MOST VALUABLE MODERN VARIANTS - THE RANKINGS 17 17

[RockMyAmadeus]

21 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Are you saying your little LCS didn't order 50 copies of ASM #667? 

Nevermind, already addressed.

 

Edited October 29, 2019 by RockMyAmadeus

[Get Marwood & I]

Just now, valiantman said:

You're adding a fact to the discussion that goes against the loudest voice in this topic.  Copies were given out which were not earned.  You have one.  There are undoubtedly more.  Thank you for adding this information. 

Do I get a prize?

[Jaydogrules]

4 minutes ago, valiantman said:

You're adding a fact to the discussion that goes against the loudest voice in this topic.  Copies were given out which were not earned.  You have one.  There are undoubtedly more.  Thank you for adding this information. 

You don't know where or how that one single LCS got their copy, and if there were random copies given out to tons of LCS, that certainly doesn't help YOUR argument about the book's absolute rarity,  or explain why there still is a fraction of it on the census compared to other famous rare variants does it? Lol

-J.

Edited October 29, 2019 by Jaydogrules

[valiantman]

1 minute ago, Get Marwood & I said:

2 minutes ago, valiantman said:

You're adding a fact to the discussion that goes against the loudest voice in this topic.  Copies were given out which were not earned.  You have one.  There are undoubtedly more.  Thank you for adding this information. 

Do I get a prize?

You definitely had one. 

[Get Marwood & I]

Just now, valiantman said:

You definitely had one. 

Key word 'had'. I want a prize for now. Can't you do me a graph or something?

[valiantman]

Just now, Jaydogrules said:

3 minutes ago, valiantman said:

You're adding a fact to the discussion that goes against the loudest voice in this topic.  Copies were given out which were not earned.  You have one.  There are undoubtedly more.  Thank you for adding this information. 

You don't know where or how that one single LCS got their copy, and if there were random copies given out to tons of LCS, that certainly doesn't help YOUR argument about the book's absolute rarity, does it? Lol

-J.

My argument is that all signs point to 400-600 copies, including this fact about an unearned copy being known to have been sent to an LCS.  So, yeah, I agree... it's rare... 400 to 600 copies, most likely.

[Jaydogrules]

2 minutes ago, valiantman said:

My argument is that all signs point to 400-600 copies, including this fact about an unearned copy being known to have been sent to an LCS.  So, yeah, I agree... it's rare... 400 to 600 copies, most likely.

What "signs" ? That's not what the diamond solicit said (or what is consistent with other books' census numbers' that actually do have that print run). 

-J.

Edited October 29, 2019 by Jaydogrules

[valiantman]

1 minute ago, Jaydogrules said:

4 minutes ago, valiantman said:

My argument is that all signs point to 400-600 copies, including this fact about an unearned copy being known to have been sent to an LCS.  So, yeah, I agree... it's rare... 400 to 600 copies, most likely.

That's not what the solicit said (or what is consistent with other books' census numbers' that actually do have that print run). 

-J.

I'm done today.  My charts are pretty.  Thanks for the flower. 

[Get Marwood & I]

5 minutes ago, valiantman said:

My argument is that all signs point to 400-600 copies, including this fact about an unearned copy being known to have been sent to an LCS.  So, yeah, I agree... it's rare... 400 to 600 copies, most likely.

Shame it doesn't have a number on the back like this one:

[RockMyAmadeus]

13 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

That's not what the diamond solicit said

Do you have a copy of this solicit?

13 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

(or what is consistent with other books' census numbers' that actually do have that print run).

Those "print runs" are, themselves, estimates, not hard numbers. While WD #100 Lucille red foil may have been advertised as "1 of 250", I doubt that's all that was made.

I have an associate who worked at a publisher for several years. I can tell you stories of the books that were announced as "Limited to X", but were printed to the tune of 2X or 3X...as well as "you cannot let this book be sold on the open market, or shown, or many people will be very mad."

 

[Foley]

22 minutes ago, Get Marwood & I said:

Key word 'had'. I want a prize for now. Can't you do me a graph or something?

I'll do one for you Steve:

[Get Marwood & I]

57 minutes ago, Foley said:

1 hour ago, Get Marwood & I said:

Key word 'had'. I want a prize for now. Can't you do me a graph or something?

I'll do one for you Steve:

 He's no stranger to love.

Wasn't there another one with Meatloaf - the things he'd do for love?

This was my favourite graph though (Jay, please don't hate me. It's just a bit of fun mate! )

 

[Get Marwood & I]

 I know it's bad form but I can't stop laughing. 'Based on a poll of Jaydogrules' 

 

Sorry Jay 

[Lazyboy]

2 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

Okay so you disagree with hobby consensus

Of what relevance is consensus when we're looking for facts? You must be aware that the numbers thrown around for those other books have changed multiple times over the years, because they are and were always only guesses.

