This Week In Your Plastic Crack, Action Figures and Toy Collection 26 26

[alexgross.com]

i've got a buddy who is huge into the world of star wars toys and artwork. i was surprised to learn that there is no GPA equivalent for graded action figures. he said that he just estimates fair pricing on AFA graded figures on past recent ebay sales, which seems sort of nuts to me when you are talking about price ranges in the mid 4 figures and even over 5 figures. it seems like there's a real opportunity for someone to start compiling sales results for AFA graded figures and making them available to collectors. god knows this field is not going away, much as comics collecting isn't either.  even if you are going by just ebay sales, dont you want to see the prices going back several years, like GPA does with comics? 

[comicwiz]

1 hour ago, www.alexgross.com said:

i've got a buddy who is huge into the world of star wars toys and artwork. i was surprised to learn that there is no GPA equivalent for graded action figures. he said that he just estimates fair pricing on AFA graded figures on past recent ebay sales, which seems sort of nuts to me when you are talking about price ranges in the mid 4 figures and even over 5 figures. it seems like there's a real opportunity for someone to start compiling sales results for AFA graded figures and making them available to collectors. god knows this field is not going away, much as comics collecting isn't either.  even if you are going by just ebay sales, dont you want to see the prices going back several years, like GPA does with comics? 

If you had asked me this 8 or 9 years ago, my answer would have been most certainly yes, in favour of some price guide framework.

Since then, and having seen what's happened in this community, not just as a collector, but someone who has been dialed-in with values across not only Kenner US, but multiple foreign lines as well, the community would very likely resist such a project or endeavor.

AFA itself has faced significant resistance from the get-go, but that's another story.

eBay created this opportunity that was ripe for a third-party grader to sieze the opportunity, but the democratizing function was enabling the average Joe collector the opportunity to buy/sell and build their collections without needing to network, make "friendships" with seemingly like-minded collectors who you find out too late will trample over you to get their fix, and best of all, flipping the bird to all the mail-order dealers and those days of mailing a cheque and maybe, maybe, getting something a few months later that you weren't completely happy with, but there is no way you were going to wait another couple of months/years for a refund. That's if you got anything at all.

Yes, relying on past eBay sales is fraught with problems, but eBay is still hundreds of times better than what goes on in Facebook communities. It is the rule rather than the exception that as soon as an outlier sale occurs, everyone starts pricing theirs at the "record" value and it quickly becomes the "new normal."

Like anything, you have to be prepared to question outlier sales, whether it's shill bidding on eBay, or some Facebook seller with the tiring formula of " I'm only going to sell this to a sucker." Once you start seeing this pattern over and over again, you know how to identify and rule out price manipulation.  I'm afraid no guide can anticipate or vet this type of activity properly. I'll also briefly direct you to how GPA itself fell victim to this in the past.

Beyond the above concerns, I love GPA, but the contextual laziness and dishonesty its bred is not something I celebrate or embrace with open arms. I can't tell you how many times I wished there was a punch this guy in the face feature via PM, particularly when someone contacts you, cherry-picks the most out of context, dissimilar or outdated data point in an attempt to bamboozle you out of a book. 

Nothing can replace first-hand knowledge of how to properly research comparables, and being dialed-in to a market.

Edited February 24, 2018 by comicwiz

[Buzzetta]

As someone who uses GPA I can easily tell you how GPA can be manipulated and there is really not much that can be done about it.  I am not mocking GPA.  I find it to be a valuable and more importantly fun tool to have. As someone who looks at things in multiple angles for how someone can scam the hell out of it, I can point out a few things. 

1 - Lower priced books and free shipping.  I recently bought a book for $30 on CLink and flipped it on eBay for $50 + shipping. What is the real value of the book?  What is the value of the book if I had included shipping in the ask price and marked the listing as free shipping? The market sees the recorded price of my book and then as Joe said, my book becomes the new norm instead of the outlier it really is.  

