MOST VALUABLE MODERN VARIANTS - THE RANKINGS 17 17

[Broke as a Joke]

There is a dealer on ebay that has sold over 50 (probably more) copies of a 1:1000 and 1:2000 book.  I highly doubt he had ordered over 100,000 copies of said book.  Marvel just dumps these on people regardless of ratios.  There is no way to know.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

1 hour ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

See Donut's analysis above. Maybe he's said it in a way that makes more sense to you. 

I'm having no trouble discerning opinions from facts, thanks.

[manetteska]

17 hours ago, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

17 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

That's the entire discussion: how to determine print runs for incentive variants.

No. They're not. You cannot get there from here. They are numbers that have nothing whatsoever to do with each other. "1:X" is a ratio used to order retailer incentives, nothing more.

Some of us can see the value in partial information. Some of us, it seems, cannot.

Comparing one issue's ordering ratio to another is way to compare if one was easier/harder to obtain when placing orders. That's it: how many you had to order to have one sent to you.

Anything further than that to determine number available is not a  best guess; it is just a guess.

This partial information is partial and also not relevant to anything else.

Edited October 17, 2019 by manetteska

[valiantman]

58 minutes ago, PeterPark said:

When a book has a high-ratio variant like a 1:10 there MUST be >=10 1:10's for every 1:100 and >= 100 for every 1:1000. 

Scenario:

There is a 1:10, 1:100, and 1:1000 variant available to retailers for Comic X.

The publisher likes to give away 100 copies of the super-elusive 1:1000 variants to employees and big supporters for their whole product line, not just this one comic title.

The artist on the 1:100 and 1:1000 variants requested two dozen copies each for friends and family, and the publisher made that an even 50 copies each to make the artists happy.

The regular cover sold 150,000 copies and the publisher printed the exact ratios for retailers plus the extras that are described above.

The end result would be:

150,000 regular cover

15,000 1:10 variants

1,550 1:100 variants, that's actually 1:97 (for every 97 regular, there's 1 of the 1:100 variants)

250 1:1000 variants, that's actually 1:600 (for every 600 regular, there's 1 of the 1:1000 variants)

This is perfectly fine because the retailers all had the same method of getting the variants, the employees have another method, the artists have yet another method, and everything together makes up the whole print run.

[FlyingDonut]

45 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Scenario:

There is a 1:10, 1:100, and 1:1000 variant available to retailers for Comic X.

The publisher likes to give away 100 copies of the super-elusive 1:1000 variants to employees and big supporters for their whole product line, not just this one comic title.

The artist on the 1:100 and 1:1000 variants requested two dozen copies each for friends and family, and the publisher made that an even 50 copies each to make the artists happy.

The regular cover sold 150,000 copies and the publisher printed the exact ratios for retailers plus the extras that are described above.

The end result would be:

150,000 regular cover

15,000 1:10 variants

1,550 1:100 variants, that's actually 1:97 (for every 97 regular, there's 1 of the 1:100 variants)

250 1:1000 variants, that's actually 1:600 (for every 600 regular, there's 1 of the 1:1000 variants)

This is perfectly fine because the retailers all had the same method of getting the variants, the employees have another method, the artists have yet another method, and everything together makes up the whole print run.

But that assumes static ordering patterns, which doesn't happen. Your scenario assumes that each store orders the number of variants required to get the 100s or 1000s. If there are 10 little stores that order 100 copies, each will get the 1:100 variant, but no one will get a 1:1000 variant, so that 1,000 of the 150,000 books won't have an associated even ratio number variant. 

[valiantman]

1 minute ago, FlyingDonut said:

49 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Scenario:

There is a 1:10, 1:100, and 1:1000 variant available to retailers for Comic X.

The publisher likes to give away 100 copies of the super-elusive 1:1000 variants to employees and big supporters for their whole product line, not just this one comic title.

The artist on the 1:100 and 1:1000 variants requested two dozen copies each for friends and family, and the publisher made that an even 50 copies each to make the artists happy.

The regular cover sold 150,000 copies and the publisher printed the exact ratios for retailers plus the extras that are described above.

