Those "plentiful" key issues... 1 1

[valiantman]

More times than I can count, I have seen it said on this board that books like Amazing Fantasy #15 are "plentiful" and "available every day of the week".  Generally, these comments are accompanied by complaints (or insinuation) that the price is too high for such a large supply.  The same is true of conversations about books like Incredible Hulk #181 and Amazing Spider-man #300.  

First of all, let's all agree that all of these books are "extremely common" compared to Action Comics #1 or Detective Comics #27.  If that's all that is intended by comments about how plentiful the other books are, well sure, point taken... but what does that have to do with price when demand is so much greater than supply?

Amazing Fantasy #15 is the first appearance of Spider-man... a character that has sold 100,000+ copies of at least one title, and often several titles, of monthly comics for 55 years. There are hundreds of millions of people who know Spider-man.  There are millions of people who can say "I collect comics, and I've got lots of Spider-man comics."  Literally millions.  Now, of those literally millions of people who collect Spider-man comics, past or present, there are literally fewer than 3,000 people who a own graded copy of his first appearance.  99% of Spider-man collectors cannot own a slab for Amazing Fantasy #15.  There aren't enough copies for 99-out-of-100 of Spider-man collectors.

Sure, there are ungraded copies, too... but the market for Amazing Fantasy #15 is dominated by graded copies, so we're not going to find a million ungraded copies anywhere to satisfy demand.  Imagine a scenario where there are 3 people who really want something that only has 1 copy.  What should be the price?  Would any price be "too high" if the 3 potential buyers are all legitimately bidding their max? Make it a million people who would happily own something that only has 3,000 copies.  Not 3-to-1.  More like 300-to-1.  The price should be whatever it is whenever you check the market... and we should not be surprised when the price keeps climbing.  Supply isn't meeting demand.  Switch it to a million people who would happily own something that only has 25,000 copies, like Hulk #181, graded and raw.  That's still 40-to-1.  39 out of 40 cannot own a copy, at any price.  Make it high grade, now 399 out of 400 cannot own a high grade copy, at any price.

"Plentiful" doesn't make sense when demand is 2-to-1.  What we're talking about is hundreds-to-1.  Every comic is "plentiful" compared to original art... By that logic, every copy of Action Comics #1 is priced "too high" compared to a one-of-a-kind original art page from Action Comics #800.  What's that?  Action Comics #1 means more than an original art page from Action Comics #800?  Yes.  Yes it does... and the supply of Amazing Fantasy #15, Incredible Hulk #181, and every other key issue that's 30+ years old will never be enough if there are millions of collectors.  Amazing Fantasy #15 is only "plentiful" compared to an imaginary tiny demand.  Real demand far exceeds the supplies of AF #15, Hulk #181, ASM #300, and just about every other book that has been called "plentiful" on this board.

Edited August 14, 2017 by valiantman

[lizards2]

Like with many of these books, when I see dealers and collectors that have multiple copies, I'm skeptical as to whether there is actually a shortage of supply.  More likely, flippers flipping to flippers, hoping they don't get caught with the eventual hot potato.

[valiantman]

Just now, lizards2 said:

Like with many of these books, when I see dealers and collectors that have multiple copies, I'm skeptical as to whether there is actually a shortage of supply.  More likely, flippers flipping to flippers, hoping they don't get caught with the eventual hot potato.

Just like real estate, right?  Realtors with multiple properties for sale... just flipping to other realtors.  No one really lives in expensive houses, do they?

[lizards2]

3 minutes ago, valiantman said:

5 minutes ago, lizards2 said:

Like with many of these books, when I see dealers and collectors that have multiple copies, I'm skeptical as to whether there is actually a shortage of supply.  More likely, flippers flipping to flippers, hoping they don't get caught with the eventual hot potato.

Just like real estate, right?  Realtors with multiple properties for sale... just flipping to other realtors.  No one really lives in expensive houses, do they?

A lot of folks that eventually go bankrupt or default.

[valiantman]

Just now, lizards2 said:

A lot of folks that eventually go bankrupt or default.

