Discussed but been a while: Existing #s of mega keys 1 1

[ender]

Would the multiply by five also be thought to work for the other big keys, some of which seem tougher to find than action 1 or Tec 27. Like More Fun 52, All American 16, or Flash Comics 1. I know there a fewer MF 52 on the census than action 1 or Tec 27

[Chicago Boy]

47 minutes ago, ender said:

Would the multiply by five also be thought to work for the other big keys, some of which seem tougher to find than action 1 or Tec 27. Like More Fun 52, All American 16, or Flash Comics 1. I know there a fewer MF 52 on the census than action 1 or Tec 27

Where does MF 52 compare to AA16 & Flash 1 in terms of census numbers ?  Is MF 52 still considered a "mega key " ??  Big fan of the book just it seems like the desire for that book has waned in the last year or two

[Foley]

32 minutes ago, Chicago Boy said:

Where does MF 52 compare to AA16 & Flash 1 in terms of census numbers ?

More Fun 52: 18 Universal, 26 Restored = 44 Total
All American 16: 22 Universal, 2 Qualified, 24 Restored = 48 Total
Flash Comics 1: 31 Universal, 2 Qualified, 34 Restored = 67 Total

33 minutes ago, Chicago Boy said:

Is MF 52 still considered a "mega key " ??  Big fan of the book just it seems like the desire for that book has waned in the last year or two

No idea on this one @G.A.tor?

[Pickie]

What's the "scarcity index" for AC1 and Tec27 in the Gerber Photo Journals (don't have my books at hand right now).

Those books were published in 1989/1990 and the estimates from that period of time might be interesting for today, too.

Oh, and I love the boards for stuff like this:

9 hours ago, G.A.tor said:

I think 200 is maybe a bit low. There are about 130 "known" copies so I figured as many unknown (for example there's a collector in Ca with 3 raw copies)

 

[Mr bla bla]

13 hours ago, G.A.tor said:

Not only do I believe it, i think that 100 might be low. This comes from talking to 1000s of folks at cons, other dealers that knownof copies/sold copies etc etc. pretty safe bet there are way more than 100 

Will hear-say do the job? Someone bragging that he 'held this book' or 'have heard about this book' being 'in this or that collection'. Hardly valid, since one particular copy could be registered across multiple accounts from these 1000s of folks.  

[G.A.tor]

5 hours ago, Foley said:

More Fun 52: 18 Universal, 26 Restored = 44 Total
All American 16: 22 Universal, 2 Qualified, 24 Restored = 48 Total
Flash Comics 1: 31 Universal, 2 Qualified, 34 Restored = 67 Total

No idea on this one @G.A.tor?

Mf52 is still a golden age key...spectre just doesn't get the same love itnonce did, but doesn't change the fact it's a very important ga key

Edited June 21, 2017 by G.A.tor

[G.A.tor]

1 hour ago, Mr bla bla said:

Will hear-say do the job? Someone bragging that he 'held this book' or 'have heard about this book' being 'in this or that collection'. Hardly valid, since one particular copy could be registered across multiple accounts from these 1000s of folks.  

Of course most is hear say. This isnt a court of law requiring proof 

its mostly conjecture and opinion, but experience and first hand knowledge do validate some opinions slightly more than others, or maybe not  

And many do share. Like the lawyer we (yes pickie) met in sdcc a little while back that did share pics of his 3 fortressed action 1s (among others). 

That said, no one likely will ever know. I shared my conclusions and why...how bout share yours?

[Mr bla bla]

28 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

Of course most is hear say. This isnt a court of law requiring proof 

its mostly conjecture and opinion, but experience and first hand knowledge do validate some opinions slightly more than others, or maybe not  

And many do share. Like the lawyer we (yes pickie) met in sdcc a little while back that did share pics of his 3 fortressed action 1s (among others). 

That said, no one likely will ever know. I shared my conclusions and why...how bout share yours?

Im sorry if I came across sarcastic Gator. It was certainly not the intention.

Secondly, I obviously cannot compete with your experience on this matter. Thats for sure. But never the less I like to throw in my 2cents now and then. And still *validity* remains what we're looking for to generally optimize the guesstimates which are being pulled out here on the boards. And so I still maintain my point that there is a risk that a particular copy could be registered across multiple accounts. So Here say is always risky. And yes I tend to believe that if the population is 250-300 copies we would see more than 60 slabs in census after 17 years of entombing. But full disclosure: this IS gut feeling.

