General discussion thread - keep the other threads clean 29 29

[Black_Adam]

Just discovered this discussion and wanted to throw in my own 

There have been many good points made on both sides and, being Canadian, I naturally agree with all of them.

Rick's frequent sales threads always seem to be popular, especially with certain buyers who seem to gobble up almost anything he lays in front of them (and are obviously happy with the price paid as they keep coming back for more) but I learned early on to search out any comic he listed I had an interest in and almost always found a recent sale for the same book either here on the boards or on one of the usual sites (eBay, Heritage, Comiclink, etc.). This is useful info.

Case in point: On a thread last summer I noticed Rick had a Shock Suspenstories #6 (CGC 6.5) listed for $1350. I knew this exact same comic had sold on Heritage just over a month earlier as I had been watching it and even made a half-hearted bid. The price paid (including Buyer's premium) had been $1,080 so I figured Rick had $1,100 in this comic.

As luck would have it, Rick had PM'd me just weeks earlier. He was interested in a GGA comic I had posted on the Golden Age thread, he said it was a personal favorite and made me a fair offer ($800). I declined.

Now, seeing a book in his thread I wanted, and knowing what he had into it, I struck. I offered him a straight-up trade. He countered with a trade and $250 headed his way. I suggested $200 instead and a deal was made.

I now have the comic I wanted (posted below in all it's glory - and I honestly feel even at $1,350 it would have been a fair deal as a CGC 5.5 just sold on Comiclink for $1,221). The comic Rick wanted was posted for sale in his most recent thread with no takers.

My point is there are many flippers here on the boards, but that doesn't mean there aren't good deals to be made if you do your homework. 

And if you lose out on a comic at auction and are frustrated when you see it listed here at a higher price there is only one lesson to be learned - next time, bid higher.

 

[skypinkblu]

Nice book! and a great way to deal. 

 

[Bird]

26 minutes ago, Black_Adam said:

And if you lose out on a comic at auction and are frustrated when you see it listed here at a higher price there is only one lesson to be learned - next time, bid higher.

Yes, but the flip side (see what I did there) is that had the flipper not purchased the book to flip then the price would likely have been lower and perhaps much lower. Then the flipper adds his flipping flipness to it and it is sky high. But now the prior sale is evidence of "fmv" when all it is was evidence of deep flipping pockets. 

There is no right or wrong here, just different approaches. I see more than one lesson in your scenario, I see a lesson of bid what you are comfortable at and another book will be along shortly to gobble up your dollars.

Edited March 2, 2019 by Bird
so that $1080 auction may have been much lower if no flipping opp was perceived, and then it gets to $1350 here on the boards. So a $800-$950 book becomes a $1350 book with gpa last sale to prop it up a bit

[manetteska]

21 minutes ago, Bird said:

Yes, but the flip side (see what I did there) is that had the flipper not purchased the book to flip then the price would likely have been lower and perhaps much lower. Then the flipper adds his flipping flipness to it and it is sky high. But now the prior sale is evidence of "fmv" when all it is was evidence of deep flipping pockets. 

There is no right or wrong here, just different approaches. I see more than one lesson in your scenario, I see a lesson of bid what you are comfortable at and another book will be along shortly to gobble up your dollars.

This is even more glaring in GA. If you are second bidder on an ASM 1 there are many others available. Usually GA is one and done (for quite some time; or available next week on the boards). 

This may be more “opportunist” than “knowing the market”. How can one know the market if a book has not been sold publicly (Heritage, CL, etc) in five years? I think too much credit is given. 

[Black_Adam]

9 minutes ago, Bird said:

Yes, but the flip side (see what I did there) is that had the flipper not purchased the book to flip then the price would likely have been lower and perhaps much lower. Then the flipper adds his flipping flipness to it and it is sky high. But now the prior sale is evidence of "fmv" when all it is was evidence of deep flipping pockets.

There is no right or wrong here, just different approaches. I see more than one lesson in your scenario, I see a lesson of bid what you are comfortable at and another book will be along shortly to gobble up your dollars.

I agree, but hope this very simplistic example illustrates my personal point of view:

A seller has a comic listed that everyone agrees - FMV, GPA, whatever - is worth $1,000. Issues in this grade (most of the comics I bid on aren't a 9 on the Gerber scale) sell regularly for this amount.

