$1000 is handed to you to invest long-term in CGC MODERN Age what do you do? 5 5

[Aweandlorder]

I'd put 250 into ASM 361 9.8 and 180 into EOSV2 9.8 1st print (not variant)

Oh Ill prolly put 160-180 into 2 spawn 1 9.8 

Sell anytime it yields 35-50% between now and 5 years

Edited May 16, 2017 by Aweandlorder

[SquareChaos]

9 minutes ago, F For Fake said:

This is kinda where I'm at with my thinking, but again, I'm adding the caveat that with a media tie-in, it could hit 1k. It's true that there are plenty of them out there, but it's also an insanely popular series. Add a little Hollywood presto, and I think it could hit 4 figures. 

The question always becomes, who doesn't already have one that actually wants one? That is what really drives the price in the long term... in the short term, in the initial surge of sales following such an announcement, I tend to assume that is driver by flippers buying up copies.

But maybe it isn't true that everyone - or some value of n representing everyone to such a sufficient state as to be near enough as makes little different - that wants one doesn't already have one.

[ygogolak]

Basing future value on the possibility of a movie or TV option is what's wrong with speculation today. The worst part is that the values for those aren't like they used to be. There are multiple options and characters announced every month, even weekly.

[Foley]

On 5/11/2017 at 2:26 AM, chrisco37 said:

99% of the time, you're right.  But there are some 2nd prints that are "better" than the firsts.  McSpidey #1 is the prime example.  I'll sell the green or black first print for $5/ea.  The gold 2nd print sells for $20.  I have no idea why, but it does.

Just out of curiosity, how can you tell a 2nd print gold from the first? Any differences on the cover or is it only in the indicia?

[Kevin76]

22 minutes ago, Foley said:

Just out of curiosity, how can you tell a 2nd print gold from the first? Any differences on the cover or is it only in the indicia?

First print is silver, 2nd print is gold  

[valiantman]

Did someone change the first post so you guys could recommend Amazing Spider-man #361 and Spawn?

criteria these must be CGC`ed and dates are 1997 to 2017.

[Bird]

Just now, valiantman said:

Did someone change the first post so you guys could recommend Amazing Spider-man #361 and Spawn?

 

 

No one puts aweandlorder in a corner!

[World Devourer]

2 hours ago, Kevin76 said:

I wouldn't invest any money into any Variant cover as far as I can throw it! I don't care how rare it is. Rare doesn't guarantee demand.  

Pay more attention to demand. 

 

With respect, the market proves you wrong.

Rarity does guarantee demand because it CREATES demand - be it an ASM #667 Dell 'Otto, Bloodshot #0 with Platinum printing error, Maxx 1/2 Blue Foil Edition or Uncle Scrooge #179 in CGC 9.6.

If it is anyway exclusive, someone will want it, and the prices reflect this. 

 

[valiantman]

24 minutes ago, Bird said:

No one puts aweandlorder in a corner!

ComicConnoisseur made the rules.  If we can just do whatever we want, next there will be human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!

[Drbearsec]

1 hour ago, ygogolak said:

Basing future value on the possibility of a movie or TV option is what's wrong with speculation today. The worst part is that the values for those aren't like they used to be. There are multiple options and characters announced every month, even weekly.

On the other hand if you can get one before the announcement and then flip on the hype, be some good potential profit albeit not long term investing

[Drbearsec]

5 minutes ago, World Devourer said:

With respect, the market proves you wrong.

Rarity does guarantee demand because it CREATES demand - be it an ASM #667 Dell 'Otto, Bloodshot #0 with Platinum printing error, Maxx 1/2 Blue Foil Edition or Uncle Scrooge #179 in CGC 9.6.

If it is anyway exclusive, someone will want it, and the prices reflect this. 

 

True but then not every rare comic is going to be In demand either.

[SquareChaos]

5 minutes ago, World Devourer said:

With respect, the market proves you wrong.

Rarity does guarantee demand because it CREATES demand - be it an ASM #667 Dell 'Otto, Bloodshot #0 with Platinum printing error, Maxx 1/2 Blue Foil Edition or Uncle Scrooge #179 in CGC 9.6.

If it is anyway exclusive, someone will want it, and the prices reflect this. 

 

There are far more examples were rarity does not create demand than where one could say rarity does create command.

Far safer to say rarity can influence demand.

[World Devourer]

Which it does. Again, the real money is in these gems at present - not a common as dirt 9.8 that MIGHT become a TV series.

[F For Fake]

2 hours ago, SquareChaos said:

The question always becomes, who doesn't already have one that actually wants one? That is what really drives the price in the long term... in the short term, in the initial surge of sales following such an announcement, I tend to assume that is driver by flippers buying up copies.

