Discussed but been a while: Existing #s of mega keys 1 1

[Chicago Boy]

6 minutes ago, HRCostigan said:

AC1 is a Gerber 7, and Tec 27 is a Gerber 6.

Would you (or anyone) mind explaining the Gerber Scarcity Index to me?  Curious as to the # for AA 16 and Flash 1 as well.  Thank you in advance if anyone is willing to assist

[HRCostigan]

AA16 is Gerber 7.  The scarcity index runs from 1 (very common) to 11 (non-existent).  7 is called scarce, estimated at the time of publication as 21 to 50 extant.  It is commonly believed now that those estimated extant numbers were low, with the Internet having made it easier to locate books.  However, the scarcity index is still valued as a rule of thumb, not applicable in all cases, for scarcity of books relative to each other.

[Crowzilla]

4 hours ago, Bookery said:

As one who enjoys paper collectibles across a broad spectrum, even after decades in the business I will never cease to be amazed by these books.  I don't believe there is another collectible of any kind that reaches these kinds of valuations with such a large number of copies available. ... Others with more knowledge can chime in... but I'm guessing there are not even any classic automobiles, furniture antiques, rare coins, etc., that will bring over $1-mil. with estimated quantities of 200-300 in existence?

I think this is precisely why comics continue to be such good investments.

They mix the perfect level of desirability and more importantly availability with nostalgia and investment. If you collect some of the other things (like rare movie posters) it can literally be decades in between one of the "mega-keys" being offered, but with comics you can pretty much track down anything you want with a little patience. The Dracula one-sheet that Fishler has is the only known copy, and he bought it more than 25 years ago - if that's the piece you want, you are pretty much out of luck, he's not selling and there aren't any more. There are four different style Dracula one-sheets known to exist, but if you add up all the known copies together you can still do it on two hands. If you want an Action 1 though, that's cool there will be a few offered this year, take your pick.

When things are impossible to find, and never come to market, people get an out of sight, out of mind mentality about it and can get frustrated and give up, but they are also less likely to view it as a legitimate investment since it's so hard to track sales data (and as much as I bash the OSPG, this is another leg up we have on most of those other hobbies - a price guide that comes out every year to "verify" how the investments are doing).  A first edition Frankenstein sounds really cool, but where's the sales data to let me know how this has performed over the years, or the guide to make sure I am really getting a complete first edition, etc.

[Bookery]

36 minutes ago, Crowzilla said:

I think this is precisely why comics continue to be such good investments.

They mix the perfect level of desirability and more importantly availability with nostalgia and investment. If you collect some of the other things (like rare movie posters) it can literally be decades in between one of the "mega-keys" being offered, but with comics you can pretty much track down anything you want with a little patience. The Dracula one-sheet that Fishler has is the only known copy, and he bought it more than 25 years ago - if that's the piece you want, you are pretty much out of luck, he's not selling and there aren't any more. There are four different style Dracula one-sheets known to exist, but if you add up all the known copies together you can still do it on two hands. If you want an Action 1 though, that's cool there will be a few offered this year, take your pick.

When things are impossible to find, and never come to market, people get an out of sight, out of mind mentality about it and can get frustrated and give up, but they are also less likely to view it as a legitimate investment since it's so hard to track sales data (and as much as I bash the OSPG, this is another leg up we have on most of those other hobbies - a price guide that comes out every year to "verify" how the investments are doing).  A first edition Frankenstein sounds really cool, but where's the sales data to let me know how this has performed over the years, or the guide to make sure I am really getting a complete first edition, etc.

Of course, per your opening sentence, it could also be viewed as comic collectors being way out of line on what they are willing to pay vs. availability... it's all a matter of perspective.  Movies are driving collector values right now.  Eventually, the movie fad will move elsewhere.  (Far more Tarzan movies were produced than all of the current major comic-hero franchises combined... but eventually the demand for them faded as did high-levels of collector interest).

But, I agree with pretty much what you say above.  Some things are actually TOO RARE to be highly collectible.  This is one of the factors that has kept pulp prices way below their comics counterparts.  Despite more gruesome horror covers, more flamboyant good-girl art, more eye-catching SF themes... a copycat-cover on a comic book will bring many times what the original pulp will.  And a lot of that has to do with the fact that pulps are just too hard and frustrating to collect for many... and if you're obsessed with high grades... forget it.  And movie posters are awkward to display... not much fun flipping through folded-posters in a box... and unless you live at the Biltmore... tough to find wall-space to devote to them.

[Crowzilla]

40 minutes ago, Bookery said:

  Movies are driving collector values right now.  Eventually, the movie fad will move elsewhere.  

We are pretty much on the same page, except I'm still not sure I believe the movie hype thing affects anything at the very top. 

Yes, in 1989 we sold every Batman item that wasn't nailed down (and even a few that were) and it might drive $5 comics to $500, but I don't think anyone who isn't a collector sees the Batman movie and decides  they need to spend $1 million on a comic. But it definitely makes existing collectors who were already predisposed to buying books more likely to do so.