I want this comic but also want a deal so I am hoping to get it at 20% lower - $800.

A flipper immediately outbids me to $900.

At this point I could bid $950 - with shipping I will probably be paying close to FMV - or I could just bid $1,000 - the amount the seller is hoping to get. Also, the flipper at this point is likely to drop out as if he bids $1,050 (and adds shipping) it is going to be awhile before he is going to make any profit on his investment. Instead, I reluctantly drop out of the bidding and decide to wait - like I said, I want a deal (issues of the comic in this grade are listed regularly).

The flipper wins the comic at $900 and promptly relists it at $1200.

If I am disappointed it is only because he got the deal I was hoping to get. 

[manetteska]

1 hour ago, path4play said:

Interesting thought experiment.

Say I have 10 nice GGA golden age books that I got a good deal on a couple of years back for $100 each.  Being a good fellow, and willing to share my good fortune with the community, I decide to offer them up on the boards.

Good Samaritan scenario A: I consider a 50% gain reasonable for me and a nice buy for board members so I post them one by one for $150 each.  Result: they are snapped up in seconds by 2-3 different buyers to disappear into a hoard or be flipped and I’ve made a tidy $500 to buy another comic.

Bad flipper scenario B: I find based on prior sales the books are “hot” and have 5x the current market value I originally paid.  I post them one by one for $500 each.  Result: they are carefully purchased to be cherished by 10 different buyers over the days members check in.  The comics fill holes in runs or build on desirable portions of a members collection. The sales have re-affirmed the books values among other collectors and I’ve made a tidy $4,000 to buy more comics.

Which scenario is healthier and better for the comic community?

Oh cool. Your fake scenarios line up exactly with the point you were trying to make. I guess that’s the only way it could play out?

As suggested earlier, one could put a “buy limit” or “time limit” on a sale. I believe this was even put into execution once or twice.

Edited March 2, 2019 by manetteska

[Black_Adam]

9 minutes ago, manetteska said:

This is even more glaring in GA. If you are second bidder on an ASM 1 there are many others available. Usually GA is one and done (for quite some time; or available next week on the boards). 

This may be more “opportunist” than “knowing the market”. How can one know the market if a book has not been sold publicly (Heritage, CL, etc) in five years? I think too much credit is given. 

Agreed, rare GA is very tricky. In addition to flippers you also have to deal with deep-pocketed collectors who can scorch you in a bidding war. 

Edited March 2, 2019 by Black_Adam

[Bird]

3 minutes ago, Black_Adam said:

If I am disappointed it is only because he got the deal I was hoping to get.

well, I don't think he got the deal you wanted as he paid $900 and you wanted it at $800. And you wanted to buy a comic to keep and your flipper wanted to buy a comic to sell at a higher price as he perceives value well above $1000, which you stated everyone agreed with but he clearly does not. I also think there are a ton of other assumptions in your scenario. But the auction record is a factual concrete detail and we can see where the bid would have been without that one bidder.

[path4play]

1 hour ago, Bird said:

Yes, but the flip side (see what I did there) is that had the flipper not purchased the book to flip then the price would likely have been lower and perhaps much lower. Then the flipper adds his flipping flipness to it and it is sky high. But now the prior sale is evidence of "fmv" when all it is was evidence of deep flipping pockets.

There is no right or wrong here, just different approaches. I see more than one lesson in your scenario, I see a lesson of bid what you are comfortable at and another book will be along shortly to gobble up your dollars.

I'm not sure what the solution is - nor am I clear on the problem.  If the prices are "run up" then the purest (or their families) are still happy with the subsequent cash out prices.

We can stop bidding/buying entirely, go to reprints and freely available scans or confiscate and redistribute all the GA comics evenly among all collectors.  Or roll with the punches.

 

Edited March 2, 2019 by path4play

[path4play]

42 minutes ago, manetteska said:

Oh cool. Your fake scenarios line up exactly with the point you were trying to make. I guess that’s the only way it could play out?

As suggested earlier, one could put a “buy limit” or “time limit” on a sale. I believe this was even put into execution once or twice.

