MOST VALUABLE MODERN VARIANTS - THE RANKINGS 17 17

[Hollywood1892]

Just now, kav said:

Ps this is not a sentence.

I forgot to put a period

[Hollywood1892]

2 minutes ago, kav said:

what about Pedantic?

Yes, and

Hitherto

Pompous 

Condescending 

Hyperbole

Verbiage

[kav]

1 minute ago, Hollywood1892 said:

I forgot to put a period

There's a bigger problem than that I feer-

[ADAMANTIUM]

8 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

It's not close to being three years old yet, and barring one outlier apparent sale of $1200, it has been in the ~$750 range the last several months, so even if it was three+ years old it likely still would not make The Score.

-J.

a lot that does make the list i don't even know about due to being so new....

i'm glad to have heard about the UXMN# 510  

[Hollywood1892]

1 minute ago, kav said:

There's a bigger problem than that I feer-

I fealt there was something rong with that der sentence

[ADAMANTIUM]

20 minutes ago, Hollywood1892 said:

It went up one hundred slots on gocollect.com popular comics. I'm not sure why, is cosmic Ghostrider in the next guardians movie. Something else went up a bunch too  and so did Ironman 55

don't want to derail again, but gocollect.com was having issues yesterday and today...

yesterday, things weren't arranging right on the screen

today, the search function didn't work....

i emailed them, they said they're on it, seems to work fine now  

Edited October 29, 2019 by ADAMANTIUM

[kav]

Just now, ADAMANTIUM said:

i emailed the, they said their on it, seems to work fine now

This is not a sentence.

[ADAMANTIUM]

2 minutes ago, kav said:

This is not a sentence.

i was editing, i'm tired...lol

i emailed them, they said they're on it, seems to work fine now  

Edited just now by ADAMANTIUM

Edited October 29, 2019 by ADAMANTIUM

[Hollywood1892]

3 minutes ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

don't want to derail again, but gocollect.com was having issues yesterday and today...

yesterday, things weren't arranging right on the screen

today, the search function didn't work....

i emailed them, they said they're on it, seems to work fine now  

I'd like to understand their pricing better

I mean RAI 0 takes a massive leap up the standings, and yet it goes down $20.00

[ADAMANTIUM]

4 minutes ago, Hollywood1892 said:

I'd like to understand their pricing better

I mean RAI 0 takes a massive leap up the standings, and yet it goes down $20.00

the only thing i can think of is to buy low and sell high, perhaps it just shows promise  

[jsilverjanet]

 

[ygogolak]

10 hours ago, Hollywood1892 said:

I'd like to understand their pricing better

I mean RAI 0 takes a massive leap up the standings, and yet it goes down $20.00

I've told you this before. The list is not based on pricing but sales volume. Do you not believe me?

[Hollywood1892]

Just now, ygogolak said:

I've told you this before. The list is not based on pricing but sales volume. Do you not believe me?

I believe you, but that doesnt alleviate my frustration.

I will use my wording differently. I'm sorry

[Jaydogrules]

So, to put a nice button on it...

After speaking with a top Diamond rep, the following was stated and/or confirmed:

1) Diamond has a "brokerage agreement" with the publishers that allows for (but is not limited to) the following....

2) Diamond collects the orders from retailers and Diamond tells publishers what it needs to print (as opposed to Marvel just "printing what it wants", the absolutely ridiculous scenario a few people on here have suggested);

3) The publishers ship the entirety of the ordered books' print runs to Diamond who warehouses them (so yes, an invoice or solicit from Diamond would account for all of the case packs of a book produced by a publisher);

4) Diamond is solely responsible for the allocation and distribution of those books;

5) Marvel, in particular, is and has been very "tight" with their print runs (the +~3% printing overage for damage returns/courtesy copies was indirectly confirmed by the rep through an example where he said that "if Diamond asks for 100 books, Marvel will send 103");

6) Specific question asked by me-  "So the numbers reported by Diamond to comichron are largely representative of the actual print numbers?"

His pat answer-  "Yes"

7) Whatever overstock inventory sales or distributions Diamond conducts are directly authorized by the publishers themselves and are limited in nature 

Summary- 

NO, publishers do not just print "whatever they want" and books that nobody ordered.  

YES, on rare and intermittent occasions overstock from unused, remaindered case packs of a limited quantity of books will sometimes be sold off or distributed as courtesy copies.

YES, one can (obviously) reasonably use Comichron to not only ascertain print numbers, but also to estimate how many of a ratio variant for a particular book were printed (though that estimate will likely skew high in most cases).

-J.

[Shoomanfoo]

This last explanation though not 1st hand...

Is very sound from a common sense standpoint.