2 - Want to manipulate sales with GPA?  Let's play movie hype.  Let's take multiple copies of Comic Book X which everyone knows is in development.  I will sell a copy of Comic Book X for $115 to Joe over eBay.  Previous sales are usually $50.  I sell another to my neighbor for $135. (Joe and my neighbor are in on this btw - this is make believe btw)  Then I offer all the rest of my copies at $100.  GPA has a few sales at $115-$135 all manipulated by me.  Now I take a stack of books and sell them all at the low low price of $100.  Wasn't there someone on the boards who was caught doing this?  He was faking sales to manipulate GPA... was it 1st Iron Fist?  Why is that standing out? 

 

GPA is a far better guide than overstreet but it is not the end all be all.  Common sense should always prevail. 

This is what I texted someone today regarding current pricing trends during the Heritage Auction: "Judging by what people just paid for Buster Brown, I say that the ASM 100 cover ends at $427,000,000."

 

When it comes to buying things and 'guide', as a collector I offer you this...  Pay what you are comfortable paying, buy what you like, buy it with the understanding that you may never get any money back on it.  It is there for your enjoyment.  After that anything you get for something is icing on the cake. 

 

K I am rambling... 

Edited February 24, 2018 by Buzzetta

[scumdolly]

4 hours ago, www.alexgross.com said:

i've got a buddy who is huge into the world of star wars toys and artwork. i was surprised to learn that there is no GPA equivalent for graded action figures. he said that he just estimates fair pricing on AFA graded figures on past recent ebay sales, which seems sort of nuts to me when you are talking about price ranges in the mid 4 figures and even over 5 figures. it seems like there's a real opportunity for someone to start compiling sales results for AFA graded figures and making them available to collectors. god knows this field is not going away, much as comics collecting isn't either.  even if you are going by just ebay sales, dont you want to see the prices going back several years, like GPA does with comics? 

There isn't a GPA for AFA stuff simply because AFA has a long history of poor database house keeping. AFA's registry is incredibly hard to navigate (and this is 10 years after its launch) and AFA's record keeping was really shoddy for the first 3-4 years (e.g., GI JOE 9-/21-/32-/34-backs, Cobra Commander Offers, and possibly Explosion Backs were never noted on the label--and probably database).

The best way to gauge price movements over a period of years is to do an extensive search on the various toy forums (where such discussion will probably exist), over a long-enough period of time, and then go from there. You probably don't need to do this for a common ROTJ AFA Y-80 figure, but if you're in the market for an AFA 85 SW 12-back or a GI JOE offerless 9-back Scarlett, then it's probably a good idea.

[alexgross.com]

1 hour ago, Buzzetta said:

As someone who uses GPA I can easily tell you how GPA can be manipulated and there is really not much that can be done about it.  I am not mocking GPA.  I find it to be a valuable and more importantly fun tool to have. As someone who looks at things in multiple angles for how someone can scam the hell out of it, I can point out a few things. 

1 - Lower priced books and free shipping.  I recently bought a book for $30 on CLink and flipped it on eBay for $50 + shipping. What is the real value of the book?  What is the value of the book if I had included shipping in the ask price and marked the listing as free shipping? The market sees the recorded price of my book and then as Joe said, my book becomes the new norm instead of the outlier it really is.  

2 - Want to manipulate sales with GPA?  Let's play movie hype.  Let's take multiple copies of Comic Book X which everyone knows is in development.  I will sell a copy of Comic Book X for $115 to Joe over eBay.  Previous sales are usually $50.  I sell another to my neighbor for $135. (Joe and my neighbor are in on this btw - this is make believe btw)  Then I offer all the rest of my copies at $100.  GPA has a few sales at $115-$135 all manipulated by me.  Now I take a stack of books and sell them all at the low low price of $100.  Wasn't there someone on the boards who was caught doing this?  He was faking sales to manipulate GPA... was it 1st Iron Fist?  Why is that standing out? 

 

GPA is a far better guide than overstreet but it is not the end all be all.  Common sense should always prevail. 