Right, but the houses don't go away.  They go back to realtors and they get sold again.  If all copies of Amazing Fantasy #15 were taken off the market because they found "permanent homes", then the first available copy would have no limit to the amount of profit the dealer could get.  Dealers won't ever let each other monopolize a book like Amazing Fantasy #15, or Hulk #181, or ASM #300... but they control the market.  If you find a seller offering a discount on a CGC slabbed Amazing Fantasy #15, they won't be in business long.  Few can afford to play Amazing Fantasy #15 hot potato, but you can be sure that those who do aren't losing money year after year.  CGC slabs of Amazing Fantasy #15 are like great location properties that never run down.  They're like classic cars that never get any new mileage.  The price isn't going to fall hard until Spider-man falls hard.

[Aweandlorder]

And boom just like that we created another ratio metric system with comics

interesting observation VMan ??

[lizards2]

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

  The price isn't going to fall hard until Spider-man falls hard.

Right - but the price is currently artificially inflated to where actual fans, like me, can't afford to complete the run, and I'm contemplating getting rid of the rest of the run, since the collection will never be complete.  If all you have is a bunch of flippers/dealers with multiple copies of key issues, you're eventually going to kill the golden goose.

[Gatsby77]

But books like IH 181, ASM 129, even Daredevil 1 _are_ ridiculously common.

And -- this is a separate point -- I'm not sure any of them are destined to continue to rise in value.

Hell - I only started collecting in 1989 but that means I've been in this hobby long enough to see ASM 129 precipitously decline in value twice. Maybe not in Overstreet's, but in real market terms when the character was cold.

And anyone who doubts the market fluctuation of ASM 300 needs only look at the thread on this here boards that asked a year and a half ago whether someone would prefer ASM 300, Batman Adventures 12 or New Mutants 98. Check the relative values of those three books and the conventional wisdom then (i.e., page 1) vs. now.

What I see is what Lizards pointed out -- value being driven primarily by momentum shifts among dealers/flippers, etc.

As new movies are announced the momentum (and market value) goes to the latest speculative property. And then cools when the movie (or TV show) passes.

Also "common" is a relative term, but I see eBay + auction houses as a good proxy.

If I can find more than 3-4 copies of a book for sale at any given time in less than 10 minutes, it's common.

Might be expensive, but common nonetheless.

Example of common? ASM 1, AF 15, Hulk 181.

Not so common? Marvel $.30 or $.35 variants; DC Silver Age Romance titles, etc.

TL:DR -- Don't conflate "expensive" with "uncommon" -- they are two separate things.

[Knightsofold]

2 hours ago, valiantman said:

More times than I can count, I have seen it said on this board that books like Amazing Fantasy #15 are "plentiful" and "available every day of the week".  Generally, these comments are accompanied by complaints (or insinuation) that the price is too high for such a large supply.  The same is true of conversations about books like Incredible Hulk #181 and Amazing Spider-man #300.  

First of all, let's all agree that all of these books are "extremely common" compared to Action Comics #1 or Detective Comics #27.  If that's all that is intended by comments about how plentiful the other books are, well sure, point taken... but what does that have to do with price when demand is so much greater than supply?

Amazing Fantasy #15 is the first appearance of Spider-man... a character that has sold 100,000+ copies of at least one title, and often several titles, of monthly comics for 55 years. There are hundreds of millions of people who know Spider-man.  There are millions of people who can say "I collect comics, and I've got lots of Spider-man comics."  Literally millions.  Now, of those literally millions of people who collect Spider-man comics, past or present, there are literally fewer than 3,000 people who a own graded copy of his first appearance.  99% of Spider-man collectors cannot own a slab for Amazing Fantasy #15.  There aren't enough copies for 99-out-of-100 of Spider-man collectors.

Sure, there are ungraded copies, too... but the market for Amazing Fantasy #15 is dominated by graded copies, so we're not going to find a million ungraded copies anywhere to satisfy demand.  Imagine a scenario where there are 3 people who really want something that only has 1 copy.  What should be the price?  Would any price be "too high" if the 3 potential buyers are all legitimately bidding their max? Make it a million people who would happily own something that only has 3,000 copies.  Not 3-to-1.  More like 300-to-1.  The price should be whatever it is whenever you check the market... and we should not be surprised when the price keeps climbing.  Supply isn't meeting demand.  Switch it to a million people who would happily own something that only has 25,000 copies, like Hulk #181, graded and raw.  That's still 40-to-1.  39 out of 40 cannot own a copy, at any price.  Make it high grade, now 399 out of 400 cannot own a high grade copy, at any price.

