AF15 value - will the market 'crash'? 3 3

[The-Collector]

9 hours ago, october said:

It's really not. The amount of 20-35 year olds interested in old comics is staggering. There are hundreds of back issue collectors on Instagram, and I have yet to meet one over 40 (other than a couple board members). I am an old man on there at 36.

Some random 16 year old collector DMed me today about a Skyman 2 that was on my account. A Skyman. From 1942. That a 16 year old wanted. 

Whats your account name?

Edited July 16, 2017 by The-Collector

[ComicConnoisseur]

14 hours ago, Spiderturtle said:

The ones that  mention crash and bubble-do they own one?  Af15 is for the masses while other cool books are more for hardcore comic collectors.  I believe the naysayers find it annoying  that its exploded so much.   

Agreed. These are the same people who have said for the last 10 years The Walking Dead is a fad. 

[namisgr]

16 hours ago, Spiderturtle said:

The ones that  mention crash and bubble-do they own one?  Af15 is for the masses while other cool books are more for hardcore comic collectors.  I believe the naysayers find it annoying  that its exploded so much.   

I haven't seen anything like that.  In the AF15 thread, many of the folks warning about the sustainability of the sudden large price appreciation are highly experienced collectors and dealers.  Ones who've seen prices ebb and flow.  Ones who've seen manias before.  Ones who've seen key comics go through declines in value.  And, ones who've owned key books including AF15 in the past, or own a copy now but don't feel the need to hype the book, but rather are willing to let it be valued where it may.  And I don't recall any speculating that the AF15 market would crash, which is far different from correcting.

As for me, I'm skeptical of the sustainability of the recent prices and am not annoyed by them.  Why would I or anyone else be annoyed?  That we're not capitalizing?  I bought a Hulk #181 for 25 cents when it was new, and sold it in a 9.6 slab 35 years later - does that annoy you?  Or does it annoy you that the money from selling my AF15 before this recent price ramp up went into the stock market, which has nearly doubled in value over the past eight years?  I seriously doubt it.  Besides, anyone who puts out significant coin for highly valued comic books wins some and loses some from a valuation stand point - ask Jay Parrino if ultra high value keys do nothing but increase in value.

Edited July 16, 2017 by namisgr

[Kevin76]

18 hours ago, Superman2006 said:

I believe that Kevin76 was using sarcasm...

[bluechip]

3 hours ago, namisgr said:

I haven't seen anything like that.  In the AF15 thread, many of the folks warning about the sustainability of the sudden large price appreciation are highly experienced collectors and dealers.  Ones who've seen prices ebb and flow.  Ones who've seen manias before.  Ones who've seen key comics go through declines in value.  And, ones who've owned key books including AF15 in the past, or own a copy now but don't feel the need to hype the book, but rather are willing to let it be valued where it may.  And I don't recall any speculating that the AF15 market would crash, which is far different from correcting.

As for me, I'm skeptical of the sustainability of the recent prices and am not annoyed by them.  Why would I or anyone else be annoyed?  That we're not capitalizing?  I bought a Hulk #181 for 25 cents when it was new, and sold it in a 9.6 slab 35 years later - does that annoy you?  Or does it annoy you that the money from selling my AF15 before this recent price ramp up went into the stock market, which has nearly doubled in value over the past eight years?  I seriously doubt it.  Besides, anyone who puts out significant coin for highly valued comic books wins some and loses some from a valuation stand point - ask Jay Parrino if ultra high value keys do nothing but increase in value.

Good points.   I would add that considering how many times some keys have corrected and then surged back again, with AF15 going through such ups and downs more than a few times, it doesn't do the hobby well to speak too loudly in ways which don't acknowledge that and which go on to say that all cautious people are being devious or envious.   It's not good for the hobby because for every person who believes that and later sees a price dip, it makes a dent in the reputation of comics as a reliably rising field of  collectibles.   Even if other items' values are rising, some will remember only that they were told a particular book was bulletproof and could bought for any amount any time with a certainty it could be sold for more at any time.  

 

And I say again I think WD is a solid IP and that AF15 is one of the best comic stories, ever.  I riled a GA auctioneer once saying it was perhaps my favorite book and he went on to complain it was plentiful so I said I didn't mean in terms of bulletproof rising value but in terms of creativity and cultural significance.   I have a copy still which I do not intend to sell unless it's a dire emergency, so I or my heirs would benefit just fine if it became just as valuable as Tec 27 or Action 1 and stayed that way.   

Edited July 16, 2017 by bluechip

[peewee22]

3 hours ago, namisgr said:

I haven't seen anything like that.  In the AF15 thread, many of the folks warning about the sustainability of the sudden large price appreciation are highly experienced collectors and dealers.  Ones who've seen prices ebb and flow.  Ones who've seen manias before.  Ones who've seen key comics go through declines in value.  And, ones who've owned key books including AF15 in the past, or own a copy now but don't feel the need to hype the book, but rather are willing to let it be valued where it may.  And I don't recall any speculating that the AF15 market would crash, which is far different from correcting.

