What's up with X-Force #1? 1 1

[Aweandlorder]

13 minutes ago, Broke as a Joke said:

Regardless of the print run.  (5 million is what I have seen quoted for this book in various places.)  If it was 2.5 million and even 1 out of 50 copies in existence is a 9.8, that is 50,000 9.8's for all the "Liefeld collectors".  I think that more than meets the quota. 

Thats why we see people here suggests that its never wise to relate to print run or 1:x ratios when it comes to any book.

Its always demand and whats currently available.

Any idjut can speculate on the availability of X-Force 1 and assume it has no value. Yet the current status quo suggests otherwise.

My assumption is that there are probably alot more pre-screen rejects for this book than census numbers show. A WHOLE lot

Just going by what I PERSONALLY have seen in my inventory, and what the previous facebook example I attached demonstrates, and what the census reflects, a 9.8 is not a common find 

Will this change?

Lets wait and see

But oh just remember, thats what people said a year ago

[I like pie]

1 hour ago, Broke as a Joke said:

Regardless of the print run.  (5 million is what I have seen quoted for this book in various places.)  If it was 2.5 million and even 1 out of 50 copies in existence is a 9.8, that is 50,000 9.8's for all the "Liefeld collectors".  I think that more than meets the quota. 

I would estimate I have gone through 3,000-3500 of these in 10+ years. Out of those, I have found about 40-45 9.8 candidates. Out of those, I have gotten a total of 3 that passed 9.8 pre screen.

I do hope more come out now. I don't collect newstand books, so that's why I sold these. 

Another popped up(white cap UPC) on ebay right after I sold mine but that's the same ebay user ID that purchased my newstand one.

Edited October 19, 2017 by I like pie

[SquareChaos]

1 hour ago, Aweandlorder said:

Thats why we see people here suggests that its never wise to relate to print run or 1:x ratios when it comes to any book.

Its always demand and whats currently available.

Any idjut can speculate on the availability of X-Force 1 and assume it has no value. Yet the current status quo suggests otherwise.

My assumption is that there are probably alot more pre-screen rejects for this book than census numbers show. A WHOLE lot

Just going by what I PERSONALLY have seen in my inventory, and what the previous facebook example I attached demonstrates, and what the census reflects, a 9.8 is not a common find 

Will this change?

Lets wait and see

But oh just remember, thats what people said a year ago

Everyone here has mostly assumptions and confirmation bias... what the world runs on unfortunately. The one thing that we're sure about is that there sure are a lot of these books out there. As you say, time will tell if this is another ASM 300 high copy book that holds value, or if it is a flash in the pan, here today, gone tomorrow.

[Mike's Rack]

57 minutes ago, I like pie said:

I would estimate I have gone through 3,000-3500 of these in 10+ years. Out of those, I have found about 40-45 9.8 candidates. Out of those, I have gotten a total of 3 that passed 9.8 pre screen.

I do hope more come out now. I don't collect newstand books, so that's why I sold these. 

Another popped up(white cap UPC) on ebay right after I sold mine but that's the same ebay user ID that purchased my newstand one.

This has been similar to my experience as well, though I haven't gone through 3,000 

 

[SquareChaos]

1 hour ago, I like pie said:

I would estimate I have gone through 3,000-3500 of these in 10+ years. Out of those, I have found about 40-45 9.8 candidates. Out of those, I have gotten a total of 3 that passed 9.8 pre screen.

I do hope more come out now. I don't collect newstand books, so that's why I sold these. 

Another popped up(white cap UPC) on ebay right after I sold mine but that's the same ebay user ID that purchased my newstand one.

This would mean something like 2% are 9.8 candidates.

[revat]

31 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

1 hour ago, Aweandlorder said:

Thats why we see people here suggests that its never wise to relate to print run or 1:x ratios when it comes to any book.

Its always demand and whats currently available.

Any idjut can speculate on the availability of X-Force 1 and assume it has no value. Yet the current status quo suggests otherwise.

My assumption is that there are probably alot more pre-screen rejects for this book than census numbers show. A WHOLE lot

Just going by what I PERSONALLY have seen in my inventory, and what the previous facebook example I attached demonstrates, and what the census reflects, a 9.8 is not a common find 

Will this change?

Lets wait and see

But oh just remember, thats what people said a year ago

Everyone here has mostly assumptions and confirmation bias... what the world runs on unfortunately. The one thing that we're sure about is that there sure are a lot of these books out there. As you say, time will tell if this is another ASM 300 high copy book that holds value, or if it is a flash in the pan, here today, gone tomorrow.

