POLL: how would BA12 cover do at heritage? 2 2

[BCarter27]

Harley got a movie before Wonder Woman. No coincidence there. She's DC's biggest female property and is coming back for another feature.

BA 12's cover, even if you don't find Harley to be that prominent on it, is a very good Batgirl image that plants it firmly in the Batman Animated Series era. So a few more nostalgia points for that.

In my mind, first Harley beats first X-23 and probably most other firsts. Harley is a cross-over phenomenon and is still growing. I can see this nudging $200K.

[BCarter27]

All that being said, I would rather have a cel from her first episode.

[Bronty]

1 hour ago, BCarter27 said:

All that being said, I would rather have a cel from her first episode.

let's see... 24 cels a second, 60 seconds, 22 minutes....   what's that work out to?

[Bronty]

6 hours ago, delekkerste said:

I have no idea what you're talking about.  I think there needs to be a Google Translate page for "vodou"... 

I think he means that it feels like you're trying too hard to talk it down, almost like it pizzes you off that maybe its valuable.    I dunno if my interpretation of what he's thinking about your posts is right, just the impression I get, and I could understand feeling that way, any time I see good prices for a certain "awesome" artist I can't help but feel that way myself.   However, it doesn't stop the market for that artist one bit as lots of people like it regardless of how I feel about it.

Edited May 20, 2017 by Bronty

[Flambit]

5 hours ago, BCarter27 said:

All that being said, I would rather have a cel from her first episode.

This is one of my big issues with this cover hitting 100k (even though I assume it would): it never really felt like it was a "true" first appearence in the same way that, say, Daredevil 168 was the first appearance of Elektra.  I don't know Harley's history extremely well, but wasn't she already pretty well established (in multiple episodes) by the time the BA book came out?  I do vaguely remember when it did come out and I just thought, "Meh."  It just seemed like an adaption of the cartoon.  

[Flambit]

7 hours ago, delekkerste said:

I doubt that ten people in my apartment building (out of around 250) could identify X-23 by name. Probably closer to zero if you just showed them the NYX 3 cover; maybe a few if you showed them a still from the Logan movie.  Harley probably gets more recognition, but nowhere near what some people think.  Just because she's popular in a certain subculture doesn't mean that the general public is familiar with her to the point where they can identify her by name like Batman or Spidey or Wolverine (and even Wolverine doesn't have the name recognition of Superman, Wonder Woman, the Hulk, etc.)

Just because she was in a movie doesn't mean that everyone saw the film or that they cared enough to remember her name (X-23 too for that matter) after the credits rolled, especially since the movies in question were Logan and Suicide Squad, respectively, not X-23 and Harley Quinn.  I bet that most of the major Walking Dead characters have far more name recognition among the public given their consistent and persistent exposure to them (practically unavoidable the past 6 1/2 years).

Similarly, Deadpool had a movie that was actually called Deadpool where he got top billing.  Many, many more people in the general public will recognize Deadpool than Harley Quinn, even if they may be similarly popular among our niche hobby.  Very few people outside of our world, even the people who saw Logan, will be able to recall the name of X-23 at this point in time. My wife wouldn't know X-23 from WD-40, and I'd bet none of my immediate neighbors would either.  Sure, if she gets her own movie, that would change. But people are deluding themselves that her appeal extends much beyond our hobby at the present time just because she had a supporting role in the Logan film.  Seriously, BFD. 

I was more or less joking and I basically agree with you for the most part.  All I might suggest is that Harley has the potential of becoming a very big goldmine for DC, not in my generation, but perhaps the generation after mine; she seems to me like the biggest breakout character DC has had since she first appeared.  I mean, I vividly remember seeing the first Ninja Turtles book at SDCC in 84 or 85 and being totally unimpressed.  I would have never, ever guessed it would be the commercial juggernaut and icon to the generation that came after me.  Can Harley be the TMNT for DC in ten-twenty years?  Who knows.   What do pages for TMNT #1 go for?  