The end result would be:

150,000 regular cover

15,000 1:10 variants

1,550 1:100 variants, that's actually 1:97 (for every 97 regular, there's 1 of the 1:100 variants)

250 1:1000 variants, that's actually 1:600 (for every 600 regular, there's 1 of the 1:1000 variants)

This is perfectly fine because the retailers all had the same method of getting the variants, the employees have another method, the artists have yet another method, and everything together makes up the whole print run.

But that assumes static ordering patterns, which doesn't happen. Your scenario assumes that each store orders the number of variants required to get the 100s or 1000s. If there are 10 little stores that order 100 copies, each will get the 1:100 variant, but no one will get a 1:1000 variant, so that 1,000 of the 150,000 books won't have an associated even ratio number variant. 

Your scenario assumes the publishers bother with exact counts of qualifying orders.  Have you met people from those departments of businesses?  They don't care.   They do the least amount of work possible.  

From the sales we've seen on Diamond, it's very likely that the publishers ship nice round numbers of the variants, with overage for damages, and let the distributor deal with who gets what.  Once there are tons of leftover incentive variants, they have a big sale. 

[FlyingDonut]

Just now, valiantman said:

Your scenario assumes the publishers bother with exact counts of qualifying orders.  Have you met people from those departments of businesses?  They don't care.   They do the least amount of work possible.  

From the sales we've seen on Diamond, it's very likely that the publishers ship nice round numbers of the variants, with overage for damages, and let the distributor deal with who gets what.  Once there are tons of leftover incentive variants, they have a big sale. 

Very fair point.

[Tnexus]

1 hour ago, Broke as a Joke said:

There is a dealer on ebay that has sold over 50 (probably more) copies of a 1:1000 and 1:2000 book.  I highly doubt he had ordered over 100,000 copies of said book.  Marvel just dumps these on people regardless of ratios.  There is no way to know.

Not sure who exactly you're referring to, but there's a few sellers that are notorious shill sellers of these books who bid up and relist until they finally sell it for the price they want. There's one guy I remember figuring out had 5 or 6 high feedback accounts who was doing this. It's easy to tell when you look at the bid history.

[RockMyAmadeus]

3 hours ago, valiantman said:

Your scenario assumes the publishers bother with exact counts of qualifying orders.  Have you met people from those departments of businesses?  They don't care.   They do the least amount of work possible.  

From the sales we've seen on Diamond, it's very likely that the publishers ship nice round numbers of the variants, with overage for damages, and let the distributor deal with who gets what.  Once there are tons of leftover incentive variants, they have a big sale. 

Right. 

As an example, I have one of the earliest ratio incentives (New Avengers #4, 2005) in quantity. I bought them from Wizard. Wizard dumped their variant overstock on eBay in 2007. I have 50+ copies of New Avengers #4, which was a 1:17 variant. According to Comichron, there were an estimated 154,920 units sold that first month. Those 154,920 units, as explained by John Jackson Miller, INCLUDE any variants also sold. That means, for the 50+ copies that I obtained from them, Wizard would have had to purchase 850 copies of the regular issue in the normal course of thing just to qualify for the copies I bought from them in 2007.

But Wizard was NOT a retailer. Wizard did not buy regular new books. So how and where did they get several hundred copies of a retailer incentive?

Answer: they were Wizard, when Wizard still had industry clout, and they simply asked Marvel if they could buy them directly. Marvel prints whatever it wants.

Wizard had several hundred of the #4 incentive variants that they sold, which debunks the "they only print to a case pack" theory. 

There is no way to come up with a theoretical minimum, because we have no idea how many orders qualified.

There is no way to come up with a theoretical maximum, because the publishers have demonstrated, time and again, that they print much more than is necessary to fill orders.

The "International orders are only an additional 10%" is a GUESS.

The math for why the "incentive variant print run estimate based on all copies reported sold" does not work is a little more subtle and complex, but it's not impossible, and the factors involved don't add up, and never have. The ratio is an ordering number, and nothing more. It cannot be applied to the "estimated units sold in the first month in North America" (look at all the qualifiers!) as reported by Diamond to come up with any estimate that even comes close to reality. 

They're wild guesses. Nothing more.

Edited October 17, 2019 by RockMyAmadeus

[RockMyAmadeus]

Oh, and by the way....