But maybe it isn't true that everyone - or some value of n representing everyone to such a sufficient state as to be near enough as makes little different - that wants one doesn't already have one.

Fair point, but I tend to think that media driven books have little to do with who really wants/needs them. The fans have been driving the book up steadily. Add some speculation magic, and suddenly the flippers will be selling them back and forth to each other at inflated rates.

It may never come to pass, and I have the one copy I want for my collection, so I don't have a stake in it. But in this hypothetical $1k investing thread, I think it's a safe pick with potentially great upside. 

[SquareChaos]

3 minutes ago, F For Fake said:

Fair point, but I tend to think that media driven books have little to do with who really wants/needs them. The fans have been driving the book up steadily. Add some speculation magic, and suddenly the flippers will be selling them back and forth to each other at inflated rates.

It may never come to pass, and I have the one copy I want for my collection, so I don't have a stake in it. But in this hypothetical $1k investing thread, I think it's a safe pick with potentially great upside. 

The problem with books like Saga is they are already poised by the community to be that pick. It doesn't take a prognosticator to suggest Saga may have some upside... everyone already thinks it has huge upside, thus it's current price even with thousands of 9.8s on just the CGC registry alone.

I just don't see a good dollar for dollar argument for picking it up, in fact, I think it is far, far more likely to go down than to go up from this point. Within the next decade that is.

[aerischan]

6 hours ago, Aweandlorder said:

Its the half cup empty/full perspective with Saga

Some think that its in a bubble currently because there are so many graded

Some think it will do well long run BECAUSE it has so many available/graded and the prices havent come down with that in mind

I was on a CBR thread that discussed floppies, cancellations and trade sales. As a result of the discussion, I ended up researching sales data for Saga trades. Apparently, from 2012-2016, Saga Vol. 1 has sold at least 350,000 copies in both direct and book market (not counting sales to libraries, school book fairs, etc). Total combined sales for volumes 1-6 is sitting at ~1.2 million copies per Comichron and BookScan. Guessing sales are even higher once you add other channels. Doesn't include digital sales, either. Totally wasn't expecting that.

[World Devourer]

1 hour ago, SquareChaos said:

The problem with books like Saga is they are already poised by the community to be that pick. It doesn't take a prognosticator to suggest Saga may have some upside... everyone already thinks it has huge upside, thus it's current price even with thousands of 9.8s on just the CGC registry alone.

I just don't see a good dollar for dollar argument for picking it up, in fact, I think it is far, far more likely to go down than to go up from this point. Within the next decade that is.

As always, Square and I agree.

[F For Fake]

31 minutes ago, aerischan said:

I was on a CBR thread that discussed floppies, cancellations and trade sales. As a result of the discussion, I ended up researching sales data for Saga trades. Apparently, from 2012-2016, Saga Vol. 1 has sold at least 350,000 copies in both direct and book market (not counting sales to libraries, school book fairs, etc). Total combined sales for volumes 1-6 is sitting at ~1.2 million copies per Comichron and BookScan. Guessing sales are even higher once you add other channels. Doesn't include digital sales, either. Totally wasn't expecting that.

I believe it is this generation's "Sandman" in regard to crossover appeal and mainstream penetration. Of course, that could send the book in either direction: 1. Upward, as the readership increases and people desire the "original", or 2. Downward, as most mainstream readers don't care about collectibility. It'll be curious to see how it shakes out. I think long term trade availability killed the value of most Sandman floppies, but the keys are still worth a bit in high grade. Saga may follow that path as well. It'll be interesting to watch.

Edited May 17, 2017 by F For Fake
Stupid autocorrect

[Hey Kids, Comics!]

3 minutes ago, F For Fake said:

I believe it is this generation's "Sandman" in regard to crossover appeal and mainstream penetration. Of course, that could send the book in either direction: 1. Upward, as the readership increases and people desire the "original", or 2. Downward, as most mainstream readers don't care about collectibility. It'll be curious to see how it shakes out. I think long term trade availability killed the value of most Sandman floppies, but the keys are still worth a bit in high grade. Saga may follow that path as well. It'll be interesting to watch.

Using this as a comparison, Sandman GPA $292/12 month vs Saga $363/12 month with 1/4 of the 9.8s in the census. I'm not sure if that info has anything to do with the Saga argument, but it makes one of them seem cheap.

[WolverineX]

How about Seven to Eternity?  Too early to tell?  Someone has said this is being made into a trilogy?  Is that true?

Edited May 17, 2017 by Wolverinex