All the Overstreet Top 20 Silver Age Lists 1 1

[Knightsofold]

15 hours ago, Howling Mad said:

I'm just going to say it, because I think plenty of people are thinking it.

Clearly a number of these increases (or rarely decreases) are finger in the wind. There's periods where the growth is just astonishing, and then periods of virtual stagnation. Looking over these images 25-50% of growth for years at a time? Hogwash.

Now don't get me wrong, this is excellent for old collectors, but I now have a better grasp on why some of the even more minor books are fetching $5K+ in 9.2 and above. It's crazy to see the movement on a number of these books. As well as the appearances of books such as Adventure Comics #210, Big Boy, and Richie Rich, etc.

Say it because I'm not sure what you mean.  I'm guessing you don't think the gains are sustainable?  Or the market is artificial?

I want to compile all the info into some charts that take today's value of the dollar into account.  

Thanks for all the contributions.

[Terry E.]

I think it is that books such as SC 8 or Adventure 247 or even SC4 don't often trade at the top end. Yeah you can say , well a 7.0 or 6.5 traded at that and it is up x% but due to the rarity of the top copies it is just a guess. Seriously if SC 4 sells over 9.0 goes  this year, then watch it jump next year. Marvels have more copies at the top grades (9.2) that the guide is based more around actual sales, dealer feedback etc. that it is easier to judge.  So when one of these rare ones sell the guide does a period adjustment. Track SC 8 and it bounces up every few years. Only 2 @ 9.0 next is 8.0, so when ever one of the 9.0s sell then bump.

[Howling Mad]

7 hours ago, Knightsofold said:

Say it because I'm not sure what you mean.  I'm guessing you don't think the gains are sustainable?  Or the market is artificial?

I want to compile all the info into some charts that take today's value of the dollar into account.  

Thanks for all the contributions.

Simply put, I don't understand how some of these books have appreciated at the rates they have, especially taking supply and demand into account.

Grading and eBay basically bottomed out the sports card market, yet for comics it appears to have done the opposite. Even though there's more high-grade copies of say AF15 or FF1 in collector's hands then ever the growth continues at a significant pace.

Generally one would assume that the basic concept of supply and demand comes into play. Given that there's more availability of high-grade copies, even though high-end collectors and dealers may be sitting on them, means that values go down. Now I'm not saying that values on these books should have gone down, however growth of 10-20% virtually year over year seems impossible.

I think it would be really cool to chart out the last 10 or 20 years, and determine the shear growth percentage of each. From there a graph could be created that accounted for inflation and dollar value as of 2017--that would be very interesting to see.

[Knightsofold]

1 hour ago, Howling Mad said:

Simply put, I don't understand how some of these books have appreciated at the rates they have, especially taking supply and demand into account.

Grading and eBay basically bottomed out the sports card market, yet for comics it appears to have done the opposite. Even though there's more high-grade copies of say AF15 or FF1 in collector's hands then ever the growth continues at a significant pace.

Generally one would assume that the basic concept of supply and demand comes into play. Given that there's more availability of high-grade copies, even though high-end collectors and dealers may be sitting on them, means that values go down. Now I'm not saying that values on these books should have gone down, however growth of 10-20% virtually year over year seems impossible.

I think it would be really cool to chart out the last 10 or 20 years, and determine the shear growth percentage of each. From there a graph could be created that accounted for inflation and dollar value as of 2017--that would be very interesting to see.

I agree with some of your concerns and want to work on charting like you said.

I don't see the how the sports card market bottomed out, here's a link that in my opinion shows the sports market doing just fine.  sold auto sports cards:  https://www.ebay.com/sch/Sports-Trading-Cards/212/i.html?_from=R40&Era=Modern+(1981-Now)&LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1&_mPrRngCbx=1&_udlo=500&_udhi=99999999&_nkw=auto&_sop=16

I posted them earlier this year The Future of Comic Books thread.

