Is The Comic Industry's Reliance on Variant Covers Sustainable? 0

[ygogolak]

Just now, october said:

I'm not just talking about the top 10 variants. I am talking about the fact that seemingly every issue has some sort of variant cover. It's a money grab that takes advantage of OCD completionist collectors, and historically that sort of thing doesn't turn out well. 

Um, so don't be a completionist....

[october]

3 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

Um, so don't be a completionist....

Um, I'm not. But plenty of people are. 

Hey, I get it. You want to keep the hype train going as long as you can. Go for it. Just don't expect it to turn out any differently than it did in the 90's. Good luck!

[ygogolak]

7 minutes ago, october said:

Um, I'm not. But plenty of people are. 

Hey, I get it. You want to keep the hype train going as long as you can. Go for it. Just don't expect it to turn out any differently than it did in the 90's. Good luck!

Yes, the 90's...when there were all those incentive variants.

[october]

13 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

Yes, the 90's...when there were all those incentive variants.

Distinction without a difference. Manufactured rarities are manufactured rarities. It didn't work with 90's comics, it didn't work with 90's baseball cards, it didn't work with Beanie Babies....but I am sure this time will be different. Because reasons. 

[1Cool]

Can't we just copy and past the arguments that have taken place over in the modern section over the last few years.  Those that make money buying and selling variants will of course love them and the people who feel they are too similar to the insert craze that helped destroy the sports card market will hate them.  There is just too much fluctuation for me to stomach so I avoid them and I don't see it all ending well but no one is forcing people to buy them so I have a wait and see approach to the whole thing.

[ygogolak]

30 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

Can't we just copy and past the arguments that have taken place over in the modern section over the last few years.  Those that make money buying and selling variants will of course love them and the people who feel they are too similar to the insert craze that helped destroy the sports card market will hate them.  There is just too much fluctuation for me to stomach so I avoid them and I don't see it all ending well but no one is forcing people to buy them so I have a wait and see approach to the whole thing.

There was a better one going on in General when that ASM 667 sold. Got deleted or locked though.

[ygogolak]

33 minutes ago, october said:

Distinction without a difference. Manufactured rarities are manufactured rarities. It didn't work with 90's comics, it didn't work with 90's baseball cards, it didn't work with Beanie Babies....but I am sure this time will be different. Because reasons. 

Ah, yes. The old beanie and cards scenario that everyone relies on. So, they stopped making those rare baseball cards right? There isn't a Kris Bryant card that recently sold for $10k....right? The thing will baseball cards is that they are real people. They can go up and down in value determined by real life play. Yes, media deals affect comics now, but is the first Green Lantern appearance worth squat now because of a bad movie?

[1Cool]

1 minute ago, ygogolak said:

Ah, yes. The old beanie and cards scenario that everyone relies on. So, they stopped making those rare baseball cards right? There isn't a Kris Bryant card that recently sold for $10k....right? The thing will baseball cards is that they are real people. They can go up and down in value determined by real life play. Yes, media deals affect comics now, but is the first Green Lantern appearance worth squat now because of a bad movie?

There will always be high price examples even in "dead" collectibles (ie rare upside down stamps, ultra rare beanie babies, a few ultra rare sports cards) but as a whole all of those markets are dead as a door nail.   A few variants would have been greatly accepted by most collectors but the sheer number of them is just overwhelming to almost anyone.  How many Star Wars 1 variants where there that people bought in force and how many are worth more then cover price now?  Not many from what I see.  The examples of variants (some 1:100 copies) that are worth $5 are endless whereas there is only a handful of variants that continue to hold their value let alone continue to appreciate.

[october]

7 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

Ah, yes. The old beanie and cards scenario that everyone relies on. So, they stopped making those rare baseball cards right? There isn't a Kris Bryant card that recently sold for $10k....right? The thing will baseball cards is that they are real people. They can go up and down in value determined by real life play. Yes, media deals affect comics now, but is the first Green Lantern appearance worth squat now because of a bad movie?

Of course they are still making "rare" cards. They chased off the casual fans and the only ones left are a small group of hardcore fans/speculators playing in an ever-diminishing pool. Companies have no choice but to cater to that niche because they destroyed the wide appeal of their product. Sound familiar? 

People paying $10k for a Kris Bryant or $10k for a 1/1000 variant aren't the ones that made the hobby great in the first place, they are indicators of a declining pastime. Comic circulation is a fraction of what it once was, as are card purchases.  

Trumpeting some absurd sale doesn't mean the market is healthy or sustainable. In this case, it's the opposite.  

Edited March 14, 2017 by october

[SquareChaos]

41 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

Can't we just copy and past the arguments that have taken place over in the modern section over the last few years.  Those that make money buying and selling variants will of course love them and the people who feel they are too similar to the insert craze that helped destroy the sports card market will hate them.  There is just too much fluctuation for me to stomach so I avoid them and I don't see it all ending well but no one is forcing people to buy them so I have a wait and see approach to the whole thing.

Not every post is for every forum member. I think we see a lot of people in General that get involved that never go to Modern. I mean, certainly those of us that have seen it all before can abstain and choose not to read the thread... I mean, I think we can, right? 

 

Anyway, I find something new in each of these conversations.

