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MOST VALUABLE MODERN VARIANTS - THE RANKINGS
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2,250 posts in this topic

On 10/17/2019 at 7:41 PM, RockMyAmadeus said:

Oh, and by the way....

A dirty little industry secret? Publishers can go, and HAVE gone, back to press on books when they've discovered they don't have enough.

It's now a piece of cake. Diamond calls up whomever is their liaison at the publisher, says "we were shorted X amount of this, can you send them out next week?" And VOILA! X amount of copies are ordered at the printer, and show up the next week.

And those copies are identical to all the rest.

No "second printing" notation, or any other change made. That's one of the reasons why the publishers make no promises to anyone about 1. how many they make, and 2. whether or not they are limited in any way...it leaves them free to go back to press for anything they want. And this comes from a publisher which deals in retailer incentives on a weekly basis.

proof?

Edited by paul747
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I would say , to speculate, that if comic cron says 10,000 ordered , shipped or whatever and there is a 1:10 variant for that particular comic, I would guess that one case of that variant would be  ordered, so its possible that it was a  200 book case (example) making the variant really a 1:5 but only 50 percent of the retailers  qualified  to purchase the variant (example). After the standard damage percentages and whatever else, the remainder of the variants end up in a marvel sale or a back handed retailer deal.  I would also say that with the higher print runs , using math like 1:50 of 50,000 books is a total of a 1000 variant books printed, that math and that number is probably an over estimate. I am sure that not every retailer qualified.My GUESS would be that less than 1000 were ordered. To say that no one knows exactly what is printed is a true statement, but to think for a minute that you cant use common sense and estimate is wacky. Publishers have a system in place to save money and to save associated costs! They use percentage formulas and are dialed in on their methods. I trust that they know what they are doing . I bet some of these estimating methods are closer than people think.  If you want to think that marvel is printing 10,000 more books over the reported numbers that's your choice , throw that into you own formula. I am not stating anything other than I have a certain formula I use to put an understanding on estimating print runs. Its all mine and I don't share it with anyone, I do however usually do my homework. Again just estimating and using probability, never pushing anything as FACTS! EVER!. I definitely always try to over estimate to give the benefit of the unknown equations.  I will say that sometimes if i am even close on the over estimates, the publisher probably took a bath!  So if you want to estimate or speculate feel free. Also ask questions, talk to diamond, talk to industry insiders and gather Intel. In this day and age a lot of retailers actually have experience dealing with artists and printers ask them questions about their orders. People can say and do whatever they want to do , What you listen to or believe is entirely up to you.

Edited by paul747
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1 hour ago, paul747 said:

really? where has this been debunked?

Hi! Late last month, in a post which I don't think should be reposted since it was removed from the board, you said "...please put me on ignore. I hope I never have to interact with you again." I have honored your request, and would ask that you honor your word.

Thanks. :)

 

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On 10/18/2019 at 9:27 PM, RockMyAmadeus said:

Hi! Late last month, in a post which I don't think should be reposted since it was removed from the board, you said "...please put me on ignore. I hope I never have to interact with you again." I have honored your request, and would ask that you honor your word.

Thanks. :)

 

block me bud!  That way you don't have to see my responses to the controlling garbage i read, or button hump like you did last time... :slapfight:

Edited by paul747
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7 hours ago, paul747 said:

block me bud!  That way you don't have to see my responses to the controlling garbage i read, or button hump like you did last time... :slapfight:

No buttons were "humped" by me, and I would simply like you to honor your word. 

Thank you for your kind cooperation. :)

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On 10/17/2019 at 7:23 AM, FlyingDonut said:

Your method assumes static ordering patterns, which is simply not the case.

What you can determine from the approximate print runs published on ComiChron is the approximate maximum number of variants. The variants can't be the full print run, so we know that the variants are less than that. The question is, how much less? If the total run is 100,000, and this represents the total number printed, then the maximum number of 1:1,000 variants would be 1,000, assuming 100 stores ordered 1,000 copies, and no other stores ordered anything. If you add in the artists special run of variants, you might get to 150 copies. that tells you the minimum rarity is around 150 copies out of a 100,000 copy print run. It is likely rarer than that because it is unlikely that 100 stores could hog the print run like that. It is after this that knowing the ordering patterns becomes meaningful but one can get some idea of rarity based on easily available information.

It is possible that a 1:50 variant is less rare than a 1:10 variant based on ordering patterns, but a 1:1000 variant can't be much less rare than 1:667 copies. That is useful information even if it isn't exact.

I've seen a number of posters on this board criticize all attempts at estimating rarity based on known data. The basis for the criticism is that there is unknown data that affects the calculation. While true, the unknown data can be looked at as enabling a more refined estimate but it does not negate the value of a coarse estimate. Put into the form of a real world example, I may not know for certain that risky action #1 is better than risky action #2 but if I have some evidence that suggests #2 is better, it may make sense to take that risk even if the evidence is not conclusive.