 

 

 

[Knightsofold]

2 hours ago, Terry E. said:

I think it is that books such as SC 8 or Adventure 247 or even SC4 don't often trade at the top end. Yeah you can say , well a 7.0 or 6.5 traded at that and it is up x% but due to the rarity of the top copies it is just a guess. Seriously if SC 4 sells over 9.0 goes  this year, then watch it jump next year. Marvels have more copies at the top grades (9.2) that the guide is based more around actual sales, dealer feedback etc. that it is easier to judge.  So when one of these rare ones sell the guide does a period adjustment. Track SC 8 and it bounces up every few years. Only 2 @ 9.0 next is 8.0, so when ever one of the 9.0s sell then bump.

I'd like to compare/chart the top Silver Age book ranks and prices in LOW GRADE values as well, and look for differences.

[Howling Mad]

1 hour ago, Knightsofold said:

I agree with some of your concerns and want to work on charting like you said.

I don't see the how the sports card market bottomed out, here's a link that in my opinion shows the sports market doing just fine.  sold auto sports cards:  https://www.ebay.com/sch/Sports-Trading-Cards/212/i.html?_from=R40&Era=Modern+(1981-Now)&LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1&_mPrRngCbx=1&_udlo=500&_udhi=99999999&_nkw=auto&_sop=16

I posted them earlier this year The Future of Comic Books thread.

 

 

 

Great thread! Thanks for passing this along!

[lou_fine]

16 hours ago, Howling Mad said:

Grading and eBay basically bottomed out the sports card market, yet for comics it appears to have done the opposite. Even though there's more high-grade copies of say AF15 or FF1 in collector's hands then ever the growth continues at a significant pace.

Generally one would assume that the basic concept of supply and demand comes into play. Given that there's more availability of high-grade copies, even though high-end collectors and dealers may be sitting on them, means that values go down. Now I'm not saying that values on these books should have gone down, however growth of 10-20% virtually year over year seems impossible.

Since you are posting this in a thread talking about Overstreet, I assume you must then be talking about valuation growth from a price guide point of view then.  Since you seem to be more knowledgeable about the sports card card market relative to the comic books market, there may be simple but signficant differences between the pricing guide models in the sports card market as compared to the Overstreet pricing guide model used for comic books. 

Since I am not familiar at all with the pricing guide model for the sports cards, can you enlightened us as to the following:

1)  Is there more than just one pricing guide for the sports card market or are we back to only one now;

2)  Do the price guide(s) for sports cards attempt to fully valued the various cards in the guide to what they are actually selling for in the marketplace, or do they intentionally lag behind the marketplace, especially for in-demand cards which might be moving up in price quite fast;

3)  Is the top listed condition level listed in the sports card price guide set right at the maximum top level or is it set somewhere lower and at a more reasonable condition level so that it is not trying to account for the highly volatile and speculative portion of the marketplace; and

4)  Who determines the final price that is going to into the sports card price guide?  Is it set by a large group of different people or is it primarily done through the direction of one main person who oversees the whole thing and most probably have the final say when it comes to significant changes?

I have a pretty good idea as to the answers for these questions with respect to the comic book price guide model and just want to see if there are significant differences when it comes to the sports card price guide model which might provide you with the answer to your question up above. 

Edited August 9, 2017 by lou_fine

[Howling Mad]

15 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Since you are posting this in a thread talking about Overstreet, I assume you must then be talking about valuation growth from a price guide point of view then.  Since you seem to be more knowledgeable about the sports card card market relative to the comic books market, there may be simple but signficant differences between the pricing guide models in the sports card market as compared to the Overstreet pricing guide model used for comic books. 

Since I am not familiar at all with the pricing guide model for the sports cards, can you enlightened us as to the following:

1)  Is there more than just one pricing guide for the sports card market or are we back to only one now;

2)  Do the price guide(s) for sports cards attempt to fully valued the various cards in the guide to what they are actually selling for in the marketplace, or do they intentionally lag behind the marketplace, especially for in-demand cards which might be moving up in price quite fast;

3)  Is the top listed condition level listed in the sports card price guide set right at the maximum top level or is it set somewhere lower and at a more reasonable condition level so that it is not trying to account for the highly volatile and speculative portion of the marketplace; and

4)  Who determines the final price that is going to into the sports card price guide?  Is it set by a large group of different people or is it primarily done through the direction of one main person who oversees the whole thing and most probably have the final say when it comes to significant changes?