[darkstar]

1 hour ago, ygogolak said:

I'm "invested" in all ages. The fact that I don't see a hard to find variant at a show of LCS compared to ANY Bronze age book is what makes me scratch my head at these types of comments.

Dealers at shows only have a certain amount of space to sell their books. Variants aren't exactly the most liquid books, especially when they are market price. 

[ygogolak]

52 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

There will always be high price examples even in "dead" collectibles (ie rare upside down stamps, ultra rare beanie babies, a few ultra rare sports cards) but as a whole all of those markets are dead as a door nail.   A few variants would have been greatly accepted by most collectors but the sheer number of them is just overwhelming to almost anyone.  How many Star Wars 1 variants where there that people bought in force and how many are worth more then cover price now?  Not many from what I see.  The examples of variants (some 1:100 copies) that are worth $5 are endless whereas there is only a handful of variants that continue to hold their value let alone continue to appreciate.

Yes, but every era of comics has "dead" collectibles. I can pick a handful of comics from Bronze up. Fact of the matter is, nobody is saying Bronze and Copper are dead.

[SquareChaos]

The vast majority of all comics and collectibles are nearly worthless - as has always been the case.

Having said that, you can still find ways to speak about objective value, instead of subjective value, and it has been a long held tenant that simple rarity does not by itself make something desirable. Does adding together 'hot artist cover' + 'rarity' make something collectible long term? When you have the trifecta of rarity, hot artist, and key issue... well, people don't ask questions about the how collectible keys may be.

[1Cool]

21 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

Yes, but every era of comics has "dead" collectibles. I can pick a handful of comics from Bronze up. Fact of the matter is, nobody is saying Bronze and Copper are dead.

No one is saying variants are dead - they seem to be kicking them out as fast as they can.  There obviously is a lot of money to be made doing them or the market would have abandoned them awhile ago.  But is the modern comic market healthy due to the variant books or are they a sign of the rampant "gambling" permeating the modern market which is due to collapse under it's own weight?  A lot of gambling (predicting) goes on in the comic market from top to bottom but when you have people avoiding the regular 1st print and concentrating only on the 1:100 or 1:200 covers then I see some serious issues.

[SquareChaos]

10 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

No one is saying variants are dead - they seem to be kicking them out as fast as they can.  There obviously is a lot of money to be made doing them or the market would have abandoned them awhile ago.  But is the modern comic market healthy due to the variant books or are they a sign of the rampant "gambling" permeating the modern market which is due to collapse under it's own weight?  A lot of gambling (predicting) goes on in the comic market from top to bottom but when you have people avoiding the regular 1st print and concentrating only on the 1:100 or 1:200 covers then I see some serious issues.

The largest problem I see as far as 'health of the hobby' goes is content from the two largest publishers 

Combine that - and perhaps compound it - with printing variants for money and the prognosis looks poor to me.

[Buzzetta]

I admire those who are able to make a killing off of them.

I shake my head at those who are holding onto them for the long term.

I only have X disposable income.  If I am going to pick up a copy of Ms. Marvel #2 variant as a keeper for my collection, I would rather spend that money on a 75 year old Captain America or Superman or Batman book.   That's my personal opinion though. 

[Logan510]

6 minutes ago, Buzzetta said:

I admire those who are able to make a killing off of them.

I shake my head at those who are holding onto them for the long term.

I only have X disposable income.  If I am going to pick up a copy of Ms. Marvel #2 variant as a keeper for my collection, I would rather spend that money on a 75 year old Captain America or Superman or Batman book.   That's my personal opinion though. 

I would hate to be the one looking for a chair when the music stops 

[1Cool]

11 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

The largest problem I see as far as 'health of the hobby' goes is content from the two largest publishers 

Combine that - and perhaps compound it - with printing variants for money and the prognosis looks poor to me.

Kind of like putting lipstick on a pig and calling it beautiful.  If the modern books were great would they really need to distract everyone by offering up rare 1:100 incentive covers to hopefully entice people to buy more then they need.  Those 1:100 books jump up to $100 pre-sale (or more) and people are clammering for copies and most copies seem to crash a few months later.  Is that healthy for the long term?  Definetely for the people who buy for $20 and sell for $100 right off the bat.

Edited March 14, 2017 by 1Cool

[ygogolak]

33 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

The vast majority of all comics and collectibles are nearly worthless - as has always been the case.

Having said that, you can still find ways to speak about objective value, instead of subjective value, and it has been a long held tenant that simple rarity does not by itself make something desirable. Does adding together 'hot artist cover' + 'rarity' make something collectible long term? When you have the trifecta of rarity, hot artist, and key issue... well, people don't ask questions about the how collectible keys may be.

Yes, people ask about keys ALL the time. Is this book going to keep going up (Hulk 181)? What's the future for this character (X-23)? etc...

[ygogolak]

12 minutes ago, Logan510 said:

I would hate to be the one looking for a chair when the music stops 

You're dealing in unknows however. What is known is that at one time a book like Ms. Marvel #2 was probably sold for $100 max. out of the gate. Just like Incredible Hulk 181 was $0.25. Who is buying either for thousands and what is the future? Unknown. Is Wolverine a better bet, sure. But you can't buy a Hulk 180, 181 for $2k in 9.8. You can also buy a Hulk 181 any day of the week. Not so for a variant.