Yes, that was suggested by me (buy limit or time limit).  I've also considered starting a trade only website (copyright/trademark lol). 

In the meanwhile what are the other scenarios that could play out? 

[Bird]

6 minutes ago, path4play said:

We can stop bidding/buying entirely, go to reprints and freely available scans or confiscate and redistribute all the GA comics evenly among all collectors.  Or roll with the punches.

That is no where near the entirety of the possible responses. 

Discussion is used to generate thoughts and ideas. People may or may not modify their behavior in response to the discussion, modified behavior may be a solution as well that you did not address. Your solutions give all the power and control to others, buyers can and do impact seller behavior. Transparency is a powerful force, not all powerful obviously.

[crassus]

39 minutes ago, Bird said:

45 minutes ago, Black_Adam said:

If I am disappointed it is only because he got the deal I was hoping to get.

well, I don't think he got the deal you wanted as he paid $900 and you wanted it at $800. And you wanted to buy a comic to keep and your flipper wanted to buy a comic to sell at a higher price as he perceives value well above $1000, which you stated everyone agreed with but he clearly does not. I also think there are a ton of other assumptions in your scenario. But the auction record is a factual concrete detail and we can see where the bid would have been without that one bidder.

I am not sure what is added to the analysis by the motive of the bidder/buyer? What does it matter what the motive is? Maybe the last winning bidder was a collector desperate to land his or her own copy because they anticipate inflation and don't want to pay more later? Conversely, if I am only interested in a book for the profit I can skim off the top why would I bid aggressively on anything? I get that may not apply to "hot keys" where there is a confidence of endless inflation, but for the run of the mill book you cannot succeed as a flipper by hitting new plateaus in pay outs, that will be diminishing returns. 

 

[Bird]

4 minutes ago, crassus said:

Maybe the last winning bidder was a collector desperate to land his or her own copy because they anticipate inflation and don't want to pay more later?

Well, first off it makes the deals "different", which is what I was addressing. And it isn't a hypothetical, we know what happened to the book in the example and that it was flipped (assuming we take his word for it, which I see no reason to not do.)

Edited March 2, 2019 by Bird
I will try to bow out of the discussion now so as not to dominate, I have made my thoughts fairly clear I think.

[skypinkblu]

There ARE also people who buy something on a Monday and by Tuesday their car explodes, really explodes.

The plus is (as I told Rick) he has single handedly raised the value of my collection (we seem to like a lot of the same books)...on the other hand, a few of my friends have stopped buying comics. Neither are because of board sales here, but eBay sales, which is part of the whole circular thing.

 

[faster friends]

I stopped buying to flip because I just dont have the time to invest in searching or the time to sell. And I dont need the money. So now I buy what I like and sell off the extras.

[crassus]

2 minutes ago, Bird said:

6 minutes ago, crassus said:

Maybe the last winning bidder was a collector desperate to land his or her own copy because they anticipate inflation and don't want to pay more later?

Well, first off it makes the deals "different", which is what I was addressing. And it isn't a hypothetical, we know what happened to the book in the example and that it was flipped (assuming we take his word for it, which I see no reason to not do.)

I understand, valid point, that the example in question is a known outcome. I was concerned about the general relevance of motive in evaluating winning bids, and I for one do not think there is any objective standard for valuation, it is by definition a variable that is shaped by a wide variety of factors, and one of those yes is flipping. Some books are undoubtedly made more difficult for collectors by speculation. FF Annual 6 is a good example, I would genuinely like a hg copy for my collection but I make do with my raw Fine copy as the current market for that book doesn't work for my budget. It is what it is, but the vast majority of titles and issues are not like that. 

I think a subtext to this whole thread, and one which I think many people in their guts feel, is that the current inflation levels are fundamentally manufactured, artificial, manipulated (see speculation) or in some ways not a genuine reflection of what prices and values should be if things were (ideally?) collector driven. Presumably, collectors would have an interest in keeping prices down, because then (to use my own personal example) that hg FF Annual 6 I've always wanted would be the $200 it used to be not long ago as opposed to the 1k it is now...but I think also this is a myth, it is all still just supply and demand, and the reason for the demand may be irrelevant. I am not sure to be honest, but I think about that sometimes, that at the end of the day many of us get frustrated because naturally we wish that what we want was cheaper than it (in fact) is....

