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STAR WARS : Episode VIII December 15, 2017
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1,799 posts in this topic

2 hours ago, Rip said:

Star Wars wasn't released nationally when it first came out at the theaters it opened in only 32 theaters and only 40 opening weekend.

Nor did everyone know about it right away. You can't really compare them like that.

The release of Star WArs in 1977 was quite different.  It wasn't a smash hit overnight.

I remember when Star Wars came to our city. However ESB I was there opening night.

yeah you can, because by the 2nd week in the theater it had exploded into a cultural phenomenon and 1750 screens within a few weeks. Empire strikes back was only in 126 theaters when it opened as well,  it took 6 weeks for it to be in over 1000 theaters.
ANH beats ESB because it had more weeks/chances for people to go see the film. For ESB they decided to cut showings after 3 months and get ready for the next.

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1 hour ago, zhamlau said:

yeah you can, because by the 2nd week in the theater it had exploded into a cultural phenomenon and 1750 screens within a few weeks. Empire strikes back was only in 126 theaters when it opened as well,  it took 6 weeks for it to be in over 1000 theaters.
ANH beats ESB because it had more weeks/chances for people to go see the film. For ESB they decided to cut showings after 3 months and get ready for the next.

This is completely incorrect. It didn't reach 1750 theaters until 7/21 1978. But Empire did start with 126. reaching 823 by week 5 and 1089 by week 9. Star Wars had 360 on week 5 and 843 by week 9. Again if you are judging the first 4 months the dynamics are very different.

Weeks 5-8 over 800 ESB

9 1,089

10 1,278

11 1,139

12 1,074

 

Weeks 5-8 SW 360, 452, 589, 757

9 843

10, 950,

11 1,044

12 1,195

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-IV-A-New-Hope#tab=box-office

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-V-The-Empire-Strikes-Back#tab=box-office

Edited by Rip
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Ok, did some number reviews. Its sorta hard because of how the data is truncated (or just missing) but....

       
Movie Total Ticket Sales per 12 weeks    Total Theater Weeks   Revenue per Theater/week
ANH $107,122,524 6280 17,057
ESB $141,572,707 8713 16,248
     
       

Over a 12 week period when you fill in the missing gaps with the previous theater showing totals, ESB  was shown on 8209 screen weeks (how many weeks the film was on an individual movie screen). some weeks it was only 126 theaters showing it. Some weeks it was 1195.

Over a 12 week period when you fill in the missing gaps with the previous theater showing totals, ANH was shown on 6194 screen weeks (how many weeks the film was on an individual movie screen). some weeks it was only 32 theaters showing it. Some weeks it was 1074.

Basically, ESB got 20% more chances over 12 weeks and with those chances it brought in 30% more income. If you took that 20% off its total, it still out performs ANH unless I'm missing some major here.

ESB appears to have done better all things being equal over its run than ANH and I think the numbers here show that.

That means that the first star was sequel, which was was not only better than the first but actually a great movie in its own right, outperformed the first movie. In the 2nd and third trilogies the sequel was either slightly or greatly inferior to its lead in movie, and it did worse. I think that's the lesson to take from this.

 

If you make a bad movie the fans hate, they wont go see it and will be less likely to support future endeavors of the brand. If you make good movies fans love, they will go see it multiple times and will be more likely to support future endeavors of the brand. TLJ only has its production to thank for its failings IMO.

 

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22 hours ago, zhamlau said:

Ok, did some number reviews. Its sorta hard because of how the data is truncated (or just missing) but....

       
Movie Total Ticket Sales per 12 weeks    Total Theater Weeks   Revenue per Theater/week
ANH $107,122,524 6280 17,057
ESB $141,572,707 8713 16,248
     
       

Over a 12 week period when you fill in the missing gaps with the previous theater showing totals, ESB  was shown on 8209 screen weeks (how many weeks the film was on an individual movie screen). some weeks it was only 126 theaters showing it. Some weeks it was 1195.

Over a 12 week period when you fill in the missing gaps with the previous theater showing totals, ANH was shown on 6194 screen weeks (how many weeks the film was on an individual movie screen). some weeks it was only 32 theaters showing it. Some weeks it was 1074.

Basically, ESB got 20% more chances over 12 weeks and with those chances it brought in 30% more income. If you took that 20% off its total, it still out performs ANH unless I'm missing some major here.

ESB appears to have done better all things being equal over its run than ANH and I think the numbers here show that.

That means that the first star was sequel, which was was not only better than the first but actually a great movie in its own right, outperformed the first movie. In the 2nd and third trilogies the sequel was either slightly or greatly inferior to its lead in movie, and it did worse. I think that's the lesson to take from this.

