Berk Collection Auction Wins 5 5

[Sqeggs]

On 6/19/2017 at 0:22 PM, rjpb said:

On 6/19/2017 at 0:19 PM, twmjr1 said:

What's ridiculous is that some books, i.e. Centaurs, sell for (x)DOZENS guide and that fact is just ignored by Overstreet. Seems like they're just being stubborn or denying reality. Another good example of such is their prices on pre-Robin 'Tecs and early Actions. Idiotic.

It seems Overstreet has always been slow to react to dramatic jumps in market value, taking a more gradual approach. 

Right.  An annual price guide really shouldn't be reflecting, possibly transitory, price bumps on hot books.  Yeah, many Centaurs are selling well above guide, but what if a certain prominent green-scaled boardie retires from collecting those books (or becomes content with his current copies)? A price guide is supposed to give guidance to collectors as to what they might be able to buy (and a dealer what they might be able to sell) an average copy of a book for in a given grade in normal circumstances.  It's not meant to predict the unpredictable -- what the price of a high-grade ped copy might sell for in a highly publicized auction.

When books appear to have permanently found favor with a significant fraction of collectors, Overstreet raises their prices over time.  Seems like a reasonable approach to me.

Edited June 20, 2017 by Sqeggs
Typo

[Sqeggs]

23 hours ago, iuz22000 said:

I won this restored copy of New York World's Fair 1939.  It's my 2nd copy of the book and fast becoming a favorite of mine.  I bid on quite a few of the early More Funs/New Funs but got beat on every single one!   I am happy I did win this gem. 

I'd be happy, too.  That's a great book.

[iuz22000]

10 minutes ago, Sqeggs said:

I'd be happy, too.  That's a great book.

Thanks!  Not too easy to find in any shape so I put in a decent bid and it held up. 

[twmjr1]

1 hour ago, Sqeggs said:

Right.  An annual price guide really shouldn't be reflecting, possibly transitory, price bumps on hot books.  Yeah, many Centaurs are selling well above guide, but what if a certain prominent green-scaled boardie retires from collecting those books (or becomes content with his current copies)? A price guide is supposed to give guidance to collectors as to what they might be able to buy (and a dealer what they might be able to sell) an average copy of a book for in a given grade in normal circumstances.  It's not meant to predict the unpredictable -- what the price of a high-grade ped copy might sell for in a highly publicized auction.

When books appear to have permanently found favor with a significant fraction of collectors, Overstreet raises their prices over time.  Seems like a reasonable approach to me.

Disagree. No Centaur can be bought at guide in any condition, period. A price guide should be accurate, period. Overstreet ain't, period.

Edited June 21, 2017 by twmjr1

[Electron]

3 hours ago, Sqeggs said:

Tremendous pickup.  

Thanks! I'm very excited to get that one in my collection.

[rjpb]

2 hours ago, twmjr1 said:

Disagree. No Centaur can be bought at guide in any condition, period. A price guide should be accurate, period. Overstreet ain't, period.

There was a time when OSPG was more of a price bible than it has been for decades now, but I got an early lesson in price guide unreliability when I was a kid over 40 years ago, and a friend who collected stamps told me that for anything that wasn't actually rare, 50% of guide was what stuff generally sold for. 

[lou_fine]

On 6/19/2017 at 8:56 AM, rjpb said:

On 6/19/2017 at 8:40 AM, october said:

The only surprise is that anyone still thinks in terms of guide values with books like this. 

I won't say that Overstreet is completely useless with desirable golden age, but it's pretty close. 

It's not even useful as a base for multiples anymore. I can remember when the hobby used such phrases as "double guide book" or "triple guide book" with some regularity, now it's just "throw out the guide". I haven't bought a guide in over a decade, and it's probably pretty useless for most GA, not just hot books. I tend to only be aware of "guide value" from auction listings that include it, including ebay.  It seems if a book doesn't sell for well over guide, it's just as likely to sell for well under as it is for close to it's OSPG value. 

Well, since I am definitely a pre-internet old school type of collector, I still use the Overstreet guide as a base from which to work from, especially when it comes to HTF books such as some of the early centaurs which rarely ever comes to market, if ever.  Call me crazy, I guess. 

Ok, I don't use Overstreet strictly in terms of its absolute guide values for these types of books.  What I do is that I use it in terms of "relative multiples" of guide since I still need to have some base to work from.  By relative multiples, since the book normally doesn't show up in the marketplace, I look at the multiples to guide that the same book may have sold for in other condition grade levels, if even any other copies have sold at all.  In addition, I also look at the multiples to guide that surrounding or similar issues may have sold at based upon previous auctions at Heritage, CC, or wherever.  From here, I can then estimate a relative multiple to guide price point that I would feel comfortable with paying for a particular book.  One word of warning though, please DO NOT follow this strategy if you really do want to win a book, because as I found out in this auction here, my win rate was extremely low.   

