The Future of Comic Books 1 1

[Mercury Man]

21 hours ago, TheSSurfer said:

I agree the new Cap America story isn't the best. I was just wondering because I collect for the art, history, and story. Also as a way to spend money and eventually make the money back or even earn a little if possible, but I make sure I buy characters I like so I'm not disappointed entirely. I do consider the chances of said comic going up though, that's for sure.

I dunno, when talking about NEW comics I don't buy them off the shelf 'thinking' it's going to be worth something later.  

I treat it like a regular book.  I buy it, I read it, I keep it.  Someday my book may wind up in a garage sale, and I get a few bucks for it, but ultimately I paid for entertainment of the story.  

Now if a new comic book I purchased for some reason becomes 'collectible' due to some circumstance (hot character, first appearance, harder to find), ok, bonus for me, but I don't actively seek out a profit on a new release comic, nor expect one.   I got Batman 24 a few weeks ago.  I read it last night not knowing there was some 'surprise' ending.  Well, said comic is now going for 4-5 times cover price on EBAY.  Why?  Speculation.  Speculation is a terrible word for any hobby, and it's the speculators that cause the unwarranted fluctuations, crashes, and sell offs.   Should I sell mine for $15, even though I paid $2.99??  Not interested.  I am reading/collecting the run.  What if said book eventually winds up in the $1 bin, and I missed out on that $12 profit?...oh well.   What if Batman 24 becomes HUGE, and somebody offers me a GRAND someday. Awesome, that's great.  But I am not buying umpteen copies now hoping.  I am not holding on to it right now, expecting it to skyrocket. I just have it, because I read it, and I like the character, and I am collecting the run. 

And then there are the variant lemmings.  They have created their own sub-market, and they will be the first ones to bail out. 

 

[Mercury Man]

32 minutes ago, SteppinRazor said:

The main difference between them and comic books is that baseball cards do not have content.  You don't get anything out of a baseball card other than the cover.  There's a whole saga inside a serialized comic book.

Unless the comic is a CGC'd comic-  because its unreadable saga is in sealed plastic 

[SteppinRazor]

Just now, Mercury Man said:

Unless the comic is a CGC'd comic-  because its unreadable saga is in sealed plastic 

true, but it is in there, which helps the hobby.

[Mercury Man]

2 minutes ago, SteppinRazor said:

true, but it is in there, which helps the hobby.

I know, I know, just joshing.  But I do think there is overkill as to what people are sending off and having encased. 

[SteppinRazor]

Just now, Mercury Man said:

I know, I know, just joshing.  But I do think there is overkill as to what people are sending off and having encased. 

 I thought you might come back with Schroedingers Cat

[SteppinRazor]

19 minutes ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

Most people in comics juices at one point or another: hulk, iron man spiderman 

 

 

 

 

Comic fans only care about performance.

[ComicConnoisseur]

On 6/21/2017 at 8:41 PM, jcjames said:

 

Baseball cards aren't the original source-material for so many significant modern cultural stories, characters and icons. These characters and stories are the modern equivalents of King Arthur, Sherlock Holmes, Icarus, Frankenstein, Prometheus, Hamlet, Robin Hood, Hercules, Oedipus, Huck Finn and so many others.

 

Agreed.

Also Spider-Man, and Batman don't age and keep reinventing themselves for modern audiences.

Here is an example in that Batman and Spider-Man stay in the limelight every year with new movies,comics and videogames which allows them to be introduced to new audiences in the millions, while Mickey Mantle and Joe D have not played baseball in going on 50 to 60 plus years.

So while Spider-Man and Batman are getting millions of new fans every year we will find most of these Hall of Fame baseball cards audience is dying out.

Makes me think the Mickey Mantle rookie card is a future long-term bad investment compared to Tec #27 and AF#15.

Batman and Spider-Man get millions of new fans every year,while Mantle's baby boomer audience is dying out.

Now with that said not all sportscards are bad bets and those would be the Michael Jordan,LeBron, Kobe and Tom Brady rookies as their audiences are still in their prime and will see tremendous growth over the next few decades.

 

[rjrjr]

On 6/21/2017 at 5:38 PM, Aweandlorder said:

No they weren't what caused it to crash. 

Variants aren't a problem. People who speculate on them CARELESSLY are the problem. 

While I agree to some extent, it is not wise for the publishers to rely too heavily on variants for sales.  And Marvel is a tad bit too reliant on them right now IMHO.  Take away the variants and how many people are actually buying these comics to read?  

Sure, there are digital comics to buy and read, but we've been seeing TPB sales fall off the past few years and I'm guessing many of those readers are the ones moving to getting their comics digitally since they already left pamphlets, and collecting, behind.  Meanwhile, pamphlet prices go up, publishers release an obscene amount of variants for titles, and the speculators are driving back issue sales.

From my point of view, the industry is very unhealthy right now.

