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CAPTAIN MARVEL starring Brie Larson (3/8/19)
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2,795 posts in this topic

2 hours ago, paperheart said:

No. 2 is Disney’s Captain Marvel with $8.5M-$9M today, and a $31.7M third weekend, -53% with a running total by Sunday of $318.1M. Today gets her to just over $294M; she’ll cross the three century mark on Saturday, her 16th day of release.

$400MM seems a stretch if these Deadline estimates hold.

As expected Us handily takes it down in its third week (zero competition for its first two weeks certainly was a huge benefit for this "okay" movie).

Next week Dumbo takes the kids and families as well as a big chunk of theaters.  

Shazam likely with the coup de grăce the following week, by taking all.of the repeat viewer hero fans, and another huge chunk of theaters.  

Does this get to $400MM domestic?  No.  

Does it have a path to a billion?

Probably.... 

-J.

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7 minutes ago, bronze_rules said:

Oh that's ok, here cutie... WTF... 

Spoiler

I know I dropped the willing suspension of disbelief at that point.  Never went to doctor, never did nuthin just-oh well it's just an eye-I got another- (shrug)

 

Edited by kav
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Spoiler

I can confirm a tiny scratch on eye is incredibly painful!!  A major eye-takin scratch?  That would NOT fit in the shrug oh well category!!!

 

Edited by kav
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On 2/26/2019 at 6:18 PM, ComicConnoisseur said:
On 2/26/2019 at 6:05 PM, drotto said:

Over under on CM vs. Wonder Woman?

 

Personally, I think WW will come out on top.

I am going out on a limb with Captain Marvel.

I don't see it as a CM vs Wonder Woman matchup,but more like Marvel event movie vs Wonder Woman.

 

Yep, I saw this as a Marvel event movie like Black Panther that`s why I figured Captain Marvel would beat Wonder Woman at the box office.

Marvel movies are like watching the Super Bowl now. They are events.

Captain Marvel Surpasses Wonder Woman's Box Office Haul

https://www.cbr.com/captain-marvel-wonder-woman-surpass-box-office/

 

Captain Marvel continues to soar at the worldwide box office during its third week in theaters.

As of yesterday, the Marvel Cinematic Universe film had earned over $825 million at the combined global box office, putting it ahead of 2017's Wonder Woman and 2002's Spider-Man, making it the 16th highest-earning superhero movie of all time.

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On 3/20/2019 at 5:38 PM, Chuck Gower said:

What if:

  Reveal hidden contents

the fluerkin removed the real space stone from the Tesseract and replaced Fury’s eye with it as a safe place to hide it? And the Tesseract we’ve seen is simply regenerating power it originally received from the stone, but just isn’t as powerful as the original?

 

This has possibilities. Made me think and interesting.

hm

Edited by ComicConnoisseur
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3 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

As expected Us handily takes it down in its third week (zero competition for its first two weeks certainly was a huge benefit for this "okay" movie).

Next week Dumbo takes the kids and families as well as a big chunk of theaters.  

Shazam likely with the coup de grăce the following week, by taking all.of the repeat viewer hero fans, and another huge chunk of theaters.  

Does this get to $400MM domestic?  No.  

Does it have a path to a billion?

Probably.... 

-J.

might squeak out a profit based on bizarro world accounting or $250MM based on real world accounting. #moviemathstillhard

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7 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

With a $300MM all-in, it might break even by the end of the weekend.  (thumbsu

-J.

:roflmao:

It's like you're a groundhog, popping up again only when movies you don't like surpass $800M worldwide.

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11 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

As expected Us handily takes it down in its third week (zero competition for its first two weeks certainly was a huge benefit for this "okay" movie).

Next week Dumbo takes the kids and families as well as a big chunk of theaters.  

Shazam likely with the coup de grăce the following week, by taking all.of the repeat viewer hero fans, and another huge chunk of theaters.  

Does this get to $400MM domestic?  No.  

Does it have a path to a billion?

Probably.... 

-J.