This is what I texted someone today regarding current pricing trends during the Heritage Auction: "Judging by what people just paid for Buster Brown, I say that the ASM 100 cover ends at $427,000,000."

 

When it comes to buying things and 'guide', as a collector I offer you this...  Pay what you are comfortable paying, buy what you like, buy it with the understanding that you may never get any money back on it.  It is there for your enjoyment.  After that anything you get for something is icing on the cake. 

 

K I am rambling... 

just to be clear i am not saying that GPA is perfect by any means. simply observing that the collectible toy/ action figure market seems like it could use a similar database available to all. i have been documenting comiclink sales results of interest to me  privately for awhile now due to GPA not including them, among others, in their database. but it's still a valuable tool, especially going back 12 years on key books. 

[alexgross.com]

15 minutes ago, scumdolly said:

 

The best way to gauge price movements over a period of years is to do an extensive search on the various toy forums (where such discussion will probably exist), over a long-enough period of time, and then go from there. You probably don't need to do this for a common ROTJ AFA Y-80 figure, but if you're in the market for an AFA 85 SW 12-back or a GI JOE offerless 9-back Scarlett, then it's probably a good idea.

funny you should mention this exact thing- i am looking at a lovely AFA 85 SW 12 back as we speak and really cannot find any info about comparable sales. but then, i'm not really hip to the toy forums either. 

[scumdolly]

1 minute ago, www.alexgross.com said:

funny you should mention this exact thing- i am looking at a lovely AFA 85 SW 12 back as we speak and really cannot find any info about comparable sales. but then, i'm not really hip to the toy forums either. 

Rebelscum is probably your best option for discussion on price movements for SW 12 backs (AFA 85+)--especially since 2012/ the Disney acquisition of SW. You have to be a member to use the site's search function, but you can also find the info through a refined google search. I did a quick google search for "rebelscum price of 12 backs afa 85" and found some useful threads (along with several old FS threads), which should give you an idea of where the prices were.

[Martin Sinescu]

10 minutes ago, scumdolly said:

There isn't a GPA for AFA stuff simply because AFA has a long history of poor database house keeping. AFA's registry is incredibly hard to navigate (and this is 10 years after its launch) and AFA's record keeping was really shoddy for the first 3-4 years (e.g., GI JOE 9-/21-/32-/34-backs, Cobra Commander Offers, and possibly Explosion Backs were never noted on the label--and probably database).

The best way to gauge price movements over a period of years is to do an extensive search on the various toy forums (where such discussion will probably exist), over a long-enough period of time, and then go from there. You probably don't need to do this for a common ROTJ AFA Y-80 figure, but if you're in the market for an AFA 85 SW 12-back or a GI JOE offerless 9-back Scarlett, then it's probably a good idea.

One thing you have to keep in mind, though, is that many of these back types, especially Explosion Backs, were not really recognized in the community around the beginning of AFA. It's a system that slowly fell into place over the years, evolving out of the same style of classification that had slowly developed with Star Wars. When I collected GI Joe in the mid-to-late 90's, it was really about the flat logo/peach file card figures versus getting the 3-D logo/grey file card. That was the real line in the sand. I don't really remember anyone (including the dealers I was buying from) bothering about the number of characters on the back (just "flat logo" or "3D logo"), but once AFA came along and started designating the backs, I started paying attention. As time went on, it became more refined to where Explosion Backs and offers started to separate from other releases and earlier versions (generally) came to be worth more, but, again, much of this system of segregating and defining cards for the sake of chronology wasn't really a "thing" until the early 2000's.

Also, I've only ever seen 1 offerless 9-back Scarlett. Was thought for a long time that she only existed on the CC offer 9-back. Truly a rarity.

[followtheleader]

Another potential Joe collection to purchase this weekend.   Not as exciting as some recently, but sizeable. 

I'll post some pics from recent purchases.  

