AF15 value - will the market 'crash'? 3 3

[VintageComics]

40 minutes ago, Spiderturtle said:

Good point but thats an example of a book for the hardcore comic collector.  I'm born in the mid 70's-batman, super man, and spiderman have always been recognized the masses.  I'm confident those 3 will remain the top 3 until once i kick the bucket

Are you saying that AF #15 is not for hardcore comic collectors?

I was born in 1970 and love BA and SA books and although I was more of an FF fan than a Spidey fan I can't deny Spidey's popularity.

But that still doesn't change the fact that things go in and out of favor. Nothing is constant.

[twmjr1]

On ‎7‎/‎15‎/‎2017 at 4:32 PM, jabats said:

Tec 27 and Action 1 have flatlined in lower grades?

If tripling in the past three years is "flatlining", yeah.

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, october said:

6 hours ago, VintageComics said:

Pep #22? Two books that nobody really took seriously and yet they are now super keys. Yes they are not as expensive as AF #15 but they came out of nowhere and catapulted forward into the realm of GA super keys.

 

Isn't Pep 22 worth more in basically every grade? 

+1

Grade for grade, I would most definitely take a Pep 22 over an AF 15 any day of the week, and it wouldn't even be a close race at all. 

[piper]

8 hours ago, lou_fine said:

+1

Grade for grade, I would most definitely take a Pep 22 over an AF 15 any day of the week, and it wouldn't even be a close race at all. 

It may be an expensive iconic book, but Pep 22 holds zero interest to me.

[VintageComics]

38 minutes ago, piper said:

8 hours ago, lou_fine said:

+1

Grade for grade, I would most definitely take a Pep 22 over an AF 15 any day of the week, and it wouldn't even be a close race at all. 

It may be an expensive iconic book, but Pep 22 holds zero interest to me.

@piper BTW, I definitely know you know your GA stuff. My comments were more directed at younger collectors who have no sense of perspective when it cam to the early market.

As far as interest, it's all personal preference, right?

But iPep #22 is a book that is truly rare in grade, it features one of the most iconic comic book characters of the last 70 years and that character is still ongoing in many forms of media.

He just doesn't wear a costume.

You can argue that Archie is a top 5 all time comic book character. His digests and comics still sell and people watch the various shows. My teenage daughter loves Riverdale.

[peewee22]

23 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

@piper BTW, I definitely know you know your GA stuff. My comments were more directed at younger collectors who have no sense of perspective when it cam to the early market.

As far as interest, it's all personal preference, right?

But iPep #22 is a book that is truly rare in grade, it features one of the most iconic comic book characters of the last 70 years and that character is still ongoing in many forms of media.

He just doesn't wear a costume.

You can argue that Archie is a top 5 all time comic book character. His digests and comics still sell and people watch the various shows. My teenage daughter loves Riverdale.

If MLJ would have known...then the cover would have been more iconic.

[piper]

30 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

@piper BTW, I definitely know you know your GA stuff. My comments were more directed at younger collectors who have no sense of perspective when it cam to the early market.

As far as interest, it's all personal preference, right?

But iPep #22 is a book that is truly rare in grade, it features one of the most iconic comic book characters of the last 70 years and that character is still ongoing in many forms of media.

He just doesn't wear a costume.

You can argue that Archie is a top 5 all time comic book character. His digests and comics still sell and people watch the various shows. My teenage daughter loves Riverdale.

[Jaydogrules]

The only thing "Riverdale" the show has in common with the comics is the names of the characters.  The show literally could have been called anything else, like "Dawson's Creek" for example, and it would have been the exact same thing.  It really is a shame that it has absolutely nothing to do with the source material.

-J.

[VintageComics]

1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

The only thing "Riverdale" the show has in common with the comics is the names of the characters.  The show literally could have been called anything else, like "Dawson's Creek" for example, and it would have been the exact same thing.  It really is a shame that it has absolutely nothing to do with the source material.

-J.

That's no different than the Marvel cinematic universe.

They've changed much if not most about it and yet it still is used as an argument for driving up comic prices.

[lou_fine]

Now that the much ballyhooed and long-awaited MCU version of the Spidey movie is finally out and dropping like a rock in terms of box receipts, is this going to have a bit of cooling effect on the recent accelerating prices for AF 15? 

Or is  a cooling effect always expected anyways, similar to all other movie hyped books after a movie comes out, even if it's a big hit. 

[paul747]

13 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Now that the much ballyhooed and long-awaited MCU version of the Spidey movie is finally out and dropping like a rock in terms of box receipts, is this going to have a bit of cooling effect on the recent accelerating prices for AF 15? 

