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Original Art Aficionado [New Article - 1/12/17]
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491 posts in this topic

I have never been much of a player as a buyer in comic art (i.e., never even four figures), and I'm a vanishingly small one as an illustration art buyer.  But, I appreciate the opportunity to check out new (to me) art.

I am reminded of this viewpoint of a boardie about pricing....

"My experience has been that, as you mentioned there seems to be a flurry in the first few days, but it often takes time to move pieces that are priced beyond a certain dollar value, unless you just happen to expose the piece to a person who has a strong sentimentality to it that dispels the financial implications. "

I see myself as a collector who is likely to end up with too much stuff to get rid of before the end comes, so I am mostly a looker, reluctant to add to my current collections.  It has been enjoyable to resell earlier purchases, but it is daunting if your expectation level is high.

I appreciated Zaddick's honesty about the speculative nature of "investing" in art.  David  

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1 hour ago, vodou said:

 

Agree with both of you, lots of great/interesting art. Plenty of fun priced in the hundreds. And I think that stuff, all quality imagery and by price alone, has enough honey to always draw the necessary number of flies. The question is my mind is how many of you would leap at (buy) "nice stuff" - with no other connection to anything you're into - in the four figure category? If it's not many of you, that's part of the problem there, that the prices are tiered on a model that many of us don't get* and when list price exceeds obvious visual fun factor, we check out...look but don't touch.. Certainly there's no shortage of folks around here that would scratch their head at how one (fine art) abstract can be priced at $5k and another (seemingly quite similar in all ways) will hammer at heated auction for $5m. This is the same scenario. Right? Maybe I'm all hot air...somebody, hopefully a bunch of you, please shoot me down.

 

* Artists we don't follow/collect, appreciation for vintage magazines/advertising that we don't buy into the same as previous generations did, etc.

Vodou,
You're right on target.
In a nutshell, virtually no nostalgic pull with illustration. Couple people I know are looking for specific pieces by children's book artists from book they read as kids. Other than that, it's image and somewhat artist driven.

A lot of the illustration art in Heritage auctions are bought by other dealers. The cheaper (under $1000) bought by lower level dealers and collectors. There are still some high end collectors buying the better pieces.

MI

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On 1/1/2018 at 8:01 AM, artdealer said:

Vodou,
You're right on target.
In a nutshell, virtually no nostalgic pull with illustration. Couple people I know are looking for specific pieces by children's book artists from book they read as kids. Other than that, it's image and somewhat artist driven.

A lot of the illustration art in Heritage auctions are bought by other dealers. The cheaper (under $1000) bought by lower level dealers and collectors. There are still some high end collectors buying the better pieces.

MI

I would add that the person looking at the purchase, to spend past say that 1k mark, needs to have some mental justification from either the artist or the content as you noted.   

The artists for most 60s-90s illos aren't well known or publicized, so big prices are mostly going to be driven on big content or on the few well known artists.

For all the Stan Lee gets from some quarters, his crediting the artists from the 60s on was hugely progressive at the time and the only reason any gives a flying phvck about 90% of the comic artists that are out there.     You take away those credits, you take away the ability for people to connect to the art.    

Buyers need a real connection to spend real money.     

Edited by Bronty
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33 minutes ago, Bronty said:

Buyers need a real connection to spend real money.     

Are we now defining real money as $1k+? Not trying to be a jerk asking that, but I think the real money bar in comic art is much higher. I don't know re: Illustration, except based on my own spending habits...which seemed to be mirrored in Mitch's (artdealer) reply to my post. My bar is $1k on that stuff, over that and I need to know how best to position it to the next guy. (Because I'm pretty sure it will look nice on my wall but for more than $1k there will also be a 'next guy'...with certainty.) Thinking about it now, even my own (real money) line on comic art is much higher...I think because I like it more (than illustration, in the aggregate) and that means...for the money, these will tend to be keepers. There is no certainty of a 'next guy' and thus no additional justification to spend needed.

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Just now, vodou said:

Are we now defining real money as $1k+?

No not really.    The last sentence was a standalone statement.   Real money means different things to different people.  

The 1k point of reference was in response to previous posts including yours.

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3 minutes ago, Bronty said:

Real money means different things to different people.