Now if you are talking about pre-Robin 'Tec books, I am in total agreement with you guys here.  There are more than enough auction results here that you should be able to determine a fair market value for a book without relying on the guide.  Especially if you use Gator's Price per Point (PPP) strategy which is generally good for most books, except for your entry level copies and your HG copies which very rarely, if ever shows up in the marketplace anyways. 

 

[lou_fine]

On 6/19/2017 at 9:22 AM, rjpb said:

On 6/19/2017 at 9:19 AM, twmjr1 said:

What's ridiculous is that some books, i.e. Centaurs, sell for (x)DOZENS guide and that fact is just ignored by Overstreet. Seems like they're just being stubborn or denying reality. Another good example of such is their prices on pre-Robin 'Tecs and early Actions. Idiotic.

It seems Overstreet has always been slow to react to dramatic jumps in market value, taking a more gradual approach. 

Since we often talk about market values here in relationship to guide values, what exactly do we mean by market value? 

Are we talking about the final auction prices that all of these books are finishing up at?  Especially when many of the final prices for some of these rare and truly HTF books such as the early centaurs are often really being driven up by the final 2 insane bidders (present company definitely included here   ) who are determined to win the book at almost any cost.

For example, if a book goes up to $1,500 before everybody else drops out and the the final 2 bidders take it up to $2,700.  What is the true market price here and which figure should Overstreet go with in terms of his price guide valuation?  Is it the final auction price of $2,700 which is 80% above what everybody else was willing to pay?  Or should it only be the $1,500 where the rest of the bidders beyond the crazy 2 dropped out?   

And if it should be the $1,500 price point, how is Overstreet supposed to know this?  Even if Overstreet or anybody else is watching this auction very closely, how would they know the point at which everybody else dropped out and it was then just down to the final 2 bidders.  The only way you would know is if you were one of the final 2 bidders  with the other bidder and personally increasing the bid with every other increment. 

So, if you was poor old Bob, or whoever else he has doing this job, what price point would you use in determining your price guide valuation for next year?  Definitely something higher, but exactly how much higher is appropriate?   

[MrBedrock]

On Tue Jun 20 2017 at 7:12 PM, twmjr1 said:

Disagree. No Centaur can be bought at guide in any condition, period. A price guide should be accurate, period. Overstreet ain't, period.

It would be interesting to see just how many lower and mid grade Centaurs can indeed be found for right around Guide prices. 

[bounty_coder]

This is a hobby high on emotion.  Emotional attachment due to memory, eye appeal, character, artist, time invested in searching, expectation in finding another in the near or distant future, etc.

All of these are variables that come into play.  The more of these variables that exist for those that want THAT book reflect it's value to those people.  The prices of books are only the value to those who were there for it at those price points.  "Market value" makes it seem as if it is a measurable algorithm.  It simply is not.  The demand of the book also changes as more or less of those people gain or lose the emotional attachments to a particular book.  

 

11 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Since we often talk about market values here in relationship to guide values, what exactly do we mean by market value? 

Are we talking about the final auction prices that all of these books are finishing up at?  Especially when many of the final prices for some of these rare and truly HTF books such as the early centaurs are often really being driven up by the final 2 insane bidders (present company definitely included here   ) who are determined to win the book at almost any cost.

For example, if a book goes up to $1,500 before everybody else drops out and the the final 2 bidders take it up to $2,700.  What is the true market price here and which figure should Overstreet go with in terms of his price guide valuation?  Is it the final auction price of $2,700 which is 80% above what everybody else was willing to pay?  Or should it only be the $1,500 where the rest of the bidders beyond the crazy 2 dropped out?   

And if it should be the $1,500 price point, how is Overstreet supposed to know this?  Even if Overstreet or anybody else is watching this auction very closely, how would they know the point at which everybody else dropped out and it was then just down to the final 2 bidders.  The only way you would know is if you were one of the final 2 bidders  with the other bidder and personally increasing the bid with every other increment. 

So, if you was poor old Bob, or whoever else he has doing this job, what price point would you use in determining your price guide valuation for next year?  Definitely something higher, but exactly how much higher is appropriate?   

 

[Sqeggs]

1 minute ago, MrBedrock said:

On 6/20/2017 at 8:12 PM, twmjr1 said:

Disagree. No Centaur can be bought at guide in any condition, period. A price guide should be accurate, period. Overstreet ain't, period.

It would be interesting to see just how many lower and mid grade Centaurs can indeed be found for right around Guide prices. 

I think the answer is a lot.  I've certainly bought quite a few around guide in the past few years.  Some issues may have been run up recently, but, again, an annual price guide shouldn't be chasing price bumps that may prove to be transitory.  I think a perusal of GPA or the Heritage archives -- which, of course, I'm far too lazy to do -- would show plenty of sales at prices around guide.

[MrBedrock]

Just now, Sqeggs said:

I think the answer is a lot.  I've certainly bought quite a few around guide in the past few years.  Some issues may have been run up recently, but, again, an annual price guide shouldn't be chasing price bumps that may prove to be transitory.  I think a perusal of GPA or the Heritage archives -- which, of course, I'm far too lazy to do -- would show plenty of sales at prices around guide.

twmjr1 might call us functionally illiterate for saying so...but I totally agree with you. 