[Ricksneatstuff]

1 hour ago, Black_Adam said:

Just discovered this discussion and wanted to throw in my own 

There have been many good points made on both sides and, being Canadian, I naturally agree with all of them.

Rick's frequent sales threads always seem to be popular, especially with certain buyers who seem to gobble up almost anything he lays in front of them (and are obviously happy with the price paid as they keep coming back for more) but I learned early on to search out any comic he listed I had an interest in and almost always found a recent sale for the same book either here on the boards or on one of the usual sites (eBay, Heritage, Comiclink, etc.). This is useful info.

Case in point: On a thread last summer I noticed Rick had a Shock Suspenstories #6 (CGC 6.5) listed for $1350. I knew this exact same comic had sold on Heritage just over a month earlier as I had been watching it and even made a half-hearted bid. The price paid (including Buyer's premium) had been $1,080 so I figured Rick had $1,100 in this comic.

As luck would have it, Rick had PM'd me just weeks earlier. He was interested in a GGA comic I had posted on the Golden Age thread, he said it was a personal favorite and made me a fair offer ($800). I declined.

Now, seeing a book in his thread I wanted, and knowing what he had into it, I struck. I offered him a straight-up trade. He countered with a trade and $250 headed his way. I suggested $200 instead and a deal was made.

I now have the comic I wanted (posted below in all it's glory - and I honestly feel even at $1,350 it would have been a fair deal as a CGC 5.5 just sold on Comiclink for $1,221). The comic Rick wanted was posted for sale in his most recent thread with no takers.

My point is there are many flippers here on the boards, but that doesn't mean there aren't good deals to be made if you do your homework. 

And if you lose out on a comic at auction and are frustrated when you see it listed here at a higher price there is only one lesson to be learned - next time, bid higher.

 

Hey, I remember this book. I sold it because while waiting for this book to ship from Heritage I got a higher graded copy. The funny thing is- if you want $1350 for it- I am here with cash in hand right now

Thanks Black Adam for outlining the kind of transaction I have fairly often. You were a pleasure to deal with.  The book he offered is a  book I essentially gave $1000 in trade for because I really liked it (and still do). I recently had put it up in a thread for $950 with no takers. My point is that not everything we do with comics is some kind of big financial winner. I had many many books, most of which I purchased here, that I offered in threads and were not purchased. I needed more funds to keep buying comics so I put a lot of them in all 3 auction houses for Nov and Dec auctions. I ended up with an actual loss of over $30k on books I had purchased. It was cool stuff too. Lots of Bakers and some high grade ASM keys, etc. One was an ASM 6 high grade I bought here from a boardie that I lost 2k on. It is what it is, right? If I buy something and sell it I get the "win" if it is worth more and I accept the "loss" if it sells for less. There are two sides to every coin.

I since sold the higher graded copy and soon there will be a mid grade copy coming up for sale after it gets back from CGC.

I cannot tell you how many books I have bought here, privately or at auctions for $X and sold for $X plus % and then 2-6 months later but back at the full price or more than what the person bought it from me for. I mean A LOT of books. 

There are so many times where I bought a book and sold it here and have seen it go up on eBay or other locations for 1.5-3X what I sold the book for too. It doesn't bother me at all. There is no ill will and I don't feel I sold the book too low and feel sad about it. I am glad there is "meat on the bone" for the next person. A lot of the people who have bought from me can attest to the fact I have contacted them months after they purchased from me and offered to buy books back. I ENJOY buying and selling more than keeping (for the most part). It is a fun rush both ways. Every person has their own reasons they enjoy whatever it is they collect. 

[Bird]

8 minutes ago, crassus said:

it is all still just supply and demand, and the reason for the demand may be irrelevant.

First part yes, but I think second part no. Motivation is a prime determinant in subsequent behavior, and the different motivations impact the market in different ways.