[Brock]

7 hours ago, Get Marwood & I said:

Shame it doesn't have a number on the back like this one:

So - bottom line - we’re saying there are at least 10,300 of these out there, right?

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 hour ago, Brock said:

So - bottom line - we’re saying there are at least 10,300 of these out there, right?

Oh, they DEFINITELY printed more than 10,000 of these.

There's no way they could risk damage.

[Prince Namor]

14 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

NO, one cannot (obviously) reasonably use Comichron to ascertain print numbers of anything, for the following (already stated multiple times) reasons:

1. The number reported by Comichron includes all versions of each issue sold/distributed, INCLUDING variants. Since those numbers aren't broken down, we have no idea how many of that "number" is regular copies, store exclusive copies distributed by Diamond (see ASM #666), and or other variants (of which there can be several for any given issue.) This discrepancy is not statistically negligible.

2. The number reported by Comichron only includes a single month's worth of each issue sold/distributed. Any copies sold in following months of the SAME issue are NOT included in that original number, and those numbers aren't statistically negligible.

3. The number reported by Comichron only includes sales/distribution in North America. It does not include any information about those same issues sold/distributed elsewhere in the world, and those numbers aren't statistically negligible. 

4. The "ratio" is an ordering mechanism. Because of the factors above, it's impossible to know whether trying to apply that "number" to the "copies sold" number will result in a number that is far too high, right on, or far too low....and that's assuming those sales are anywhere near a reasonable representation of the print run in the first place. Once you factor in all of these unknown variables, skewing the data every which way, trying to apply the "ratio" to the "copies reported sold" number renders the "result" statistically meaningless. If I was a statistician, I could graph all these variables and demonstrate how these variables can skew, but I'm not.

Finally...YES, the explanation above DOES seem like common sense to those with only a cursory understanding of how the Direct market works. But it's not accurate, for all the reasons given. Necessary disclaimer: there's nothing wrong with having only a cursory understanding of how the Direct market works, but that limitation means that reasonable sounding, but actually inaccurate, explanations get made and accepted in this hobby for why things are the way they are.

This.

[Prince Namor]

19 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

2) Diamond collects the orders from retailers and Diamond tells publishers what it needs to print (as opposed to Marvel just "printing what it wants", the absolutely ridiculous scenario a few people on here have suggested);

You do realize that Marvel sells to more than just Diamond right? They also distribute through both Hachette Distribution which puts them in malls, airports, etc. and directly to their parent company Disney. So they print MORE than what Diamond says. Duh. 

And what about the English language copies printed for the UK? Australia? They're the same book, just sold to a different distributor. Diamond UK is NOT the same as Diamond in the U.S. Does Marvel ship direct to them on a different invoice or does the Distributor waste money and ship to their own outside Distribution arm?

What's your 'inside guy' have to say about that? 

Your inside guy is just reiterating what Marvel wants you to believe. It's what they're taught to say.

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3) The publishers ship the entirety of the ordered books' print runs to Diamond who warehouses them (so yes, an invoice or solicit from Diamond would account for all of the case packs of a book produced by a publisher);

Once again, NO it wouldn't because Marvel prints for more than just Diamond. 

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4) Diamond is solely responsible for the allocation and distribution of those books;

Of the one's they ordered. I would think so, yes.

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5) Marvel, in particular, is and has been very "tight" with their print runs (the +~3% printing overage for damage returns/courtesy copies was indirectly confirmed by the rep through an example where he said that "if Diamond asks for 100 books, Marvel will send 103");

LOL. We've heard this before.

They came under scrutiny in 2013 because of a huge sale of 75 cent Marvel incentive variants sold by Diamond, well after the fact and they swore they'd tighten things up, blah, blah, blah.... just in time for... Star Wars! Gee - think it benefitted them to say those variants would be printed tightly?

Then of course... well after the fact here comes Diamond with another sale of Marvel Star Wars Incentive Variants for pennies on the dollar.... and another 'under scrutiny' and ANOTHER PROMISE of tightening up print runs made by DIAMOND - not Marvel. Because Marvel isn't going to place itself in a possibly liable position by EVER guaranteeing that a variant is printed to certain ratio.

Even though that would increase its value automatically, increase sales for it's mother book, and end the speculation on its rarity. Because they CAN'T, because it's NOT and they DON'T.

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6) Specific question asked by me-  "So the numbers reported by Diamond to comichron are largely representative of the actual print numbers?"

His pat answer-  "Yes"

Thats weird - here I thought Comichron printed SALES numbers. If those are print run numbers, as he says, why aren't they in case pack quantities?

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7) Whatever overstock inventory sales or distributions Diamond conducts are directly authorized by the publishers themselves and are limited in nature 

DC, as an example, warehouse their own books, so - no. Marvel ALSO warehouses books, where do those come from?