Edited June 24, 2017 by rjrjr

[rjrjr]

On 6/22/2017 at 6:36 AM, 1Cool said:

Agree with you on this one.  The 90s didn't really have a variant problem since there was really no variants per say other then maybe the X-Men 1 having 5 different covers.  The 90s crash occurred because people were buying long boxes of a single copy and putting it in their closet since Wizard said it was going to be a hit.  Companies were making a ton of cash so they thought "why not put out two books a month and double our profits".  Millions of books being gobbled up and stored for investment purposes.  Over production created the 90s crash which I don't think we have going on right now.  The possible "variant crash" would be a whole new issue.  This crash would impact a whole lot less people since the number of investors has to be way less then in the 90s but the amount invested per person I'd think is higher then in the 90s.

It is less people, but a larger percentage of comic buyers than many realize.

[rjrjr]

15 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Agreed.

Also Spider-Man, and Batman don't age and keep reinventing themselves for modern audiences.

Here is an example in that Batman and Spider-Man stay in the limelight every year with new movies,comics and videogames which allows them to be introduced to new audiences in the millions, while Mickey Mantle and Joe D have not played baseball in going on 50 to 60 plus years.

So while Spider-Man and Batman are getting millions of new fans every year we will find most of these Hall of Fame baseball cards audience is dying out.

Makes me think the Mickey Mantle rookie card is a future long-term bad investment compared to Tec #27 and AF#15.

Batman and Spider-Man get millions of new fans every year,while Mantle's baby boomer audience is dying out.

Now with that said not all sportscards are bad bets and those would be the Michael Jordan,LeBron, Kobe and Tom Brady rookies as their audiences are still in their prime and will see tremendous growth over the next few decades.

 

Superhero movies have millions of fans.  Don't kid yourself that a significant fraction of those people care about the source material, comics.  Because they don't.

[rjrjr]

Now to the subject at hand, the future of comics.  I believe the future for most readers is small publishers and standalone ongoing titles.  I see those titles doing well because a reader doesn't have to spend a ton to keep up with their favorite comic.   These will sell well as pamphlets and trades.  They are also inflation proof for the same reasons.  A person who only collects Walking Dead for example, can weather the book rising in price a dollar here or there.  But a person who reads a superhero universe is more than likely buying more than one title and a rise in price is going to have a larger impact on them.  Also, since small publishers don't have shareholders to worry about, they can survive on smaller profits.

Superhero universes are unaffordable for most people and are a huge money sink.  They are also primarily where the collecting market is at.  Affluent people collect comics books, hence the reason we have been seeing a huge rise in keys and select variant covers.  CGC exists because of these people.  Affluent collectors are also driving the modern superhero market and Marvel knows it, hence their continued use of rarer and rarer variants to sell more issues.  Eventually, when it becomes apparent the cost to publish comics is closing in on the return they make, Marvel (Disney) and DC (Time Warner/AT&T) will turn to licensing their characters to smaller publishers.  We'll know when this happens when these publishers start turning to more inexpensive talent first.  I believe it is only a matter of time before that happens.

Digital does appear to be a show changer, but in a way most people are currently ignoring.  I think comics being available online for free is going to be a huge problem for the big publishers.  I also think the number of people turning to free online sites as a way to keep up with their favorite characters will increase.  This is also another reason why Marvel overemphasizes the variant covers.

Overall, I do think we will see a greater shift to small publishers and away from the big two.  It has been happening slowly anyways for the past decade, but I feel this will accelerate.  Marvel and DC's attempts to compensate for lost buyers will be the driving factor in this acceleration.  The end result will be the loss of many brick and mortar stores.

Comics will still exist, just not with the same mix we have today.  You'll be able to pick up your Peter Parker Spider-Man published by Dark Horse and your Mile Morales Spider-Man from Boom Studios either direct from the publisher, at an online retailer, or digitally.  IDW will be the only licensee for Star Wars though, so all is good.

Edited June 24, 2017 by rjrjr

[Ken Aldred]

19 minutes ago, rjrjr said:

Affluent people collect comics books

Yup.  They're the only ones that can easily afford Mile High's exorbitant prices.

[Ken Aldred]

28 minutes ago, rjrjr said:

 We'll know when this happens when these publishers start turning to more inexpensive talent first

I've felt that Marvel have already being doing this for years.  One reason I don't read that much of their product anymore.  I'd probably feel similarly if I had a close look at DC's recent output.

Alternatively, it could be that I'm simply not connecting to more modern art styles.

Edited June 24, 2017 by Ken Aldred

[ComicConnoisseur]

9 hours ago, rjrjr said:

Superhero movies have millions of fans.  Don't kid yourself that a significant fraction of those people care about the source material, comics.  Because they don't.

Comic book fans are in the millions as well if we go by sales on Ebay. It is not just about the superhero movie fans.

