Grading break even point 0

[SteppinRazor]

Grading break even point

Hopefully this is the right forum for this question.  I have a lot of Copper Age books to go through and sell, and I was wondering what you would consider break even value for getting something graded.  IE, if it costs say, $20/book to get graded, what price would it have to sell for to beat the raw selling price+value of time taken to grade?  Is the spread between raw price vs. graded price usually the same percentage (for ex a raw book would sell for 10% the graded price?)  Assume 9.8s for grades for simplicity's sake.  Thanks

[shadroch]

Its far more complicated then you seem to think it is.  There is simply no easy answer to your questions. 

[lou_fine]

Unless it's an uber HG copy of TMNT 1, I seriously could not think of another CA book that would be worthwhile grading.

Even though you might make a small profit from many books, it's just not worth the time or hassle involve with trying to sub for 9.8's.  Especially since you will end up with some that will grade lower and hence being money losers to you. 

Of course, I am sure that I must be in the minority with respect to this line of thinking. 

Edited May 1, 2017 by lou_fine

[1Cool]

6 hours ago, shadroch said:

Its far more complicated then you seem to think it is.  There is simply no easy answer to your questions. 

You will develop a feel for what works for you.  9.8 copper age books are not as easy as you would think so I'd recommend going prescreening (especially for the 1st few batches of books).  If you can sell a book for $20 high grade raw and it cost you $20 to grade a book then it doesn't make much sense to grade a book that sells for $40 in 9.8.  If the book is $60 in 9.8 then it's up to you if the effort is worth the extra $20 ($15 after e-bay fees).  If the book is $80-$100 in 9.8 then I'd think most people would find the effort worthwhile but once again it's up to you if $40 - $50 extra profits is worth the extra effort.

Edited May 1, 2017 by 1Cool

[lizards2]

7 hours ago, shadroch said:

Its far more complicated then you seem to think it is.  There is simply no easy answer to your questions. 

Actually, it is probably way simpler - If you know this little about such things, don't get anything graded, as you'll likely lose your @zz.

[oakman29]

13 minutes ago, lizards2 said:

Actually, it is probably way simpler - If you know this little about such things, don't get anything graded, as you'll likely lose your @zz.

Wise words.

[SteppinRazor]

11 hours ago, 1Cool said:

You will develop a feel for what works for you.  9.8 copper age books are not as easy as you would think so I'd recommend going prescreening (especially for the 1st few batches of books).  If you can sell a book for $20 high grade raw and it cost you $20 to grade a book then it doesn't make much sense to grade a book that sells for $40 in 9.8.  If the book is $60 in 9.8 then it's up to you if the effort is worth the extra $20 ($15 after e-bay fees).  If the book is $80-$100 in 9.8 then I'd think most people would find the effort worthwhile but once again it's up to you if $40 - $50 extra profits is worth the extra effort.

This is kind of what I was thinking about.  I just wasn't sure if there was like a standard equilibrium price.  Is there an average grading cost/book?  So I can research a price for a graded copy, subtract the average book grading cost, and see if it's worth it v. raw? Furthermore, is there a constant raw:graded ratio, or does it depend on the book?  I'm trying to streamline my process for evaluating what I've got, because it's really an enormous pile of poo with probably one or two silver nuggets at the bottom.  I don't want to have to examine every poo nugget to see if it's silver.  IYKWIM

Edited May 1, 2017 by SteppinRazor

[1Cool]

13 minutes ago, SteppinRazor said:

This is kind of what I was thinking about.  I just wasn't sure if there was like a standard equilibrium price.  Is there an average grading cost/book?  So I can research a price for a graded copy, subtract the average book grading cost, and see if it's worth it v. raw? Furthermore, is there a constant raw:graded ratio, or does it depend on the book?  I'm trying to streamline my process for evaluating what I've got, because it's really an enormous pile of poo with probably one or two silver nuggets at the bottom.  I don't want to have to examine every poo nugget to see if it's silver.  IYKWIM

Examining poo to find the silver nugget is pretty much what is necessary.  Really is no hard fast rule other then putting in the hours and hours to know what sells in rawvs sells graded.  Do you want a bunch of money tide up in grading cost and it may take awhile to sell.  What is worth grading assuming you only get 50% 9.8s on a batch of Copper books.  It all takes trial and error and living and learning.  Dealers make a living doing all that leg work for you.  Good luck!

