AF15 value - will the market 'crash'? 3 3

[UncleAnwar]

I know there are a few af15 related threads on here, but I felt like this was probably a separate discussion.  My bad if this has already been addressed in one of them.

As most, if not all, of us know, the price of af15 has skyrocketed in the past 3-5 years or so.  A mid grade that used to go for $5-$7k at auction is now commanding over $25k.  Craziness. 

I've been collecting since the late 80s, and can't personally remember any one comic jumping so much in value in such a short amount of time?  But maybe there are 1 or 2 I'm overlooking?

Anyway, I was having this discussion with my brother the other day.  Wondering if this current value for the book will hold and steadily keep rising, or if it's set for a crash.  I feel like the popularity in Marvel movies and Marvel getting back Spidey rights has definitely helped this book go up in value, but of course there are factors as well.  

I doubt I'll ever have the cash to own this book if it does hold it's value, which really sucks because I'm a few non-key books (not counting ASM1) away from having ASM 2-400.  At least ASM1 can still be had for a remotely reasonable price I guess.

So do you guys see this book coming back down to earth in price any time soon, or you think it will only continue to go up??

[piper]

You should definitely check out the main AF15 thread, as that's all they talk about there.  Many believe that a crash is imminent.

I personally believe that a correction is inevitable but prices will never return to those from 10 years ago.  I paid $4k for my CGC3.5 copy in 2009. It's the most I've ever paid for a SA book. There's know way I'd feel comfortable buying a copy now without liquidating much of much my collection to help subsidize it.

Very glad to have a copy...

[ernster]

1 hour ago, piper said:

You should definitely check out the main AF15 thread, as that's all they talk about there.  Many believe that a crash is imminent.

I personally believe that a correction is inevitable but prices will never return to those from 10 years ago.  I paid $4k for my CGC3.5 copy in 2009. It's the most I've ever paid for a SA book. There's know way I'd feel comfortable buying a copy now without liquidating much of much my collection to help subsidize it.

Very glad to have a copy...

I believe a correction is inevitable as well. I paid $500 for CGC .5 (Brittle Pages) on the boards a while back ago and I sold it last year for $5000. I still have a CGC 3.0, but I personally would not buy one now.

[fishbone]

I think all markets ebb and flow, move up and down - and then up again -- and then down again

But I do believe that AF15 is a rock-solid book looking from an investment perspective, as I do believe that it will move upwards overall over time.

I you are a flipper of comics for profit, you will always be at risk , but that's the nature of the business of flipping whatever market you are in

[jabats]

51 minutes ago, fishbone said:

I think all markets ebb and flow, move up and down - and then up again -- and then down again

But I do believe that AF15 is a rock-solid book looking from an investment perspective, as I do believe that it will move upwards overall over time.

I you are a flipper of comics for profit, you will always be at risk , but that's the nature of the business of flipping whatever market you are in

This.

it will correct sometime.

but in the long term, it will appreciate. It may also stay flat for a several year timeline however so flippers beware!

[Spiderturtle]

3 hours ago, jabats said:

This.

it will correct sometime.

but in the long term, it will appreciate. It may also stay flat for a several year timeline however so flippers beware!

+1

[rapid08]

Ask anyone who has one if they would sell their copy for lower than market value. I think you'll find your answer pretty easily.

[1950's war comics]

I could buy four  or five nice examples of my childhood coin grails that i could never afford for the price of a low grade AF15

1916D Mercury, 1909SVDB, 1916 SLQ, Bust$ , 20$ St Gaudens

(hmmmm...maybe i will buy a couple of my coin grails now,,,,,,)

Edited July 14, 2017 by 1950's war comics

[ComicConnoisseur]

15 hours ago, 1950's war comics said:

I could buy four  or five nice examples of my childhood coin grails that i could never afford for the price of a low grade AF15

1916D Mercury, 1909SVDB, 1916 SLQ, Bust$ , 20$ St Gaudens

(hmmmm...maybe i will buy a couple of my coin grails now,,,,,,)

All awesome coins,but not as desirable to most people compared to AF #15.

I think because the coin hobby is slowly dying. They make or made millions of coins these last 50 to 120 years. 

Everybody talks about how there are thousands of AF#15 around, but millions of those coin grails were made. I think comic book keys are a way better bet going forward than coin keys. I will even take sportscards rookie keys over coin keys. 

My uncles are week-end warrior coin dealers and told me coins are going the way of stamps. No interest in coins with many young people. The only time something exciting happened in coins the last 25 years was the 50 state quarter program, and gold coins got a bump when gold was hot hot,other than that comic book and sportscards are much more exciting every year with new super hero movies and new all-star rookie players.

Plus most people are using credit cards and their smart phones to pay for everything now.

Comic book keys rule. 