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Summary- 

NO, publishers do not just print "whatever they want" and books that nobody ordered.  

Always have. Always will. And printing is even cheaper now than ever before.

Here's one of Marvel's last Statement of Ownership's for Amazing Spider-man from 2008:

TOTAL # of copies printed (avg): 125,019 (or 500.76 CASES, an uneven case amount!!!)

Sales thru Dealers: 95,141 (Also an uneven case count) 

Subscription Sales: 10,807

Copies not distributed (RETURNS): 17,515 or 14% MORE THAN THEY NEEDED!

 

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YES, on rare and intermittent occasions overstock from unused, remaindered case packs of a limited quantity of books will sometimes be sold off or distributed as courtesy copies.

LOL.

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YES, one can (obviously) reasonably use Comichron to not only ascertain print numbers, but also to estimate how many of a ratio variant for a particular book were printed (though that estimate will likely skew high in most cases).

-J.

WOW. You STILL are shilling this concept?

Edited October 30, 2019 by Chuck Gower

[ygogolak]

23 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

2) Diamond collects the orders from retailers and Diamond tells publishers what it needs to print (as opposed to Marvel just "printing what it wants", the absolutely ridiculous scenario a few people on here have suggested);

19 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

It's not either/or. It's both. Diamond tells publishers what they need to print AND the publishers then decide what they are going to print...and they print what they want (this should go without stating, but nevertheless, here we are.)

Yes, BOOM has actually been manipulating the market on their 2nd prints in recent months. FOC numbers mean nothing. They are telling the printer how many they want printed which is shorting the orders and causing allocations.

 

 

 

[Jaydogrules]

4 hours ago, Chuck Gower said:

You do realize that Marvel sells to more than just Diamond right? They also distribute through both Hachette Distribution which puts them in malls, airports, etc. and directly to their parent company Disney. So they print MORE than what Diamond says. Duh. 

And what about the English language copies printed for the UK? Australia? They're the same book, just sold to a different distributor. Diamond UK is NOT the same as Diamond in the U.S. Does Marvel ship direct to them on a different invoice or does the Distributor waste money and ship to their own outside Distribution arm?

What's your 'inside guy' have to say about that? 

Your inside guy is just reiterating what Marvel wants you to believe. It's what they're taught to say.

Once again, NO it wouldn't because Marvel prints for more than just Diamond. 

Of the one's they ordered. I would think so, yes.

LOL. We've heard this before.

They came under scrutiny in 2013 because of a huge sale of 75 cent Marvel incentive variants sold by Diamond, well after the fact and they swore they'd tighten things up, blah, blah, blah.... just in time for... Star Wars! Gee - think it benefitted them to say those variants would be printed tightly?

Then of course... well after the fact here comes Diamond with another sale of Marvel Star Wars Incentive Variants for pennies on the dollar.... and another 'under scrutiny' and ANOTHER PROMISE of tightening up print runs made by DIAMOND - not Marvel. Because Marvel isn't going to place itself in a possibly liable position by EVER guaranteeing that a variant is printed to certain ratio.

Even though that would increase its value automatically, increase sales for it's mother book, and end the speculation on its rarity. Because they CAN'T, because it's NOT and they DON'T.

Thats weird - here I thought Comichron printed SALES numbers. If those are print run numbers, as he says, why aren't they in case pack quantities?

DC, as an example, warehouse their own books, so - no. Marvel ALSO warehouses books, where do those come from?

Always have. Always will. And printing is even cheaper now than ever before.

Here's one of Marvel's last Statement of Ownership's for Amazing Spider-man from 2008:

TOTAL # of copies printed (avg): 125,019 (or 500.76 CASES, an uneven case amount!!!)

Sales thru Dealers: 95,141 (Also an uneven case count) 

Subscription Sales: 10,807

Copies not distributed (RETURNS): 17,515 or 14% MORE THAN THEY NEEDED!

 

LOL.

WOW. You STILL are shilling this concept?

Oh okay, so you ARE making the cockamamie claim that publishers willfully over print books in mass quantities that no one ordered. 

Great, glad we got you officially on the record with that nonsense.  

Think I'll take the word of the Diamond honcho over you, and your cherry picked 11 year old data, thanks (sheesh, and I thought that "I" was the one who supposedly did that, lol).

And quit conflating comic resellers (five below is another one) and the tiny foreign distribution market (in comparison) with what Diamond NA direct does.  Doing so once again really does make you look like you are deliberately trying to deceive people. 

Diamond has an EXCLUSIVE BROKERAGE AGREEMENT, this is a fact, you can run around like chicken little all you like, calling publishers liars, implying evil, fraudulent, and nefarious intent, and telling comic collectors what YOU think they can and cannot do all you like.

No one is listening....

-J.

 

Edited October 30, 2019 by Jaydogrules