It sure does, and I think we've batted that around before with Gene, where the threshold is 25% of net worth or 15% of gross annual income...something like that, removing the specific $ amount and instead treating it as a pain point reference. But maybe we can still draw a line, real money, for "the comic art hobby"? I'm thinking it's 30k (on a single piece) where the pyramid starts getting pretty narrow. Really want to say $20k, because it seems there are plenty of "look what I just got in" after every big auction in the 10-20k range but 20-30k, while lighter still feels just like an extension of the same 10-20k dynamic; maybe there are just less offerings that price out there, more tend to go lower or (much?!) higher? Dunno, thinking aloud.

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Well, its all so subjective.    If 30k is real money in comic art, we have to go way higher on illo art as well.     You're defining it as the top few % of transactions, I'm looking at it more from the angle of the average (median?) buyer and what starts to be noticeable to his pocketbook.   Two very different but both useful ways of putting some substance to those words.

 

Edited by Bronty
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On 1/1/2018 at 9:01 AM, vodou said:

 

Agree with both of you, lots of great/interesting art. Plenty of fun priced in the hundreds. And I think that stuff, all quality imagery and by price alone, has enough honey to always draw the necessary number of flies. The question is my mind is how many of you would leap at (buy) "nice stuff" - with no other connection to anything you're into - in the four figure category? If it's not many of you, that's part of the problem there, that the prices are tiered on a model that many of us don't get* and when list price exceeds obvious visual fun factor, we check out...look but don't touch.. Certainly there's no shortage of folks around here that would scratch their head at how one (fine art) abstract can be priced at $5k and another (seemingly quite similar in all ways) will hammer at heated auction for $5m. This is the same scenario. Right? Maybe I'm all hot air...somebody, hopefully a bunch of you, please shoot me down.

 

* Artists we don't follow/collect, appreciation for vintage magazines/advertising that we don't buy into the same as previous generations did, etc.

 

This board will never get tired of discussing valuation. This is likely because we all know that these pages have no commodity or entity backing their value, and when you're dealing with these type of objects, what has value today could have stigma tomorrow. I think half of the time we see these discussions it is in the form of group therapy sessions.

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27 minutes ago, O. said:

New Article - 5/1/18

Report on Q4 2017 eBay auctions is up!

https://comicbookinvest.com/2018/01/05/market-report-q4-2017-ebay-auctions/

 

Skimming now, looks good. The plethora of Don Newton Batman art has been something else to bid on and watch. I won one and lost all the rest lol

That one you show selling for $737...I think that price already looks good and will be look even better in the future. I'm going to say I was the direct underbidder or right in there at around $700ish. Should have pushed to $850 in hindsight. There was a nice Joker panel page (iirc no Batman though) that went oddly low for around the same number iirc. Anyway, as you note a concentration of art that sold very well in a short period of time. I didn't notice any much taper off at any point, no real steals (except maybe Joker above?), all completely absorbed for around FMV to 15% over; the one I got...slightly under fmv ;)

Disagree with this statement, Even though it doesn’t feature her, decent non-Mantis pages like this one, hailing from her 1st Appearance issue, should probably fetch premiums to pages from other issues in the surrounding run. Non-appearance pages from 1st Appearance issues...nothing special (and no premium should apply) beyond whatever the actual content is imo. Unless one or more parties are actively attempting to put the story/book back together. And even so, that's more attributable to the completion attempt not the 1st Appearances on other pages aspect, except as it may be a driver behind the completion attempt.

Paul Ryan FF -20+ years old- at sub-$200 for panels with action...agree a pretty good deal for fans of mainstream Marvel art. I've moved on from going after this stuff except on a lark, bid on both of those you show but ended up letting them go over $100. My first OA was a FF splash by Paul, many years ago. My dealer table was set up next to his. Paul's quiet and friendly demeanor made me first a customer and then a friend.

Was interested (and bid) on the Phillips Marvel Zombies dps...couldn't get excited over about $700 though...it's a very played out property (imo) and...for Zombies I want grotesqueness and gore. This one is more about being a dps than g 'n g ;). $910 too much imo, especially with how much of the stuff his dealer is still sitting on. If it sells again at open auction in the next year or two, I predict an even lower number (and I'd probably be more at the $5xx bid level myself).