A dirty little industry secret? Publishers can go, and HAVE gone, back to press on books when they've discovered they don't have enough.

It's now a piece of cake. Diamond calls up whomever is their liaison at the publisher, says "we were shorted X amount of this, can you send them out next week?" And VOILA! X amount of copies are ordered at the printer, and show up the next week.

And those copies are identical to all the rest.

No "second printing" notation, or any other change made. That's one of the reasons why the publishers make no promises to anyone about 1. how many they make, and 2. whether or not they are limited in any way...it leaves them free to go back to press for anything they want. And this comes from a publisher which deals in retailer incentives on a weekly basis.

[Jaydogrules]

52 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Right. 

As an example, I have one of the earliest ratio incentives (New Avengers #4, 2005) in quantity. I bought them from Wizard. Wizard dumped their variant overstock on eBay in 2007. I have 50+ copies of New Avengers #4, which was a 1:17 variant. According to Comichron, there were an estimated 154,920 units sold that first month. Those 154,920 units, as explained by John Jackson Miller, INCLUDE any variants also sold. That means, for the 50+ copies that I obtained from them, Wizard would have had to purchase 850 copies of the regular issue in the normal course of thing just to qualify for the copies I bought from them in 2007.

But Wizard was NOT a retailer. Wizard did not buy regular new books. So how and where did they get several hundred copies of a retailer incentive?

Answer: they were Wizard, when Wizard still had industry clout, and they simply asked Marvel if they could buy them directly. Marvel prints whatever it wants.

Wizard had several hundred of the #4 incentive variants that they sold, which debunks the "they only print to a case pack" theory. 

There is no way to come up with a theoretical minimum, because we have no idea how many orders qualified.

There is no way to come up with a theoretical maximum, because the publishers have demonstrated, time and again, that they print much more than is necessary to fill orders.

The "International orders are only an additional 10%" is a GUESS.

The math for why the "incentive variant print run estimate based on all copies reported sold" does not work is a little more subtle and complex, but it's not impossible, and the factors involved don't add up, and never have. The ratio is an ordering number, and nothing more. It cannot be applied to the "estimated units sold in the first month in North America" (look at all the qualifiers!) as reported by Diamond to come up with any estimate that even comes close to reality. 

They're wild guesses. Nothing more.

Everything in bold is opinion.

-J.

[divad]

1 hour ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Marvel prints whatever it wants.

this

[divad]

23 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

Hope you're aware of that.  

i am.

[RockMyAmadeus]

46 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

Everything in bold is opinion.

-J.

That is an opinion.

Edited October 18, 2019 by RockMyAmadeus

[RockMyAmadeus]

If anyone believes you can come up with a reasonable print run estimate of a retailer incentive using only the ratio and the number reported by Diamond...do it.

Of course, to be realistic, you'll have to explain how you did it. You know..."show your work." Not just say "well, duh, X divided by Y = Z! EASY!"

No. You need to show your work, and account for all factors. 

[Jaydogrules]

7 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

If anyone believes you can come up with a reasonable print run estimate of a retailer incentive using only the ratio and the number reported by Diamond...do it.

Of course, to be realistic, you'll have to explain how you did it. You know..."show your work." Not just say "well, duh, X divided by Y = Z! EASY!"

No. You need to show your work, and account for all factors. 

People do it all the time and will continue to do so, despite your opinions. 

-J.

[FlyingDonut]

2 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

People do it all the time and will continue to do so, despite your opinions. 

-J.

You keep saying that not being able to know what stores ordered is an opinion. That isn't opinion, unless you went to every comic store in North America and they told you.

[Jaydogrules]

4 hours ago, FlyingDonut said:

You keep saying that not being able to know what stores ordered is an opinion. That isn't opinion, unless you went to every comic store in North America and they told you.

That isn't what I said.  

"Your statement of what is not reasonable is, in fact, a statement of opinion."  

-J.

[Lazyboy]

20 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

Everything in bold is opinion.

-J.

All fact.

[paul747]

On 10/16/2019 at 3:49 PM, RockMyAmadeus said:

No. This has all been debunked over and over again. 

really? where has this been debunked?