Actually, this movie is in pretty much the exact same position that Wonder Woman was in going into it’s 3rd weekend (where IT lost it's #1 spot)…except, ya know… $50 Million MORE domestically.

CM: $286,477,835

WW: $233,826,730

Wonder Woman got knocked out of the #1 spot by Cars 3 ($152 Million domestic) that 3rd week, then had Transformers: The Last Knight a week after that ($130 Million Domestically), Despicable Me 3 the week after that ($264 Million) (+Baby Driver at $103 Million) and Spider-Man: Homecoming ($334 Million) only a MONTH after it opened.

Whatever Dumbo, Shazam etc do, it’s not going to stop this movie from continuing on its pace of about a 50% drop each week, for a few more weeks, giving it at least $85+ Million left to add to its domestic total before Endgame.

If it ONLY drops the same as Wonder Woman and Black Panther during that same period (about 35% each week), it can break $400 Million domestically.

Even if it only does HALF of what Wonder Woman did in the same period, leading up to Captain Marvel having Endgame start, that’d still be another $70+ Million domestically.

Either way it puts it in the Top 7 of all MCU movies domestically and worldwide.

But, I'm sure you'll keep trying to discredit it, since your original prediction is pretty embarrassing: (in not even it's third weekend - $50 Million up on Doc Strange domestically and almost $100 Million up on it Foreign... without even it's third weekend!)

Screen Shot 2019-03-23 at 8.01.59 AM.png

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Captain Marvel is definitely benefiting substantially by being positioned between two massive Avengers movies with a rumored $1B dedicated to the end product. Getting Perlmutter out of the way allowed Feige to do these movies in a massive way, like they needed to be done.

Avengers 3 & 4 Budget May Cost Marvel Studios $1 Billion

Quote

At last month's African American Critics Association luncheon (via Atlanta Business Chronicle), Pinewood Atlanta Studios co-owner Dan Cathy cut loose with a jaw-dropping report that an unnamed film currently shooting at his studio is the largest film production ever with a $1 billion budget. Cathy was not allowed to name the production, but Avengers: Infinity War and its sequel Avengers 4 are currently filming at the Pinewood Complex (and Infinity Warwon't be done any time soon if Scarlett Johansson's recent comments are any indication).

And it is reasonable to believe the expense between the two films when the UK Department of Labor published details to convey how the film industry has contributed to local labor.

Disney Reveals Financial Muscle Of 'Avengers: Infinity War'

MCU_UK_expense01.PNG.b2d24e58d59e30679f0598f32a9d5e6c.PNG

It is definitely paying off for this film.

 

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3 hours ago, Chuck Gower said:

Actually, this movie is in pretty much the exact same position that Wonder Woman was in going into it’s 3rd weekend (where IT lost it's #1 spot)…except, ya know… $50 Million MORE domestically.

CM: $286,477,835

WW: $233,826,730

Wonder Woman got knocked out of the #1 spot by Cars 3 ($152 Million domestic) that 3rd week, then had Transformers: The Last Knight a week after that ($130 Million Domestically), Despicable Me 3 the week after that ($264 Million) (+Baby Driver at $103 Million) and Spider-Man: Homecoming ($334 Million) only a MONTH after it opened.

Whatever Dumbo, Shazam etc do, it’s not going to stop this movie from continuing on its pace of about a 50% drop each week, for a few more weeks, giving it at least $85+ Million left to add to its domestic total before Endgame.

If it ONLY drops the same as Wonder Woman and Black Panther during that same period (about 35% each week), it can break $400 Million domestically.

Even if it only does HALF of what Wonder Woman did in the same period, leading up to Captain Marvel having Endgame start, that’d still be another $70+ Million domestically.

Either way it puts it in the Top 7 of all MCU movies domestically and worldwide.

But, I'm sure you'll keep trying to discredit it, since your original prediction is pretty embarrassing: (in not even it's third weekend - $50 Million up on Doc Strange domestically and almost $100 Million up on it Foreign... without even it's third weekend!)

