POLL: how would BA12 cover do at heritage? 2 2

[chrisco37]

42 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

IMO, there's no way NM 98 doesn't sell for more than BA 12 at the present time.  So, we're at an impasse.  

I also think TWD 1 should be valued much more than BA 12.  I think it probably also sells for more than BA 12, but, I wouldn't go as far as to say there's "no way" it wouldn't.  It is the most important comic book of the past 20 years.  I don't get these arguments that suggest that TWD 1 (the comic book) or the OA will implode once the series ends (as others have argued).  Because people will just forget about it the day after it happens?  Because people will forget about watching the show week-in and week-out (during the season) for a decade?  Because, even though all good things must come to an end, people will forget that it was the biggest show on cable TV as well as one of the most successful and longest running indie comic titles, one of the truly transcendental comic properties ever?  Because once it's cancelled it can never come back again?  Even if the show ended tomorrow, TWD #1 is already a first ballot Comic Book Hall of Famer.  

Not to mention, TWD 1 was actually drawn by a co-creator of the franchise and the comic series spawned the TV show, not the other way around.  

 

What if Kirkman decides to end it this way: 

Zombies surround Rick and Carl.  Just as they are about to deliver the death bites, Rick wakes up in the hospital from his coma.  

[delekkerste]

2 minutes ago, chrisco37 said:

What if Kirkman decides to end it this way: 

Zombies surround Rick and Carl.  Just as they are about to deliver the death bites, Rick wakes up in the hospital from his coma.  

I'd love it!!  And then Dr. Glenn Rhee leads Lori and Carl into the room, as we see Dr. Michonne tending to Herschel in the bed adjacent to Rick's. 

They can always ret-con the ending later when they decide to reboot it. 

[buttock]

When I think of most fans of comic characters I don't typically have a stereotype.  The exception is Harley Quinn where I envision PWT teen girls and basement dwelling neckbeards.   Neither of those two are known for their discretionary budgets.  For that reason alone I'm not seeing this cover fetch anywhere near 6 figures.  

 

But I'm also usually wrong when I make these type of predictions.  

[BCarter27]

I think TWD 1 is historically important and would command a big price. I don't think TWD art will implode, but it will drop and level off, particularly if the show ever ends. (There is also so much supply.)

Indie properties tend to drift away without a big corporate machine behind them. TWD has and will have that for some time. But it ain't superheroes...

Harley is now an indelible part of the DC canon. And that universe isn't going away. Ever. Not until people can fly and have super-strength. If you were putting together all of the first appearance covers of top DC characters, your shopping list would be Action 1, Detective 27, Detective 38, Sensation 1, Detective 62, Action 252, Detective 359, Batman Adventures 12, Showcase 4, and Showcase 22. Think about that. Now which one of those is even extant?

(Personally, I feel like WW SHOULD be more popular than Harley, Supergirl, or Batgirl because she is not a derivative of an existing character.)

I would value BA 12 first, then NM 98, then TWD 1.

To change the subject... Other than Batman: Harley Quinn, what would be the six-figure Alex Ross pieces from the 90s or early 00s? Batman over Gotham, Crisis wraparound (with Perez), Kingdom Come 1 cover, Spidey Wizard hat, Marvels 1, Marvels tpb?

 

[SquareChaos]

3 minutes ago, BCarter27 said:

I think TWD 1 is historically important and would command a big price. I don't think TWD art will implode, but it will drop and level off, particularly if the show ever ends. (There is also so much supply.)

Indie properties tend to drift away without a big corporate machine behind them. TWD has and will have that for some time. But it ain't superheroes...

Harley is now an indelible part of the DC canon. And that universe isn't going away. Ever. Not until people can fly and have super-strength. If you were putting together all of the first appearance covers of top DC characters, your shopping list would be Action 1, Detective 27, Detective 38, Sensation 1, Detective 62, Action 252, Detective 359, Batman Adventures 12, Showcase 4, and Showcase 22. Think about that. Now which one of those is even extant?

(Personally, I feel like WW SHOULD be more popular than Harley, Supergirl, or Batgirl because she is not a derivative of an existing character.)