[valiantman]

All of the things that have been said can be true and there can still be 200+ additional copies of any comic book.  Publishers print extra for damages, they print extra for giveaways, they print extra for artists/writers, they print extras for employees.  While that doesn't do anything much for comics with 20,000+ copies, since 200 is just 1%, it doesn't matter much.  But, if someone says there's only 100 of a particular book, that's very, very hard to believe, because it doesn't make sense for a publisher to waste the time on so few books unless they're planning a big "limited to 100 copies" extravaganza (and even then, you know there are A/P artist proofs, etc.).  There are likely to be 200+ additional copies of everything, unless the whole point was to be numbered "out of 100" from the start.  Simple calculations on books like ASM #667 Dell'Otto compared to the CGC census for other books of similar value (value is the main reason any books are sent to CGC), you'll get estimates of 400 to 600 copies for ASM #667 Dell'Otto... and that's assuming there aren't any leftovers stacked somewhere beyond those 400 to 600.

[Jaydogrules]

8 minutes ago, valiantman said:

All of the things that have been said can be true and there can still be 200+ additional copies of any comic book.  Publishers print extra for damages, they print extra for giveaways, they print extra for artists/writers, they print extras for employees.  While that doesn't do anything much for comics with 20,000+ copies, since 200 is just 1%, it doesn't matter much.  But, if someone says there's only 100 of a particular book, that's very, very hard to believe, because it doesn't make sense for a publisher to waste the time on so few books unless they're planning a big "limited to 100 copies" extravaganza (and even then, you know there are A/P artist proofs, etc.).  There are likely to be 200+ additional copies of everything, unless the whole point was to be numbered "out of 100" from the start.  Simple calculations on books like ASM #667 Dell'Otto compared to the CGC census for other books of similar value (value is the main reason any books are sent to CGC), you'll get estimates of 400 to 600 copies for ASM #667 Dell'Otto... and that's assuming there aren't any leftovers stacked somewhere beyond those 400 to 600.

Publishers are printing +3% over orders received for damages, etc.

That's what he said, that's what it is. His example of "100 copies being ordered and 103 being delivered" was not in reference to a particular book, it was just an example to demonstrate the percentages. 

As for the ASM 667 Dell'otto, there were less than 250 copies of that book printed (or rather 200-250, depending on the amount of copies within the one case pack that was produced of it).

-J.

 

Edited October 29, 2019 by Jaydogrules

[valiantman]

Just now, Jaydogrules said:

As for the ASM 667 Dell'otto, there were less than 250 copies of that book printed.  

-J.

 

The ASM #667 Dell'Otto has been "worth $1,000+" for about 6 years.  In those 6 years, 45 copies have been sent to CGC for grading.  TMNT #1 has been "worth $1,000+" for all 20 years that CGC has existed.  We know that 3,275 copies of TMNT #1 were printed.  When TMNT #1 had been "worth $1,000+" for 6 years after the start of CGC grading for that book, only 8% of the 3,275 copies had been CGC graded.  Using 8% for ASM #667 Dell'Otto, with 45 copies graded, the estimate is 562 copies.  We can repeat this using TMNT #1 each year since, or we can use an even bigger book which has 10 times the value and reasons to be sent to CGC, Amazing Fantasy #15 and get a relative estimate for ASM #667 Dell'Otto using the biggest Spider-Man book in existence, and we can repeat that estimate each year since 2014 (the first time ASM #667 Dell'Otto was worth $1,000+).  We get better and better estimates, and they keep resulting in 400 to 600 copies.  We can do this every year... forever. 

[Jaydogrules]

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

The ASM #667 Dell'Otto has been "worth $1,000+" for about 6 years.  In those 6 years, 45 copies have been sent to CGC for grading.  TMNT #1 has been "worth $1,000+" for all 20 years that CGC has existed.  We know that 3,275 copies of TMNT #1 were printed.  When TMNT #1 had been "worth $1,000+" for 6 years after the start of CGC grading for that book, only 8% of the 3,275 copies had been CGC graded.  Using 8% for ASM #667 Dell'Otto, with 45 copies graded, the estimate is 562 copies.  We can repeat this using TMNT #1 each year since, or we can use an even bigger book which has 10 times the value and reasons to be sent to CGC, Amazing Fantasy #15 and get a relative estimate for ASM #667 Dell'Otto using the biggest Spider-Man book in existence, and we can repeat that estimate each year since 2014 (the first time ASM #667 Dell'Otto was worth $1,000+).  We get better and better estimates, and they keep resulting in 400 to 600 copies.  We can do this every year... forever. 

You know I respect you, but your methodology here is inherently flawed by using TMNT 1 as a comparison.  That book was published nearly 20 years before CGC became a thing, and nearly 30 years before the ASM 667, meaning that, in comparison, far more copies of TMNT 1 will have been forever lost to time before CGC was even invented, thus impacting its census numbers more than anything else, regardless of value.

ASM 667, on the other hand, was published during the slab era, when any book with a scintilla of value is immediately rushed to Florida to be slabbed and sold.

Far more appropriate and relevant comparisons would be other variants from the modern era with estimated/reported print runs of ~500 or less, such as the following- Saga 1 Third printing DRS, Wolverine 1 Campbell, Siege 3 Campbell, and Batman 608RRP.

