Those "plentiful" key issues... 1 1

[kav]

16 minutes ago, Ken Aldred said:

Actually, got me interested in checking.

AF 15 was published same month she died, August 1962.

[lou_fine]

5 hours ago, kav said:

AF15s are like diamonds, common, but valuable.

Yes, diamonds are valuable, but unlike AF 15's, they are so common that they have actually dropped down significantly in value over the past few decades. 

I remembered being in an jewelry store with my wife and sister-in-law who's so much more into diamonds.  She was interested in one that the owner told her was worth $240K which my sister-in-law insisted would be a good investment.  I kept asking the owner how much this particular diamond would have sold for back in the 80's and she kept trying to avoid the question.  She finally relented and said that it would have sold for something much closer to $500K back then, but that diamonds was always a good "emotional" investment.  Needless to say, my ill-informed sister-in-law was totally , but it was good to see that the owner was honest since I already knew the severe downward trend for diamond valuations. 

[kav]

2 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Yes, diamonds are valuable, but unlike AF 15's, they are so common that they have actually dropped down significantly in value over the past few decades. 

I remembered being in an jewelry store with my wife and sister-in-law who's so much more into diamonds.  She was interested in one that the owner told her was worth $240K which my sister-in-law insisted would be a good investment.  I kept asking the owner how much this particular diamond would have sold for back in the 80's and she kept trying to avoid the question.  She finally relented and said that it would have sold for something much closer to $500K back then, but that diamonds was always a good "emotional" investment.  Needless to say, my ill-informed sister-in-law was totally , but it was good to see that the owner was honest since I already knew the severe downward trend for diamond valuations. 

I first learned about the non value of diamonds when I was in a pawn shop and a lady came in to sell her one carat engagement ring and he offered her $50.  Wouldn't go a penny higher.  

[lou_fine]

6 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:

8 hours ago, Hudson said:

This is a well thought out and well written post.

They usually are.

+1

Of course they are since he's very highly compensated to write this type of financial investment analysis. 

Especially in terms of his last paragraph whereby he probably just pulled up one of his old investment analysis reports and simply did a Find and Replace with AF 15 for whatever investment vehicle he was writing about at the time. 

[the authority]

Great topic and general discussion. Thanks for sharing guys 

[ComicConnoisseur]

Guys demand is always much more a factor than rarity. Seriously it is. lol.

Also AF #15 is not just a key it is one of the holy grail of comics! So throw out all this it is common stuff talk. It is not a factor here when we are talking about a Holy Grail of comics. This isn't a flavor of the month book do to movie/TV hype like FF #45.

Holy Grails of all hobbies are immune to downward slumps for the most part compared to their respective generic counterparts.

An example is let us look at Magic: The Gathering and basketball card markets. Both markets have ups and down but their two holy grails are immune to downwardmarket fluctuations.

So in conclusion throw out all this logic talk about rarity once a comic book like AF #15 has been deemed a Holy Grail by its respective collectors.

 

Edited August 17, 2017 by ComicConnoisseur

[1950's war comics]

@ComicConnoisseuri hope those are cards from your personal collection !!!!

Edited August 17, 2017 by 1950's war comics

[valiantman]

16 hours ago, kav said:

I first learned about the non value of diamonds when I was in a pawn shop and a lady came in to sell her one carat engagement ring and he offered her $50.  Wouldn't go a penny higher.  

That's not an exaggeration.  The DeBeers monopoly only works if DeBeers is the exclusive supplier.  That's where they came up with "a diamond is forever"... to imply you can't sell it... it's too sentimental.  They don't want you to know you won't get anything for it.  Diamonds have no value to the world outside of jewelry (unlike platinum, gold, silver, etc., which have value no matter what.)  Yes, they use diamonds for drilling... which means they don't pay anything for them at the industrial level and they don't need shiny clear ones.  A one carat engagement ring won't even dig a ditch, unless someone will do it for you for $50. 

[valiantman]

Off-topic with the diamond discussions, but since I'm the original poster I guess it's allowed.

The diamond industry is scared of moissanite.  It's named after the guy who discovered it... Carbon and Silicon, microscopic, from a meteorite a hundreds years ago.  Moissanite doesn't exist on Earth in "jewelry size" so it's made in a lab.  (The horror!)  It really is Carbon (like a diamond) and Silicon (similar to Carbon chemically, heavier)... and the result of "jewelry size" is this: 

 

Needless to say, DeBeers can't monopolize this market... so they just pretend "fake diamonds" are all like CZ.  Buy a real diamond!  It's 10 times as expensive!  

(I borrowed the photo from another website, so ignore the sales pitch comments.  I did buy a 3rd generation moissanite recently and my wife loves it.  It's not a diamond, she knows it, it's a moissanite... and no conflicts in foreign countries were secretly in the mix either... blood diamonds need not apply.)

Edited August 17, 2017 by valiantman

[valiantman]

Back on topic... let's flip the -script a little and ask this question...