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On 1/2/2018 at 3:41 PM, vodou said:

It sure does, and I think we've batted that around before with Gene, where the threshold is 25% of net worth or 15% of gross annual income...something like that, removing the specific $ amount and instead treating it as a pain point reference. But maybe we can still draw a line, real money, for "the comic art hobby"? I'm thinking it's 30k (on a single piece) where the pyramid starts getting pretty narrow. Really want to say $20k, because it seems there are plenty of "look what I just got in" after every big auction in the 10-20k range but 20-30k, while lighter still feels just like an extension of the same 10-20k dynamic; maybe there are just less offerings that price out there, more tend to go lower or (much?!) higher? Dunno, thinking aloud.

To me, it's not just a "pain point" so much as a "value point." This past year, I threw some money in some stocks and realized an annual rate of return of well over 25%. Admittedly, a very good year, but there it is. With OA, I figure I would lose money unless I held it for at least several years because buying it means you outbid everyone else at auction, or, you are selling to a dealer. And since I hold no hope that the bulk of this stuff will hold its value in 20 years, I wouldn't put "pain money" into any of it. That's just a wasted asset. So, there is no way I would throw in 30K for this stuff, not even 20K.  

Every once in a while, I have "inflicted" my hobby on my gf. Her basic response is that it is all just "black and white" and she doesn't see any differences (She's seen my color pieces and isn't too impressed with them, either). And, she feels the same about other comic art subjects, too (except the Amy Reeder sketch I had done of her which she loves). This is the sort of view which is why the most optimistic among fans ought to be tempered. Much like Chinese calligraphy, it isn't going to have widespread appeal.

I think there really is a dividing line at $1,000, but I will go up to $2,000 if I want something. Were I to find a piece I really, really wanted, and I felt like burning some money, maybe up to $10K.  

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hoping someone can explain - why a page from a first appearance comic without that character on that page means anything special. When I buy a first appearance comic - that character appears in the comic, but with art - the work is parsed out page by page, and as such  -there are clear have and have nots there. 

the page in the article (image below) is an outstanding page imo. artistically that is and features characters I like - so the price doesn't bother me, but  when Rich says that the mantis appearance is a factor, I just can't see why?   I know that there is a page from amazing spiderman 129 for sale for 15k out there -but without Punisher. for me -such a page should be valued the same as similar pages (content wise) from other issues in that time period/run.

any thoughts?

av112.jpg

Edited by Panelfan1
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1 hour ago, Rick2you2 said:

To me, it's not just a "pain point" so much as a "value point." This past year, I threw some money in some stocks and realized an annual rate of return of well over 25%. Admittedly, a very good year, but there it is. With OA, I figure I would lose money unless I held it for at least several years because buying it means you outbid everyone else at auction, or, you are selling to a dealer. And since I hold no hope that the bulk of this stuff will hold its value in 20 years, I wouldn't put "pain money" into any of it. That's just a wasted asset. So, there is no way I would throw in 30K for this stuff, not even 20K.  

Every once in a while, I have "inflicted" my hobby on my gf. Her basic response is that it is all just "black and white" and she doesn't see any differences (She's seen my color pieces and isn't too impressed with them, either). And, she feels the same about other comic art subjects, too (except the Amy Reeder sketch I had done of her which she loves). This is the sort of view which is why the most optimistic among fans ought to be tempered. Much like Chinese calligraphy, it isn't going to have widespread appeal.

I think there really is a dividing line at $1,000, but I will go up to $2,000 if I want something. Were I to find a piece I really, really wanted, and I felt like burning some money, maybe up to $10K.  

Yes this is you, and there's nothing wrong with that. I actually collect (and speculate) using similar metrics and it's why I don't speculate on comic art...the path ahead isn't nearly as robust in appearance as the trail behind. Not so with other things I do speculate on, and it helps to be open to alternatives - separating what you like from what you want to take a position in. This is also good when the right time to sell arrives...it isn't nearly as hard to give up (for 10x what you paid!) "nice painting x" versus the splash page to your first (and favorite) comic from when you were 12.