"Plentiful" doesn't make sense when demand is 2-to-1.  What we're talking about is hundreds-to-1.  Every comic is "plentiful" compared to original art... By that logic, every copy of Action Comics #1 is priced "too high" compared to a one-of-a-kind original art page from Action Comics #800.  What's that?  Action Comics #1 means more than an original art page from Action Comics #800?  Yes.  Yes it does... and the supply of Amazing Fantasy #15, Incredible Hulk #181, and every other key issue that's 30+ years old will never be enough if there are millions of collectors.  Amazing Fantasy #15 is only "plentiful" compared to an imaginary tiny demand.  Real demand far exceeds the supplies of AF #15, Hulk #181, ASM #300, and just about every other book that has been called "plentiful" on this board.

I like the discussion!  I find it fun to see both sides and learn from it.  

Can you explain the perceived difference in value between these 2 hypothetical books?

Book #1.   Any book you'd say are "extremely common" and with  so many copies available you can wait for someone to undercut the others and get it for the price you want.

vs.

Book #2.  Any book that shows up x5 times a year and typically only in featured heritage/cc/clink auctions.  Usually bidding wars. 

If both books have recorded sales over the past 10 years, of a 10-15% increase wouldn't book #2 be a safer bet for long term value?

If comparing to real estate I imagine book #1 is any house in a great great indemand neighborhoods.

And book #2 is any lakefront house in great great neighborhoods.  Much less of those houses.

Maybe it's a incorrect but perceived value difference. 

 

[valiantman]

28 minutes ago, Knightsofold said:

I like the discussion!  I find it fun to see both sides and learn from it.  

Can you explain the perceived difference in value between these 2 hypothetical books?

Book #1.   Any book you'd say are "extremely common" and with  so many copies available you can wait for someone to undercut the others and get it for the price you want.

vs.

Book #2.  Any book that shows up x5 times a year and typically only in featured heritage/cc/clink auctions.  Usually bidding wars. 

If both books have recorded sales over the past 10 years, of a 10-15% increase wouldn't book #2 be a safer bet for long term value?

If comparing to real estate I imagine book #1 is any house in a great great indemand neighborhoods.

And book #2 is any lakefront house in great great neighborhoods.  Much less of those houses.

Maybe it's a incorrect but perceived value difference. 

 

Interesting question... 

If I understand your scenario, Book #1 is high demand high supply and Book #2 is high demand low supply.  Given those two scenarios it's hard to see how Book #2 isn't the best bet.

What I think I'm saying, though is this:

Book #1 is high supply much higher demand (Silver/Bronze Age ultra-key that costs $5,000+ to obtain)

Book #2 is low supply and high demand (Golden Age key that costs $50,000+ to obtain)

Anytime demand significantly beats supply (both Book #1 and Book #2), I think "plentiful" supply becomes the wrong focal point for the discussion.

[Lazyboy]

35 minutes ago, Knightsofold said:

I like the discussion!  I find it fun to see both sides and learn from it.  

Can you explain the perceived difference in value between these 2 hypothetical books?

Book #1.   Any book you'd say are "extremely common" and with  so many copies available you can wait for someone to undercut the others and get it for the price you want.

vs.

Book #2.  Any book that shows up x5 times a year and typically only in featured heritage/cc/clink auctions.  Usually bidding wars. 

If both books have recorded sales over the past 10 years, of a 10-15% increase wouldn't book #2 be a safer bet for long term value?

But the majority of copies of Book #2 may be in the hands of old (60+) collectors. That would make it much more risky in the long term. What does the market look like when their demand is removed and their supply becomes available?

There is a difference between high demand and high demand relative to low available supply.

35 minutes ago, Knightsofold said:

If comparing to real estate I imagine book #1 is any house in a great great indemand neighborhoods.

And book #2 is any lakefront house in great great neighborhoods.  Much less of those houses.

Maybe it's a incorrect but perceived value difference.

A comparison to real estate is completely invalid due to the enormous difference in visibility of total supply.

[justafan]

TLDR: possible bubble. Too much liquidity in copies due to max demand price not yet met.  Need to know what the max level of demand price per grade.