As for me, I'm skeptical of the sustainability of the recent prices and am not annoyed by them.  Why would I or anyone else be annoyed?  That we're not capitalizing?  I bought a Hulk #181 for 25 cents when it was new, and sold it in a 9.6 slab 35 years later - does that annoy you?  Or does it annoy you that the money from selling my AF15 before this recent price ramp up went into the stock market, which has nearly doubled in value over the past eight years?  I seriously doubt it.  Besides, anyone who puts out significant coin for highly valued comic books wins some and loses some from a valuation stand point - ask Jay Parrino if ultra high value keys do nothing but increase in value.

It all boils down to what you buy, how much you buy, and when you buy it.

[peewee22]

14 hours ago, VintageComics said:

You'd be wrong.

There are many books throughout the hobby that were highly regarded and traded for regularly rising prices that have either tanked or flatlined.

Whiz Comics #1 (although it has rebounded with movie buzz, it was basically all but forgotten a few years ag - I know because I was collecting the title), Thunda #1 which was highly colllected because it was all Frank Frazetta, Red Raven #1 which was a holy grail for Timely collectors and even the highly revered Marvel Comics #1 (which seems to be rebounding as people come to their senses).

And if you'd asked ANYBODY when these books were highly sought after at their peaks, they'd all tell you that there is no way these books would drop in desirability.

Hindsight is 20/20. Never say never.

Roy, I think he was referring to the Big 3 (A1, T27, AF15), not all keys.

[namisgr]

2 hours ago, peewee22 said:

Roy, I think he was referring to the Big 3 (A1, T27, AF15), not all keys.

Roy's point stands.  I just checked in Overstreet Guide #22, and Marvel Comics #1 was the third most valuable book.  So it can happen to a 'big three' book, too.  AF15 was number three among Silver Age, behind Showcase #4 and Fantastic Four #1.

Many of you are too young to know the story of Jay Parrino's The Mint.  Over 15 years ago, Mr. Parrino paid record prices to acquire some of the most valuable comics in the hobby, expecting to flip them in coming years with continuance of the substantial price appreciation that took place before he made the purchases.  Only the rocketing price appreciation stopped, and on some books Jay was left holding the very expensive bag. 

I'm not saying this will happen to the AF #15 market.  Nobody knows what the future holds for the AF #15 market.  As a long-term investment, it may turn out to be a big winner.  It's well worth remembering, though, that as with any investment past performance doesn't guarantee future returns, and it's not impossible that we'll see AF #15 prices level off or even retract a bit from their recent stratospheric rise.

Edited July 16, 2017 by namisgr

[Kalel38]

2 hours ago, peewee22 said:

Roy, I think he was referring to the Big 3 (A1, T27, AF15), not all keys.

Bingo..

 

[peewee22]

32 minutes ago, namisgr said:

Roy's point stands.  I just checked in Overstreet Guide #22, and Marvel Comics #1 was the third most valuable book.  So it can happen to a 'big three' book, too.  AF15 was number three among Silver Age, behind Showcase #4 and Fantastic Four #1.

Many of you are too young to know the story of Jay Parrino's The Mint.  Over 15 years ago, Mr. Parrino paid record prices to acquire some of the most valuable comics in the hobby, expecting to flip them in coming years with continuance of the substantial price appreciation that took place before he made the purchases.  Only the rocketing price appreciation stopped, and Jay was left holding the very expensive bag. 

I'm not saying this will happen to the AF #15 market.  Nobody knows what the future holds for the AF #15 market.  As a long-term investment, it may turn out to be a big winner.  It's well worth remembering, though, that as with any investment past performance doesn't guarantee future returns, and it's not impossible that we'll see AF #15 prices level off or even retract a bit from their recent stratospheric rise.

Year in year out the Big 3 are A1, T27, and AF15. That's what the dude was referring to. I understand other books have temporarily taken front seat but these 3 books always come back on top. 

The lesson learned for all us from Parrino's comic experience is don't put all your eggs in one basket (not saying he did that). Diversify. Have a nice 401k, some comics, other investments, and a little cash (whatever cash is...I had a restaurant refuse cash a few days ago).

Edited July 16, 2017 by peewee22

[namisgr]

2 minutes ago, peewee22 said:

Year in year out the Big 3 are A1, T27, and AF15. That's what the dude was referring to. I understand other books have temporarily taken front seat but these 3 books always come back on top. 

No, years ago AF15 wasn't a big 3 book and Marvel Comics #1 was.  That the latter is no longer serves as a reminder that even one of the biggest comics in the hobby can lose investor interest once it reaches a certain price.  So while AF15 is a monster key and likely to do well as an investment going forward, it's possible it won't, a possibility that increases as the cost of the comic skyrockets.