Or is  a cooling effect always expected anyways, similar to all other movie hyped books after a movie comes out, even if it's a big hit. 

After 2 weeks the movie as almost at 500 million, is that really bad these days?

[lou_fine]

35 minutes ago, paul747 said:

49 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Now that the much ballyhooed and long-awaited MCU version of the Spidey movie is finally out and dropping like a rock in terms of box receipts, is this going to have a bit of cooling effect on the recent accelerating prices for AF 15? 

Or is  a cooling effect always expected anyways, similar to all other movie hyped books after a movie comes out, even if it's a big hit. 

After 2 weeks the movie as almost at 500 million, is that really bad these days?

I think you have to look beyond the one world wide box office number and take a look at the fact that the weekend box office receipts dropped by more than 61% which is one of the biggest drops ever in the MCU for a second weekend performance.  Based upon the standard multiplier which is often used, it looks like this latest version of Spidey is now forecasted to do no better than their previous versions on a domestic level.  I guess only time will tell. 

This would actually represent a drop in the number of movie tickets sold due to the inflation factor of ticket prices.  So, yes although the big number is good, I somehow believe the MCU studio bosses were hoping for something stronger and with better legs like Wonder Woman. 

Edited July 17, 2017 by lou_fine

[chrisco37]

5 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

I somehow believe the MCU studio bosses were hoping for something better and with better legs like Wonder Woman.

To be fair, Gal Gadot is way hotter than Tom Holland. 

[zhamlau]

When i take a look at weekend open versus like product, I actually think SM is kinda kicking butt. It Crushed wonder-womans opening weekend, and only feel behind GoTG2 for the summer open. Guardians was as hyped a sequel as possible and 1 was far and away so amazing it was gonna get carried to mythic status for its open. Also look at the layering of other tent poll properties around it.  It had the final part of the Apes Trilogy opening the week after it stealing Thunder and eyes. As for fall off, normal fall off is like 40-60%, hell GOTG2 had like with 5% of the same drop proportions as this summer. This movie is doing well foreign and when its said and done will probably be top 5 marvel of all time. It has rewatch-ability something other films in the genre don't. 

This movie is doing fine box wise.

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, zhamlau said:

It Crushed wonder-womans opening weekend,

That's my point exactly.......started out big, but has already fallen behind Wonder Woman's much leggier movie which came in at close to $60M to crush Spidey's box office revenues of only $45M and it only took until Weekend #2 for WW to pass Spidey. 

Edited July 17, 2017 by lou_fine

[Glassman10]

I have had my AF15 for almost fifty years. It was only this winter that I had it pressed and slabbed . It's a 5.0. When I found it, it had a street price of about $80.00. Every time a recession has hit in that fifty years, I thought of selling it, probably the first time for under 1K but I never did it. Recession after recession the book was indeed unloaded by people needing cash  and following that recession, it came back strong.

Now it's a curious thing because it isn't rare like action #1. I think there are about 800 copies above the grade 5.0. The big difference is that the number of people collecting comics since my little find in 67 has virtually exploded. Everyone is convinced that this latest 1990's book will be the next iron man 55 and maybe there's one of those books a decade. 

Experience tells me that the 2008 crash couldn't break it's value but as in the stock market, some people simply had to sell. The ones that still had the the capital to buy did really well. CGC has monetized comics to where they're reliable as buying VISA or MASTERCARD, maybe more so. Credit card companies are interesting. They don't lend money. They just shave the transaction. It may be the case that some books lose the fancy of short term memory loss  collectors but the keys appear to me to be indestructible. Suggesting that they may crash probably makes them even more valuable. 

[zhamlau]

33 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

1 hour ago, zhamlau said:

It Crushed wonder-womans opening weekend,

That's my point exactly.......started out big, but has already fallen behind Wonder Woman's much leggier movie which came in at close to $60M to crush Spidey's box office revenues of only $45M and it only took until Weekend #2 for WW to pass Spidey. 

I think however you're missing the point in this. It dropped 43.3 to Spider-man 61.3 yes, however that's due to a few reasons.

1. It opened lower, so the expected fall was going to be much less impactful (that a word?). It opened to 15% less revenue and fell by comparable amounts in that two week window.They are very on par when averaged out over 2 weeks. They made comparable amounts in that two week split, just one started higher than the other so when that 2nd week automatic drop occurred that number was bigger. But the net effect is the same.

2. This is a very small abstract sample size of 2 weeks when the real success of a film is based on 6 months out rentals and foreign market fleshed out and defined. Heck by that standard Spider-Man has earned 55% in 10 days of Wonder Womans total lifetime box office if you want to look at it that way. The real test comes when Spider-man is at 8 weeks out, than do compares.