 

[Bookery]

13 hours ago, twmjr1 said:

They appreciated like wildfire, and haven't slowed since.  Neither book has ever depreciated, since the hobby was born. Never. But the past couple of years have been off-the-charts crazy. If any complete copy of either book can be had for less than 200k now, I'd be shocked. Raw, slabbed, restored, trimmed, whatever.

As one who enjoys paper collectibles across a broad spectrum, even after decades in the business I will never cease to be amazed by these books.  I don't believe there is another collectible of any kind that reaches these kinds of valuations with such a large number of copies available.  Compared to some collectibles, Action 1 & 'Tec 27 would be considered abundant!  With several copies having blown past $1-million, it's interesting to note that a First Folio Shakespeare, complete, can be had for around $2-mil., with probably fewer than 2-dozen copies in existence, and only a handful of those not locked away in museums.  Poe's 1st book, Tamerlane, I believe now goes for around $1-mil., if you can shake free one of the 20 or so known copies.  I think there's only about 2 or 3 dozen known copies of Tarzan's 1st app. in All-Story... which goes for around $20-k or so... even fewer copies of the 1st edition hardback in dust-jacket... maybe $50-k for a decent copy.  There are several KEY movie posters out there with fewer than 10 copies, going for far less than $1-k.  The 1st ed. 1st Pocket Book I think has fewer than 20 known copies... somewhere around $20,000 will get you one... if and when one shows up for sale.  Weird Tales #1 is not all that rare... but there are still certainly far fewer known copies than Action #1... can be had for around $20k.  1st edition Frankenstein, which was issued in 3 small volumes making it difficult to find whole, maybe $100,000, with I'd guess fewer than 50 existing copies.  Others with more knowledge can chime in... but I'm guessing there are not even any classic automobiles, furniture antiques, rare coins, etc., that will bring over $1-mil. with estimated quantities of 200-300 in existence?

[G.A.tor]

12 minutes ago, Mr bla bla said:

Im sorry if I came across sarcastic Gator. It was certainly not the intention.

Secondly, I obviously cannot compete with your experience on this matter. Thats for sure. But never the less I like to throw in my 2cents now and then. And still *validity* remains what we're looking for to generally optimize the guesstimates which are being pulled out here on the boards. And so I still maintain my point that there is a risk that a particular copy could be registered across multiple accounts. So Here say is always risky. And yes I tend to believe that if the population is 250-300 copies we would see more than 60 slabs in census after 17 years of entombing. But full disclosure: this IS gut feeling.

 

That's part of it too...the "gut" feeling from experience. Most "claims" I dismiss, but after 40 years in the hobby, you can get a "feel". Again, could be wrong. No one really knows. I just like to hear folks opinions and insights 

[G.A.tor]

13 minutes ago, Bookery said:

.  Others with more knowledge can chime in... but I'm guessing there are not even any classic automobiles, furniture antiques, rare coins, etc., that will bring over $1-mil. with estimated quantities of 200-300 in existence?

Good points. There very likely are not more than a small % of copies that could garner 7 figures. Those copies 7.0? And above. The majority of existing copies are likely restored or lower grade and until recently didn't even sniff 6 figures. 

I think many I've talked to over he years that can't accept a Higher than 100 exist # seem to be from the camp "show me or I don't believe". Doesn't work that way, of course. 

That first published estimate of "less than 100" originated long ago, pre internet/Information Age. We likely know slightly different now. 

[Pickie]

49 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

And many do share. Like the lawyer we (yes pickie) met in sdcc a little while back that did share pics of his 3 fortressed action 1s (among others).

Oh, you might have got me wrong. Maybe this: was unclear? I've believed your report straight away! So this might better express what I've felt (and do feel): !!

[telerites]

Not necessarily comparative but I read the story this morning about finding a trove of Nazi artifacts in Argentina this week.  They had been locked away in a secret room of collector.

Who is to know what is left out there either in hands of folks knowing what they have or not knowing like used for wall insulation or at the bottom of old trunk.  I too lean to more than is suspected than less.