Edited July 16, 2017 by namisgr

[peewee22]

1 minute ago, namisgr said:

No, years ago AF15 wasn't a big 3 book and Marvel Comics #1 was.  That the latter is no longer serves as a reminder that even one of the biggest comics in the hobby can lose investor interest once it reaches a certain price.

I know that. And one year Adv 247 was on top (in the early days the Legion book was #1). Go figure.

[ComicConnoisseur]

1 hour ago, peewee22 said:

Year in year out the Big 3 are A1, T27, and AF15. That's what the dude was referring to. I understand other books have temporarily taken front seat but these 3 books always come back on top. 

The lesson learned for all us from Parrino's comic experience is don't put all your eggs in one basket (not saying he did that). Diversify. Have a nice 401k, some comics, other investments, and a little cash (whatever cash is...I had a restaurant refuse cash a few days ago).

I think,someone can correct me if I am wrong that he sold before the comics movies boom took off. If he held on another 5 years he would have made a lot more profit.

Edited July 16, 2017 by ComicConnoisseur

[VintageComics]

3 hours ago, peewee22 said:

18 hours ago, VintageComics said:

You'd be wrong.

There are many books throughout the hobby that were highly regarded and traded for regularly rising prices that have either tanked or flatlined.

Whiz Comics #1 (although it has rebounded with movie buzz, it was basically all but forgotten a few years ag - I know because I was collecting the title), Thunda #1 which was highly colllected because it was all Frank Frazetta, Red Raven #1 which was a holy grail for Timely collectors and even the highly revered Marvel Comics #1 (which seems to be rebounding as people come to their senses).

And if you'd asked ANYBODY when these books were highly sought after at their peaks, they'd all tell you that there is no way these books would drop in desirability.

Hindsight is 20/20. Never say never.

Roy, I think he was referring to the Big 3 (A1, T27, AF15), not all keys.

When Whiz #1 and Thunda #1 were at the top of their game there was no AF #15, or it wasn't even in the top 5 as it was too young.

How about Archie d1 and Pep #22? Two books that nobody really took seriously and yet they are now super keys. Yes they are not as expensive as AF #15 but they came out of nowhere and catapulted forward into the realm of GA super keys.

My real point is that 'favorite' changes over time. It's not a constant.

Just 7 years ago when Action #1 CGC 6.0 sold for a record price of $317K everyone was raving that it will forever be the greatest comic of all time.

Que a few years later and people are discussing whether Detective #27 is a better book than Action #1, and some even believe it is (you'd think it was 1989 all over again when Tex #27 took over Action #1 in the Guide )

The only thing that is constant is change. At least in the current times we live in.

Edited July 16, 2017 by VintageComics

[october]

3 hours ago, VintageComics said:

Pep #22? Two books that nobody really took seriously and yet they are now super keys. Yes they are not as expensive as AF #15 but they came out of nowhere and catapulted forward into the realm of GA super keys.

 

Isn't Pep 22 worth more in basically every grade? 

[VintageComics]

41 minutes ago, october said:

4 hours ago, VintageComics said:

Pep #22? Two books that nobody really took seriously and yet they are now super keys. Yes they are not as expensive as AF #15 but they came out of nowhere and catapulted forward into the realm of GA super keys.

 

Isn't Pep 22 worth more in basically every grade? 

Yes, you're right. I wasn't sure but I was rushing and didn't have time to fact check it.

Grade for grade it's worth more than AF #15.

Pep #22 went from 'who would pay that much for an Archie comic?' to 'yup, it's a blue chip GA key' in the last 10 years.

The perception used to be that it was a cool rare book but nobody really wanted to pay any real money for it. I've recounted this story many times but I bought my 1st Pep #22 in WW Philadelphia after dealers balked at the price all weekend. I thought it was a steal.

I was right. It's considered a mega key now.

 

Edited July 17, 2017 by VintageComics

[VintageComics]

Another highly revered key book that has fallen off the radar for all but the most intense GA collectors?

Red Raven #1.

Do any AF #15 collectors even know what Red Raven #1 is? Highly doubtful.

 

[peewee22]

4 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

Another highly revered key book that has fallen off the radar for all but the most intense GA collectors?

Red Raven #1.

Do any AF #15 collectors even know what Red Raven #1 is? Highly doubtful.

 

Only one issue of this Timely book pubbed, right?

[piper]

12 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

Another highly revered key book that has fallen off the radar for all but the most intense GA collectors?

Red Raven #1.

Do any AF #15 collectors even know what Red Raven #1 is? Highly doubtful.

 

Yes I know about RR1. I have know interest in owning a copy. I'd rather have an Adv 40. 

[Spiderturtle]

10 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

Another highly revered key book that has fallen off the radar for all but the most intense GA collectors?

Red Raven #1.

Do any AF #15 collectors even know what Red Raven #1 is? Highly doubtful.

 

Good point but thats an example of a book for the hardcore comic collector.  I'm born in the mid 70's-batman, super man, and spiderman have always been recognized the masses.  I'm confident those 3 will remain the top 3 until once i kick the bucket