The question is not how many copies are out there, but more importantly how many 9.8 copies are out there.  And even more important than that, how many of those copies will be graded?  And even more important than that, can I get my copies graded and sold before the market is saturated or the movie hype dies down?  Of course everyone's opinions and information will differ to some extent, but if I had any copies now or found any in the next 3 months it'd probably be worth it to grade or at least pre-screen.  The other merits can be argued ad naseum, but if just about the benji's I think its safe to pull the trigger.

[I like pie]

15 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

This would mean something like 2% are 9.8 candidates.

It feels that way and scoring two on my last pre screen, I think I am done. I wasn't trying to make money on these. It was more of a fun challenge.

 

I got my white cap UPC and won't sell regardless if it's a 1k or $30 book.

I think there are more black caps out there (debatable), so if anyone manages one of those, pm me!

[SquareChaos]

20 minutes ago, revat said:

The question is not how many copies are out there, but more importantly how many 9.8 copies are out there.  And even more important than that, how many of those copies will be graded?  And even more important than that, can I get my copies graded and sold before the market is saturated or the movie hype dies down?  Of course everyone's opinions and information will differ to some extent, but if I had any copies now or found any in the next 3 months it'd probably be worth it to grade or at least pre-screen.  The other merits can be argued ad naseum, but if just about the benji's I think its safe to pull the trigger.

Sure, but the percentages being tossed around seem unheard of for any other books of that time that I've ever heard of.

Of course, maybe this one is the exception to the rule, I don't know. But even 2% of just 1M (20,000) is more 9.8 slabs than the hobby will likely ever need. The question is, assuming the radically low percentage is even ballpark, who is going to shift through the mountain of books to find them?

[F For Fake]

1 minute ago, SquareChaos said:

Sure, but the percentages being tossed around seem unheard of for any other books of that time that I've ever heard of.

Of course, maybe this one is the exception to the rule, I don't know. But even 2% of just 1M (20,000) is more 9.8 slabs than the hobby will likely ever need. The question is, assuming the radically low percentage is even ballpark, who is going to shift through the mountain of books to find them?

Absolutely agreed. And again, back to my original point, I just don't think this is going to be on most submitter's radar as a book that is worth sending in. Not everyone is nose-deep in census and gpa data. A few folks are going to make some money, it looks like, but I still feel like a lot of folks are going to take a hard pass. Good luck to those of you who are subbing!

[revat]

5 minutes ago, F For Fake said:

7 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

Sure, but the percentages being tossed around seem unheard of for any other books of that time that I've ever heard of.

Of course, maybe this one is the exception to the rule, I don't know. But even 2% of just 1M (20,000) is more 9.8 slabs than the hobby will likely ever need. The question is, assuming the radically low percentage is even ballpark, who is going to shift through the mountain of books to find them?

Absolutely agreed. And again, back to my original point, I just don't think this is going to be on most submitter's radar as a book that is worth sending in. Not everyone is nose-deep in census and gpa data. A few folks are going to make some money, it looks like, but I still feel like a lot of folks are going to take a hard pass. Good luck to those of you who are subbing!

totally agree with all of this.  We're essentially in a circle jerk of PSA's, but there are some people on these boards who have or have access to ridiculous troves of comics, many, many of which may be huge inventories of speculative 90's comics (the same people likely hoarding the Darkhawks I need).  They might benefit from checking their x-force 1 cache

Edited October 19, 2017 by revat

[Aweandlorder]

If I had a few x-forces which were 9.8 worthy right now I'd sub em. It's more of a matter of being lazy now than anything. I wanted to do this 6 months ago but just thought by now we'll be swamped with 9.8s because of previous passionate debates about this topic.

Knowing what I know today I think it's time for me to dig the old boxes out

[RockMyAmadeus]

The "5 million copy print run" is what Liefeld has been claiming for years, so it's natural that that "number" would trickle into a number of different sources...but they all come back to Liefeld. 

The number in the press at the time was 1.75 to 2.5 million. 5 million would have put it over (the later) Superman #75, and Superman #75 has long been touted as "the second best selling comic book of all time" after X-Men #1 with its ~8 million print run. And nothing in comics history compares to Superman #75.

If X-Force #1 HAD had a 5 million print run, it would have been shouted from the rooftops at the time...and, more importantly, Marvel wouldn't have done a second printing, because they would have had plenty of first printings left over.

I have 80 copies that I bought "wholesale" from a local store...Clay's Comics in Hayward, CA...and all 80 copies are still in the 5 packs that Clay made up for me the day they came out over 26 years ago.

Not a single one of them are 9.8, but there are many 9.8 potentials. 

[revat]

10 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

The "5 million copy print run" is what Liefeld has been claiming for years, so it's natural that that "number" would trickle into a number of different sources...but they all come back to Liefeld. 

