Is The Comic Industry's Reliance on Variant Covers Sustainable? 0

[SquareChaos]

Just now, ygogolak said:

Yes? Again was rarity mentioned?

1. Rarity is a relative term.

2. I was referring to supply and demand. There were just two of the Ms. Marvel variant sold recently. Does that make it rare? IDK, I guess compared to Hulk. 2 is more than zero.

As I will reiterate, "rarity" or perceived rarity does not generate value. Supply outweighing demand is what generates value.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Just now, ygogolak said:

Yes? Again was rarity mentioned?

1. Rarity is a relative term.

2. I was referring to supply and demand. There were just two of the Ms. Marvel variant sold recently. Does that make it rare? IDK, I guess compared to Hulk. 2 is more than zero.

As I will reiterate, "rarity" or perceived rarity does not generate value. Supply outweighing demand is what generates value.

I have to agree. It really is all about demand as NM #98 is a prime example.

I see this with Spawn #1. There might be a million copies of this yet there is a steady demand for it as a decent seller.

 

[SquareChaos]

7 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

Yes? Again was rarity mentioned?

1. Rarity is a relative term.

2. I was referring to supply and demand. There were just two of the Ms. Marvel variant sold recently. Does that make it rare? IDK, I guess compared to Hulk. 2 is more than zero.

As I will reiterate, "rarity" or perceived rarity does not generate value. Supply outweighing demand is what generates value.

 

3 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

I have to agree. It really is all about demand as NM #98 is a prime example.

I see this with Spawn #1. There might be a million copies of this yet there is a steady demand for it as a decent seller.

 

 

Yeah, too bad he didn't say that in the first comment he made I was responding too. Classic goal post mover.

 

These high ratio variant covers are only strongly sought after due to their rarity. That's it. No one would be paying thousands of dollars for them otherwise, anyone suggesting otherwise is, frankly, stupid.

Edited March 15, 2017 by SquareChaos

[1Cool]

Kind of a circular argument.  They are rare so they are in demand and they are in demand since they are rare.  The fact is are they worth $2k since more people want them than can get them.  Even if there are 10 people looking and only 3 copies then demand exceeds supply or else the prices would have crashed hard. 

Edited March 15, 2017 by 1Cool

[1Cool]

But is the process sustainable?  The comic companies obviously need the variants to get more sales since I'd guess the additional expenses required to print the small number of 1:25 to 1:100 variants must be loss leaders.  If they stopped printing the variants would the number of books sold tumble even more and would series be cancelled? 

[aerischan]

45 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

But is the process sustainable?  The comic companies obviously need the variants to get more sales since I'd guess the additional expenses required to print the small number of 1:25 to 1:100 variants must be loss leaders.  If they stopped printing the variants would the number of books sold tumble even more and would series be cancelled? 

Marvel is relying on incentive variants quite heavily. Just look at their slew of #1s (variants galore) and compare unit sales of those to their #2s.

Meanwhile, DC has switched to open to order variants on all issues for their regular ongoing series. Based on comiXology pull lists, I'd estimate the open to order variants add around 5-10% to their sales.

Marvel's already seeing some push back on all their #1s. In general, their new #1s seem to debut at lower unit sales compared to the previous volume and #2s onwards sell less than the last issue of the previous volume. Even their events, while still being one of their best selling issues, draw less and less sales compared to before.

I think Marvel ratio variants have been overused at this point that even as they're providing life support to new titles, they're probably not generating the sales numbers they used to. That's likely partly why we're seeing higher and higher ratios. Paraphrasing the Incredibles animated feature, "when everyone's special, then no one is."

Edited March 15, 2017 by aerischan

[ComicConnoisseur]

1 hour ago, 1Cool said:

Kind of a circular argument.  They are rare so they are in demand and they are in demand since they are rare.  The fact is they worth $2k since more people want them than can get them.  Even if there are 10 people looking and only 3 copies then supply exceeds demand or else the prices would have crashed hard. 

That is it,as long as you have at least two buyers competing. 

[ygogolak]

1 hour ago, 1Cool said:

But is the process sustainable?  The comic companies obviously need the variants to get more sales since I'd guess the additional expenses required to print the small number of 1:25 to 1:100 variants must be loss leaders.  If they stopped printing the variants would the number of books sold tumble even more and would series be cancelled? 

What would be sustainable, IMO, would be good stories. Not 72 Avengers titles every month. Marvel has moved to quantity over quality, and from what I read, a lot of people just blindly add these books to their pull list.