Your post here, and others like it, come across to me as eschewing all information that isn't 100% accurate. Many real world decisions are made with less than 100% certainty, so why it is such a hot topic in the hobby of comic book collecting puzzles me. There is no way to know for certain that any given film will fail or succeed at the box office, but billions are spent on them regardless. I don't know that ebay sellers will send me what I paid for but I do know that usually they do. When they don't, it hasn't been anything that mattered much, so I consider it a nuisance rather than a deal-breaker. With comic book rarity, while I would love to know the absolute, or even totally accurate relative figures, rough estimates are enough to guide buying decisions. I'm pretty sure I've made a couple mistakes along the way but that isn't going to stop me from doing my best to figure out which issues appear to be easier or harder to find than others, and buy accordingly.

Your recommendation seems to be to stop trying to understand this issue because it can't ever be known absolutely. Frankly, that seems fine if you never want to engage in a task that happens to be a lot of fun (estimating rarity and then betting on the results of your research) but don't see the value in discouraging others from looking into this. The fact is, it is fun to do. For my part, if it wasn't for that, I wouldn't be collecting comics right now. I don't care who drew them, what the story is, who the publisher is, or anything else. I buy for rarity because it is a fun challenge to find them.

Edited by paqart
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17 minutes ago, paqart said:

It is possible that a 1:50 variant is less rare than a 1:10 variant based on ordering patterns, but a 1:1000 variant can't be much less rare than 1:667 copies. That is useful information even if it isn't exact.

I've seen a number of posters on this board criticize all attempts at estimating rarity based on known data. The basis for the criticism is that there is unknown data that affects the calculation. While true, the unknown data can be looked at as enabling a more refined estimate but it does not negate the value of a coarse estimate. Put into the form of a real world example, I may not know for certain that risky action #1 is better than risky action #2 but if I have some evidence that suggests #2 is better, it may make sense to take that risk even if the evidence is not conclusive.

Basically saying a educated guess right? If so then that's perfectly fine. As long as it left that way. Some posters on here try to take that perception and 
make it reality and that's when the problems start to arise.

From our perspective does that make sense to you?

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8 minutes ago, fastballspecial said:

Basically saying a educated guess right? If so then that's perfectly fine. As long as it left that way. Some posters on here try to take that perception and 
make it reality and that's when the problems start to arise.

From our perspective does that make sense to you?

That's a fair interpretation of what I mean. However, I think some posters have unfairly assumed that someone making an educated guess is actually claiming objective reality. At worst, I would attribute that to the individual poster's writing skill and not their intent.

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9 minutes ago, fastballspecial said:

Basically saying a educated guess right? If so then that's perfectly fine. As long as it left that way. Some posters on here try to take that perception and 
make it reality and that's when the problems start to arise.

It's not an educated guess. That's the whole problem. It's making up numbers in the absence of hard data that "sounds good", but doesn't actually apply to what people are trying to make it apply to. I can guess how many tacos that Taco Bell makes in a day by trying to apply the number of taco shells sold at the grocery store, but those numbers don't have anything to do with each other, either. That's not how it works.

Yes, "some posters" ARE trying to take perception and make it reality, and yes, that's when the problems start to arise.

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2 minutes ago, paqart said:

That's a fair interpretation of what I mean. However, I think some posters have unfairly assumed that someone making an educated guess is actually claiming objective reality. At worst, I would attribute that to the individual poster's writing skill and not their intent.

No. No one is assuming that at all, because you can't even get to an educated guess from where you're starting. You're not making an educated guess, and that's where the problem lies. You're making up numbers out of thin air, using other numbers that have nothing to do with each other. That is the very opposite of an educated guess. 

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35 minutes ago, paqart said:

What you can determine from the approximate print runs published on ComiChron is the approximate maximum number of variants.

ComicChron does not report print runs, approximate or otherwise. ComicChron reports the estimated North American sales of comic books, month to month, which is the information that Diamond gives to them.

When you start with a foundation that isn't solid, everything that follows will be increasingly unstable.

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10 minutes ago, paqart said:

Except for the postal numbers reflecting average copies distributed found there but you forgot about those. Look, you enjoy being the representative of bitter honest truth but I think it's fair and healthy to take the edge off your criticism. Taken at face value, your comments are paralyzing and no good comes of that. For instance, you seem to love to complain about Benjamin Nobel and his wordpress page, rarecomics.com. I mention the full name of both for your benefit btw. If it wasn't for that guy's page, I wouldn't be buying comics today. Put another way, I wouldn't be deriving the tremendous enjoyment I am currently getting out of this hobby if he hadn't pointed out some things I hadn't given any thought to previously. Your arguments against him are so much snake oil compared to that. Maybe he's wrong about some things. So what? Maybe other people are also. Again, so what? I read once that cookies aren't good for you but I eat them anyway. So what? I understand, you want to police this forum, but outside the forum, people will do as they please. Within the forum, your arguments are less likely to convince than to turn people away. You can have the pleasure of making the argument but without the knowledge that it was convincing.