Patrick

[scumdolly]

30 minutes ago, Martin Sinescu said:

One thing you have to keep in mind, though, is that many of these back types, especially Explosion Backs, were not really recognized in the community around the beginning of AFA. It's a system that slowly fell into place over the years, evolving out of the same style of classification that had slowly developed with Star Wars. When I collected GI Joe in the mid-to-late 90's, it was really about the flat logo/peach file card figures versus getting the 3-D logo/grey file card. That was the real line in the sand. I don't really remember anyone (including the dealers I was buying from) bothering about the number of characters on the back (just "flat logo" or "3D logo"), but once AFA came along and started designating the backs, I started paying attention. As time went on, it became more refined to where Explosion Backs and offers started to separate from other releases and earlier versions (generally) came to be worth more, but, again, much of this system of segregating and defining cards for the sake of chronology wasn't really a "thing" until the early 2000's.

Also, I've only ever seen 1 offerless 9-back Scarlett. Was thought for a long time that she only existed on the CC offer 9-back. Truly a rarity.

My feeling is that AFA came around late enough (post 2000-SLU) that an effort should have been made. Most certainly by 2003 at the very least.

Also, there is one (1) AFA 85 (subs 85 or better) offerless Scarlett 9-back. It's worth more than its weight in gold. Its label also doesn't specify it as being offerless, so AFA's registry still shows zero (0) offerless Scarlett 9-backs.

***I should also add: a proper classification system should have started earlier than later--especially since AFA was grading GI JOE in bulk (by 2003 at least). AFA had all sorts of examples to use for a better database system (even if the information wasn't generally available or accessible to most collectors/ toy forums).

Edited February 24, 2018 by scumdolly

[comix4fun]

There's an app called "Tracker For Vintage Star Wars Collectors" that collates sales data for all kinds of Star Wars figures, loose and carded.

I've looked it over but never used it. I know a few people that have found it useful.

 

[Shadow Images]

11 hours ago, comix4fun said:

There's an app called "Tracker For Vintage Star Wars Collectors" that collates sales data for all kinds of Star Wars figures, loose and carded.

I've looked it over but never used it. I know a few people that have found it useful.

 

The problem with Star Wars is condition is not always taken into account with the tracking data that is out there.

[comicwiz]

18 hours ago, Buzzetta said:

Wasn't there someone on the boards who was caught doing this?  He was faking sales to manipulate GPA... was it 1st Iron Fist?  Why is that standing out?

Buzz, I linked it in my earlier response - it was MP 15

[followtheleader]

 

Picked this up today.  Pretty clean and nice shape. 

The box is quite sturdy.  

Patrick

[Yorick]

It has been a long time since I've found cool toys at a thrift store.  These guys surprised me.

[Jimbo749]

Not plastic "crack", but at least it was meant to look like an action figure. Picked up a few Star Wars books during a $2 variant sale at the LCS.

[Broke as a Joke]

12 hours ago, followtheleader said:

 

Picked this up today.  Pretty clean and nice shape. 

The box is quite sturdy.  

Patrick

I usually love the Kenner packaging, but they really didn't put much effort into this one. 

[followtheleader]

11 hours ago, Broke as a Joke said:

I usually love the Kenner packaging, but they really didn't put much effort into this one. 

I totally hear you. 

A number of the figures are being hidden at the bottom because of my ship placement. 

I actually thought it was a good sales strategy as a kid would see exactly why the toy, and more importantly extra figures, would be fun to buy.   

Fairly unique as most other toys were literally visible whereas this one is a label. 

Patrick

[Comics4All]

On 2/25/2018 at 11:26 PM, followtheleader said:

 

Picked this up today.  Pretty clean and nice shape. 

The box is quite sturdy.  

Patrick

that is awesome! just missing the radar dish!

 

[comicwiz]

On 26/02/2018 at 11:28 AM, Broke as a Joke said:

I usually love the Kenner packaging, but they really didn't put much effort into this one. 

In fairness, that was the only box photo/art for the Falcon that was no reused for either a later wave, and/or for foreign release Falcons. As a Fett focus collector, I particularly liked it because it had him as one of the figures shown.