[1Cool]

7 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

What would be sustainable, IMO, would be good stories. Not 72 Avengers titles every month. Marvel has moved to quantity over quality, and from what I read, a lot of people just blindly add these books to their pull list.

It just seems like everyone wants a story and art that is specific to them.  They want a female Thor or they don't want it or they want a male Thor or they won't buy it.  Better add a female Iron Man since the female audience is going elsewhere.  Some people only want blocky art some people only like computer generated art.  Use to be there was a universal consensus on what was good art and what a good story line but now everyone wants what they want or it's not worth the money.  Maybe it's because of the price tag on books being so high.  I can see why the industry is throwing every idea at once to hopefully appease enough people at once.

Edited March 15, 2017 by 1Cool

[aerischan]

2 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

What would be sustainable, IMO, would be good stories. Not 72 Avengers titles every month. Marvel has moved to quantity over quality, and from what I read, a lot of people just blindly add these books to their pull list.

Marvel's problem is partly people have stopped blindly adding the new books to their pull list (likely also due to the massive volume Marvel releases every month). New #1s, rather than being jumping on points, have become jumping off points.

There are collectors who still pay a premium for variant covers (or really any cover that catch their fancy) but if these books are not being read in order to keep them in NM/MT condition, chances are the cover collectors are not buying the next issues.

Marvel has been appealing to collectors when they should be appealing to readers. And can we get better interior art please? Jim Zub's writing was okay but Jon Malin's art on Thunderbolts was an eyesore.

[aerischan]

14 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

It just seems like everyone wants a story and art that is specific to them.  They want a female Thor or they don't want it or they want a male Thor or they won't buy it.  Better add a female Iron Man since the female audience is going elsewhere.  Some people only want blocky art some people only like computer generated art.  Use to be there was a universal consensus on what was good art and what a good story line but now everyone wants what they want or it's not worth the money.  Maybe it's because of the price tag on books being so high.  I can see why the industry is throwing every idea at once to hopefully appease enough people at once.

Mind, both Thors are actually doing pretty well sales wise. Jason Aaron is on writing duty on both, I believe. Iirc, Jane!Thor sells better than Nick Spencer's Captain America: Steve Rogers.

Per Steve Jobs:  “A lot of times, people don't know what they want until you show it to them.”

I reckon people just want good comics. Marvel's made a huge push for diversity but to me, most of their attempts just feel condescending. More like, "Look at me, I'm diverse!" without any actual substance.

Edited March 15, 2017 by aerischan

[SquareChaos]

8 minutes ago, aerischan said:

Mind, both Thors are actually doing pretty well sales wise. Jason Aaron is on writing duty on both, I believe. Iirc, Jane!Thor sells better than Nick Spencer's Captain America: Steve Rogers.

Per Steve Jobs:  “A lot of times, people don't know what they want until you show it to them.”

I reckon people just want good comics. Marvel's made a huge push for diversity but to me, most of their attempts just feel condescending. More like, "Look at me, I'm diverse!" without any actual substance.

Aaron's and Spencer's reputations among readers may have something to do with that. I larger numbers of people avoid books of creators that they don't like... Versus say the claim that swaths of people don't read Image books because of how they feel about ES. 

[crassus]

59 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

 

2 hours ago, 1Cool said:

Kind of a circular argument.  They are rare so they are in demand and they are in demand since they are rare.  The fact is they worth $2k since more people want them than can get them.  Even if there are 10 people looking and only 3 copies then supply exceeds demand or else the prices would have crashed hard. 

That is it,as long as you have at least two buyers competing. 

 

This brings it back to the issue of sustainability. What is the market base? I am not great with money, so likely not the best person to comment, but my common sense tells me a pricing history stretching over a long period of time based on a large market base is going to be more sustainable than a short pricing history based on a small (albeit highly motivated) number of collectors. It also speaks to the basis of demand. If only a small number want something, granted they may pummel each other in price to get it, what does that say about its long term prospects?

Its sometimes easy I think to believe that because so many are crazy nostalgia driven collectors (yes, guilty as charged) that finally values are based on caprice and the collector's irrational impulses to have this or that. I was reading recently that as far as current sales of trades, graphic novels are concerned, the bulk of DCs sales are Batman related titles. If its Batman, it sells. The objective empirical fact is that there is a correlation between crazy Gold, Silver or Bronze collectors throwing big bucks at Batman books and the enduring popularity of the character. People are actually reading new Batman stories and that is part of the foundation that supports the overall market in Batman back issues, which in turn supports, for the more elite collectors with more money, the 10k Joker covers.