If, on the other hand, you had less of an adamantine resolve to pounce on every perceived injustice to "THE FACTS" as you like to write it, you might be more convincing. I've already decided you are too biased to take seriously. Convince me otherwise.

AMEN!

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6 minutes ago, paqart said:

Except for the postal numbers reflecting average copies distributed found there but you forgot about those.

That's because postal numbers reflect average number of copies distributed for a year. They do not tell us anything specific about specific issues, which makes those numbers, for the purpose of estimating how many incentive variants were produced for specific issues meaningless. They weren't forgotten: they have no meaning to this discussion.

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11 minutes ago, paqart said:

Look, you enjoy being the representative of bitter honest truth but I think it's fair and healthy to take the edge off your criticism. Taken at face value, your comments are paralyzing and no good comes of that. For instance, you seem to love to complain about Benjamin Nobel and his wordpress page, rarecomics.com. I mention the full name of both for your benefit btw. If it wasn't for that guy's page, I wouldn't be buying comics today. Put another way, I wouldn't be deriving the tremendous enjoyment I am currently getting out of this hobby if he hadn't pointed out some things I hadn't given any thought to previously. Your arguments against him are so much snake oil compared to that. Maybe he's wrong about some things. So what? Maybe other people are also. Again, so what? I read once that cookies aren't good for you but I eat them anyway. So what? I understand, you want to police this forum, but outside the forum, people will do as they please. Within the forum, your arguments are less likely to convince than to turn people away. You can have the pleasure of making the argument but without the knowledge that it was convincing.

If, on the other hand, you had less of an adamantine resolve to pounce on every perceived injustice to "THE FACTS" as you like to write it, you might be more convincing. I've already decided you are too biased to take seriously. Convince me otherwise.

When you cannot make your argument without making the argument personal, your argument has no merit and fails. I will continue to point out the facts. You may choose to do what so many before you have done, and make the argument about the people in it, rather than the merits of the argument itself. You will find no shortage of like "minded" people, wherever you go. You're not the first, and you certainly won't be the last.

Understand, however, that the willful spread of misinformation (usually because:offended) hurts others, people who take what they read and act upon it, not knowing better. It is an unfortunate reality that people want to both deceive and be deceived, as this particular topic demonstrates. I cannot help that. What I can do, however, is continue to voice opposition to those who choose deception and misinformation, so that the unwary can at the very least have two sides to consider. What people do with that information is, as always, entirely up to them...but at least they will be informed. 

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22 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

When you cannot make your argument without making the argument personal, your argument has no merit and fails. I will continue to point out the facts. You may choose to do what so many before you have done, and make the argument about the people in it, rather than the merits of the argument itself. You will find no shortage of like "minded" people, wherever you go. You're not the first, and you certainly won't be the last.

Understand, however, that the willful spread of misinformation (usually because:offended) hurts others, people who take what they read and act upon it, not knowing better. It is an unfortunate reality that people want to both deceive and be deceived, as this particular topic demonstrates. I cannot help that. What I can do, however, is continue to voice opposition to those who choose deception and misinformation, so that the unwary can at the very least have two sides to consider. What people do with that information is, as always, entirely up to them...but at least they will be informed. 

Opinions, opinions, opinions.  

You've made yours very clear at this point.  

Time to move on.

-J.

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1 hour ago, RockMyAmadeus said:
1 hour ago, fastballspecial said:

Basically saying a educated guess right? If so then that's perfectly fine. As long as it left that way. Some posters on here try to take that perception and 
make it reality and that's when the problems start to arise.

It's not an educated guess. That's the whole problem. It's making up numbers in the absence of hard data that "sounds good", but doesn't actually apply to what people are trying to make it apply to. I can guess how many tacos that Taco Bell makes in a day by trying to apply the number of taco shells sold at the grocery store, but those numbers don't have anything to do with each other, either. That's not how it works.

Yes, "some posters" ARE trying to take perception and make it reality, and yes, that's when the problems start to arise.

You are making a large assumption here. I have no problem with someone giving an estimate of circulation numbers. As long as they say they estimating I am fine with it. This is a much larger issue for you then many of us. We can all look at the data and give a ballpark idea and go yeah that's an idea of where it might be and leave it at that. These insufficiently_thoughtful_persons claiming they have more with no proof are easily dismissed.

Most of us are educated enough to accept that fact that we will never truly know. But we use the tools that are available to us to make a rational assumption or guess. As long as the poster says that and doesn't make any wild assumptions I am okay with that knowing that it is only a best a guess. There is no need to beat the point to death with them and most board members I think would agree with this basic assumption. Many of us have been out in the field for a very long time and can easily dispute claims that are not within reason.

 

 

Edited by fastballspecial
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