If Marvel had the ability to purposefully make the "Most Important Spider-man Comic Ever" and it was assured that everyone would agree that it was the "Most Important Spider-Man Comic Ever (MISCE)"... no argument MISCE is the best... then what would we expect the prices to be if Marvel only made 10,000 of them?

AF #15 is the MISCE, there may only be 10,000 remaining... plus 55 additional years have passed... so under this line of thinking, what would we expect those prices to be?

[bronze_rules]

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

Back on topic... let's flip the ---------script a little and ask this question...

If Marvel had the ability to purposefully make the "Most Important Spider-man Comic Ever" and it was assured that everyone would agree that it was the "Most Important Spider-Man Comic Ever (MISCE)"... no argument MISCE is the best... then what would we expect the prices to be if Marvel only made 10,000 of them?

AF #15 is the MISCE, there may only be 10,000 remaining... plus 55 additional years have passed... so under this line of thinking, what would we expect those prices to be?

Interesting thought. My first thought is that manufactured scarcity or importance doesn't retain value over the long run.

At the time, I'm sure a lot of people probably felt that death of Superman or Spawn 1, were arguably close to MI"CE titles, and although they were plentiful, neither grew exponentially in value at all.

In the case of scarcity, just think of variant covers. I'm sure there are plenty of examples of scarce Spawn 1 type MI"CE titles out there, that aren't worth much.

I think that many extremely coveted holy grails and valuables can languish as worthless for years, until for whatever reason, there is some catalyst or series of favorable catalysts that catapults their perceived worth.

While the ones that are instantly perceived as extremely valuable and sought after, often flatline or decay over time. I'm not speaking for all cases, but hopefully make sense. Just thinking out loud.

 

As a side note, I remember somewhere around 2000, my girlfriend offered to buy me a copy of AF#15 in a glass case in a comic shop in Monrovia, CA. I'd say it was about a VG+ or so, for $1000. Man I kick myself for declining.

Edited August 17, 2017 by bronze_rules

[Hudson]

Back on topic.

AF15 is simply awesome!  Not only do a "boat load" of collectors desire to own this book, I would hazard to guess that many of them would like to own multiple copies (thus adding further to "demand".

Is AF15 common?  I don't know.  Compared to what?  Compared to AC1, heck yeah it is "common".  Compared to many modern books, it would be considered "rare".  Compared to other silver age books made the same month; I have no clue.  It really does not matter.  The real question seems to be "FMV".

FMV is what a willing buyer is willing to pay a willing seller and what a wiling seller is willing to accept from a willing buyer, for the item in question.

With this in mind, I would contend that whether or not AF15 is "common" is not relevant.  What is relevant, is that current supply seems to outweigh current demand at the current price point.  I probably just lost a lot of "likes" with that sentence, but I believe it to be the truth, as seen by perhaps one of the best examples of a "free market"; eBay. 

There are currently 33 complete copies of AF15 on eBay that any willing buyer can purchase.  These  vary in condition and price, however, this is a general breakdown.

3 Copies for $100K or more

3 Copies for $50K - $99,999.99

7 Copies for $25K - $49,999.99

12 Copies for $15K - $24,999.99

8 Copies for $7,900 - $14,999.99

That is 33 complete copies readily available to anyone that wants them. 

There are also 3 coverless copies that can be had for under $5K

If these prices were FMV (in other words where supply meets demand), then the number of available copies would be zero.

In conclusion, AF15 is awesome and highly desirable. but in the free market world of eBay, the supply of AF15(s) clearly outweighs the current demand.

This is NOT to say there are NOT nearly countless people who would like to own a copy of AF15 IF the price were lower, however, at the price being what it is, those people do not seem to REALLY be in the market.

I say this with all respect to AF15, Spider-Man, and collectors everywhere, so please do not stone me.

[kav]

7 minutes ago, Hudson said:

Back on topic.

AF15 is simply awesome!  Not only do a "boat load" of collectors desire to own this book, I would hazard to guess that many of them would like to own multiple copies (thus adding further to "demand".

Is AF15 common?  I don't know.  Compared to what?  Compared to AC1, heck yeah it is "common".  Compared to many modern books, it would be considered "rare".  Compared to other silver age books made the same month; I have no clue.  It really does not matter.  The real question seems to be "FMV".

FMV is what a willing buyer is willing to pay a willing seller and what a wiling seller is willing to accept from a willing buyer, for the item in question.

With this in mind, I would contend that whether or not AF15 is "common" is not relevant.  What is relevant, is that current supply seems to outweigh current demand at the current price point.  I probably just lost a lot of "likes" with that sentence, but I believe it to be the truth, as seen by perhaps one of the best examples of a "free market"; eBay. 

There are currently 33 complete copies of AF15 on eBay that any willing buyer can purchase.  These  vary in condition and price, however, this is a general breakdown.

3 Copies for $100K or more

3 Copies for $50K - $99,999.99

7 Copies for $25K - $49,999.99

12 Copies for $15K - $24,999.99

8 Copies for $7,900 - $14,999.99

That is 33 complete copies readily available to anyone that wants them. 

