1:10, 1:25, 1:50, 1:100 are DISTRIBUTION numbers, not PRINT RUN numbers. 0

[AnthonyTheAbyss]

As long as there's a correlation between the numbers (1:25, 1:50, etc.) and rarity they'll always be sought after.

[RockMyAmadeus]

As long as there's a correlation between the numbers (1:25, 1:50, etc.) and rarity they'll always be sought after.

 

There is no correlation between the numbers and rarity. They don't have anything to do with each other. That people use them because they "sound" impressive doesn't make it so. There are 1:100 books that are ultra common, and there are 1:10s that are pretty rare.

[manetteska]

As long as there's a correlation between the numbers (1:25, 1:50, etc.) and rarity they'll always be sought after.

 

There is no correlation between the numbers and rarity. They don't have anything to do with each other. That people use them because they "sound" impressive doesn't make it so. There are 1:100 books that are ultra common, and there are 1:10s that are pretty rare.

 

[Reno McCoy]

As long as there's a correlation between the numbers (1:25, 1:50, etc.) and rarity they'll always be sought after.

 

There is no correlation between the numbers and rarity. They don't have anything to do with each other. That people use them because they "sound" impressive doesn't make it so. There are 1:100 books that are ultra common, and there are 1:10s that are pretty rare.

 

I've never really tracked variants, but this post makes me think that even the "rare" variants can be plentiful. If that's the case, where do these variants go? Are they printed in mass quantities and sent into the secondary market later? Shipped to stores on the cheap months/years later?

 

This line of thought has me wondering how one could educate himself on how plentiful a particular variant might be. When a variant hits, there's a mad rush to secure a copy on eBay. That's when I dive in, figuring that even if I'm paying a premium, I'd rather have the book in my possession than risk it being too hard to find later. So assuming I learn to wait, how long before there's enough data to know if a particular book is actually "rare" or not?

[drotto]

Ultimately, the ratio means almost nothing, but it comes down to supply and demand. Hughes' Supergirl cover was a 1:10 ratio. There are plenty of copies going around, but yet the book is several hundred dollars. The Psylocke X-Men 510 by Campbell is another good example. These are not hard to find. I can go on eBay right now and find many for sale. They are in demand however and hold value and continue to sell.

 

Trying to imply rarity or use a ratio to manufacture demand, does nothing more then create false demand for a lot of books. It is the backbone of pump and dump. Thus the many variants that sell for $25 to $50 for a few weeks after release, and then can be had for under $10 several months later.

 

The lesson is chasing variants based on ratios will more often than not lose you money unless you are a dealer, or picking issues up at or very near cover, then selling quickly.

[AnthonyTheAbyss]

As long as there's a correlation between the numbers (1:25, 1:50, etc.) and rarity they'll always be sought after.

 

There is no correlation between the numbers and rarity. They don't have anything to do with each other. That people use them because they "sound" impressive doesn't make it so. There are 1:100 books that are ultra common, and there are 1:10s that are pretty rare.

 

You're right if you're comparing books that aren't the same (ie. a 1:25 Spiderman vs 1:25 Avengers...or whatever).

 

However, if the books are the "same" there is a correlation to rarity. Take for example Old Man Logan #66 Turner Variant. There are two of them...the color version (1:50) and the sketch version (1:100).

 

The sketch version is more rare no matter how you do the math. You buy 100 comics you'll get two color version and one sketch version...and so on...

 

 

***Rare is subject to interpretation (in this case I'm just saying there are less sketch versions)

Edited October 14, 2016 by AnthonyTheAbyss

[bababooey]

uh oh

 

 

 

 

[deathtohemingway]

As long as there's a correlation between the numbers (1:25, 1:50, etc.) and rarity they'll always be sought after.

 

There is no correlation between the numbers and rarity. They don't have anything to do with each other. That people use them because they "sound" impressive doesn't make it so. There are 1:100 books that are ultra common, and there are 1:10s that are pretty rare.

 

You're right if you're comparing books that aren't the same (ie. a 1:25 Spiderman vs 1:25 Avengers...or whatever).

 

However, if the books are the "same" there is a correlation to rarity. Take for example Old Man Logan #66 Turner Variant. There are two of them...the color version (1:50) and the sketch version (1:100).

 

The sketch version is more rare no matter how you do the math. You buy 100 comics you'll get two color version and one sketch version...and so on...

 

 

***Rare is subject to interpretation (in this case I'm just saying there are less sketch versions)

 

I think the point RMA is trying to make (now or any of the dozen other times) is that one of those is only rarer than the other if you are certain of how many were created in the first place.

 

If you print 50 of each, and then give all of one to retailers, and only half of the other, that does not make them more rare, it just makes one of them more immediately available.