That may not be sustainable either, to be honest, but it is a numbers game, and the %s favour the books with deep cultural resonance and a track record of sales. Its not all relative.

[Andahaion]

Good discussion here.  I know jack about variants, but I recall when Silver Surfer was rebooted Francavilla did a variant cover I fell in love with.  My LCS actually got it in and when I called they said it was $100.  I believe that was either the day it was first available or maybe a day or so after.  That was my first "oh spoon" moment with regard to variants.  I follow the conversation around the variant market more than the actual books.  Just not my cup o' tea, nor do I really have an opinion otherwise.  Seems like a lot of hustle though, and I'm not getting any younger

[1Cool]

3 hours ago, ygogolak said:

What would be sustainable, IMO, would be good stories. Not 72 Avengers titles every month. Marvel has moved to quantity over quality, and from what I read, a lot of people just blindly add these books to their pull list.

What does it matter what is in the book since it's all about the cover!  You could print a bunch of blank pages as long as it has the hot artist drawing the cover it will sell in droves.  The companies must be mindful of this fact and adjusted how they produce books to give people every possible cover imaginable every month in order to satisfy all the cover collectors.

Now I'm not 100% sure buying a book for the 1st appearance of squirrel girl (or who ever is hot this week) is much better unless people are actually bothering to read the stories in these books.  But that is the market so why fight it.

Edited March 15, 2017 by 1Cool

[aerischan]

1 hour ago, crassus said:

This brings it back to the issue of sustainability. What is the market base? I am not great with money, so likely not the best person to comment, but my common sense tells me a pricing history stretching over a long period of time based on a large market base is going to be more sustainable than a short pricing history based on a small (albeit highly motivated) number of collectors. It also speaks to the basis of demand. If only a small number want something, granted they may pummel each other in price to get it, what does that say about its long term prospects?

Its sometimes easy I think to believe that because so many are crazy nostalgia driven collectors (yes, guilty as charged) that finally values are based on caprice and the collector's irrational impulses to have this or that. I was reading recently that as far as current sales of trades, graphic novels are concerned, the bulk of DCs sales are Batman related titles. If its Batman, it sells. The objective empirical fact is that there is a correlation between crazy Gold, Silver or Bronze collectors throwing big bucks at Batman books and the enduring popularity of the character. People are actually reading new Batman stories and that is part of the foundation that supports the overall market in Batman back issues, which in turn supports, for the more elite collectors with more money, the 10k Joker covers.

That may not be sustainable either, to be honest, but it is a numbers game, and the %s favour the books with deep cultural resonance and a track record of sales. Its not all relative.

And on the Marvel side, it's the Spidey books.  

[Mercury Man]

5 hours ago, aerischan said:

Mind, both Thors are actually doing pretty well sales wise. Jason Aaron is on writing duty on both, I believe. Iirc, Jane!Thor sells better than Nick Spencer's Captain America: Steve Rogers.

Per Steve Jobs:  “A lot of times, people don't know what they want until you show it to them.”

I reckon people just want good comics. Marvel's made a huge push for diversity but to me, most of their attempts just feel condescending. More like, "Look at me, I'm diverse!" without any actual substance.

That's because Nick Spencers Captain America is one big 'WHAT IF' story, that seemingly has no end.  I hate it, and want it erased from Marvel Mythos (as it will be, once the Cosmic Cube reboots the mess the current Marvel toads made). 

[1950's war comics]

i'm trying to decide.... if i take up a different collectible which has less downside risk  ?

modern comic variants or collectible baby dolls dressed in Harley Davidson clothes ??

[kav]

Accidental collectible beats manufactured collectible every time.

[ygogolak]

18 hours ago, 1Cool said:

What does it matter what is in the book since it's all about the cover!  You could print a bunch of blank pages as long as it has the hot artist drawing the cover it will sell in droves.  The companies must be mindful of this fact and adjusted how they produce books to give people every possible cover imaginable every month in order to satisfy all the cover collectors.

Now I'm not 100% sure buying a book for the 1st appearance of squirrel girl (or who ever is hot this week) is much better unless people are actually bothering to read the stories in these books.  But that is the market so why fight it.

Honestly, once it's slabbed what's the difference?

A lot of Marvel's variants have garbage art, IMO. There are about 5-10 good / hot artists and the rest just fill the holes.