I would value BA 12 first, then NM 98, then TWD 1.

To change the subject... Other than Batman: Harley Quinn, what would be the six-figure Alex Ross pieces from the 90s or early 00s? Batman over Gotham, Crisis wraparound (with Perez), Kingdom Come 1 cover, Spidey Wizard hat, Marvels 1, Marvels tpb?

 

Is your cover shopping list ordered? It seems properly ordered to me until Harley Quinn ends up in front of the Flash and Green Lantern.

[PhilipB2k17]

2 hours ago, tfish said:

so what say you on Iron Man #55 cover?

More than the Drax title splash from the same issue. Not sure how much more. 25%?

Edited May 24, 2017 by PhilipB2k17

[BCarter27]

5 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

Is your cover shopping list ordered? It seems properly ordered to me until Harley Quinn ends up in front of the Flash and Green Lantern.

I think Harley is currently more popular than Flash and GL, but this wouldn't be my personal preference.

[SquareChaos]

Just now, BCarter27 said:

I think Harley is currently more popular than Flash and GL, but this wouldn't be my personal preference.

This may sound like a stupid question, but what do you mean when you say more popular? More people know something about her than Green Lantern or Flash, or more people are buying her comics compared to theirs or...?  I mean, the Flash has a pretty popular television show right now... thus far, Harley has been in a bad movie.

Everyone knows the Flash runs fast and most people know that the Green Lantern has a magic ring - I can't believe she's more popular than these two in the general population, and I'm not really certain she is more popular than they are in the comic book world, but I'm less certain there. I don't know how we'd determine that, but I'm sure someone could sum up the monthly numbers.

[delekkerste]

8 minutes ago, BCarter27 said:

I think TWD 1 is historically important and would command a big price. I don't think TWD art will implode, but it will drop and level off, particularly if the show ever ends. (There is also so much supply.)

Indie properties tend to drift away without a big corporate machine behind them. TWD has and will have that for some time. But it ain't superheroes...

That's largely true, but, I would point out that TMNT art is still going strong and it is not backed by a big corporate machine (even though there was a big-budget flop of a movie recently, it's not like Paramount owns the Turtles like Disney owns Marvel).  And, even though newer TMNT comics still have a niche following, let's face it, they're basically an afterthought these days.  But, TMNT #1 will forever be among, if not the most important comic book of the 1980s.  I think TWD #1 is the '00s equivalent of TMNT #1, and the success of TWD on television and merchandising surely is at least comparable to '80s and early '90s Turtlemania in pop culture (probably even more impressive given the competition for mindshare these days vs. back then, and certainly encompassing a broader spectrum of the population), if not creating an even bigger impact given all the social media and stuff we have now vs. then (which would not necessarily be captured in just a comparison of, say, historical box office/video sales or merchandising numbers).  I also wouldn't take it for granted that the popularity of superheroes will remain at this kind of level indefinitely.  

I also think that the whole comic book mentality of first appearances being worth more than everything else doesn't always translate 1:1 to OA.  Not everyone in the OA hobby values things as if they were a comic book collector; there's a reason why Fish is known for collecting 1st appearances:  because, surprisingly, almost nobody else in the hobby specializes in/values such to the degree that he does.  This idea that BA 12 is a $150, $250, $300K+ cover (look at the poll results, some people actually believe this) is something that's just happened in the past week or so.  If it wasn't, people would have scoffed when the biggest of BSDs offered a "mere" $50K for it a month or two ago. 

But, who knows...we are in a bubble and perception can easily become reality.  No, I don't think $250K is in the cards, but $50K probably isn't now either.  I think Zhamlau is probably right -$100-$125K is where you set the over/under line at this point.  Which I still think is nuts, but, what do I know...I'm just a Bronze & Copper Age nostalgia collector.  

[delekkerste]

18 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

This may sound like a stupid question, but what do you mean when you say more popular? More people know something about her than Green Lantern or Flash, or more people are buying her comics compared to theirs or...?  I mean, the Flash has a pretty popular television show right now... thus far, Harley has been in a bad movie.