The number in the press at the time was 1.75 to 2.5 million. 5 million would have put it over (the later) Superman #75, and Superman #75 has long been touted as "the second best selling comic book of all time" after X-Men #1 with its ~8 million print run. And nothing in comics history compares to Superman #75.

If X-Force #1 HAD had a 5 million print run, it would have been shouted from the rooftops at the time...and, more importantly, Marvel wouldn't have done a second printing, because they would have had plenty of first printings left over.

I have 80 copies that I bought "wholesale" from a local store...Clay's Comics in Hayward, CA...and all 80 copies are still in the 5 packs that Clay made up for me the day they came out over 26 years ago.

Not a single one of them are 9.8, but there are many 9.8 potentials. 

the question with you as with many others on the boards and out in the world is whether or not you will take the time to find the copies, break them out of sealed bags, press, submit, and attempt to sell them? 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Just now, revat said:

the question with you as with many others on the boards and out in the world is whether or not you will take the time to find the copies, break them out of sealed bags, press, submit, and attempt to sell them? 

Eventually, yes. X-Force #1 has been on my radar for several years now as a 9.8 subbing candidate. I've spoken about it years ago on these boards, when the census was at 8. Frankly, I was shocked that it was selling for so little, considering how the market treats the books around it.

[boomtown]

4 hours ago, Broke as a Joke said:

Regardless of the print run.  (5 million is what I have seen quoted for this book in various places.)  If it was 2.5 million and even 1 out of 50 copies in existence is a 9.8, that is 50,000 9.8's for all the "Liefeld collectors".  I think that more than meets the quota. 

Just going of the Standard Catalog of Comic Books, Capital City sold 806,100 copies. At the time (1991) Capital City was selling an average of 22% of Marvels total orders (per charts in the catalog). Using that data, the book would have sold 3,659,694. Probably somewhere between 3.5-4 million copies total.

I've seen numbers quoting the negative upc code at 20% of the total run. So somewhere around 731,800 of the negative upc & 2,900,000 of the regular upc.

If the numbers hold true, about 2 of every 10 CGC 9.8s should be the negative upc. On ebay, at the moment, there is only 1 cgc 9.8 negative variant shown in the "for sale" or "sold" areas.

Lastly, does CGC not note on the case UPC variants (DC Universe, etc)? If so, why do they not note it on this book.

Edited October 19, 2017 by boomtown

[revat]

1 hour ago, boomtown said:

5 hours ago, Broke as a Joke said:

Regardless of the print run.  (5 million is what I have seen quoted for this book in various places.)  If it was 2.5 million and even 1 out of 50 copies in existence is a 9.8, that is 50,000 9.8's for all the "Liefeld collectors".  I think that more than meets the quota. 

Just going of the Standard Catalog of Comic Books, Capital City sold 806,100 copies. At the time (1991) Capital City was selling an average of 22% of Marvels total orders (per charts in the catalog). Using that data, the book would have sold 3,659,694. Probably somewhere between 3.5-4 million copies total.

I've seen numbers quoting the negative upc code at 20% of the total run. So somewhere around 731,800 of the negative upc & 2,900,000 of the regular upc.

If the numbers hold true, about 2 of every 10 CGC 9.8s should be the negative upc. On ebay, at the moment, there is only 1 cgc 9.8 negative variant shown in the "for sale" or "sold" areas.

Lastly, does CGC not note on the case UPC variants (DC Universe, etc)? If so, why do they not note it on this book.

generally, DCUniverse UPC's have not been labeled as such by CGC.

[500Club]

5 hours ago, I like pie said:

I would estimate I have gone through 3,000-3500 of these in 10+ years. Out of those, I have found about 40-45 9.8 candidates. Out of those, I have gotten a total of 3 that passed 9.8 pre screen.

I do hope more come out now. I don't collect newstand books, so that's why I sold these. 

Another popped up(white cap UPC) on ebay right after I sold mine but that's the same ebay user ID that purchased my newstand one.

With that screening experience, what are the common defects limiting grade?  Or is it mostly driven by polybag seam issues?

[Aweandlorder]

24 minutes ago, 500Club said:

With that screening experience, what are the common defects limiting grade?  Or is it mostly driven by polybag seam issues?

Mine all have a straight color breaking line across the front cover. If you look at most listings online, even those that claim NM copies, you will see that line 

 

[Aweandlorder]

Notice that even though the bag seam is on the back of the book, that dreaded line will appear on the front, such as in the example below

[Aweandlorder]

And now, after looking at so many instances of that dreadful cover, I have to go wash my eyes