3. Wonder Woman had ZERO competition in the month of June....Literally its biggest competitor for the month came out 2 weeks later....and it was the worst of the worst transformers film to date that NO one was asking for . It had zero competition for the month. The supposed tent polls it had to overcome were horrible reviewed/no hype remakes/sequels "The Mummy" and "Transformers: please make it stop" each getting in the high teens to mid 20% reviews on most Meta Sites. In comparison Spider-man in its 2nd weeks is running up against behemoth P.O.A. coming in at high 90% favorable on meta sites, a movie that would have crushed Wonder Woman had it been released the week following.  That's the major reason WW is even in the conversation at this point. Heck, if you look at the rest of July its the battleground month for Blockbusters with Valerian and Atomic Blonde coming on its heels bidding for the comic book movie market dollar. Each of these movies are in the 60-80% positive review range and each with big name stars and good buzz/anticipation behind them. Spider-man will survive in a much more competitive market and in the end after rental and full box office totals are counted should easily beat DCU's single best movie.

[peewee22]

1 hour ago, Glassman10 said:

I have had my AF15 for almost fifty years. It was only this winter that I had it pressed and slabbed . It's a 5.0. When I found it, it had a street price of about $80.00. Every time a recession has hit in that fifty years, I thought of selling it, probably the first time for under 1K but I never did it. Recession after recession the book was indeed unloaded by people needing cash  and following that recession, it came back strong.

Now it's a curious thing because it isn't rare like action #1. I think there are about 800 copies above the grade 5.0. The big difference is that the number of people collecting comics since my little find in 67 has virtually exploded. Everyone is convinced that this latest 1990's book will be the next iron man 55 and maybe there's one of those books a decade. 

Experience tells me that the 2008 crash couldn't break it's value but as in the stock market, some people simply had to sell. The ones that still had the the capital to buy did really well. CGC has monetized comics to where they're reliable as buying VISA or MASTERCARD, maybe more so. Credit card companies are interesting. They don't lend money. They just shave the transaction. It may be the case that some books lose the fancy of short term memory loss  collectors but the keys appear to me to be indestructible. Suggesting that they may crash probably makes them even more valuable. 

We applaud you for keeping that book 50 years. We would love for you to post it here.

My copy was purchased via Heritage Auctions and the original owner bought if off the stands. Unfortunately he died in an auto accident in 1974.  I am it's 2nd owner but somewhat have that "1 owner" feeling, too.

Edited July 17, 2017 by peewee22

[Jaydogrules]

2 hours ago, zhamlau said:

I think however you're missing the point in this. It dropped 43.3 to Spider-man 61.3 yes, however that's due to a few reasons.

1. It opened lower, so the expected fall was going to be much less impactful (that a word?). It opened to 15% less revenue and fell by comparable amounts in that two week window.They are very on par when averaged out over 2 weeks. They made comparable amounts in that two week split, just one started higher than the other so when that 2nd week automatic drop occurred that number was bigger. But the net effect is the same.

2. This is a very small abstract sample size of 2 weeks when the real success of a film is based on 6 months out rentals and foreign market fleshed out and defined. Heck by that standard Spider-Man has earned 55% in 10 days of Wonder Womans total lifetime box office if you want to look at it that way. The real test comes when Spider-man is at 8 weeks out, than do compares.

3. Wonder Woman had ZERO competition in the month of June....Literally its biggest competitor for the month came out 2 weeks later....and it was the worst of the worst transformers film to date that NO one was asking for . It had zero competition for the month. The supposed tent polls it had to overcome were horrible reviewed/no hype remakes/sequels "The Mummy" and "Transformers: please make it stop" each getting in the high teens to mid 20% reviews on most Meta Sites. In comparison Spider-man in its 2nd weeks is running up against behemoth P.O.A. coming in at high 90% favorable on meta sites, a movie that would have crushed Wonder Woman had it been released the week following.  That's the major reason WW is even in the conversation at this point. Heck, if you look at the rest of July its the battleground month for Blockbusters with Valerian and Atomic Blonde coming on its heels bidding for the comic book movie market dollar. Each of these movies are in the 60-80% positive review range and each with big name stars and good buzz/anticipation behind them. Spider-man will survive in a much more competitive market and in the end after rental and full box office totals are counted should easily beat DCU's single best movie.

This is a solid analysis.  

Also, Planet of the Apes really wasn't that good or exciting.  Both the trailer and title are misleading and the word on that is getting out.  I expect it to drop quite a bit in its second week.  It was a mistake for them to release that just one week after Spider-Man and I expect the studio is already regretting that decision.  

-J.

Edited July 17, 2017 by Jaydogrules

[Glassman10]

irrational as it may seem. life is short. get what you believe in.