However...my comment was directed more toward where the hobby's pain point is on the whole, not any individual, to try to find where the equilibrium of buyers over sellers starts to shift to more sellers than buyers. Where the price bottleneck lies and then identifying just a bit past that (which is the tell for when your stuff may have ripened on the vine, time to sell before it rots!) Example: everybody in comic art would take any Neal Adams Batman cover for less than $5k...even if it meant robbing your own mother at gunpoint to "have the cash in and today". Even if that's not the art you dig, there's enough others that do above that price point that it's a super easy flip, today, for (at least!!) 20% or $6k. No-brainer. But make that number $15k and then one starts to think about "which cover?" in "what condition?" and "can I really afford it, on spec if I don't want to keep it?" This because you're getting closer to the bottleneck (but not really close) for Adams Batman covers. Make that number $50k and it had better be a very specific cover and you'd better have access to who else would want it or a reasonable assurance (contractual guarantee) of performance at HA. So this isn't just about Adams Batman, but really the hobby as a whole since the bell-shaped curve of interest/income/disposable lies roughly at x and as more and more "less than A+" material gets there...one does have to wonder. Right? About the whole thing I mean. Especially those of us that have reconfigured our entire retirement landscape because that dark horse we threw a bunch of money at when we were young and stupid (heh) turned out to win the race and is now (but not forever) paying out 25:1!

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1 hour ago, vodou said:

Example: everybody in comic art would take any Neal Adams Batman cover for less than $5k...even if it meant robbing your own mother at gunpoint to "have the cash in and today". Even if that's not the art you dig, there's enough others that do above that price point that it's a super easy flip, today, for (at least!!) 20% or $6k

Honestly, not everyone. The extra $1,000 wouldn't be worth the aggravation to me; and it isn't because I couldn't use an extra $1,000. What you are describing is work. I do enough work; sometimes, 7 days a week if that's what is needed. This is play time. It's digging up the pleasant memories of my childhood; a time when money didn't matter too much as long as I had my weekly allowance. 

What frightens me a little is the number of people here who really believe the stuff they buy now is going to be a great investment. All they have to do is watch some revamped episodes of Antiques Roadshow, where an old episode of 15 years ago shows current pricing. I'd say about 1/3 are lower or equal, and some of the ones which are up are not up a lot. 

The ugly part is that "A+" material. A+ antique material has often dropped in price because it doesn't reflect what people lived with when growing up. A typical example is "brown furniture", antiques from the 17th-19th century. Their actual prices have typically dropped, and the prices which have held don't move well. 

I think you will see the same thing with that A+ OA. Prior to the 1960's, there was an awful lot of 6 panel illustration. Even in the 1960's and 1970's, a lot of it was pretty rigid even if the artist was excellent at his craft. 

Here is a Mac Raboy page from Captain Marvel Jr. from the web. I think it's excellent, but is it to modern tastes? I think not. And if it is actually out there, I doubt it will appreciate:

 

CMJ_019_014br-copy.gif

 

 

 

 

Edited by Rick2you2
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1 hour ago, Rick2you2 said:

Honestly, not everyone. The extra $1,000 wouldn't be worth the aggravation to me; and it isn't because I couldn't use an extra $1,000. What you are describing is work. I do enough work; sometimes, 7 days a week if that's what is needed. This is play time. It's digging up the pleasant memories of my childhood; a time when money didn't matter too much as long as I had my weekly allowance. 

What frightens me a little is the number of people here who really believe the stuff they buy now is going to be a great investment. All they have to do is watch some revamped episodes of Antiques Roadshow, where an old episode of 15 years ago shows current pricing. I'd say about 1/3 are lower or equal, and some of the ones which are up are not up a lot. 

The ugly part is that "A+" material. A+ antique material has often dropped in price because it doesn't reflect what people lived with when growing up. A typical example is "brown furniture", antiques from the 17th-19th century. Their actual prices have typically dropped, and the prices which have held don't move well. 

I think you will see the same thing with that A+ OA. Prior to the 1960's, there was an awful lot of 6 panel illustration. Even in the 1960's and 1970's, a lot of it was pretty rigid even if the artist was excellent at his craft. 

Here is a Mac Raboy page from Captain Marvel Jr. from the web. I think it's excellent, but is it to modern tastes? I think not. And if it is actually out there, I doubt it will appreciate:

 

CMJ_019_014br-copy.gif

 

 

 

 

just to understand - your view is that  art going forward, will plateau or go down in price. not appreciate.  for the past little while art has appreciated, but you feel the factors that made that happen have ended or will end soon and thats when comic art will stop being desirable and therefore drop or maintain current prices? therefore a terrible investment as we have hit the peak?   or is there a window of time that you see comic art as still growing in value?

