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MOST VALUABLE MODERN VARIANTS - THE RANKINGS
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2,250 posts in this topic

11 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Again: it's not "partial information." It's no information. The sales numbers that Diamond reports have absolutely nothing to do with the ordering ratios for retailer incentives. You end up with not just bad"estimates", but worse: fiction, entirely  made up numbers that fool the people who don't know better.

And this would be your opinion.  

Hope you're aware of that.  

-J.

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1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:
1 hour ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Again: it's not "partial information." It's no information. The sales numbers that Diamond reports have absolutely nothing to do with the ordering ratios for retailer incentives. You end up with not just bad"estimates", but worse: fiction, entirely  made up numbers that fool the people who don't know better.

And this would be your opinion.  

Hope you're aware of that.  

-J.

Sure, that's true. It's also true that "2 + 2 = 4" is an opinion...that also happens to be true. It's like trying to figure out how many lures Bob's Fishing Lure company made by using the number of fish caught in the Atlantic during the season. The numbers have nothing to do with each other.

Hope you're aware of that.

-R.

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4 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

And this would be your opinion.  

Hope you're aware of that.  

-J.

Actually it isn't. The ratio number - even if you knew the exact number of books printed has NOTHING to do with the number of the variant being made. It has to do with the number of variants a retailer can get.

To make this simple. I am the publisher of Smegma Man. We have a SUPER DUPER crossover issue #50, where Smegma Man meets up with The Flying Load to fight injustice!

We're going to offer four chase variants on this, a 1:10 cover by some big artist, a 1:25 cover by another big artist, a 1:50 by another big artist and a super special 1:500 with a cover by JACK KIRBY! Amazing, since he's dead!

AND because we're awesome, we're going to tell you EXACTLY what our print run will be - we're going to print 100,000 copies of this bad boy!

OK - how many copies of each variant are we printing? You cannot answer this question, because you don't know the ordering patterns of individual stores.

If ONE store ordered all 100,000 copies, they would get 10000, 4000, 2000, and 200....but you don't know what a store will order.

In this example there would probably be a lot of 1:10s and 1:25s and a smaller amount of 1:50s and a few 1:500s - but you can't possibly make a number of individual copies because you don't know what the ordering pattern is, and you'd have to factor in the number of variants on top of the order.

I have it on pretty good authority that the Jim Lee 1:5000 Batman book had a print run of about 45 - but who knows. Its a mystery. I can tell you that when a store orders 5,000 copies of a book to get the chase variants, DC is your friend.

Edited by FlyingDonut
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1 hour ago, FlyingDonut said:

Actually it isn't. The ratio number - even if you knew the exact number of books printed has NOTHING to do with the number of the variant being made. It has to do with the number of variants a retailer can get.

To make this simple. I am the publisher of Smegma Man. We have a SUPER DUPER crossover issue #50, where Smegma Man meets up with The Flying Load to fight injustice!

We're going to offer four chase variants on this, a 1:10 cover by some big artist, a 1:25 cover by another big artist, a 1:50 by another big artist and a super special 1:500 with a cover by JACK KIRBY! Amazing, since he's dead!

AND because we're awesome, we're going to tell you EXACTLY what our print run will be - we're going to print 100,000 copies of this bad boy!

OK - how many copies of each variant are we printing? You cannot answer this question, because you don't know the ordering patterns of individual stores.

If ONE store ordered all 100,000 copies, they would get 10000, 4000, 2000, and 200....but you don't know what a store will order.

In this example there would probably be a lot of 1:10s and 1:25s and a smaller amount of 1:50s and a few 1:500s - but you can't possibly make a number of individual copies because you don't know what the ordering pattern is, and you'd have to factor in the number of variants on top of the order.

I have it on pretty good authority that the Jim Lee 1:5000 Batman book had a print run of about 45 - but who knows. Its a mystery. I can tell you that when a store orders 5,000 copies of a book to get the chase variants, DC is your friend.

You just made an argument for why a person cannot know EXACTLY how many were printed.  Which is not a claim that anyone has made.

You did not, however, make an argument for why a person still cannot reasonably estimate numbers based on the information he does have.  

You have  merely stated as an opinion why you believe someone should not do that.  

You are entitled to that opinion. 

-J.

Edited by Jaydogrules
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3 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

You just made an argument for why a person cannot know EXACTLY how many were printed.  Which is not a claim that anyone has made.

You did not, however, make an argument for why a person still cannot reasonably estimate numbers based on the information he does have.  

You have  merely stated as an opinion why you believe someone should not do that.  

You are entitled to that opinion. 

-J.

Um, yes I did. There is no way to reasonably estimate numbers because you do not know ordering patterns for stores. You have no idea how many stores ordered the number of items required to obtain the variant - that is not an opinion, that is a fact.

Your method assumes static ordering patterns, which is simply not the case.

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The fact remains that you have no idea how many stores ordered the number of books required, and you cannot extrapolate from the ratio number.

