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Why has AF15 exploded in value?
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Started by DKP,

286 posts in this topic

twmjr1

twmjr1

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Howling Mad said:

Lots of things go in and out of favor.

Many highly collectible silver and bronze age issues lost 50%+ their value 10 years back. AF15 is probably a pretty good bet, but you can't be a bull market forever.

It will never decrease in value. In any condition. Ever.

Edited by twmjr1
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Jaydogrules

Jaydogrules

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Juswuh said:

In the immortal words of Mandy Rice-Davies, "Well he would say that, wouldn't he?"

Well, no.  I think the point of the article and what makes the quote noteworthy is that Kevin Feige- the guy who runs Marvel's movie division and has overseen the development of the modern superhero movie that we have today (you're welcome DC), gushes for Spider-Man.  Calls him the jewel of their crown.  The best hero ever created.   He has never said that about Iron Man, Hulk, not even Captain America.  He said it about Spider-Man. A character whose rights Marvel still, sadly, does not even completely own. So next time you wonder how much potential remains for the character, his extended universe, his many, many spin-off characters and villains to get huge- and by extension, AF 15, the book where it all started- just remember how Kevin Feige said he feels about the character.  (thumbsu

-J. 

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Loki

Loki

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, AnonymousAF15 said:

As an outsider just getting into this market I thought I would share:

I ran an analysis on all the keys from the 1960s and looked at their 5-year annual returns since 2002 (first year with real data) at every grade level. I found some interesting insights I'm acting on, but thought I would publicly share some basic stuff about AF15 to get people on the same page:

- AF15 has increased in value at every grade level at the same rate - so the ratio in price between a 4.0 and 9.0 has stayed basically flat the whole time. So there hasn't been an acceleration in the top or the bottom. Everything is increasing in tandem. This is what you would expect if there wasn't a big new source of supply (i.e., someone finds a bunch of 9.0s - that should change the price ratios). Since I don't have supply numbers over time I can't test this (does anyone have that?)

- The 5-year CAGR (% increase in value per year) on AF15 across all grades from 2002 to present (data available) is +15% per year. That is a FANTASTIC return. And it has consistently been +15% for every grade level for every 5-year span available. That doesn't mean it will continue. It is also a pretty small data set. Given the correlation between the grades that's only 14 years of data

 

...Based on that if you believed that things would continue the way they are, you should be buying AF15s as fast as possible. If everyone realized this and started doing it the price would be driven up. So how high should you be willing to buy? If you think the OLD CAGR rate will hold, then it depends on how long you are willing to hold for.

 

Let's assume the price last year was  $100 (feel free multiple by whatever integer you like). Then the expected value over time will be (without bubble effects and without any change in the 5-year CAGR):

2017: $115

2018: $132

2019: $151

2020: $174

2021: $200

...

2026: $400

2031: $800

(15%/year means a double every 5 years - which is nice and simple)

 

So let's say you were planning to hold until 2031. And let's say you wanted to make a 10% return per year (VERY good). You think that it will sell for $800 in 2031. You will be holding for 14 years, so if you buy for $200 in 2017 (2x the 2016 price), your asset still makes you 4x in fourteen years - or a CAGR of 10.4% per year...

 

I know a lot of people on here talk about quick flips, but as asset classes get more sophisticated quick flips stop working (at least consistently). And transaction costs kill you. So the only reason to buy an appreciating illiquid asset is if you plan to hold for a long time. And if you are planning to hold for a long time AND last year's prices are about right AND last year's prices will continue to increase at the rate they have been increasing for the last 16 years AND you are ready to hold for 14 years AND you want to make a 10% return per year (less transaction fees) - then 2x last year's prices are about right.

 

If you want to hold longer - say 24 years, then you should be willing to spend even more. If you are willing to take a less than 10% return then you should be willing to spend more. If you think it will increase in value faster than 15%/year (based on last year's prices) then you should be willing to spend more...

 

AND you have the additional positive impact of the value of passing on to next generation. If you pass down an asset like this to the next generation - they don't pay capital gains tax. That's a huge savings.

 

So: The longer you want to hold the less crazy these prices should seem.....

 

My 2-cents. Hope that was valuable.   

 

Another aspect to consider, and one I don't often see mentioned, is the currency exchange situation.

Books like this are always valued in $US.  If your native currency fluctuates significantly against the US dollar, this sort of investment can be a good currency hedge.  As an example, my AF15 6.0 was purchased back in '08 when the US and Canadian dollars were effectively at par.  Nine years along, and the exchange rate is 1 $US : 1.35 $CDN, meaning I've got an effective 35% gain on top of the $US price appreciation in my native currency.   So my 8.5k $US/$CDN has appreciated to 50k $US / 67.5k $CDN.

The rapid appreciation may be driven in part by a lot of non-US investors looking for an asset that will not only continue to appreciate, but will also give them exposure to a strong $US.

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Agent 007

Agent 007

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Loki said:

Another aspect to consider, and one I don't often see mentioned, is the currency exchange situation.

Books like this are always valued in $US.  If your native currency fluctuates significantly against the US dollar, this sort of investment can be a good currency hedge.  As an example, my AF15 6.0 was purchased back in '08 when the US and Canadian dollars were effectively at par.  Nine years along, and the exchange rate is 1 $US : 1.35 $CDN, meaning I've got an effective 35% gain on top of the $US price appreciation in my native currency.   So my 8.5k $US/$CDN has appreciated to 50k $US / 67.5k $CDN.

The rapid appreciation may be driven in part by a lot of non-US investors looking for an asset that will not only continue to appreciate, but will also give them exposure to a strong $US.

I agree with this.  Other collectibles as well.  When I tried to buy Star Trek items at Chrisites or Sotherbys, I can't recall which auction house several years ago, most the sales went to Europe when the Euro was around $1.30-$1.35 and pound was around $1.50.  I was in shock.  They had the purchase power.

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Philreal

Philreal

Posted
Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Bigsexy said:

Whith all the jumps in pricing lately , what do you guys think my 3.5 would be worth?

It's not only about the grade anymore, many things determine the hammer price; cover chipping, colors, centering, "Toasty edges", PQ, just to name a few. 

Post a scan and I'm sure you will get some responses here or in "the Amazing Fantasy 15 Club" topic.

Oh, and welcome to the boards!

Edited by Philreal
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zhamlau

zhamlau

Posted
Posted

I'm not so bullish on price, I think 14,500-15,000. Its clean and nice, but it has noticeable chipping.  If you see multiple spots of it along an edge, I think the price is more on the high end of traditional prices. Remember: thats still a LOT of money and likely much more than you paid for it but if you asking price opinion thats where I am at.

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