[N e r V]

22 hours ago, twmjr1 said:

Discussed but been a while: Existing #s of mega keys

Looking at the CGC census, 67 and 65 copies for Action 1, Tec 27. How many other copies might be out there? Maybe 100 for each? That would be my guess. Can't imagine more people than that are just holding raw copies in long term collections. Any complete copy of either book will sell for over 200k now. That kind of money is too much for most to resist. I've read estimates of 200 plus total copies for each book, but I doubt that's accurate.

If you don't need the money it's not. 200k is the price of a new car for some people. 

The Allentown Detective #27 and Church Action #1 would be regular attractions at auctions if money was all that it was about.

[ComicConnoisseur]

I think what helped the comic book hobby is the Marvel and DC Universes have stayed in the public eye and keep updating themselves with modern audiences.

The two of the top 3 biggest box office movies this year were movies about Marvel and DC characters Guardians and Wonder Woman, than you got the hit Marvel and DC shows on Netflix,Fox and CW. Add videogames and other merchandise to the list and we will find these characters have stayed relavant with modern audiences. A lot of these other hobbies have faded fast like stamps, and model trains.

Nothing against stamps and model trains as they are historically cool,but they just can't compete with the Amazing Spider-Man,Batman,Superman and Deadpool on a mainstream level.

Edited June 21, 2017 by ComicConnoisseur

[pemart1966]

40 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

I think what helped the comic book hobby is the Marvel and DC Universes have stayed in the public eye and keep updating themselves with modern audiences.

The two of the top 3 biggest box office movies this year were movies about Marvel and DC characters Guardians and Wonder Woman, than you got the hit Marvel and DC shows on Netflix,Fox and CW. Add videogames and other merchandise to the list and we will find these characters have stayed relavant with modern audiences. A lot of these other hobbies have faded fast like stamps, and model trains.

Nothing against stamps and model trains as they are historically cool,but they just can't compete with the Amazing Spider-Man,Batman,Superman and Deadpool on a mainstream level.

Although I'd argue that slabbed comics are the new stamps...

[twmjr1]

1 hour ago, Crowzilla said:

We are pretty much on the same page, except I'm still not sure I believe the movie hype thing affects anything at the very top. 

Yes, in 1989 we sold every Batman item that wasn't nailed down (and even a few that were) and it might drive $5 comics to $500, but I don't think anyone who isn't a collector sees the Batman movie and decides  they need to spend $1 million on a comic. But it definitely makes existing collectors who were already predisposed to buying books more likely to do so.

I agree to an extent, BUT I think the success of the Marvel movies, and to a lesser degree the DC movies and CW network DC series has brought SOME higher end money into the hobby. Some of it is coming from Europe and Asia, where these movie and TV properties are also very popular.

Edited June 21, 2017 by twmjr1

[1950's war comics]

3 hours ago, Bookery said:

Of course, per your opening sentence, it could also be viewed as comic collectors being way out of line on what they are willing to pay vs. availability... it's all a matter of perspective.  Movies are driving collector values right now.  Eventually, the movie fad will move elsewhere.  (Far more Tarzan movies were produced than all of the current major comic-hero franchises combined... but eventually the demand for them faded as did high-levels of collector interest).

But, I agree with pretty much what you say above.  Some things are actually TOO RARE to be highly collectible.  This is one of the factors that has kept pulp prices way below their comics counterparts.  Despite more gruesome horror covers, more flamboyant good-girl art, more eye-catching SF themes... a copycat-cover on a comic book will bring many times what the original pulp will.  And a lot of that has to do with the fact that pulps are just too hard and frustrating to collect for many... and if you're obsessed with high grades... forget it.  And movie posters are awkward to display... not much fun flipping through folded-posters in a box... and unless you live at the Biltmore... tough to find wall-space to devote to them.

Yep , that is what famous numismatist Q David Bowers said when he first started in coins in the 1950's

" To be a great collectible, there has to be demand, and there has to be supply to meet that demand"

Edited June 21, 2017 by 1950's war comics

[sfcityduck]

9 hours ago, Mr bla bla said:

And yes I tend to believe that if the population is 250-300 copies we would see more than 60 slabs in census after 17 years of entombing. But full disclosure: this IS gut feeling.

 

 

Well ... you are forgetting that there are copies which have been entombed by companies other than CGC.  The PGX 9.0 (SP), the CBCS 9.0 (R), and others come immediately to mind. 

You are also ignoring that there are many collectors who buy these books to hold for the rest of their lives.  Dave Anderson's Action 1 (Mile High 9.2-9.4) was bought back in the early 80s as was the PGX 9.0 (SP).  Guys who bought Action 1s back in the days when they were a four to low five figure pick-up may feel no downside to holding on to the books because they don't need to recoup the costs.  There is no reason to entomb a book you don't want to sell, so these copies site in safety deposit boxes, safes, and fortresses.  This contrasts with guys like Darren, who bought the Action 1 (CGC 9.0 blinding white) from a long time holder and flipped it in relatively short order after submitting it for a press.  But, even that book, had been in the hands of collectors for decades before it was entombed.

 

[sfcityduck]

2 hours ago, N e r V said:

If you don't need the money it's not. 200k is the price of a new car for some people. 