If you want my opinion, my opinion would be that there are many more low number chase variants (1:10, 1:25) in existence for hot books than people believe and many less high number (1:100, 1:1000, etc.) in existence. That would be an opinion.

 

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2 hours ago, FlyingDonut said:

Um, yes I did. There is no way to reasonably estimate numbers because you do not know ordering patterns for stores. You have no idea how many stores ordered the number of items required to obtain the variant - that is not an opinion, that is a fact.

Your method assumes static ordering patterns, which is simply not the case.

Your statement of what is not reasonable is, in fact, a statement of opinion.  

-J.

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40 minutes ago, Foley said:

Did someone say smegma? :shy:

I definitely heard a smegma Ryan, yes. And if I'm mistaken? Well that's just hard cheese.

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5 minutes ago, Foley said:

Of the “Stinking Bishop” variety? 
 

Also, who thought that would be a good name for a cheese?

Indeed. I don't think they thought about the implications Caerphilly enough. 

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10 hours ago, FlyingDonut said:

Actually it isn't. The ratio number - even if you knew the exact number of books printed has NOTHING to do with the number of the variant being made. It has to do with the number of variants a retailer can get.

To make this simple. I am the publisher of Smegma Man. We have a SUPER DUPER crossover issue #50, where Smegma Man meets up with The Flying Load to fight injustice!

We're going to offer four chase variants on this, a 1:10 cover by some big artist, a 1:25 cover by another big artist, a 1:50 by another big artist and a super special 1:500 with a cover by JACK KIRBY! Amazing, since he's dead!

AND because we're awesome, we're going to tell you EXACTLY what our print run will be - we're going to print 100,000 copies of this bad boy!

OK - how many copies of each variant are we printing? You cannot answer this question, because you don't know the ordering patterns of individual stores.

If ONE store ordered all 100,000 copies, they would get 10000, 4000, 2000, and 200....but you don't know what a store will order.

In this example there would probably be a lot of 1:10s and 1:25s and a smaller amount of 1:50s and a few 1:500s - but you can't possibly make a number of individual copies because you don't know what the ordering pattern is, and you'd have to factor in the number of variants on top of the order.

I have it on pretty good authority that the Jim Lee 1:5000 Batman book had a print run of about 45 - but who knows. Its a mystery. I can tell you that when a store orders 5,000 copies of a book to get the chase variants, DC is your friend.

The higher the ratio, the less likely the number of copies distributed is going to align with that proportion of the sales, true. Some stores just don't do the volume to justify ordering enough to get the higher ratio variants

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11 hours ago, FlyingDonut said:

Smegma Man. We have a SUPER DUPER crossover issue #50, where Smegma Man meets up with The Flying Load to fight injustice!

I remember the teaser campaign posters - The Flying Load: Coming Soon.

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42 minutes ago, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

The higher the ratio, the less likely the number of copies distributed is going to align with that proportion of the sales, true. Some stores just don't do the volume to justify ordering enough to get the higher ratio variants

Exactly correct. If there's a 1:1000 variant - just as an example - and 20 stores order 50 copies of the book, the number of 1:1000 variants for those 1000 copies of the regular book will be zero.

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27 minutes ago, Get Marwood & I said:
11 hours ago, FlyingDonut said:

Smegma Man. We have a SUPER DUPER crossover issue #50, where Smegma Man meets up with The Flying Load to fight injustice!

I remember the teaser campaign posters - The Flying Load: Coming Soon.

I admired Smegma Man a lot. A real tough guy who always made a good fist of it, no matter how hard it was. Yeah, he had a lotta spunk. 

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6 hours ago, FlyingDonut said:

The fact remains that you have no idea how many stores ordered the number of books required, and you cannot extrapolate from the ratio number.

If you want my opinion, my opinion would be that there are many more low number chase variants (1:10, 1:25) in existence for hot books than people believe and many less high number (1:100, 1:1000, etc.) in existence. That would be an opinion.

 

When it comes to math, the results are facts. When a book has a high-ratio variant like a 1:10 there MUST be >=10 1:10's for every 1:100 and >= 100 for every 1:1000. The limit of this is every store orders 10 copies and gets a 1:10 no lower ratio variants exist. Like the flying one said, without specific ordering information there is no way to tell how many additional copies exist than what has been sold or is for sale (or in your collection, or ones you know of). In cases where you have to order 10 copies to order as many variants as you want, even those restrictions go out the window.

Edited by PeterPark
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25 minutes ago, Get Marwood & I said:

I admired Smegma Man a lot. A real tough guy who always made a good fist of it, no matter how hard it was. Yeah, he had a lotta spunk. 

He was a little cheesy, however.

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7 minutes ago, FlyingDonut said:

He was a little cheesy, however.

He was. I liked that he took care of his young horse too. Yes, to keep the horse's identity secret, he had to mascarpone.

 

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