[delekkerste]

55 minutes ago, Flambit said:

This is one of my big issues with this cover hitting 100k (even though I assume it would): it never really felt like it was a "true" first appearence in the same way that, say, Daredevil 168 was the first appearance of Elektra.  I don't know Harley's history extremely well, but wasn't she already pretty well established (in multiple episodes) by the time the BA book came out?  I do vaguely remember when it did come out and I just thought, "Meh."  It just seemed like an adaption of the cartoon.  

Exactly!  Not her real first appearance and not like it was even drawn by her real creator.  It's become a collectible book for collectors and certainly gets big points for that, but, $200K+?  How many people thought it was anywhere near that price 48 hours ago?  I think the NYX3 result has unduly influenced people's thinking, like they've cottoned on to a new normal or new economy, like BA12 is the new Google of the OA world, sweeping aside old favorites like Miller DD, Kirby twice up covers and the like.

I'm not saying BA12 is like Pets.com, but, double the price of the 2-up Kirby Thor cover that just sold, more than triple the price of a recent BWS Conan cover sale, 2.5x the price of a good Miller DD cover?  Even presuming that a slightly younger crowd appreciates BA12 more, who's to say that they even have $200K+ to throw around on something like this, much less are willing to spend it? 

[AnkurJ]

8 hours ago, delekkerste said:

I've seen people overpay for what's available, but it doesn't necessarily extrapolate to the better examples when they turn up later. 

In any case, you have a link to the BA 12 page sale? 

It was sold privately so no link.

[delekkerste]

6 hours ago, Bronty said:

I think he means that it feels like you're trying too hard to talk it down, almost like it pizzes you off that maybe its valuable.    I dunno if my interpretation of what he's thinking about your posts is right, just the impression I get, and I could understand feeling that way, any time I see good prices for a certain "awesome" artist I can't help but feel that way myself.   However, it doesn't stop the market for that artist one bit as lots of people like it regardless of how I feel about it.

You got all that from the gibberish he wrote? I guess your vodou fluency is greater than mine!

But, seriously, if BA 12 is worth $250K or whatever you're saying, where does that put WD1? NM98? Do you really believe that there's enough confidence in it that people would pay multiples of well-established gold standard (Kirby, Romita, Miller, etc.) other art prices for it, even if some like it better?  Many would prefer an eco-conscious Prius over a Lamborghini, but that doesn't mean they'd be willing to pay Lamborghini prices for it (or even could).  

I think the harsh reality of what the cover actually is (not the real first appearance, not by the character's creator or defining artist) and what $200-250K actually means in this hobby would cause it to fall well short of those levels, even in this bubble market.  It's a lot easier to overpay for a 5-figure item like NYX 3 than get into the hundreds of thousands of dollars for something like this. 

Edited May 20, 2017 by delekkerste

[delekkerste]

[buyatari]

Who will bid and how much at a given time is a hard question to answer. 

You bring up an interesting question with WD1 and NM98. Which of the four is a more desirable cover is perhaps a better question. Winning some comic super lottery and given choice of the 4 cover arts personally I'd go with BA12.

BA12 then WD1 then NM98 and finally the comic I had previously never heard of. 

[Bird]

8 minutes ago, buyatari said:

Who will bid and how much at a given time is a hard question to answer. 

You bring up an interesting question with WD1 and NM98. Which of the four is a more desirable cover is perhaps a better question. Winning some comic super lottery and given choice of the 4 cover arts personally I'd go with BA12.

BA12 then WD1 then NM98 and finally the comic I had previously never heard of. 

This would be my order as well. BA12 has been the hot modern (and now along with WD1) for a while now. People have been trained to want it. 

[SquareChaos]

44 minutes ago, buyatari said:

Who will bid and how much at a given time is a hard question to answer. 

You bring up an interesting question with WD1 and NM98. Which of the four is a more desirable cover is perhaps a better question. Winning some comic super lottery and given choice of the 4 cover arts personally I'd go with BA12.

BA12 then WD1 then NM98 and finally the comic I had previously never heard of. 

Knowing what I know right now I'd definitely take NM98 first. It sort of feels like WD has reached its Apex, and Deadpool may still be working his way up the curve. I don't have any personal attachment to Harley and, while she can be an interesting character (mostly in the animated series in my opinion), I only see her as a supporting character... I'd still take BA12 over NYX3 just on the assumption that I could find a buyer at >= $100k.