Screen Shot 2019-03-23 at 8.01.59 AM.png

Lol I love how you seem to believe people spitballing about box office predictions is somehow a test of intelligence.  And yet simultaneously you fail to a knowledge that most if not all of the success this movie is enjoying so far is based less on the quality, and more on being the last chapter before the end of an 11 year story.  (shrug)

To your point, your comparison above were summer movies.  This is not a summer movie and it does not have even a fraction of the zeitgeist of Black Panther (not sure why you even tried roping that in, this will not even sniff those domestic numbers). Captain Marvel got taken down by a low budget horror movie in week 3.  Right now this is actually following more like Venom (but with twice the opening weekend, obviously).  

-J.

Edited by Jaydogrules
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1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

 Captain Marvel got taken down by a low budget horror movie in week 3.  Right now this is actually following more like Venom (but with twice the opening weekend, obviously).

Yes - Captain Marvel will be taken down by a low-budget horror movie by an Oscar-winning director headlined by an Oscar-winning actress that's one of the most anticipated films of the spring.

As I recall, Venom got taken down not just by a low-budget horror movie in week 3 (Halloween) but also by a Lady Gaga musical (A Star Is Born).

Given that Captain Marvel will pass Venom's international total umm...today...I'm not sure the comparsion is apt.

Let's stick to Wonder Woman / Aquaman for comps.

Wonder Woman because it was a well-regarded female-led superhero film that passed $400M domestic at the box office.

And Aquaman, because while it fell well short of $350 million - let alone $400 million domestic -- at the box office, it easily surpassed $1 bn. globally

At this rate, Captain Marvel will pass Aquaman's total domestic take by next Saturday.

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15 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

Yes - Captain Marvel will be taken down by a low-budget horror movie by an Oscar-winning director headlined by an Oscar-winning actress that's one of the most anticipated films of the spring.

As I recall, Venom got taken down not just by a low-budget horror movie in week 3 (Halloween) but also by a Lady Gaga musical (A Star Is Born).

Given that Captain Marvel will pass Venom's international total umm...today...I'm not sure the comparsion is apt.

Let's stick to Wonder Woman / Aquaman for comps.

Wonder Woman because it was a well-regarded female-led superhero film that passed $400M domestic at the box office.

And Aquaman, because while it fell well short of $350 million - let alone $400 million domestic -- at the box office, it easily surpassed $1 bn. globally

At this rate, Captain Marvel will pass Aquaman's total domestic take by next Saturday.

You recall incorrectly.  Venom opened against A Star is Born and still went onto smash October records anyway.  Captain Marvel opened against....

Nothing.  

And in week 2 had competition from....

Nothing.

And then got taken down by a buzzy low budget horror movie in week 3 (kinda like Venom).

And I would hope for the sake of Marvel this would make more money than that given it had twice the all-in budget.

-J.

Edited by Jaydogrules
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16 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

You recall incorrectly.  Venom opened against A Star is Born and still went onto smash October records anyway.  Captain Marvel opened against....

Nothing.  

And in week 2 had competition from....

Nothing.

And then got taken down by a buzzy low budget horror movie in week 3 (kinda like Venom).

And I would hope for the sake of Marvel this would make more money than that given it had twice the all-in budget.

-J.

No. Nothing I said was inaccurate.

Venom was # 1 at the box office its first week...and its second week.

And then fell to # 3 in its third weekend -- against Halloween (which opened to # 1) and A Star Is Born (which did indeed open the same week as Venom, but rose to surpass it in their respective third weekends).

Call me when Captain Marvel finishes third this weekend.

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17 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

As expected Us handily takes it down in its third week (zero competition for its first two weeks certainly was a huge benefit for this "okay" movie).

Next week Dumbo takes the kids and families as well as a big chunk of theaters.  

Shazam likely with the coup de grăce the following week, by taking all.of the repeat viewer hero fans, and another huge chunk of theaters.  

Does this get to $400MM domestic?  No.  

Does it have a path to a billion?

Probably.... 

-J.

$400M Domestic>YES with a 2.61 multiple ($153 OW X 2.61 = $400M)

$1 Billion Worldwide >YES

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