There are also 3 coverless copies that can be had for under $5K

If these prices were FMV (in other words where supply meets demand), then the number of available copies would be zero.

In conclusion, AF15 is awesome and highly desirable. but in the free market world of eBay, the supply of AF15(s) clearly outweighs the current demand.

This is NOT to say there are NOT nearly countless people who would like to own a copy of AF15 IF the price were lower, however, at the price being what it is, those people do not seem to REALLY be in the market.

I say this with all respect to AF15, Spider-Man, and collectors everywhere, so please do not stone me.

Looking at sold auctions a cgc 5.0 is worth $28,000 a pgx 9.6, $25,000

[revat]

7 hours ago, valiantman said:

On ‎8‎/‎16‎/‎2017 at 4:24 PM, kav said:

I first learned about the non value of diamonds when I was in a pawn shop and a lady came in to sell her one carat engagement ring and he offered her $50.  Wouldn't go a penny higher.  

That's not an exaggeration.  The DeBeers monopoly only works if DeBeers is the exclusive supplier.  That's where they came up with "a diamond is forever"... to imply you can't sell it... it's too sentimental.  They don't want you to know you won't get anything for it.  Diamonds have no value to the world outside of jewelry (unlike platinum, gold, silver, etc., which have value no matter what.)  Yes, they use diamonds for drilling... which means they don't pay anything for them at the industrial level and they don't need shiny clear ones.  A one carat engagement ring won't even dig a ditch, unless someone will do it for you for $50. 

Back off topic, my mom's cousin was one of the main scientists working on the research to help create synthetic diamonds.  For about a year and half, he had to have bodyguards during the most serious part of his research,  because he was afraid of the 'diamond' people.

[Hudson]

9 minutes ago, kav said:

Looking at sold auctions a cgc 5.0 is worth $28,000 a pgx 9.6, $25,000

Back off topic.

Does anyone know why the "grading company" (and I use the term loosely) quoted above can be mentioned here, but when I copied and pasted something the other day, that had some other initials in it, my post was "hidden"?

It took me awhile to figure out the problem, as I had not really even noticed those "letters" in what I had copied and pasted.  When I reread everything I had copied and pasted, I noticed the "offending" matter and corrected the issue.

I am in no way complaining about the policy not to mention "that company", I just thought it strange that the one quoted above is apparently okay.

Again, this is the CGC board and I believe they have EVERY right to set WHATEVER rules and restrictions they deem appropriate.

Then again if the company mentioned above is so far off on their grading that a 9.6 AF15 can only garner $25K, then perhaps that answers my question...

[kav]

Just now, Hudson said:

Back off topic.

Does anyone know why the "grading company" (and I use the term loosely) quoted above can be mentioned here, but when I copied and pasted something the other day, that had some other initials in it, my post was "hidden"?

It took me awhile to figure out the problem, as I had not really even noticed those "letters" in what I had copied and pasted.  When I reread everything I had copied and pasted, I noticed the "offending" matter and corrected the issue.

I am in no way complaining about the policy not to mention "that company", I just thought it strange that the one quoted above is apparently okay.

Again, this is the CGC board and I believe they have EVERY right to set WHATEVER rules and restrictions they deem appropriate.

Then again if the company mentioned above is so far off on their grading that a 9.6 AF15 can only garner $25K, then perhaps that answers my question...

The reason is PGX is a complete joke and no kind of competitor for CGC.

[lou_fine]

33 minutes ago, Hudson said:

AF15 is simply awesome!  Not only do a "boat load" of collectors desire to own this book, I would hazard to guess that many of them would like to own multiple copies (thus adding further to "demand".

Most definitely they do, but at nowhere near the price point that it currently sells at or possibly anywhere even close to it.   

[1950's war comics]

I am a lifelong collector who never cared to own an AF15, sorry wouldn't want one now more than ever , would rather have a nice 2018 mustang GT and some change.........

also i believe any collectible ready available on eBay on any given day is common

[grayzr]

On 8/14/2017 at 5:45 PM, Knightsofold said:

 

There are 39+ AF#15s on ebay right now, doesn't that mean we've reached prices no one is willing to pay?

Auction wise not sure but BIN is a different story.

Most of the BIN listings of any book on eBay are somewhat over FMV. Some are laughably over priced some slightly. If they weren't someone would buy it.

All it takes to break that current over priced BIN barrier is some news relating to said book.

With AF 15 at this point I don't know what else could raise the price further. He's part of the MCU now.

I think the current comic market insanity is based on a lot of factors but if I had to narrow it down to 3 main reasons in order of importance it would be.

1.Economy is doing great, lots of money flying around.

2.Movie/TV Hype (leads my third point)

3. Many obscure characters that might get their big break.

 

[Gatsby77]

Again, y'all -- common and expensive are two very different things.

AF 15s are common by early (pre-1966) Silver Age standards.

Sure - not as common as Daredevil 1, but readily available if you have the cash.

There are books out there from the same time period, that would take even connected dealers two weeks or more to locate in decent shape even if price were not an issue (say...offering 4x current FMV). 

That's the difference.