I have a pretty good idea as to the answers for these questions with respect to the comic book price guide model and just want to see if there are significant differences when it comes to the sports card price guide model which might provide you with the answer to your question up above. 

I certainly see where you're going with all of these, and sure, there are some definitive parallels no doubt. But the actual realized growth, not the percentage, is a stark difference. I've been out of sports cards for far, far too long at this point, but similar to comics they experienced a significant correct period in the 90's and early 2000's.

To each his own, but these collectibles and others only have themselves to blame when they crash. It's not vastly different from the stock market. Unprecedented year over year growth driven by emotion more than actual supply and demand variables means that ultimately correction periods need to occur now and then.  I certainly can't be alone in finding some of it (not all of it) a bit ridiculous at times.

[MusterMark]

10 hours ago, Howling Mad said:

I certainly see where you're going with all of these, and sure, there are some definitive parallels no doubt. But the actual realized growth, not the percentage, is a stark difference. I've been out of sports cards for far, far too long at this point, but similar to comics they experienced a significant correct period in the 90's and early 2000's.

To each his own, but these collectibles and others only have themselves to blame when they crash. It's not vastly different from the stock market. Unprecedented year over year growth driven by emotion more than actual supply and demand variables means that ultimately correction periods need to occur now and then.  I certainly can't be alone in finding some of it (not all of it) a bit ridiculous at times.

Depends on what one means by "emotion".  Demand in part consists of "emotion".

[Howling Mad]

14 hours ago, MusterMark said:

Depends on what one means by "emotion".  Demand in part consists of "emotion".

Sure, but we don't need to be so obtuse about this. AF15 has a compounded annual growth of 20% year over year since 1990 accounting for inflation. That's INSANE. It's good, but at the same time it blows my mind. The stock market during the same time, IIRC, is around 10%. That includes the 80's and 90's booms which were off the chart growth at times, but also the pull back in 2007.

Maybe I'm the only one surprised by this, and that's fine, but you still have admit it's remarkable what some of these books have done. Is it sustainable? Maybe, I don't know. Sounds like a lot of overseas collectors are getting into the graded game.

[lou_fine]

23 hours ago, Howling Mad said:

Sure, but we don't need to be so obtuse about this. AF15 has a compounded annual growth of 20% year over year since 1990 accounting for inflation. That's INSANE. It's good, but at the same time it blows my mind. The stock market during the same time, IIRC, is around 10%. That includes the 80's and 90's booms which were off the chart growth at times, but also the pull back in 2007.

From my point of view, you are really comparing apples and oranges here. 

What you have done is gone back and compared the single top performing SA book to the performance of the overall stock market as a whole.  Any bets that if I take a stock like Apple or Google or any other one of the top performing stocks over the past 25 years and compare its single performance to the average performance of the overall SA comic book market, a stock like Apple or Google would win hands down and its performance would be well over 20% compounded annual growth. 

If you take a look at Overstreet's SA Top 50 Chart for this year, there is a total of 34 books in there that had only single digit percentage increases, with some of them ranging as low as zero and 1% only.  Just imagine what the numbers would look like for the books that did not make the Top 50 listing and I bet you that it's nowhere even close to double digit compounded annual growth. 

Edited August 11, 2017 by lou_fine

[Howling Mad]

42 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

From my point of view, you are really comparing apples and oranges here. 

What you have done is gone back and compared the single top performing SA book to the performance of the overall stock market as a whole.  Any bets that if I take a stock like Apple or Google or any other one of the top performing stocks over the past 25 years and compare its single performance to the average performance of the overall SA comic book market, a stock like Apple or Google would win hands down and its performance would be well over 20% compounded annual growth. 

