Discussed but been a while: Existing #s of mega keys 1 1

[twmjr1]

Discussed but been a while: Existing #s of mega keys

Looking at the CGC census, 67 and 65 copies for Action 1, Tec 27. How many other copies might be out there? Maybe 100 for each? That would be my guess. Can't imagine more people than that are just holding raw copies in long term collections. Any complete copy of either book will sell for over 200k now. That kind of money is too much for most to resist. I've read estimates of 200 plus total copies for each book, but I doubt that's accurate.

Edited June 20, 2017 by twmjr1

[G.A.tor]

24 minutes ago, twmjr1 said:

Discussed but been a while: Existing #s of mega keys

Looking at the CGC census, 67 and 65 copies for Action 1, Tec 27. How many other copies might be out there? Maybe 100 for each? That would be my guess. Can't imagine more people than that are just holding raw copies in long term collections. Any complete copy of either book will sell for over 200k now. That kind of money is too much for most to resist. I've read estimates of 200 plus total copies for each book, but I doubt that's accurate.

I think 200 is maybe a bit low. There are about 130 "known" copies so I figured as many unknown (for example there's a collector in Ca with 3 raw copies)

200-250 might be accurate or maybe even a little conservative imo

[ComicConnoisseur]

2 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

I think 200 is maybe a bit low. There are about 130 "known" copies so I figured as many unknown (for example there's a collector in Ca with 3 raw copies)

200-250 might be accurate or maybe even a little conservative imo

Of the big 2 which one you think is rarer? Action 1 or Tec 27.

[twmjr1]

7 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

I think 200 is maybe a bit low. There are about 130 "known" copies so I figured as many unknown (for example there's a collector in Ca with 3 raw copies)

200-250 might be accurate or maybe even a little conservative imo

I just can't believe there'd be over 100 unknown copies of these books left in the world.

[twmjr1]

5 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Of the big 2 which one you think is rarer? Action 1 or Tec 27.

Tec 27

[ComicConnoisseur]

Just now, twmjr1 said:

Tec 27

Interesting. By a good number or close?

[rjpb]

The print runs of Action #1 and Superman #1 were 150K and 900K respectively, and supposedly both were near sell outs. While the survival rate, let alone CGC census count, are not going to be identical in ratio for any two comics published near the same time, that the current census ratio between the two books is 2:1, which is significantly closer than the 6:1 printing ratio, leads me to believe that the majority of extant copies of any GA book still remain raw. 

[twmjr1]

Just now, ComicConnoisseur said:

Interesting. By a good number or close?

I'd guess they're pretty close, but that there are definitely more Action 1s.

[thehumantorch]

1 minute ago, twmjr1 said:

I just can't believe there'd be over 100 unknown copies of these books left in the world.

Unknown is a lot different than CGC graded.  I'm sure there are copies sitting in collections and the owner sees no point in getting them graded until he's ready to sell.  And if you don't need the money and you love the book and the book goes up every year in value you're not motivated to sell by current prices.

[G.A.tor]

13 minutes ago, twmjr1 said:

I just can't believe there'd be over 100 unknown copies of these books left in the world.

Not only do I believe it, i think that 100 might be low. This comes from talking to 1000s of folks at cons, other dealers that knownof copies/sold copies etc etc. pretty safe bet there are way more than 100 

[G.A.tor]

13 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Interesting. By a good number or close?

 

20 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Of the big 2 which one you think is rarer? Action 1 or Tec 27.

They are both about the same (as census shows and as known copies indicates)

[ComicConnoisseur]

13 minutes ago, rjpb said:

The print runs of Action #1 and Superman #1 were 150K and 900K

Anybody know what the supposed prints runs of Tec #27 and Batman #1?

I find this topic fascinating. Two grails that came out before WW2 and paper drives.

[twmjr1]

3 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

Not only do I believe it, i think that 100 might be low. This comes from talking to 1000s of folks at cons, other dealers that knownof copies/sold copies etc etc. pretty safe bet there are way more than 100 

That's a lot of folks sitting on a lot of money, if accurate.

[rjpb]

3 minutes ago, thehumantorch said:

Unknown is a lot different than CGC graded.  I'm sure there are copies sitting in collections and the owner sees no point in getting them graded until he's ready to sell.  And if you don't need the money and you love the book and the book goes up every year in value you're not motivated to sell by current prices.

Not to mention the lack of reasons to slab if you are not going to sell. Who wants to ship a six figure book to Sarasota, pay more for encapsulation than you might have for the book, wait weeks for it to be returned to you, and then feel like you are only holding a big chunk of plastic every time you want to look at it. 

[G.A.tor]

1 minute ago, twmjr1 said:

That's a lot of folks sitting on a lot of money, if accurate.

Just extrapolated estimate. Doubt we will ever know. But I've owned 15 diff action 1s and as many tec 27s. Just improbable that's I've owned 15% of existing copies. 

[rjpb]

17 minutes ago, twmjr1 said:

That's a lot of folks sitting on a lot of money, if accurate.

It's been a pretty solid investment so far, if you don't need the cash for something else, there isn't much motivation to sell. There are a lot of folks sitting on a lot of money period, and then there are those who might have a disproportionate amount of their net worth tied up in comic books, but don't care, because it's their hobby, and the amount spent on it wasn't thought of primarily as an investment.

[NoMan]

1 hour ago, thehumantorch said:

Unknown is a lot different than CGC graded.  I'm sure there are copies sitting in collections and the owner sees no point in getting them graded until he's ready to sell.  And if you don't need the money and you love the book and the book goes up every year in value you're not motivated to sell by current prices.

Speaking of which, were those two titles affected (effected?) by the 2009 downturn? 

[twmjr1]

19 minutes ago, NoMan said:

Speaking of which, were those two titles affected (effected?) by the 2009 downturn? 

They appreciated like wildfire, and haven't slowed since.  Neither book has ever depreciated, since the hobby was born. Never. But the past couple of years have been off-the-charts crazy. If any complete copy of either book can be had for less than 200k now, I'd be shocked. Raw, slabbed, restored, trimmed, whatever.

Edited June 20, 2017 by twmjr1

[Knightsofold]

Multiplying cgc census #s by 5 sounds safe to me.

So many were bought and sold before cgc came out and since at least the 80's mega keys have been mega luxury items.  So chances are the owners have no need of the $ to sell, or have no need to grade before selling to a known dealer.

It would be interesting to find out how many of the ones graded are from new finds.

I'd bet most were sent in from dealers who bought them raw from collectors.

[Chicago Boy]

Any insight into All American 16, Flash 1, and/or Pep 22 ??  What "mega key" has the lowest census number along with the lowest possibility of survival ??