[lizards2]

18 hours ago, 1Cool said:

Examining poo to find the silver nugget is pretty much what is necessary. 

Book The Evil Clown for your next colonoscopy!

[mschmidt]

On 5/1/2017 at 1:37 AM, lou_fine said:

Unless it's an uber HG copy of TMNT 1, I seriously could not think of another CA book that would be worthwhile grading.

Even though you might make a small profit from many books, it's just not worth the time or hassle involve with trying to sub for 9.8's.  Especially since you will end up with some that will grade lower and hence being money losers to you. 

Of course, I am sure that I must be in the minority with respect to this line of thinking. 

TMNT #1s are pretty much worth slabbing in any grade.

There are plenty of CA books that are worth slabbing even in grades below 9.8.

The first Crow series from Caliber, Caliber Presents #1, Miracleman #15, Primer #2, the first Grendel series from Comico, Albedo #2, Sandman #1 and #8, NM #87 and #98, Swamp Thing #37, Spectacular Spider-Man #64, etc, etc.

And if you're pre-screening for 9.8s, the list grows exponentially.

[SteppinRazor]

Since I can't really screen/choose books to send in the more mathematical way, I've found that $50 for a 9.8 is about the threshold for ebay listings.  Anything less than that and it's uncommon to see a graded book for sale.  Although I have come a cross a couple of $30ish books, it seems most that can't bring $50 don't get submitted. 

[shadroch]

Do not assume all your books are 9.8s.

Post a few in the Please Grade My Book forum.

[SteppinRazor]

58 minutes ago, shadroch said:

Do not assume all your books are 9.8s.

Post a few in the Please Grade My Book forum.

I plan to for sure.  The assumption was for the attempted calculation, as differing grades would be too many variables.

[adampasz]

You also need to consider demand for what your trying to sell. Spider-Mans, Batmans, X-Men will move quick. But if you have a bunch of B-List books it could take you much longer to sell through them, even if you lest them significantly below guide.

The premise of your original question is somewhat confusing. I don't think there is a raw/graded price ratio per se.  But Ultra-high-grade (i.e. 9.8s) books usually end up in tiers like this:

raw-NM    9.8
10$           50$
20$           75$
30$          100$

I just pulled those out of my butt, by the way. And I'm not sure anyone's done any kind of deep analysis.

And, as others have pointed out, you have to factor in a lot of other costs.

All this begs the question: Why not post pics and sell your books raw?

 

Edited May 3, 2017 by adampasz

[lizards2]

23 minutes ago, adampasz said:

You also need to consider demand for what your trying to sell. Spider-Mans, Batmans, X-Men will move quick. But if you have a bunch of B-List books it could take you much longer to sell through them, even if you lest them significantly below guide.

The premise of your original question is somewhat confusing. I don't think there is a raw/graded price ratio per se.  But Ultra-high-grade (i.e. 9.8s) books usually end up in tiers like this:

raw-NM    9.8
10$           50$
20$           75$
30$          100$

I just pulled those out of my butt, by the way. And I'm not sure anyone's done any kind of deep analysis.

And, as others have pointed out, you have to factor in a lot of other costs.

All this begs the question: Why not post pics and sell your books raw?

 

Did you take my Evil Clown Colonoscopy recommendation?

[SteppinRazor]

1 hour ago, adampasz said:

You also need to consider demand for what your trying to sell. Spider-Mans, Batmans, X-Men will move quick. But if you have a bunch of B-List books it could take you much longer to sell through them, even if you lest them significantly below guide.