 

If you make a bad movie the fans hate, they wont go see it and will be less likely to support future endeavors of the brand. If you make good movies fans love, they will go see it multiple times and will be more likely to support future endeavors of the brand. TLJ only has its production to thank for its failings IMO.

 

As I mentioned before Star Wars was not an overnight success and it continued to bring people back month after month year after year. With far longer staying power.

Empire Strikes Back was not limited to a 3 month release like you previously mentioned.  The problem was it couldn’t hold on to the theaters like Star Wars could over the longer haul on rereleases. Quite often Star Wars was going to have a more limited rerelease but instead was pushed out because of continued success.

Star Wars went on to gross another $102 million after week 13

ESB went on to gross another $38 million after week 13 in its first run.

In the first year Star Wars made $215 million vs ESB’s $181 million Now still thats not very far apart when you first look at it.

Then you start to factor in the rereleases...In its first 1978 rerelease Star Wars made another 17 million with a total of $228. ESB’s first 1981 rerelease made another $26 million for a total of $209.

In 1979 Star Wars had another strong rerelease and continued over the next few years to gross another $72 million until its next rerelease in 82 where it grossed another 47 million

ESB's 82 re-release made another $11

So before the Special Editions it was roughly $323 vs EMB $222 

Star Wars total before Empire $307(Unadjusted)
Empire total Before Jedi $222 (Unadjusted)

On Star Wars rerelease in 97 (The Special edition added another $102)
ESB added $68 

Star Wars final was $460 vs $290 ESB and when you look at Adjusted dollars its $1.635 million vs $901 million from ESB. That’s 55.1% 

What a lot of people don't know is that if you use adjusted dollar value ESB did better than ROTJ $901 vs $863 million

So again you can't just grab the first 12 weeks you're not always going to get a good picture. Especially on older films in the top adjusted dollar all time list. There's other factors as well like stronger marketing and pre movie awareness. 2 things that really didn't factor into the The Last Jedi and The Force Awakens since they are both already at an ultra high peak.

Looking at Day 1 The Last Jedi made around 82.5% adjusted of TFA, so I don't see how this movie was going to do better. Per theater it was 85% and per theater adjusted its around 81%.
The Last Jedi will end up doing around 64% of TFA adjusted. 

 

 

Edited by Rip
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Id also add there is information showing that this isn't disliked nearly as much as you think.

IMDB 7.5/10 308,832 votes

Cinemascore: A

Survey Monkey: 89% 4,441 votes

Fandango: 56,591 fan ratings 4 stars out of 5

Comscore/Screen Engine: 89% 

Variety Magazine: Which movie do you like better

Last Jedi 53.77%  (4,490 votes)
Force Awakens 46.23% at (3,861 votes)
Total Votes: 8,351

RT: 48% 181,983

Metacritic User Score: 4.5 out of 10 6,400

 

If you have any other polling I'd be happy to add it.

Edited by Rip
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All sites I can find only give it as a 4 month run on ESB and give those numbers.  I can only go by the numbers shown and when you look at the numbers of screens based on first Major Runs and its box office, ESB destroys ANH. Also ESB and its re release came on the advent of cable TV and Video sales/rentals. Star Wars had neither for competitors and existed before the entire wave of sci-fi programing came out on its piggy back diluting the market. What factors they played its hard to say, but i'm sure those factors are baked into the overall box office.

As for reviews, I think its clear Rotten Tomatoes is the most unabridged fan review site there is. I go on theirs

Rotten Tomatoes: ESB 97%   TLJ 48%

 

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1 hour ago, zhamlau said:

All sites I can find only give it as a 4 month run on ESB and give those numbers.  I can only go by the numbers shown and when you look at the numbers of screens based on first Major Runs and its box office, ESB destroys ANH. Also ESB and its re release came on the advent of cable TV and Video sales/rentals. Star Wars had neither for competitors and existed before the entire wave of sci-fi programing came out on its piggy back diluting the market. What factors they played its hard to say, but i'm sure those factors are baked into the overall box office.

As for reviews, I think its clear Rotten Tomatoes is the most unabridged fan review site there is. I go on theirs

Rotten Tomatoes: ESB 97%   TLJ 48%

 

The numbers are incomplete on many sites. But you can put together that Empire went on to gross another 38 million after week 13 in its first run.  So we know by looking at weekly totals it had to be there longer than only 3 more weeks. https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-V-The-Empire-Strikes-Back#tab=box-office

The longest theater EMB engagement of the was first run was at 61 weeks.

http://cinematreasures.org/blog/2010/5/21/happy-30th-empire

Also Star Wars came out in 82 on VHS (and Cable TV) Empire didn't come out until 84. BattleStar came out in 78, Buck Rodgers 79
Even with that Star Wars continued to beat outpace Empire with the 82 rerelease, the special editions and all home media sales.