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1 hour ago, Panelfan1 said:

just to understand - your view is that  art going forward, will plateau or go down in price. not appreciate.  for the past little while art has appreciated, but you feel the factors that made that happen have ended or will end soon and thats when comic art will stop being desirable and therefore drop or maintain current prices? therefore a terrible investment as we have hit the peak?   or is there a window of time that you see comic art as still growing in value?

Not soon, but in a longer time span, yes. It will follow the trend of many collectible objects. People tend to collect the things they grew up with. Demand drives up prices. 

A lot of OA collectors are buying stuff which reminds them of their childhood. They include baby boomers and others with more discretionary income than when they were younger. Naturally, they drove up the prices on the stuff from the 1960's and 1970's. As they fade from the scene, or find other things they need to buy, there will be less demand and prices will stop moving up (Pricing tends to be sticky, so the price will often list high with no one buying until it's really out-of-whack or someone needs $$). Since the number of people buying comics has dropped, so will interest in OA. And while the newer stuff will continue to go up as the 1960's to 1970's stuff levels off, there is a lot more newer stuff and a lot of it was saved. Excess supply keeps prices down.

Collectible markets tend to "hollow out." The big ticket items keep their big tickets, but the medium-priced stuff, of which there is a lot, tend to drop first. The stuff at the bottom is already cheap so it tends to hold for a while. Although, based on one dealer's off-hand comment, we may also be seeing some slippage there, too, for stuff not done by "hot" artists. 

I think we may have seen a levelling off of some OA, but for at least the next 5 years, things should still go up. In 20 years, things will definitely head down. It's the period in between which will be in flux. 

 

If you want to invest in collectibles, give this stuff a shot. I grabbed this listing off of eBay. When I saw the asking price, I almost choked.

Bandai Original TamaGotchi White & Red Virtual 1996 - 1997 New VERY RARE!!!!!

Very rare, the manufacture made very few of those with this color, this is the real thing not like others that are fake.
$4,000.00
From Israel
$15.00 shipping
Brand: Bandai

By the way, let me add that collectibles, in general, are a dangerous market. Today it's sneakers, tomorrow it's TamaGotchi's.

 

Edited by Rick2you2
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On 2018-01-06 at 3:18 PM, Rick2you2 said:

Not soon, but in a longer time span, yes. It will follow the trend of many collectible objects. People tend to collect the things they grew up with. Demand drives up prices. 

A lot of OA collectors are buying stuff which reminds them of their childhood. They include baby boomers and others with more discretionary income than when they were younger. Naturally, they drove up the prices on the stuff from the 1960's and 1970's. As they fade from the scene, or find other things they need to buy, there will be less demand and prices will stop moving up (Pricing tends to be sticky, so the price will often list high with no one buying until it's really out-of-whack or someone needs $$). Since the number of people buying comics has dropped, so will interest in OA. And while the newer stuff will continue to go up as the 1960's to 1970's stuff levels off, there is a lot more newer stuff and a lot of it was saved. Excess supply keeps prices down.

Collectible markets tend to "hollow out." The big ticket items keep their big tickets, but the medium-priced stuff, of which there is a lot, tend to drop first. The stuff at the bottom is already cheap so it tends to hold for a while. Although, based on one dealer's off-hand comment, we may also be seeing some slippage there, too, for stuff not done by "hot" artists. 

I think we may have seen a levelling off of some OA, but for at least the next 5 years, things should still go up. In 20 years, things will definitely head down. It's the period in between which will be in flux. 

 

If you want to invest in collectibles, give this stuff a shot. I grabbed this listing off of eBay. When I saw the asking price, I almost choked.

Bandai Original TamaGotchi White & Red Virtual 1996 - 1997 New VERY RARE!!!!!

Very rare, the manufacture made very few of those with this color, this is the real thing not like others that are fake.
$4,000.00
From Israel
$15.00 shipping
Brand: Bandai

By the way, let me add that collectibles, in general, are a dangerous market. Today it's sneakers, tomorrow it's TamaGotchi's.

 

My, my.  Who are all of these 85-95 year olds who were around when Action comics #1 came out and are spending hundreds of thousands, and even millions of dollars for a copy?  They must be extremely nostalgic and very well off, eh?

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