If you take a look at Overstreet's SA Top 50 Chart for this year, there is a total of 34 books in there that had only single digit percentage increases, with some of them ranging as low as zero and 1% only.  Just imagine what the numbers would look like for the books that did not make the Top 50 listing and I bet you that it's nowhere even close to double digit compounded annual growth. 

I'll give you that, no doubt. There's no doubt that AF15 is the standout among them.

Granted that's popularity for you!

[lou_fine]

On 8/10/2017 at 4:16 PM, Howling Mad said:

Sure, but we don't need to be so obtuse about this. AF15 has a compounded annual growth of 20% year over year since 1990 accounting for inflation. That's INSANE. It's good, but at the same time it blows my mind. The stock market during the same time, IIRC, is around 10%. That includes the 80's and 90's booms which were off the chart growth at times, but also the pull back in 2007.

Maybe I'm the only one surprised by this, and that's fine, but you still have admit it's remarkable what some of these books have done. Is it sustainable? Maybe, I don't know. Sounds like a lot of overseas collectors are getting into the graded game.

Although I could easily be wrong here, I am not aware of any new overseas collectors or investors that are getting into the graded comic book game.

Especially in terms of the local and overseas Asian investors that I know who have always gone back to their try and true real estate when it comes to investing their money.  I know of so many local Asian investors who have put only 10% or 20% down on pre-build condos (o less than the cost for a nice mid-grade AF 15 with no MC) and then flipped them out in a year or less at 6-figure profits that they would never ever think of picking up an AF 15 for investment purposes since the potential return would be so much lower.  And this is often even before the excavation hole gets dug in the ground in many cases. 

Another classic example being a non-descript house on the west side of the city that was brought for $3.2M back in early 2014 and then subsequently flipped 4 times before finally being resold for $7.6 a little over 2 years later back in mid 2016.  Now, that's what I call totally INSANE and completely unsustainable, but still a better bet than what any AF 15 could give you.  Especially considering that you've got the concept of leverage working on your side for you with real estate, which you generally would not in the case of comic books. 

Well, that plus the fact they would be entering into a new market which they did not understand at all, as opposed to the real estate market which has run in their blood and pretty much inbred as part of their cultural thinking for generations. 

 

Edited August 13, 2017 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

On 8/8/2017 at 5:15 PM, Howling Mad said:

Simply put, I don't understand how some of these books have appreciated at the rates they have, especially taking supply and demand into account.

Grading and eBay basically bottomed out the sports card market, yet for comics it appears to have done the opposite. Even though there's more high-grade copies of say AF15 or FF1 in collector's hands then ever the growth continues at a significant pace.

Generally one would assume that the basic concept of supply and demand comes into play. Given that there's more availability of high-grade copies, even though high-end collectors and dealers may be sitting on them, means that values go down. Now I'm not saying that values on these books should have gone down, however growth of 10-20% virtually year over year seems impossible.

 

 

On 8/9/2017 at 3:22 PM, Howling Mad said:

On 8/8/2017 at 11:39 PM, lou_fine said:

Since you are posting this in a thread talking about Overstreet, I assume you must then be talking about valuation growth from a price guide point of view then.  Since you seem to be more knowledgeable about the sports card card market relative to the comic books market, there may be simple but signficant differences between the pricing guide models in the sports card market as compared to the Overstreet pricing guide model used for comic books. 

Since I am not familiar at all with the pricing guide model for the sports cards, can you enlightened us as to the following:

1)  Is there more than just one pricing guide for the sports card market or are we back to only one now;

2)  Do the price guide(s) for sports cards attempt to fully valued the various cards in the guide to what they are actually selling for in the marketplace, or do they intentionally lag behind the marketplace, especially for in-demand cards which might be moving up in price quite fast;

3)  Is the top listed condition level listed in the sports card price guide set right at the maximum top level or is it set somewhere lower and at a more reasonable condition level so that it is not trying to account for the highly volatile and speculative portion of the marketplace; and

4)  Who determines the final price that is going to into the sports card price guide?  Is it set by a large group of different people or is it primarily done through the direction of one main person who oversees the whole thing and most probably have the final say when it comes to significant changes?