Yea its clear Rotten Tomatoes an outliner. 

Edited by Rip
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1 hour ago, Rip said:

The numbers are incomplete on many sites. But you can put together that Empire went on to gross another 38 million after week 13 in its first run.  So we know by looking at weekly totals it had to be there longer than only 3 more weeks. https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-V-The-Empire-Strikes-Back#tab=box-office

The longest theater EMB engagement of the was first run was at 61 weeks.

http://cinematreasures.org/blog/2010/5/21/happy-30th-empire

Also Star Wars came out in 82 on VHS (and Cable TV) Empire didn't come out until 84. BattleStar came out in 78, Buck Rodgers 79
Even with that Star Wars continued to beat outpace Empire with the 82 rerelease, the special editions and all home media sales.

Yea its clear Rotten Tomatoes an outliner. 

Again, im going off numbers we can find. Empire had a 4 month traditional run. I compared like to like, Empire won. For staying power ill totally give it to ANH. But ANH won due to it just staying out there longer.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=starwars4.htm

By the numbers we can see on BOM its shows consistent diminishing returns week after week for 1977 uninterrupted. Heck, if you ran the movie for a year straight they sent you the birthday cake poster (which is pretty rare now, sells for a lot). Empire didnt get that advantage. I only want to compare first runs because thats all AOTC and TLJ have had/will have. If we are trying to find trends, I think the trend is only for bad sequels. Good ones hold their own or surpass on even playing fields.

 

as for fan review, Rotten Tomatoes is closer to democracy then republic, all voices equal. Its filled with people who felt the urge to reply. I find it to be the best option for getting honest fan reaction. Its the most popular fan review site, and i feel the most honest. Rotten Tomatoes gets 82 million uniques to Meta's 32 million. Also Rotten is the 2nd most popular English speaking site for movies, and the highest ranking site for Movie reviews (IMDB offers reviews as a function but its not its primary purpose). I trust that sites user reviews the most because of it. They say it sucks, I cant argue with that.

https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/category/arts-and-entertainment/movies

 

 

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16 minutes ago, zhamlau said:

Again, im going off numbers we can find. Empire had a 4 month traditional run. I compared like to like, Empire won. For staying power ill totally give it to ANH. But ANH won due to it just staying out there longer.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekly&id=starwars4.htm

By the numbers we can see on BOM its shows consistent diminishing returns week after week for 1977 uninterrupted. Heck, if you ran the movie for a year straight they sent you the birthday cake poster (which is pretty rare now, sells for a lot). Empire didnt get that advantage. I only want to compare first runs because thats all AOTC and TLJ have had/will have. If we are trying to find trends, I think the trend is only for bad sequels. Good ones hold their own or surpass on even playing fields.

 

as for fan review, Rotten Tomatoes is closer to democracy then republic, all voices equal. Its filled with people who felt the urge to reply. I find it to be the best option for getting honest fan reaction. Its the most popular fan review site, and i feel the most honest. Rotten Tomatoes gets 82 million uniques to Meta's 32 million. Also Rotten is the 2nd most popular English speaking site for movies, and the highest ranking site for Movie reviews (IMDB offers reviews as a function but its not its primary purpose). I trust that sites user reviews the most because of it. They say it sucks, I cant argue with that.

https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/category/arts-and-entertainment/movies

 

 

 

Box Office Mojo is just repeating the same numbers I mentioned in my previous post. Yea that cake poster is tough to get.

Web hits or not when you look at polls you need to take from various sources not just rely on one. IMDB is know for its far larger FAN review base with over double RT's.  For example Last Jedi has 308,832 votes to RT's 181,000 Force Awakens 226 vs 725K. RT also doesn't require you to see the movie unlike Cinemascore or Comscore. 

Edited by Rip
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1 minute ago, Rip said:

 

Box Office Mojo is just repeating the same numbers I mentioned in my previous post.

Web hits or not when you look at polls you need to take from various sources not just rely on one. IMDB is know for its far larger FAN review base with over double RT's.  For example Last Jedi has 308,832 votes to RT's 181,000 Force Awakens 226 vs 725K. RT also doesn't require you to see the movie unlike Cinemascore or Comscore.

Fair enough, we can agree to disagree I guess and move on.

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On 2/7/2018 at 2:51 AM, Rip said:

Id also add there is information showing that this isn't disliked nearly as much as you think.