I feel there's a bubble in AF15 and some comics like ASM 129.  It's no coincidence prices tend to double year over year whenever a movie comes out.  However, anything that goes up that quickly worries me.  I suspect that a majority of the price and appreciation of these books are not only from flippers but also from owners/hoarders who have netted substantial equity in them and are

1. looking to capitalize on the prices since they seem to be so liquid (dealers pay nearly full FMV with thin margins)

and

2. looking to upgrade using the sale of their undercopies to bankroll their upgrade. Many of the undercopies have appreciated at a faster rate and have come to sale due to the demand

There are many collectors and even dealers that have "invested"/hoarded lower to mid-grade copies to ride the current wave.  There are also those collectors of means that can't afford a HG copy but can afford a nice looking slabbed mid-grade copy but also want a lower grade reader copy to hold and read.  There are several spidey fans on here that probably hold more than one copy.

So I think the reason AF15's are so liquid (which is why dealers will often pay close to FMV for them and you constantly see them for sale) is because we haven't reached the max demand price per grade.  Is that due to the constant churn of flippers, upgraders, and new-to-market money coming in every day that just want at least 1 copy right now and willing to pay whatever they can afford for it?  Every owner or seller knows that there's a market for their copy at a current price they are willing to sell.  What we haven't reached yet are prices that no one is willing to pay but we may be getting their quickly.  So in the current run up of prices, these are prices that many can still afford and are willing to pay, hence the liquidity.  What we need to know is the max level of demand price per grade.  What is the most anyone would be willing to pay and could afford for a copy in a specific grade?  When the number of people willing to pay a max price at a certain grade = or drops below the number of copies available for sale in that grade, that's where you meet the max market price which we don't seem to have met yet but who knows.  It would be interesting to do a poll and find out what the highest price anyone would be willing to pay for a copy in any grade vs a copy in a specific grade.

[Knightsofold]

Quote

What we haven't reached yet are prices that no one is willing to pay

 

There are 39+ AF#15s on ebay right now, doesn't that mean we've reached prices no one is willing to pay?

[valiantman]

13 minutes ago, Knightsofold said:

 

There are 39+ AF#15s on ebay right now, doesn't that mean we've reached prices no one is willing to pay?

Are any of those near the GPA average, or are they GPA + X%.  Because if they're GPA + X%, then we only know the X% is too high.

[Knightsofold]

2 hours ago, Lazyboy said:

But the majority of copies of Book #2 may be in the hands of old (60+) collectors. That would make it much more risky in the long term. What does the market look like when their demand is removed and their supply becomes available?

It's likely the same 60+ year old collectors still holding book #2s have many high grade book #1s as well.  Being a collector at age 30 in 1980 means you could easily stockpile ASM #129, IH#181 and even NM AF#15's at $450 a pop.

Without a way to verify what age groups are holding which books, I don't see the relevance. 

I've read over and over that by mid to late 1964 people started hoarding books.

[Knightsofold]

13 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Are any of those near the GPA average, or are they GPA + X%.  Because if they're GPA + X%, then we only know the X% is too high.

I agree, but doesn't that mean supply is greater than the demand?  If not, how many unsold copies would we need to see on ebay to indicate supply is greater than demand?

[valiantman]

1 minute ago, Knightsofold said:

I agree, but doesn't that mean supply is greater than the demand?  If not, how many unsold copies would we need to see on ebay to indicate supply is greater than demand?

By that scenario, if you set a copy of Action Comics #1 to $10,000,000 and no one buys it, then supply is great than demand.  I don't think that's how it works.

[kav]

1 minute ago, valiantman said:

By that scenario, if you set a copy of Action Comics #1 to $10,000,000 and no one buys it, then supply is great than demand.  I don't think that's how it works.

[Knightsofold]

29 minutes ago, valiantman said:

By that scenario, if you set a copy of Action Comics #1 to $10,000,000 and no one buys it, then supply is great than demand.  I don't think that's how it works.

If there were 1,000 available copies of AF#15 I think it would mean something... 

Are you saying availability on ebay gives no indication of supply and demand?   

How does it work?

[AnthonyTheAbyss]

I blame Ebay's introduction of B.I.N...it skews the supply & demand numbers.