None of those sell near what the ASM 667 Dell'ott sells for (which, incidentally, the first time the 667 sold for more than $1000 publicly was in early 2013, not 2014) but they certainly sell for more than enough to warrant being slabbed, but how many copies of those books have been slabbed? *Hint- They all have 150-300 on the census, compared to the ~40 unique slabs of the ASM 667.

That, and I've seen the Diamond solicit showing only one case pack of the ASM 667 Dell'otto shipped.

-J.

 

Edited October 29, 2019 by Jaydogrules

[valiantman]

32 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

The ASM #667 Dell'Otto has been "worth $1,000+" for about 6 years.  In those 6 years, 45 copies have been sent to CGC for grading.  TMNT #1 has been "worth $1,000+" for all 20 years that CGC has existed.  We know that 3,275 copies of TMNT #1 were printed.  When TMNT #1 had been "worth $1,000+" for 6 years after the start of CGC grading for that book, only 8% of the 3,275 copies had been CGC graded.  Using 8% for ASM #667 Dell'Otto, with 45 copies graded, the estimate is 562 copies.  We can repeat this using TMNT #1 each year since, or we can use an even bigger book which has 10 times the value and reasons to be sent to CGC, Amazing Fantasy #15 and get a relative estimate for ASM #667 Dell'Otto using the biggest Spider-Man book in existence, and we can repeat that estimate each year since 2014 (the first time ASM #667 Dell'Otto was worth $1,000+).  We get better and better estimates, and they keep resulting in 400 to 600 copies.  We can do this every year... forever. 

You know I respect you, but your methodology here is inherently flawed by using TMNT 1 as a comparison.  That book was published nearly 20 years before CGC became a thing, and nearly 30 years before the ASM 667, meaning that, in comparison, far more copies of TMNT 1 will have been forever lost to time from the get-go, thus impacting its census numbers more than anything else, regardless of value.

ASM 667, on the other hand, was published during the slab era, when any book with a scintilla of value is immediately rushed to Florida to be slabbed and sold.

Far more appropriate and relevant comparisons would be other variants from the modern era with estimated/reported print runs of ~500 or less, such as the following- Saga 1 Third printing DRS, Wolverine 1 Campbell, Siege 3 Campbell, and Batman 608RRP.

None of those sell near what the ASM 667 Dell'ott sells for (which, incidentally, the first time the 667 sold for more than $1000 publicly was in early 2013, not 2014) but they certainly sell for more than enough to warrant being slabbed, but how many copies of those books have been slabbed? *Hint- They all have 150-300 on the census, compared to the ~40 unique slabs of the ASM 667.

That, and I've seen the Diamond solicit showing only one case pack of the ASM 667 Dell'otto shipped.

-J.

What has happened between February 2019 and October 2019 for ASM #667 Dell'Otto?   Because the CGC counts have jumped from 36 graded copies to 46 graded copies in just 8 months.  The prior 8 months (July 2018 to February 2019), the CGC census only increased by 1 copy.  There's a significant "ummm, that shouldn't have happened" moment associated with the most recent 8 months, and serious questions have to be asked about the next 8 months, or the next 8 years, for that matter.  Other key issues have been on the CGC census for 20 years, but this one has only been "a book to slab" for 6 years... and you're making the statement that 25% of all existing copies are already graded.  It has taken 20 years to get to 25% of the known number of TMNT #1 printed, the biggest book from the past 35 years. 

Even the Bloodshot #0 Platinum, which is a known major book for collectors of Valiant (and there are 50,000+ other (cheaper) Valiant books on the CGC census) for the past 15 years only has 24 copies graded.  It is believed that there are 300 copies of Bloodshot #0 Platinum, but after 15 years, the CGC census count is only 24.  After 6 years of slab-worthiness (or 8 years, max), the CGC census for ASM #667 Dell'Otto is at 46 copies.  After 8 years of grading for Bloodshot #0 Platinum, there were only 12 on the CGC census.  There would be 4 times as many ASM #667 Dell'Otto, just using the 8th year CGC census comparison... or there would only be 45 copies of Bloodshot #0 Platinum in existence, if ASM #667 Dell'Otto was only ~200 copies.  There can't be 300 Bloodshot #0 Platinum with 12 on the CGC census after 8 years and ~200 copies of ASM #667 Dell'Otto with 46 on the CGC census after 8 years.  

It is entirely possible that Diamond received only one case -AND- that another case (or two) stayed with Marvel, because 400+ is the only thing that makes sense for the number of copies in the CGC census.  It also explains how 10 new copies were graded in the past 8 months when only 1 new copy was graded in the entire prior 8 months.  Nothing about the 2011 distribution changed, but 10 new copies suddenly graded in 8 months several years later statistically screams "there are more than the original distribution".  

A conspiracy theorist would say that someone has a nice sized stack of them, and they're "slow-playing" the CGC grading (about 1 per month for the past 8 months) so the market doesn't collapse. 

Edited October 29, 2019 by valiantman