I have a pretty good idea as to the answers for these questions with respect to the comic book price guide model and just want to see if there are significant differences when it comes to the sports card price guide model which might provide you with the answer to your question up above. 

I certainly see where you're going with all of these, and sure, there are some definitive parallels no doubt. But the actual realized growth, not the percentage, is a stark difference. I've been out of sports cards for far, far too long at this point, but similar to comics they experienced a significant correct period in the 90's and early 2000's.

To each his own, but these collectibles and others only have themselves to blame when they crash. It's not vastly different from the stock market. Unprecedented year over year growth driven by emotion more than actual supply and demand variables means that ultimately correction periods need to occur now and then.  I certainly can't be alone in finding some of it (not all of it) a bit ridiculous at times.

Well ok, since nobody else except you has bothered to comment on my points during the past week, I will give you my personal take on how I believe the Overstreet price guide works.  For those of you who do not want to get completely bored to death or fall into a deep sleep, be warned that you should simply skip this post or thread and go straight to the next one. 

Since I am not too familiar with the SA market except possibly for AF 15, I will use the price guide valuations for Action 13 as an example of how I believe Overstreet works.  Action 13 has often been considered to be possibly the rarest of the early Action's with the Superman covers and has always sold for well over condition guide whenever it hits the marketplace, even in restored condition.  A definite sign of a strong and in-demand book when it can sell for over guide not only in all grades across the entire condition spectrum, but also in restored condition. 

The Atlantic City CGC 9.2 graded copy of Action 13 was auctioned off by Metro back in 2011 for $185K when the price guide at the time had the 9.2 top of guide valuation on the book set at only $30K.  Now in theory, if the price guide is "linked" to the marketplace, you would expect the guide to reflect the full value of this sale or at least a good portion of it in next year's edition of the guide.  But no, in the next edition of the 2012 price guide, Overstreet raises the valuation of Action 13 by a full 50% (largest percentage gainer in his Top 100 Chart) as the book goes from $30K up to $45K.  In subsequent following years, the top of guide valuations continue to increase up to $60K, $75K, $100K, $125K, and now at $160K for this year.  No doubt it's price guide valuation will hit the $185K mark next year or 7 full years after the actual $185K sale of the Atlantic City copy.

In the 7-year interim there has been no public sale of another high grade copy of Action 13 that I am aware of.  There have been the occasional sale of lower graded copies and I believe one mid-grade copy, all done at multiples of condition guide levels at the time even as the continuing increases in the top of guide valuations are also pulling up all of the lower condition valuations along with it at the same time.  For example, Heritage auctioned off a raw Poor 0.5 copy of Action 13 last summer in 2016 at almost $15K when the Good 2.0 valuation for this book has now been raised to $14K for this year (as compared to only $1,765 back in 2011).  So, when the 9.2 top of guide valuation for Action 13 hits $185K or whatever for next year, my bet is that the actual true market value for a 9.2 copy of Action 13 would be well over $300K.

So, what you see as unprecedented year over year valuation growth driven by emotion is in fact the exact opposite.  The valuations in the price guide, especially on the hobby's top of the line and in-demand books are actually lagged, measured, and controlled in such a way as to give the impression that the market is strong, healthy, and moving up on a continuous basis.  You have to remember that Bob is one of the pioneer comic book collectors out there and has an absolute and passionate love for this hobby or ours.  He has always wanted this market to grow in a strong and healthy fashion and accordingly, has used his price guide valuations to grow and nurture the market over the decades.  And it seems to have work as he has managed to see Action 1 rise from $300 all the way to up to its current valuation of $3.2M and for AF 15 to rise from $16 up to its current valuation of $350K based upon his top of price guide valuations.  Interesting to note that what was often referred to as the Overstreet Overvalued Price Guide when it first came out in 1970 is now still being seen as being out of touch with the real marketplace, but for the exact opposite reason. 

