists and the rise of talented, non-published amateurs. This might be the most prominent gateway drug to buying published OA in the future -- replacing the formerly-typical comic collecting convert. They'll read digitally, interact with creators on social media, go to cons (maybe in cosplay), buy a print, then a sketch, then a page from a rep, then a splash, then a cover.

Hopefully, this trend continues. For the hobby to stay healthy, we don't need 10-15 people buying six-figure pieces. We need 10000-15000 people buying 4-figure pieces.

[SquareChaos]

51 minutes ago, Panelfan1 said:

One thing to comsider is that you might need new collectors to buy what the old collectors are selling. Not just high end stuff - but anything and everything.  

I wonder if @Nexus or @romitaman could chime in - how many of your customers are new to the hobby? Or is it the same folks over and over?  

Personally - I became active in the hobby about 4 years ago. I see new folks on CAF all the time.  Yes we all naturally collected comics at some point in the past - but that past could be a while back.

Also for many the path into collecting art started with convention sketches. As it did for me.  That is new art - not recycled art - and therefore possible new money into the hobby.  

Not to speak for him, but I have a related comment... but I have seen Felix comment on this in the past. I sort of expected that he and other modern reps may have an 80/20 thing going on, where a core group of customers bought 80% of his stock (I know I see a few CAF names over and over again), but if I recall, surprisingly, that wasn't the case. I think he also said he sees a good deal of European buyers. When you're new to the hobby, or from the outside looking in, it seems like this whole house of cards might topple if a few percent of the total 'interested parties' get out, but the more I learn the more surprised I am at the seemingly wider-than-anticipated net of interest.

Keep in mind I'm talking about 'new' art - for the higher dollar pieces from earlier eras, I'm far from an expert, but just as a numbers game it seems far more rickety to me when you consider the cost of entry at current market... that has been discussed very deeply in a number of threads, some of them pretty recent.