[Bronty]

5 hours ago, delekkerste said:

You got all that from the gibberish he wrote? I guess your vodou fluency is greater than mine!

But, seriously, if BA 12 is worth $250K or whatever you're saying, where does that put WD1? NM98? Do you really believe that there's enough confidence in it that people would pay multiples of well-established gold standard (Kirby, Romita, Miller, etc.) other art prices for it, even if some like it better?  Many would prefer an eco-conscious Prius over a Lamborghini, but that doesn't mean they'd be willing to pay Lamborghini prices for it (or even could).  

I think the harsh reality of what the cover actually is (not the real first appearance, not by the character's creator or defining artist) and what $200-250K actually means in this hobby would cause it to fall well short of those levels, even in this bubble market.  It's a lot easier to overpay for a 5-figure item like NYX 3 than get into the hundreds of thousands of dollars for something like this. 

Well Gene, you don't want me to use NYX3 prices to establish the price of other things... and I'm not, so why would you do that with BA12?

IE i don't think BA 12 doing well (and for the record having thought about it I think 150+ is a better number) changes the price of the others, why would I?    No one is calling it a new world order.   

You and I just disagree on the relative rank of that covers versus others in the hierarchy and that's both fine and natural when a book is an up and comer.    

Edited May 20, 2017 by Bronty

[delekkerste]

15 minutes ago, Bronty said:

Well Gene, you don't want me to use NYX3 prices to establish the price of other things... and I'm not, so why would you do that with BA12?

IE i don't think BA 12 doing well (and for the record having thought about it I think 150 is a better number) changes the price of the others, why would I?    No one is calling it a new world order. 

I just want to know where in your universe these other covers would be valued. Not asking you to use BA12 as your benchmark.  But, as per your revision, you've probably realized that, personal preferences aside, the market would surely rate NM98 and WD1 as being more important and more valuable.  

And Fish's $100K implied offer - double that of The Vacuum's offer - was meant to be a Mike Tyson 1st round knockout obliterating number, not a starting point for bidding to occur.  Otherwise, he wouldn't have even mentioned it, right?  If The Vacuum is at x, and Fish is at 2x (these being two of the top 5 buyers in the entire freaking hobby), I wouldn't automatically assume that there will be other buyers at 3, 4, 5x or more no matter how much people like the cover.  

One Modern lot doing exceptionally well does not a New Normal make.  This Forum is littered with overly optimistic auction predictions that fell well short of the mark - upside outliers like the NYX 3 are the exceptions, not the rule. 

 

[Bronty]

I get what you are saying I just don't agree.   As for the others I think they are all exceptionally difficult to forecast pieces; I'm just not sure.    WD1 I see 200(?) or so.   NM98 is a weird cover for me to try and guess as I definitely have some negative bias there, so I'd rather not guess.    But, I do feel like those three covers are closer together than you seem to.   

 

[BCarter27]

2 hours ago, Bird said:

People have been trained to want it. 

I agree. And how does this mentality about the BA 12 cover fare against a theoretical Bruce Timm prelim or first model drawing for the BAS show, if offered for auction?

[Bronty]

oops

Edited May 20, 2017 by Bronty

[RICKYBOBBY]

Thing is BA 12 isn't Harleys first real appearance. Just first in comics. With NYX 3 not only do you get first cover appearance but also the original sketches of the characters creation. A lot more then you would get with the BA 12 cover.

On a side note what would this be worth then?

 

[NinjaSealed]

6 minutes ago, RICKYBOBBY said:

Thing is BA 12 isn't Harleys first real appearance. Just first in comics. With NYX 3 not only do you get first cover appearance but also the original sketches of the characters creation. A lot more then you would get with the BA 12 cover.

On a side note what would this be worth then?

 

I am pretty sure those are Josh Middleton's concept pieces for the comic, but not the original concept pieces that were done for X-Men Evolution. I would assume something similar to that Harley piece exists for X-23 as well.

I am all for the "first in comics" appearances not being as desirable as actual concepts originating from the comics, but the market seems to strongly disagree. It is what it is.