So, although old slow Bob continues to put in double digit percentage gains on these books, he in fact has quite a few years of "bankable" percentage gains which he can continue to put in to give the impression of a constant rising marketplace.  As a result, he will continue with the double digit percentage increase when a book is hot and when a book hits a cooling period or has plateaued, he will lower the percentage gains down to the low single digits until the marketplace cycles around and the book catches fire again.  For a book which is selling at lower than guide value, he would normally put in a 0% percentage gain and wait for the market to catch up as he absolutely hates to and very rarely ever puts in a price drop in his guide for a book.  It should be pointed out that the large majority of the comic book market is probably sitting at these low or at best middling percentage gains, and only the rare, classic, or standout books are receiving the huge percentage gains on a year over year basis.

Although speculators and collectors who are only in there for the short-term have always complained how out of touch Overstreet is with the real marketplace, most of the long-term collectors and dealers are okay with old Bob's slow and conservative approach because they know that it will help to grow the market in the long term over time, especially with respect to the true vintage investment quality books.  Especially since collectors and investors will always like to purchase books that they believe are undervalued and still have room for continued price acceleration, as opposed to books that are fully valued or possibly even overvalued as the potential for price stagnation or possibly even downside risk is much greater in that particular scenario.

Bottom-line:  Yes, consistent double digit percentage gains year over year is probably not an accurate representation of the true marketplace as it really moves more in spurts based upon availability of books, but what you are seeing in the price guide valuations for the hobby's top of the line in demand key books like Action 1, AF 15, Pep 22, etc. are lagged and controlled growth based upon previously earned and bankable percentage gains in order to move the comic book marketplace in a steady, but ever increasing direction upwards over time. 

[Terry E.]

I was thinking about this in another way over the weekend. I was looking over the top 20 for many on that list the last high sale was either quite a while ago or it is a one off way over guide, 150-175%.

Yeah the guide for many of the rare books (very few over 8.5) that are on the list is way off. Funny thing is the experienced dealers seem to have a better feel for these values than the guide shows.

It may also be why so many books on ebay sold by dealers bear no relationship to the guide. The lesser experienced guys don't want to sell too cheap, so whack a high price on it and then wait for the guide and other auctions to move market expectation higher.

and on another note about overseas buyers. A certain dealer makes regular trips here bringing slabbed and unslabbed big dollar books (at least $10K+ figures). There has to be a market here or he is not going to waste those airfares.

I have also seen books routinely turning up on our local ebay or at Cons that were never sold here new. 10 years ago they just were unknown but they have now been here in such numbers that the are trickling into our second hand market. Not nose bleed dollars but gradually getting there. There are now 2 top 25 on our local ebay that were never sold here and they are not costed at guide either.

So final point, the ranking is pretty close but the dollars are only a guide.

 

[jason4]

Does anyone have the 2019 list?

[aardvark88]

5 hours ago, jason4 said:

Does anyone have the 2019 list?

+1. I would like to know the Overstreet nm value for #20 on the top 20 SA comic list to predict which comic/mag may knock it off the list by summer, 2020.

[lou_fine]

17 hours ago, aardvark88 said:

22 hours ago, jason4 said:

Does anyone have the 2019 list?

+1. I would like to know the Overstreet nm value for #20 on the top 20 SA comic list to predict which comic/mag may knock it off the list by summer, 2020.

Not exactly what Top 20 Chart you are referring to?  

If it's the SA Chart, Overstreet has been running with a Top 50 Chart for almost 5 years now.  

If so, the No. 50 book on the chart this year is Hulk #3 which has been steadily dropping down in the chart over the past few years and might just fall off completely by next year's guide in 2020.  

[Math Teacher]

23 hours ago, jason4 said:

Does anyone have the 2019 list?

Please, would some one be willing to type up the Overstreet Top 50 SA comics? I, too, would like to read it.

 

Joe

[jason4]

Yea the top 50 I mean. I love lists.