Everyone knows the Flash runs fast and most people know that the Green Lantern has a magic ring - I can't believe she's more popular than these two in the general population, and I'm not really certain she is more popular than they are in the comic book world, but I'm less certain there. I don't know how we'd determine that, but I'm sure someone could sum up the monthly numbers.

My thoughts exactly.  Even John or Jane Doe on the street knows that The Flash is a superhero that runs fast.  Many will even know there is a television program about him and that he is a longstanding comic book character.  Green Lantern was the titular character of a big budget Hollywood film (which sucked) - he's definitely not as well known, but he'll score some good recall/recognition points for that.  Both characters were guest stars on the popular Super Friends cartoon back in the day and, of course, have been featured in comics for many decades.  It is natural - I would even say obvious - that both characters are going to be more known/recognized among a broader swath of the population than Harley, even if the latter is selling more Halloween costumes.  That's just recency bias; poll a random thousand Americans and Flash and GL will crush Harley in a name recognition contest in a landslide. 

 

[eewwnuk]

I would value NM 98, then BA12 then TWD 1.

NM 98 has nostalgia value to it.  BA12 correct me if I'm wrong is a book people had to go back and get and was mainly picked up for speculation purposes.  I would be shocked if there is any nostalgia associated with that title.   TWD to me is fading.  

[SquareChaos]

1 minute ago, eewwnuk said:

I would value NM 98, then BA12 then TWD 1.

NM 98 has nostalgia value to it.  BA12 correct me if I'm wrong is a book people had to go back and get and was mainly picked up for speculation purposes.  I would be shocked if there is any nostalgia associated with that title.   TWD to me is fading.  

Was the BA series kid friendly? I think there likely would be nostalgia associated with the series itself for some  number of people once a certain time has passed.

[JadeGiant]

44 minutes ago, eewwnuk said:

I would value NM 98, then BA12 then TWD 1.

NM 98 has nostalgia value to it.  BA12 correct me if I'm wrong is a book people had to go back and get and was mainly picked up for speculation purposes.  I would be shocked if there is any nostalgia associated with that title.   TWD to me is fading.  

Agreed on the order and rationale for value. All 3 are likely in the north-of-100K category

 

As for popularity and cultural relevance, I put Deadpool and Harley in the same category. I don’t see either one ahead of the other by a landslide – it’s marginal at best IMO. Both are wildly popular in the comic world and emerging in popular culture but not one outpacing the other significantly. Tough to say which of the 2 has a greater growth curve in terms of popularity in pop culture. I think they are both positioned very well to be popular for a very long time.

[zhamlau]

1 hour ago, delekkerste said:

That's largely true, but, I would point out that TMNT art is still going strong and it is not backed by a big corporate machine (even though there was a big-budget flop of a movie recently, it's not like Paramount owns the Turtles like Disney owns Marvel).  And, even though newer TMNT comics still have a niche following, let's face it, they're basically an afterthought these days.  But, TMNT #1 will forever be among, if not the most important comic book of the 1980s.  I think TWD #1 is the '00s equivalent of TMNT #1, and the success of TWD on television and merchandising surely is at least comparable to '80s and early '90s Turtlemania in pop culture (probably even more impressive given the competition for mindshare these days vs. back then, and certainly encompassing a broader spectrum of the population), if not creating an even bigger impact given all the social media and stuff we have now vs. then (which would not necessarily be captured in just a comparison of, say, historical box office/video sales or merchandising numbers).  I also wouldn't take it for granted that the popularity of superheroes will remain at this kind of level indefinitely.  

 

To be fair, Both the 2014 and 2016 TMNT movies costs 260,000,000.00 to produce and brought in foreign and domestic 740,000,000.00 box office. Id make the arguement you make 3 quarters of a billion dollars in ticket sales in 2 years, you are still culturally relevant. We treat the 2016 film like its a bomb, but it cost 135million and brought in like 220 million. I wouldnt be surprised if there wasnt a TMNT 3.