 

It is a fair point that printing to order on these makes no sense. If you give exactly 854 of a 1:100 variant to stores, printing 854 is ridiculous, for many reasons. Damages, over run, contracted minimum print jobs, whatever.

 

So the argument is that without knowing how much of something actually exists in the first place, it is difficult to place a premium on its perceived rarity.

 

Which is true, without a doubt.

[AnthonyTheAbyss]

As long as there's a correlation between the numbers (1:25, 1:50, etc.) and rarity they'll always be sought after.

 

There is no correlation between the numbers and rarity. They don't have anything to do with each other. That people use them because they "sound" impressive doesn't make it so. There are 1:100 books that are ultra common, and there are 1:10s that are pretty rare.

 

You're right if you're comparing books that aren't the same (ie. a 1:25 Spiderman vs 1:25 Avengers...or whatever).

 

However, if the books are the "same" there is a correlation to rarity. Take for example Old Man Logan #66 Turner Variant. There are two of them...the color version (1:50) and the sketch version (1:100).

 

The sketch version is more rare no matter how you do the math. You buy 100 comics you'll get two color version and one sketch version...and so on...

 

 

***Rare is subject to interpretation (in this case I'm just saying there are less sketch versions)

 

I think the point RMA is trying to make (now or any of the dozen other times) is that one of those is only rarer than the other if you are certain of how many were created in the first place.

 

If you print 50 of each, and then give all of one to retailers, and only half of the other, that does not make them more rare, it just makes one of them more immediately available.

 

It is a fair point that printing to order on these makes no sense. If you give exactly 854 of a 1:100 variant to stores, printing 854 is ridiculous, for many reasons. Damages, over run, contracted minimum print jobs, whatever.

 

So the argument is that without knowing how much of something actually exists in the first place, it is difficult to place a premium on its perceived rarity.

 

Which is true, without a doubt.

 

I'm going to borrow this from manetteska...

 

 

***Informative thread.

[drotto]

People finding "rare" variants in 3 and 4 dollar grab bags is proof that more of these are printed than given out to retailers. The companies make reasonable assumptions of overall sales on any given book, plus some overage on all print runs. Variants are no different. There are more copies than were sent to stores, and there are more copies than most collects actually want there to be.

[sleepindeath]

People finding "rare" variants in 3 and 4 dollar grab bags is proof that more of these are printed than given out to retailers. The companies make reasonable assumptions of overall sales on any given book, plus some overage on all print runs. Variants are no different. There are more copies than were sent to stores, and there are more copies than most collects actually want there to be.

 

Like I said earlier... if book X sells 80,000 copies and there is a 1:100 variant why not print the 800 variants in order to fill orders, back ups for damages and to have a fire sale in three packs or their monthly variant blowout.

[jreezy]

People finding "rare" variants in 3 and 4 dollar grab bags is proof that more of these are printed than given out to retailers. The companies make reasonable assumptions of overall sales on any given book, plus some overage on all print runs. Variants are no different. There are more copies than were sent to stores, and there are more copies than most collects actually want there to be.

 

If anyone is finding the following books in 3 and 4 dollar grab bags, let me know.

 

Siege 3 Campbell variant

Black Cat #1 Campbell variant

 

I will pay $10 since there might be 1k or 100k copies stored somewhere.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Hey Rock,

 

just a quick thought...what if for example Amazing Spider-Man #? sold this month Diamond received 80,000 orders. I would believe that Diamond would insure that they have 800 Copies of a 1:100 Variant available even though like you said the ratio should not be considered an easy divide calculation.

 

Maybe this is why we see highly sought after variants making their way to 3 packs and whatnot?

 

 

There are competing factors involved that render even those estimates inaccurate.

 

We know that the publisher must print a minimum number of copies to fulfill qualifying orders.

 

And, not every store is going to qualify for the incentive, and/or there will be a lot of "remainders" where a retailer orders 137 copies of the regular, with a 1:100 incentive, meaning there are 37 additional copies that muck up the numbers times however many retailers do the same thing.

 

So, even a "best case" scenario would have Diamond needing 800 copies, presuming each store ordered exactly enough to qualify at each increment (that is, 100, 200, 500, 1000, etc.) with no remainder.

 

But, as we know, that's not how it works. so the number of incentives necessary by Diamond is almost always less than the ratio of the corresponding total number of regular copies sold would indicate.

 

This is where the "there's fewer than X copies printed" crowd STOPS, and that is where they make their mistake.

 

Because what Diamond needs, and what the publishers print, are two entirely different beasts.

 

We know that publishers routinely overprint these incentives, because they've been sold by Diamond to retailers after the fact, sometimes long after the fact, in quantities that don't correspond to "filling a case" (which is, all said, a silly idea. I've seen plenty of partially shipped cases FROM DIAMOND when I was working for distributors. If Diamond can, and does, make partial cases, there's no reason whatsoever that the printers can't, either. What do they do with a print run of 50? 100? Print enough to fill the case? Of course not.)

