MOST VALUABLE MODERN VARIANTS - THE RANKINGS 17 17

[paul747]

15 minutes ago, bababooey said:

[darkstar]

On 10/19/2019 at 8:31 PM, paqart said:

What you can determine from the approximate print runs published on ComiChron is the approximate maximum number of variants. The variants can't be the full print run, so we know that the variants are less than that. The question is, how much less? If the total run is 100,000, and this represents the total number printed, then the maximum number of 1:1,000 variants would be 1,000, assuming 100 stores ordered 1,000 copies, and no other stores ordered anything. If you add in the artists special run of variants, you might get to 150 copies. that tells you the minimum rarity is around 150 copies out of a 100,000 copy print run. It is likely rarer than that because it is unlikely that 100 stores could hog the print run like that. It is after this that knowing the ordering patterns becomes meaningful but one can get some idea of rarity based on easily available information.

The end-of-year Diamond incentive variant dumps blows this line of thinking out of the water. 

And thinking that you can ballpark how many copies of a particular book your lcs orders, let alone every lcs, is hilarious. Attempting to extrapolate is bad enough. It gets exponentially worse when you extrapolate after beginning the exercise with false numbers. 

Looking at market depth and liquidity would be a far better use of your time than attempting to determine rarity by calculating a nonsense print count.

[Jaydogrules]

Oh look the other sock puppet account just got dusted off.  I can complete my bingo card now.  

-J.

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

Oh look the other sock puppet account just got dusted off.  I can complete my bingo card now.  

-J.

@ADAMANTIUM.........

[paul747]

21 hours ago, darkstar said:

The end-of-year Diamond incentive variant dumps blows this line of thinking out of the water. 

And thinking that you can ballpark how many copies of a particular book your lcs orders, let alone every lcs, is hilarious. Attempting to extrapolate is bad enough. It gets exponentially worse when you extrapolate after beginning the exercise with false numbers. 

Looking at market depth and liquidity would be a far better use of your time than attempting to determine rarity by calculating a nonsense print count.

Edited October 24, 2019 by paul747

[bababooey]

1 hour ago, showcase4 said:

2 serious questions  - ( I’ve been inactive in comics for the past 10+ years....missed a lot! )

1. When did the Variant “craze” really explode as the ‘new norm’?

2. Is it only recently that variant covers get released on the same day? (VS an initial print with one cover, and a 2nd or 3rd print variant cover, printed at a later date ?)

thanks all 

1. November 14, 2013

2. No. 

[ygogolak]

Supergirl has taken a big dive over the past year. Most likely because of the number of graded copies doubling over the past couple of years. I can't imagine that staying on the list unless skewed data from signed copies is still being used as was previously.

[FlyingDonut]

On 10/21/2019 at 7:41 PM, paul747 said:

THIS ! NO ONE IS SAYING ANY OF IT as a concrete conclusion ! These guys are the invisible police. Justice for the did not happen. Its like they are making up their own problem!

This is my entire point.

YES PEOPLE ARE.

Chuck Rosanski and Benjamin Nobel (just as two examples) ARE saying the ratios are the print runs. 

[Sal]

so, which modern variants are the most valuable? 

[FlyingDonut]

2 minutes ago, Sal said:

so, which modern variants are the most valuable? 

That Dell'Otto ASM book. Its crazy - and I'll bet that there are less of them than the "ratio" would offer. There was one on a wall in Baltimore for $15K - I don't know if it sold or not.

Edited October 24, 2019 by FlyingDonut

[paul747]

2 hours ago, FlyingDonut said:

This is my entire point.

YES PEOPLE ARE.

Chuck Rosanski and Benjamin Nobel (just as two examples) ARE saying the ratios are the print runs. 

t.

Edited October 24, 2019 by paul747

[Jaydogrules]

18 minutes ago, FlyingDonut said:

That Dell'Otto ASM book. Its crazy - and I'll bet that there are less of them than the "ratio" would offer. There was one on a wall in Baltimore for $15K - I don't know if it sold or not.

What was the grade of it?

-J.

[FlyingDonut]

2 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

What was the grade of it?

-J.

I didn't look at it except on the wall but it looked very pretty.

[RockMyAmadeus]

19 minutes ago, FlyingDonut said:

That Dell'Otto ASM book. Its crazy - and I'll bet that there are less of them than the "ratio" would offer. There was one on a wall in Baltimore for $15K - I don't know if it sold or not.

According to the erroneous and debunked "ordering ratio to sales reported by Diamond/Comichron" fiction, there would be approximately 750 copies made. Of course, since that is a completely invalid (not just "best guess"...invalid) way to "compute" the print runs of incentive variants, "750" has no meaning. It's a number made up out of thin air.

THAT said...I don't believe Marvel printed less than 500 of them. Marvel (and Disney) don't...or didn't...even get out of bed for print runs less than 1,000 as a matter of course. They certainly did not print a "single case" of them, as some have claimed.

I suspect...and this is a guess, here...that Marvel printed about 1,000 of them, and most of them...like all ASMs...ended up in private collections. There are several in members' collections here that aren't counted in any of the "known" counts, like the census. The rest of them are probably buried somewhere, like so many books that don't get near as much attention. What I CAN say is this: the book is far, far, far scarcer on the market than it ought to be, and that is a mystery.

That said...if I was presented documentation...that is, actual documents...I would be HAPPY to change my mind on the matter.

[Lazyboy]

2 minutes ago, FlyingDonut said:

I didn't look at it except on the wall but it looked very pretty.

Are you saying it was raw? That's not possible. Anybody who owns that book would send it to CGC at the first opportunity, even if they don't intend to sell. [/Jaydog]

[FlyingDonut]

Just now, Lazyboy said:

Are you saying it was raw? That's not possible. Anybody who owns that book would send it to CGC at the first opportunity, even if they don't intend to sell. [/Jaydog]

It was raw. That's actually surprising, given that CGC was there, but who knows. I do NOT remember whose booth it was at - sorry. It was a very hectic weekend.

 

[Jaydogrules]

49 minutes ago, FlyingDonut said:

I didn't look at it except on the wall but it looked very pretty.

$15k for a raw ? 

FYI, that book was only a one case pack run of ~225 copies, many of which were damaged.  

-J.

[ygogolak]

4 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

$15k for a raw ? 

FYI, that book was only a one case pack run of ~225 copies, many of which were damaged.  

-J.

If you're going to keep saying this, for years, why not just post the proof? It would end a lot of end to a lot of this.

[Lazyboy]

Just now, ygogolak said:

If you're going to keep saying this, for years, why not just post the proof?

 You know why.

[Jaydogrules]

12 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

If you're going to keep saying this, for years, why not just post the proof? It would end a lot of end to a lot of this.

Because as I explained, the physical info was provided in confidence,  by a well connected diamond account holder, though all it did was confirm what was thought to have been the case with regards to the book's numbers. 

-J.