 

 

Edited July 14, 2017 by ComicConnoisseur

[peewee22]

39 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

All awesome coins,but not as desirable to most people compared to AF #15.

I think because the coin hobby is slowly dying. They make or made millions of coins these last 50 to 120 years. 

Everybody talks about how there are thousands of AF#15 around, but millions of those coin grails were made. I think comic book keys are a way better bet going forward than coin keys. I will even take sportscards rookie keys over coin keys. 

My uncles are week-end warrior coin dealers and told me coins are going the way of stamps. No interest in coins with many young people. The only time something exciting happened in coins the last 25 years was the 50 state quarter program, and gold coins got a bump when gold was hot hot,other than that comic book and sportscards are much more exciting every year with new super hero movies and new all-star rookie players.

Plus most people are using credit cards and their smart phones to pay for everything now.

Comic book keys rule. 

 

 

And I don't think a coin or stamp movie would go over that well. 

[1950's war comics]

3 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

All awesome coins,but not as desirable to most people compared to AF #15.

I think because the coin hobby is slowly dying. They make or made millions of coins these last 50 to 120 years. 

Everybody talks about how there are thousands of AF#15 around, but millions of those coin grails were made. I think comic book keys are a way better bet going forward than coin keys. I will even take sportscards rookie keys over coin keys. 

My uncles are week-end warrior coin dealers and told me coins are going the way of stamps. No interest in coins with many young people. The only time something exciting happened in coins the last 25 years was the 50 state quarter program, and gold coins got a bump when gold was hot hot,other than that comic book and sportscards are much more exciting every year with new super hero movies and new all-star rookie players.

Plus most people are using credit cards and their smart phones to pay for everything now.

Comic book keys rule. 

 

 

Yeah i think lots of coin dealers are moving into comics

Coins  = old hobby money

Comics = new hobby money

[1950's war comics]

I still think a CGC 2.0 AF15 makes a NGC AU50 1916 SLQ look very cheap, and there are only a very few of them in that grade of higher..............

[peewee22]

2 hours ago, CashMoney said:

No need to summarily dismiss coin and stamp collecting as passe in comparison to comic collecting.  People on this board might not recognize this yet (because they are too wrapped up in each tick of an AF15 sale to notice), but comic collecting is a middle-aged to old man's hobby.  My wife tells me this almost every time I mention comics, which is why she thinks they are a waste of money and refuses to allow me to spend any REAL money on comics.  The kid's these days don't care for comics, which is precisely why comic dealers are getting phased out of "Comic" Cons in favor of "garbage" for which us older folks don't care -- but for which legions of younger folks line up.  

Just like compact discs, VHS and Blackberries, comics will be replaced by digital media (all the publishers know this, and have accordingly placed their digital-technology strategy front and center).  And when that happens, history will revisit the price of AF15 and determine whether it constituted a sound "investment" in the long run (as many on this board truly believe) or just a speculative bubble -- like the tulips of Tulip Mania of the Dutch Golden Age, theGlobe.com's stock of the dot-com bubble or even 1984 Donruss baseball card factory sets (remember when they were all the rage?).  

Buy what you love, and you won't get burned if it goes to zero.  Whether that is comics, stamps or coins, different strokes for different folks....                        

Paper comics may be replaced by electronic media but the first appearance of major iconic comic characters originated on paper and that can never change. Superman, Batman, and Spiderman origins will always be in high demand. Each day, the back issues get one day older. Prices will fluctuate but pretty much will continue to increase in value, bubble or no bubble. 

[ComicConnoisseur]

4 minutes ago, peewee22 said:

Paper comics may be replaced by electronic media but the first appearance of major iconic comic characters originated on paper and that can never change. Superman, Batman, and Spiderman origins will always be in high demand. Each day, the back issues get one day older. Prices will fluctuate but pretty much will continue to increase in value, bubble or no bubble. 

100 percent agree. When it is all said and done we will find that Action Comics #1, Detective Comics #27 and AF #15 will go down as three of the most iconic keys in any hobby.

The three are as good as it gets as blue chips in any collectible hobby. The prices looked at now will seem like a bargain in five years.

[Philflound]

Digital comics have been out for many years now and they didn't have any affect on the paper market. I find it annoying trying to read on my computer as I have to zoom in and scroll to read a page. The only reason why I do it is I don't own the issue or don't want to handle my copy to risk damage.

There are no shortages of AF15. There are over 2700 copies graded so far and more get graded each week. There are easily probably over 10,000 copies, maybe 25,000 in existence in various grades. But if you figure the amount of Spiderman fans out there, I don't think they'll be a shortage of buyers if copies can be had for $5k or under. I think the low grade copies will flatline or possibly drop very slightly if there is a softening of the market on the low end. Higher end seem to always have buyers. I would not doubt many of these sales are with the high end dealers speculating and holding them to flip for the future.