[skypinkblu]

On 3/2/2019 at 11:22 AM, Ricksneatstuff said:

Hey, I remember this book. I sold it because while waiting for this book to ship from Heritage I got a higher graded copy. The funny thing is- if you want $1350 for it- I am here with cash in hand right now

Thanks Black Adam for outlining the kind of transaction I have fairly often. You were a pleasure to deal with.  The book he offered is a  book I essentially gave $1000 in trade for because I really liked it (and still do). I recently had put it up in a thread for $950 with no takers. My point is that not everything we do with comics is some kind of big financial winner. I had many many books, most of which I purchased here, that I offered in threads and were not purchased. I needed more funds to keep buying comics so I put a lot of them in all 3 auction houses for Nov and Dec auctions. I ended up with an actual loss of over $30k on books I had purchased. It was cool stuff too. Lots of Bakers and some high grade ASM keys, etc. One was an ASM 6 high grade I bought here from a boardie that I lost 2k on. It is what it is, right? If I buy something and sell it I get the "win" if it is worth more and I accept the "loss" if it sells for less. There are two sides to every coin.

I since sold the higher graded copy and soon there will be a mid grade copy coming up for sale after it gets back from CGC.

I cannot tell you how many books I have bought here, privately or at auctions for $X and sold for $X plus % and then 2-6 months later but back at the full price or more than what the person bought it from me for. I mean A LOT of books. 

There are so many times where I bought a book and sold it here and have seen it go up on eBay or other locations for 1.5-3X what I sold the book for too. It doesn't bother me at all. There is no ill will and I don't feel I sold the book too low and feel sad about it. I am glad there is "meat on the bone" for the next person. A lot of the people who have bought from me can attest to the fact I have contacted them months after they purchased from me and offered to buy books back. I ENJOY buying and selling more than keeping (for the most part). It is a fun rush both ways. Every person has their own reasons they enjoy whatever it is they collect. 

Really? I'm shocked;) shocked, surprised, dumbfounded...not really... I remember your 5 minute retirement;)  and again, it's part of our hobby you just set a new bar. 

I remember having some stuff up on eBay a few years ago, it was a Sunday night, my auctions were ending and I was out to dinner with friends. I had just installed the eBay phone app and the silly thing DINGED all through dinner...then it ChaChinged when someone paid. 

The other couple we were with were much more excited about what was going on with my phone than dinner...and it can certainly be fun.

 

All these posts are wonderful, because we are 1. Using the discussion thread for real discussions

2. It looks like we actually have people here;)

Crassus's post was excellent as well.

I guess like a lot of stuff, there is no set answer, just lots of variables.

Edited March 4, 2019 by skypinkblu
I can type quickly, but I can't always spell quickly;)

[crassus]

3 minutes ago, Bird said:

First part yes, but I think second part no. Motivation is a prime determinant in subsequent behavior, and the different motivations impact the market in different ways.

Agreed, its an overstatement on my part to suggest motivation is irrelevant, it would be more plausible to say that I have my reservations that motivation can always or mainly be clearly defined. Motivations can be entangled in the same person and the same transaction, and frequently now as everyone acknowledges the old distinction between consumer and retailer is getting fudged by the proliferation of collector-flippers who are engaging in retail behaviour in order to advance another part of their collection. Even the straight collector is implicated in the inflation and it will impact their motivation. So let's say you bought a key for your collection a few years ago and now that key is hot and inflating wildly...well...good for you, great decision that now looks like a wise "investment" also...but whatever your motivation there is no going back, and if for whatever reason you needed to sell it, or indeed upgrade it, you are going to cheer on that inflation to your maximum economic advantage. Indeed, it would be irresponsible not to, since the more expensive books become, the more is at stake for one's own financial well being, and in many cases, that of our families as well. Depending upon the money involved, there is no simple "collector" anymore....is there?

Maybe its only me, but when I go to GPA to look up prices I sometimes feel like I could just as easily be researching stocks...."market reports", graphs and charts with little arrows pointing  "up" (good news!) or "down" (bad news...) and the hobby has been monetized to an extraordinary degree....that was perhaps inevitably the impact of the CGC revolution, but I find that increasingly I no longer have the luxury of just looking at a given comic as a comic, but now I must weight all the implications of the money I am essentially being asked to "invest". The good news is that if all you want to do is read them, the vast majority of comics are still dirt cheap, if you aren't fussing about condition, but I cannot see how a hg collector these days, whatever their motivation, cannot also be thinking about business.