 

 

[Mr bla bla]

1 hour ago, Bookery said:

As one who enjoys paper collectibles across a broad spectrum, even after decades in the business I will never cease to be amazed by these books.  I don't believe there is another collectible of any kind that reaches these kinds of valuations with such a large number of copies available.  Compared to some collectibles, Action 1 & 'Tec 27 would be considered abundant!  With several copies having blown past $1-million, it's interesting to note that a First Folio Shakespeare, complete, can be had for around $2-mil., with probably fewer than 2-dozen copies in existence, and only a handful of those not locked away in museums.  Poe's 1st book, Tamerlane, I believe now goes for around $1-mil., if you can shake free one of the 20 or so known copies.  I think there's only about 2 or 3 dozen known copies of Tarzan's 1st app. in All-Story... which goes for around $20-k or so... even fewer copies of the 1st edition hardback in dust-jacket... maybe $50-k for a decent copy.  There are several KEY movie posters out there with fewer than 10 copies, going for far less than $1-k.  The 1st ed. 1st Pocket Book I think has fewer than 20 known copies... somewhere around $20,000 will get you one... if and when one shows up for sale.  Weird Tales #1 is not all that rare... but there are still certainly far fewer known copies than Action #1... can be had for around $20k.  1st edition Frankenstein, which was issued in 3 small volumes making it difficult to find whole, maybe $100,000, with I'd guess fewer than 50 existing copies.  Others with more knowledge can chime in... but I'm guessing there are not even any classic automobiles, furniture antiques, rare coins, etc., that will bring over $1-mil. with estimated quantities of 200-300 in existence?

I read this as a pretty well founded argument *against* the claim that were looking at 300 copies or more ....

[G.A.tor]

1 hour ago, Pickie said:

Oh, you might have got me wrong. Maybe this: was unclear? I've believed your report straight away! So this might better express what I've felt (and do feel): !!

Yes. "Meh" means unlikely to me? Appreciate the clarification

[G.A.tor]

15 minutes ago, Mr bla bla said:

I read this as a pretty well founded argument *against* the claim that were looking at 300 copies or more ....

I think 300 is a little high. I think 200 is likely. But really can't/likely won't ever know 

[twmjr1]

3 hours ago, G.A.tor said:

Mf52 is still a golden age key...spectre just doesn't get the same love itnonce did, but doesn't change the fact it's a very important ga key

And it sells for a king's ransom, when you can find one available. Try finding an unrestored copy for less than about 30k now. Bet you never will. I bought my 52 raw from Metro in 2007. I've since had it graded and slabbed, it's a 4.5 conserved. Damn glad I bought it when I did.

[HRCostigan]

9 hours ago, Pickie said:

What's the "scarcity index" for AC1 and Tec27 in the Gerber Photo Journals (don't have my books at hand right now).

AC1 is a Gerber 7, and Tec 27 is a Gerber 6.

[rjpb]

Thinking of high prices for fairly common collectibles, probably close to100 copies of AF #15 are sold on ebay a year, another two dozen by Heritage, and I'm sure you can at least double the total of those two with sales from other auction houses, conventions, websites and private sales. Some of these copies are probably the same book sold more than once in a year, and the majority are low grade, but even for those it's low five figures or close to it for the very low grade. There are over 2700 copies on the census (with plenty of redundancy no doubt) and while most copies sold are slabbed, I have little doubt there are still at least as many raw copies out there ( was it G.A.tor who said he knew of a stash of 50 raw copies a few years back?)  Even if we leave out unrestored high grade copies ( 8.0 and above) which are relatively scarce, it's a conservative guess that the market can absorb at least 200 sales a year, at an aggregate value of at least $3M, for a book that there are thousands of extant copies of. There is a lot of money in this hobby.

Edited June 21, 2017 by rjpb

[twmjr1]

1 minute ago, rjpb said:

Thinking of high prices for fairly common collectibles, probably close to100 copies of AF #15 are sold on ebay a year, another two dozen by Heritage, and I'm sure you can  at double the total of those two with sales from other auction houses, conventions, websites and private sales. Some of these copies are probably the same book sold more than once in a year, and the majority are low grade, but even for those it's low five figures or close to it for the very low grade. There are over 2700 copies on the census (with plenty of redundancy no doubt) and while most copies sold are slabbed, I have little doubt there are still at least as many raw copies out there ( was it G.A.tor who said he knew of a stash of 50 raw copies a few years back?)  Even if we leave out unrestored high grade copies ( 8.0 and above) which are relatively scarce, it's a conservative guess that the market can absorb at least 200 sales a year, at an aggregate value of at least $3M, for a book that there are thousands of extant copies of. There is a lot of money in this hobby.

And more money coming into it every day.  And AF 15 is still a can't lose investment IMO.