[Sqeggs]

Just now, MrBedrock said:

2 minutes ago, Sqeggs said:

I think the answer is a lot.  I've certainly bought quite a few around guide in the past few years.  Some issues may have been run up recently, but, again, an annual price guide shouldn't be chasing price bumps that may prove to be transitory.  I think a perusal of GPA or the Heritage archives -- which, of course, I'm far too lazy to do -- would show plenty of sales at prices around guide.

twmjr1 might call us functionally illiterate for saying so...but I totally agree with you. 

In that case, I may have to rethink my position. 

[lou_fine]

On 6/19/2017 at 9:48 AM, N e r V said:

On 6/19/2017 at 9:22 AM, rjpb said:

It seems Overstreet has always been slow to react to dramatic jumps in market value, taking a more gradual approach. 

I have to wonder though if the Overstreet value on something is say 1k and the market value is 3k if Overstreet started jumping its value up to the market levels would the market start reacting by raising its values accordingly because they've been "trained" for so long about Overstreets lower values? Would that 3k book now be closer to 6k or 9k because Overstreet is saying its 3k now? I don't think Overstreet has ever been accurate with respects to the FMV going back decades on most things. The only difference today is the gaps in some cases are much larger than before.

My personal bet is that this is probably the fastest way to turn a so-called red hot book into a relatively cold book going forward. 

With the kind of prices that we are talking about for vintage quality comic books in terms of today's marketplace, or even yesterday's marketplace, potential return or capital preservation is bound to be in the minds of most collectors.  And in this sense, most purchasers would still prefer to buy a book that is deemed to be undervalued and still have upwards price momentum left going forward.  And they would most probably not be interested in books that are deemed to be fully valued, or even worse, overvalued since these books are seen as probably having nowhere to go except down or at best, plateauing indefinitely until the next wave comes in. 

In this sense, value is often seen in the form of the price guide valuations and it's psychologically good to have guide prices running below real market prices with room for additional years of increases going forward.  Definitely not psychologically good for guide prices to be running at or even above real market prices since the first thing to come to mind are stagnating prices or even declining prices in the guide going forward.

The classic example which I remember here is in terms of Mystery Men #1 back in the mid-90's when the Fox market was going blazing red hot.  Based upon one or two highlight grabbing sales, as far as I can tell, Overstreet increased the price of Mystery Men #1 which was seen as the poster book for Fox at the time by 305% from $2,100 all the way to $8,500 in just one shot.     Well, guess what?  What was once a red hot book not only cooled down almost immediately, but all of the associated Fox books also cooled off after that.  And not only for a short period of time, but for a rather long extended period of time when the heat for these books were definitely extinguished and snuffed out. 

So, be careful of what you wish for because it could have the exact opposite results of what you were expecting. 

Edited June 22, 2017 by lou_fine

[adamstrange]

38 minutes ago, MrBedrock said:

twmjr1 might call us functionally illiterate for saying so...but I totally agree with you. 

I'd call you functionally illuminated!

[lou_fine]

On 6/20/2017 at 11:31 AM, Straw-Man said:

On 6/20/2017 at 8:24 AM, Johnny545 said:

I think it's tough to point to any particular Church sale as indicative of a recent mania in the market, those books have been selling for multiples of any typical market price for 40 years - since they came to market.  

Now that cgc has confirmed (from years of grading) there is usually nothing better, people pay more for the certainty that it is in many instances 1 of 1.

i am the proud owner of 3 allentown early foxes, and am very proud to say that each stayed above the church counterpart on census.  that doesn't suck.

Although the Larson pedigree has a more comprehensive sampling of the Fox books relative to the Allentowns, I believe their overall condition quality is not as consistently high as the ones from the Allentown and Church pedigree collections. 

Does anybody have any idea if the Fox books, especially the early ones, are present in the highly acclaimed Tom Reilly / San Francisco Collection? 

[batman_fan]

1 hour ago, MrBedrock said:

It would be interesting to see just how many lower and mid grade Centaurs can indeed be found for right around Guide prices. 

There are quite a few coming up for Auction between Heritage and CLINK so we may get to see.

Greg

[buttock]

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

Although the Larson pedigree has a more comprehensive sampling of the Fox books relative to the Allentowns, I believe their overall condition quality is not as consistently high as the ones from the Allentown and Church pedigree collections. 

Does anybody have any idea if the Fox books, especially the early ones, are present in the highly acclaimed Tom Reilly / San Francisco Collection? 

Fantastic 5, 6, and 8 have all been sold publicly IIRC.  

[G.A.tor]

1 hour ago, batman_fan said:

There are quite a few coming up for Auction between Heritage and CLINK so we may get to see.

Greg

Looks like Goldman finally selling those amfs he got last year. 

[batman_fan]

Just now, G.A.tor said:

Looks like Goldman finally selling those amfs he got last year. 

Goldman = Motor City ?