IMDB 7.5/10 308,832 votes

Cinemascore: A

Survey Monkey: 89% 4,441 votes

Fandango: 56,591 fan ratings 4 stars out of 5

Comscore/Screen Engine: 89% 

Variety Magazine: Which movie do you like better

Last Jedi 53.77%  (4,490 votes)
Force Awakens 46.23% at (3,861 votes)
Total Votes: 8,351

RT: 48% 181,983

Metacritic User Score: 4.5 out of 10 6,400

 

If you have any other polling I'd be happy to add it.

7.5 isn't great for a modern blockbuster on IMDB. If the movie is popular, the movie will have an inflated rating for months. For TLJ to already be under 8.0 isn't a great number  for a movie that's been out for less than two months. It will probably fall under 7.0 within a few months. That's prequel territory, except for Revenge of the Sith, which already has a higher IMDB number than TLJ.

 

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1 hour ago, Larryw7 said:

7.5 isn't great for a modern blockbuster on IMDB. If the movie is popular, the movie will have an inflated rating for months. For TLJ to already be under 8.0 isn't a great number  for a movie that's been out for less than two months. It will probably fall under 7.0 within a few months. That's prequel territory, except for Revenge of the Sith, which already has a higher IMDB number than TLJ.

 

Its not bad. It's same as Spider-man Homecoming, better than many Marvel movies and tied with Wonder Woman.  The 2nd Cap movie is only 7.7.

Its been 7.5 for weeks after some 1 star bombing. Its no secret its made a small group of hardcore fans angry.

But I guess we'll see in 6 months.

Also there are many other review polls to choose from with far better results.

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On 2/9/2018 at 7:30 AM, I like pie said:

Absolutely agree(thumbsu

TLJ feels a little like that old video of that kid who just got out of the dentist office and still doped up:

"Is this real life?":ohnoez:

Giving us Solo and Kenobi will make up for it. Solo is in the can, hopefully its good. Kenobi could be a chance for the only two great actors in the PT to redeem themselves and give us something amazing.

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On 2/7/2018 at 2:51 AM, Rip said:

Id also add there is information showing that this isn't disliked nearly as much as you think.

IMDB 7.5/10 308,832 votes

Cinemascore: A

Survey Monkey: 89% 4,441 votes

Fandango: 56,591 fan ratings 4 stars out of 5

Comscore/Screen Engine: 89% 

Variety Magazine: Which movie do you like better

Last Jedi 53.77%  (4,490 votes)
Force Awakens 46.23% at (3,861 votes)
Total Votes: 8,351

RT: 48% 181,983

Metacritic User Score: 4.5 out of 10 6,400

 

If you have any other polling I'd be happy to add it.

This.

The "angry fanbase" has been shown to be largely an outlier from unverified accounts on Rotten Tomatoes only -- and ones that don't jibe with user ratings from Fandango, Cinemascore, Comscore or IMDB.

Why does this matter?

Cinemascore polls folks as they are exiting the film; Fandango and Comscore require you to have seen the film.

While IMDB does not, they are _far_ more stringent about the data they collect, because they sell that data to their paying subscribers.

Rotten Tomatoes, on the other hand, requires only 15 seconds of sign-in by an anonymous poster. It is the easiest to manipulate -- especially versus the other outlets cited.

And studios also use this to their advantage -- for instance, hiring firms to spam movies with positive User ratings before they are even released.

 

Not saying that a chunk of fanboys weren't pissed off by this movie, but rather that -- good or bad -- Rotten Tomatoes user ratings are notoriously bad indicators of anything.

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Cinema score also gave pitch perfect 3, Peter Rabbit, Attack of the Clones, and The Phantom Menace A- grades....notice a pattern there? Heck even Suicide Squad got a B+ from them...Their a marketing firm. Nothing on their most recent site list has anything below a "C".  Everything is just ok to Amazing according to them. It has the same issue as comscore, another marketing firm. As they explain it, they go into a theater and review people right as they are walking out happy to have seen a movie, hence their reviews are generally positive. Take them how you will.

That's why I like Rotten Tomatoes.  Everyone knows its for reviews and uses it as such and not just a small function of its purpose like IMDB's reviews are. You don't have to qualify your answer, and no fear of reprisal or being made to feel uncomfortable if you don't give something a good review. Since everything can have bias or manipulation going into it, I'm ok with Rotten. Ive found nearly on point i agree with most audience reviews on that site.

 

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Well, looks like similar manipulation goes on with IMDB as well.

See this article - apparently members of the Alt-Right are trying to tank Black Panther's score, just as fans are trying to artificially boost it -- even though it's yet to be released.

More than 8,000 people have voted so far, yet preview screenings didn't start until today -- in Europe.

http://comicbook.com/marvel/2018/02/09/black-panther-reviews-sabotage-imdb-score/

 

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