 

And printing more than is required for qualifying orders is not speculation; that's documented. And so, in that respect, we find that the amount of incentive copies printed is sometimes/occasionally/frequently/almost always more than the ratio of the corresponding total number of regular copies sold would indicate.

 

And...perhaps most importantly...the ratios, 1:10, 1:25, 1:58,294 have never, ever, ever, EVER been presented by either Diamond OR the publishers as anything other than an incentive for ordering. You will find nothing...not one scrap of information...that says those ratios are related to print runs, ever...because they're not, and never have been (with exceptions that make the rule, like VEI claims to be.)

 

It's simple: "retailer, order this many and you can get a copy of the incentive."

 

That's all it's ever meant. If it meant something else, someone, somewhere would have said something about it. "retailer...order this many, and we will PRINT TO ORDER a copy of the incentive."

 

That's not what they say. It's always been "order this many, and qualify for an incentive." That's it.

 

"But, that should even it out, right! If 80,000 regulars are ordered, then 800 1:100s are printed, even if only 500 are qualified for, so that leaves 300 or so for Diamond to blow out! Makes perfect sense!"

 

Sounds reasonable, right...? Except no, because 1. we have no idea how many incentives were qualified for, which means 2. we don't know how many Diamond has leftover (but we DO know that leftover amounts have sometimes been quite significant), which we couldn't know anyways without knowing the total printed to start with, which we don't know because 3. the publishers print what they want, and don't reveal that information to anyone. I suspect not even Diamond knows.

 

When you toss in that INCREDIBLE number of unknown variables, it's thoroughly impossible to come up with anything that even resembles a reasonable estimate.

 

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

People finding "rare" variants in 3 and 4 dollar grab bags is proof that more of these are printed than given out to retailers. The companies make reasonable assumptions of overall sales on any given book, plus some overage on all print runs. Variants are no different. There are more copies than were sent to stores, and there are more copies than most collects actually want there to be.

 

If anyone is finding the following books in 3 and 4 dollar grab bags, let me know.

 

Siege 3 Campbell variant

Black Cat #1 Campbell variant

 

I will pay $10 since there might be 1k or 100k copies stored somewhere.

 

There might be. At one time, I owned 20% of the entire print run of one particular variant.

 

I still own over 10% of several other variants (Brigade #1 Gold, for example.) Stored in boxes. Unavailable to the public.

 

At one time, Neatstuffcollectibles owned a good 1/3rd of the supposed print run...3,000 copies...of Spiderman #1 Platinum...that Marvel had held for 15 years.

 

It's certainly not unheard of.

[jreezy]

also, this only applies to marvel and DC ?

[ygogolak]

also, this only applies to marvel and DC ?

 

Why would it?

[jreezy]

also, this only applies to marvel and DC ?

 

Why would it?

 

that's my question.what about indie books? indie books seem to be more transparent in regards to their print run. no?

[Aweandlorder]

I have a friend who has a short box full of Wolverine #145 Nabisco variants he bought off a warehouse clearance a few years ago. He wouldnt sell ONE of them.

[RockMyAmadeus]

As long as there's a correlation between the numbers (1:25, 1:50, etc.) and rarity they'll always be sought after.

 

There is no correlation between the numbers and rarity. They don't have anything to do with each other. That people use them because they "sound" impressive doesn't make it so. There are 1:100 books that are ultra common, and there are 1:10s that are pretty rare.

 

You're right if you're comparing books that aren't the same (ie. a 1:25 Spiderman vs 1:25 Avengers...or whatever).

 

However, if the books are the "same" there is a correlation to rarity. Take for example Old Man Logan #66 Turner Variant. There are two of them...the color version (1:50) and the sketch version (1:100).

 

The sketch version is more rare no matter how you do the math. You buy 100 comics you'll get two color version and one sketch version...and so on...

 

 

***Rare is subject to interpretation (in this case I'm just saying there are less sketch versions)

 

Your reasoning sounds logical, but it is based on an assumption that cannot be proven, which is, 1:50 of the same book are printed to the tune of twice the 1:100s.

 

You don't know. Nobody knows. It appears that that's the case, that the 1:50 is more common than the 1:100, and it probably is the case...but you don't know for sure. No one but Marvel and the printer does.

 

People casually look at it and assume, as you have, that a 1:50 is twice as common as a 1:100.

 

And that might be true, in an absolute sense. But it's not something that can be proven. Marvel could have printed the same amount of both. They could have printed MORE of the 1:100s than the 1:50s.

 

We don't know. What's important is that those ratios mean nothing other than telling a retailer how many regular copies he/she has to order to qualify for an incentive. Otherwise, they are absolutely meaningless.

 

[Broke as a Joke]

So an incentive could have a higher print run than the non incentive? In theory of course...