[JadeGiant]

Just now, zhamlau said:

To be fair, Both the 2014 and 2016 TMNT movies costs 260,000,000.00 to produce and brought in foreign and domestic 740,000,000.00 box office. Id make the arguement you make 3 quarters of a billion dollars in ticket sales in 2 years, you are still culturally relevant. We treat the 2016 film like its a bomb, but it cost 135million and brought in like 220 million. I wouldnt be surprised if there wasnt a TMNT 3.

This is a great point. I completely agree. 

 

You say Suicide Squad sucked? TMNT sucked? Who cares if the paying public says otherwise? Turtles are still extremely relevant IMO and are positioned to be that way for a LONG time. I am positive that when it comes time for my son to spend serious money when he hits the sweet spot of disposable income buying power, TMNT will be near the top of his want list. 

[zhamlau]

Suicide Squad cost 175,000,000.00 to make and brought in 750,000,000.00 globally on ticket sales. Not sure what the DVD and rentals are at , but again im not sure what marketing cost either so maybe those are washes?

[SquareChaos]

Suicide Squad, TMNT, Transformers - all objectively bad movies that will continue to make money like it's going out of style as long as Hollywood keeps churning them out.

If it is a big enough spectacle it doesn't matter too much how bad it is. Within reason I guess. I personally tossed my hands up and was done after the second Transformers movie and, after seeing Suicide Squad, I can pretty safely say I don't see myself lining up to see any potential sequel at the theater. There was literally nothing interesting in the entire movie, in fact, it was stupid even for a comic book movie. But I think Warner Bros. will somehow soldier on after losing my $15.

My personal hope is that movies like Logan, Deadpool, and Captain America 2 will convince the people making these movies to take more chances and explore the possibilities open to them a little bit more. 

[delekkerste]

11 minutes ago, zhamlau said:

To be fair, Both the 2014 and 2016 TMNT movies costs 260,000,000.00 to produce and brought in foreign and domestic 740,000,000.00 box office. Id make the arguement you make 3 quarters of a billion dollars in ticket sales in 2 years, you are still culturally relevant. We treat the 2016 film like its a bomb, but it cost 135million and brought in like 220 million. I wouldnt be surprised if there wasnt a TMNT 3.

Sure, but there was a long stretch of time when the Turtles were out of sight, out of mind for most of the population, and my point is that the books and art didn't suffer for it.  Because, TMNT #1 is in the pantheon of important comic books, perhaps the most important of the decade of the '80s.  The movies and cartoons and comics could stop tomorrow, and that is not going to stop TMNT #1 from being relevant, much as the T-206 Honus Wagner card sits at the pinnacle of the baseball card hobby even though no one GAF who Honus Wagner was anymore.  

I think TWD #1 will be similar.  Even if the comic and TV show go away tomorrow, that book is never not going to be the most important book of the era, not only because it launched a true cultural phenomenon, but it also helped usher in the current wave of awesome creator owned properties.  Many of which are published by Image because, well, Walking Dead.

Also, box office is not the be-all, end-all.  Plenty of bad, forgettable films have done boffo box office numbers! 

[buyatari]

9 hours ago, delekkerste said:

Charlie Brown was in TV/movies/books before he appeared in that comic strip that pre-dated Peanuts? 

Yes, he was in the newspapers before he was in a comic book. 

[Bronty]

You guys are talking about two different things.

Adam, Gene is talking about Lil Folks which was the peanuts precursor,

and Gene, the point Adam is making is that he wasn't a comic book character, which strip it was in being irrelevant.  

 

(More to Adam's point, comic collectors don't seem to care about anything about than the first comic appearance.   The first (full - I think there is a cameo or two previous) Peanuts comic is years after the first appearance in strips, yet commands a healthy price.    13,000 for this 8.5 example; imagine the price on a 9.4:   https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/peanuts-1-united-features-syndicate-1953-cgc-vf-85-off-white-to-white-pages/a/7084-91296.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515    )

As you stated, maybe they should care about Harley or Charlie Brown appearing in places other than floppies first, but as of right now, they don't, at least when it comes to the valuation of the first comic appearance.    That kind of price for an 8.5 puts it on a level with the major disney characters and below only archie, when it comes to humor characters.

Edited May 24, 2017 by Bronty