[*Bronze age fan*]

17 hours ago, CashMoney said:

No need to summarily dismiss coin and stamp collecting as passe in comparison to comic collecting.  People on this board might not recognize this yet (because they are too wrapped up in each tick of an AF15 sale to notice), but comic collecting is a middle-aged to old man's hobby.  My wife tells me this almost every time I mention comics, which is why she thinks they are a waste of money and refuses to allow me to spend any REAL money on comics.  The kid's these days don't care for comics, which is precisely why comic dealers are getting phased out of "Comic" Cons in favor of "garbage" for which us older folks don't care -- but for which legions of younger folks line up.  

Just like compact discs, VHS and Blackberries, comics will be replaced by digital media (all the publishers know this, and have accordingly placed their digital-technology strategy front and center).  And when that happens, history will revisit the price of AF15 and determine whether it constituted a sound "investment" in the long run (as many on this board truly believe) or just a speculative bubble -- like the tulips of Tulip Mania of the Dutch Golden Age, theGlobe.com's stock of the dot-com bubble or even 1984 Donruss baseball card factory sets (remember when they were all the rage?).  

Buy what you love, and you won't get burned if it goes to zero.  Whether that is comics, stamps or coins, different strokes for different folks....                        

I go to comic book show once in a while, I see a lot of younger fans and kids who seem very interested in the hobby. To say it's an old man hobby is not true from what I am seeing. 

[bluechip]

The value of this book has risen and fallen numerous times over the years.  It's a contender for the book with the most volatility up and down, at least among those I've tracked.   Sold a copy some years ago when it was "down" which I regretted immediately and more so as the values went nuts.  It had slight trim and as I sold the book it occurred to me that if the buyers could get it labelled without a trim, he would make five figures over what he paid.  With the increase in prices just over the past few years, that would now be six figures.   

So of course I wish I'd held onto it.   I still have one copy that I won't sell unless in extreme emergency because it's my personal copy from when I was kid (still bought secondhand but it's how I fist read the story since this was before ubiquitous reprints).   I sold the extra copies I had because over the years I have just seen so very many of them, whereas I could easily count the number of times I've seen some or even most of the Golden Age keys, with specific copies of those keys turning up several times.   But I could not begin to estimate how many AF 15s I have seen over the years, and I love the book

Edited July 15, 2017 by bluechip

[Kevin76]

20 hours ago, CashMoney said:

No need to summarily dismiss coin and stamp collecting as passe in comparison to comic collecting.  People on this board might not recognize this yet (because they are too wrapped up in each tick of an AF15 sale to notice), but comic collecting is a middle-aged to old man's hobby.  My wife tells me this almost every time I mention comics, which is why she thinks they are a waste of money and refuses to allow me to spend any REAL money on comics.  The kid's these days don't care for comics, which is precisely why comic dealers are getting phased out of "Comic" Cons in favor of "garbage" for which us older folks don't care -- but for which legions of younger folks line up.  

Just like compact discs, VHS and Blackberries, comics will be replaced by digital media (all the publishers know this, and have accordingly placed their digital-technology strategy front and center).  And when that happens, history will revisit the price of AF15 and determine whether it constituted a sound "investment" in the long run (as many on this board truly believe) or just a speculative bubble -- like the tulips of Tulip Mania of the Dutch Golden Age, theGlobe.com's stock of the dot-com bubble or even 1984 Donruss baseball card factory sets (remember when they were all the rage?).  

Buy what you love, and you won't get burned if it goes to zero.  Whether that is comics, stamps or coins, different strokes for different folks....                        

Well we all know who wears the pants now.  

[Kevin76]

16 hours ago, Philflound said:

Digital comics have been out for many years now and they didn't have any affect on the paper market. I find it annoying trying to read on my computer as I have to zoom in and scroll to read a page. The only reason why I do it is I don't own the issue or don't want to handle my copy to risk damage.

There are no shortages of AF15. There are over 2700 copies graded so far and more get graded each week. There are easily probably over 10,000 copies, maybe 25,000 in existence in various grades. But if you figure the amount of Spiderman fans out there, I don't think they'll be a shortage of buyers if copies can be had for $5k or under. I think the low grade copies will flatline or possibly drop very slightly if there is a softening of the market on the low end. Higher end seem to always have buyers. I would not doubt many of these sales are with the high end dealers speculating and holding them to flip for the future.

Yes, plenty to go around on a weekly basis for everyone who wants one and has the cash...

Lower grades will flatline, just like Detective 27 and Action 1 have flat lined in lower grades...

 

[jabats]

18 minutes ago, Kevin76 said:

Yes, plenty to go around on a weekly basis for everyone who wants one and has the cash...

Lower grades will flatline, just like Detective 27 and Action 1 have flat lined in lower grades...

 

Tec 27 and Action 1 have flatlined in lower grades?