9 hours ago, rjrjr said:

Digital does appear to be a show changer, but in a way most people are currently ignoring.  I think comics being available online for free is going to be a huge problem for the big publishers.  I also think the number of people turning to free online sites as a way to keep up with their favorite characters will increase.  This is also another reason why Marvel overemphasizes the variant covers.

I see comics being available online as the best thing because it opens doors to many new readers who would never go to a LCS or who had trouble finding comics.

Comics are going to be more popular than ever because of this,just not in the traditional way that most are use to.

So with that I mean is that digital comics will allow for many more comics to be read by many new readers,but the flipper who tries to flip that $3.99 comic for $8.00 might have a harder time.

So the conclusion is comics will get more popular than ever with comic readers thanks to digital, but people flipping the modern comics are going to have a harder job to make profits.

Edited June 24, 2017 by ComicConnoisseur

[Ken Aldred]

2 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

I see comics being available online as the best thing because it opens doors to many new readers who would never go to a LCS or who had trouble finding comics.

Yup. One reason I prefer reading digital comics, as it negates the old school problem that I experienced as a kid; getting recommendations by book exchange or later on by comic shop employees about issues or stories which they made sound to be something very special.  If I couldn’t find the original issue or run for years, or it took years for them to be reprinted, I was sometimes extremely disappointed by what I ended up reading.  That's personal taste for you, of course.

Easy digital availability destroys that mystique, which my long-term experiences as a comics reader have left me believing really isn't that good a thing.  I prefer a more relaxed and fuss-free way to enjoy and to explore my hobby.

Edited June 24, 2017 by Ken Aldred

[grebal]

On ‎6‎/‎22‎/‎2017 at 7:13 PM, SteppinRazor said:

As for the collecting hobby, I think that the group of collectors is aging and not being replaced in a 1:1 ratio, so fewer people will want to buy.  They will drop in monetary value across the board.

 

I've read this argument before that the total number of comic collectors will dwindle in the future, even believed it a while. but find some flawed assumptions - 1 fewer people will have the 'collecting gene' or the future collectors will pick something other than comics, 2 a smaller % of population who collect comics will not be offset by growing size of potential people who might become collectors - e.g. more women collectors, more and more people being born, more and more non-US people buying comics, etc.

[SteppinRazor]

22 minutes ago, grebal said:

I've read this argument before that the total number of comic collectors will dwindle in the future, even believed it a while. but find some flawed assumptions - 1 fewer people will have the 'collecting gene' or the future collectors will pick something other than comics, 2 a smaller % of population who collect comics will not be offset by growing size of potential people who might become collectors - e.g. more women collectors, more and more people being born, more and more non-US people buying comics, etc.

Potentially.  I guess we'll have to wait and see, but I think paper's days are numbered

[1Cool]

14 hours ago, grebal said:

I've read this argument before that the total number of comic collectors will dwindle in the future, even believed it a while. but find some flawed assumptions - 1 fewer people will have the 'collecting gene' or the future collectors will pick something other than comics, 2 a smaller % of population who collect comics will not be offset by growing size of potential people who might become collectors - e.g. more women collectors, more and more people being born, more and more non-US people buying comics, etc.

I'm not seeing any flaws in the assumption that comic sales and comic book collections will drastically decline in the future.  Kids today do not collect comic books - period.  A few kids read comics and maybe a very, very few are actually comic book collectors but from a statistical point of view I think it's safe to say almost none of the kids under 18 today collect comic books.  Especially if you compare it to people in their 40s and even 30s, you have to see a drastic drop off in readership when you get to the younger generation.  My local library has huge bins of comic books in the teen section and I have to admit I go in and grab a few to read while waiting on my daughter to finish something up.  Never ever . . ever seen one teen looking at the comics or reading a comic while I'm there.  100s of free comics to read and I've never seen one being looked at.

There is some uncertainty when you talk about international buyers like China and India but I think it's safe to say those markets are not big collectors of US comic books and they probably never will.  Women readers and even woman collectors are on the uptick but their numbers are nowhere close to the number of guys who use to collect comics. 

No one can see the future and people have been signaling the drop in comic book prices for decades but that is from a vantage point of prices are just too high instead of there is no new collectors (readers).  The 1970s and 1980s (early 1990s) was the golden age in terms of comic book collecting and number of people actively buying and selling comics and those guys are now hitting prime money making portion of their lives.  Prices may be higher then sustainable but no one can argue there is a ton of us who loved comics as a youth and want to rebuy some of those memories.  That number will definitely plummet in the future and I don't think that is arguable at this point.

Edited June 26, 2017 by 1Cool

[Quicksilver Signs]

I don't think there is one title printed today that would not have been cancelled in the 70's. Print runs of 100k is considered high today. In the 1950's there were more comics printed in one week than all year now. 

[OrangeNemesis]

I don't really care to read a comic I can't smell the pages on. And I'm not sniffing my computer screen.....