The premise of your original question is somewhat confusing. I don't think there is a raw/graded price ratio per se.  But Ultra-high-grade (i.e. 9.8s) books usually end up in tiers like this:

raw-NM    9.8
10$           50$
20$           75$
30$          100$

I just pulled those out of my butt, by the way. And I'm not sure anyone's done any kind of deep analysis.

And, as others have pointed out, you have to factor in a lot of other costs.

All this begs the question: Why not post pics and sell your books raw?

 

Working backwards, I will probably sell the vast majority raw.  I'm trying to find the balance point, so if I look up a book and it's available graded, I have a price that 's or s a submittal.  That way I don't have to do as much individual book decision making.

At the first level you showed, If it costs $25+$5shipping to get a $50 resulting price point, then you are earning $10 more than you would raw, but at the further cost of delayed payment due to time CGC has the book, so you'd have to evaluate the utility of that $10 too.  IOW, it's probably not worth it in practical terms even though it nets you +$10 than selling raw.  Additionally, in that scenario, a 9.8 book that sells for $40 is a net loser (counting your time/materials to ship).  So if I see a book going for $40 or less graded on Ebay, I'm gonna sell it raw.

However, if you have say Amazing Spider-Man 400 which would earn a 9.8 grade, then your cost to grade would be (roughly, I'm a little confused about which would be the best choice for submittal) $35+$5shipping, then you are earning $275 more than you would selling raw ($355 - $40 raw - costs), also deferred the CGC time, much more worth it in practical terms (at least to me). (prices pulled from quick ebay glance). (And, call it an actual earn of $250, to create $25 of value for the buyer, which incentivises them to buy.)

Using your numbers, the $75 dollar range is kind of interesting.  $18+$5, so you earn $52 - 20raw price = $32 more for waiting approx. a month.

There's a very similar economic rationality game in which people are asked if they'd rather have $10 today or $50 next week.  Logically $50 is more than $10, so one should choose the $50, but people generally don't.  Their reasoning is they are still + in terms of gain, but they get to realize it instantly.

I'm not surprised if this kind of analysis is not common, many of you are collectors for the love of the medium, not as mercenary as this kind of analysis.  And I'm sure the dealers have already figured out what's worth a submittal from doing it hundreds of times and being operators in the market.

Your point about how quickly it moves is important, too.  I currently run my own business making art and furniture.  There is a definite utility to having money in hand for a product I made right after it's done vs a few more dollars a month later.  And there's a definite range of pricing based on how long I've had something.

[BTW, kind of interesting that grading costs are relative to value considering it takes the same work whether a book is $1 or $100,000.  It seems like tiering based on age makes more sense because older books are harder to handle]

 

@lizards2, he did his own colonoscopy, like a man

Edited May 3, 2017 by SteppinRazor

[lizards2]

20 minutes ago, SteppinRazor said:

 

@lizards2, he did his own colonoscopy, like a man

I'm always confused by the mirrors.

Anyway, a real man isn't afraid of a little evil clown action...,

[adampasz]

1 hour ago, SteppinRazor said:

I'm trying to find the balance point, so if I look up a book and it's available graded, I have a price that 's or s a submittal. 

In my example above, I wouldn't set the balance point any lower than $100, and probably closer to $200. But a lot depends on how much you value your time.

Also, your mercenary analysis assumes you can always pick the 9.8s, which is probably not the case. Let's say you can only pick the 9.8's 50% of the time...
Now you submit 10 books worth $100 each if 9.8, and let's say grading & shipping comes out to $20 per book. Then you get back 5 slabs worth $500 total, but you've spent $200 on the grading. Now, you sell everything and net $30*5 for raws plus $100*5 for slabs minus $200 = $450. If you'd just sold the 10 raws at $30 each, you'd make $300. So the effort you put in to get the books slabbed earned you $150. Maybe worth it; maybe not. But you can see, once you start messing with $50 and $75 slabs, you're lucky if you break even.

You can look into pre-screen to reduce risk. See this thread:

 

 

Edited May 3, 2017 by adampasz