The Allentown Detective #27 and Church Action #1 would be regular attractions at auctions if money was all that it was about.

Yep.  Doesn't DA own an entire pedigree that has never been slabbed or its full contents publicly disclosed.  I would not be surprised if that guy was sitting on some "reading copies" or had some dupes he's never disclosed.  Some of those old time collectors are really secretive. 

[Knightsofold]

5 hours ago, Crowzilla said:

We are pretty much on the same page, except I'm still not sure I believe the movie hype thing affects anything at the very top. 

Yes, in 1989 we sold every Batman item that wasn't nailed down (and even a few that were) and it might drive $5 comics to $500, but I don't think anyone who isn't a collector sees the Batman movie and decides  they need to spend $1 million on a comic. But it definitely makes existing collectors who were already predisposed to buying books more likely to do so.

I was under the impression that recent movies been responsible for the spike of wealthy international collectors.  Is that not so?

[twmjr1]

1 hour ago, Knightsofold said:

I was under the impression that recent movies been responsible for the spike of wealthy international collectors.  Is that not so?

I think so, at least to some degree.

[Chicago Boy]

8 hours ago, HRCostigan said:

AA16 is Gerber 7.  The scarcity index runs from 1 (very common) to 11 (non-existent).  7 is called scarce, estimated at the time of publication as 21 to 50 extant.  It is commonly believed now that those estimated extant numbers were low, with the Internet having made it easier to locate books.  However, the scarcity index is still valued as a rule of thumb, not applicable in all cases, for scarcity of books relative to each other.

Thanks for this!  I'm very intrigued and need to get myself a copy! Couldn't find Flash 1 scarcity index # on line--do you happen to have it's number ?

[HRCostigan]

1 minute ago, Chicago Boy said:

Thanks for this!  I'm very intrigued and need to get myself a copy! Couldn't find Flash 1 scarcity index # on line--do you happen to have it's number ?

Flash 1 is Gerber 6 and I thank you for prompting me to spend some time with these glorious photo-journals!

[atomised]

my co-worker's uncle has a raw Action 1 in a safe.  I know it sounds far fetched as these stories often do, but apparently it's a part of a much larger collection this guy in Boston has.  I've tried many times, through his nephew to see if he'd be interested in selling other books.  I don't have funds for an AC1 so I put together my want list of other GA books I'm interested in. Never got a response.  I ask my friend (since I see him daily) why is he holding onto those books. He has no idea.  I think that's the thing.  There are probably some folks, how many I don't know, that have these books and just keep 'em.  

Edited June 22, 2017 by atomised

[N e r V]

I think the actual number of collectors and collections "off the grid" is always going to be a subject of debate. There are probably more of them though than the average active collector believes.

Some people just want to be left alone to enjoy their collections without being pestered to sell it by other dealers/collectors too. 

None of this is going to change the facts that Suspense Comics #3 is tough to find copies or Action Comics #1 is expensive and doesn't grow on trees. It just means that the guesses of copies existing only takes into account the "known" or "active" copies in the hobby and that there are more out there that aren't "known". Guessing that number is probably pointless but it's not like Bangzoom was some kind of unicorn in the world of comics collecting. I know of several including a couple in my own family but if I ever tried to guess how many other large private comic collections there are in the 50 states what would I base this information on? Where would I draw my facts from? The fact we have copies of comics existing since day one they were born in the early 1930's shows there were collectors of some type from the beginning. 

Edited June 22, 2017 by N e r V

[ComicConnoisseur]

16 hours ago, 1950's war comics said:

Yep , that is what famous numismatist Q David Bowers said when he first started in coins in the 1950's

" To be a great collectible, there has to be demand, and there has to be supply to meet that demand"

This is what is so cool about comic books is they have so many keys to fit that criteria for just about every decade. 

Coins and the stamp hobbies themselves don't really have that and that is why interest is tailing off drastically in both hobbies.

Either the coins and stamps are so rare that only a few people will ever have a shot at owning them do to supply(Inverted Jenny and 1933 Double Eagle) or no demand basically for any modern coins or stamps post 1930(made in 100,000,000 millions) unless there was an error.

Here in comics every decade has a key that continues to grow in interest do to demand and supply to meet that demand.

If someone cherry picked the best comics compared to cherry picking the best stamps and coins that came out from 1938 and up,than comics would have won.

That says something of how fast the hobby of comics has grown and continues to grow into eventually the number one hobby surpassing the once mighty coin and stamp hobbies that use to look down at comic book collecting.

 

 

 

[bluechip]

19 hours ago, Knightsofold said:

I was under the impression that recent movies been responsible for the spike of wealthy international collectors.  Is that not so?

I don't understand the logic being employed by people who say that hit movies expanding a character's awareness to billions of people are not a contributing factor in the value of something that's valued over a million dollars.    What else, then?   There must be something factoring into that value because the value is there.   So, if the movies that make the character beloved and widely known have no impact, what does?    The comic books themselves, read by hundreds of thousands?  The old TV show seen my millions?    How could a person believe those things would have an impact but that films known by billions would not?  

Edited June 22, 2017 by bluechip