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JOKER: THE MOVIE produced by Martin Scorsese (TBD)
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Every few years, the American public is stricken with a full-blown moral panic, and we’re in the midst of one now over Todd Phillips’ “Joker.” The paranoia that the movie will drive a lurking army of incels and troubled young men to fits of violence is not just pure fantasy. It also reflects a refusal to look at the real problems of our society — including untreated mental illness, endemic poverty and drug addiction.

 

This isn’t the first moral panic in America. In the 1950s, comic books were widely seen as dangerous to young minds, and psychiatrist Dr. Fredric Wertham argued that comic books would drive children to lives of addiction and delinquency. The public was so captivated by Wertham’s subsequently debunked proclamations that the Comics Code Authority was created to censor comic books and enforce moral standards. It remained in operation until 2011.

 

At various times, Dungeons & Dragons, Harry Potter, heavy metal, video games, hip-hop and Magic the Gathering cards have been blamed for everything from Satan worship to youth suicide to school shootings. And now, in 2019, we have “Joker.”

 

“Joker” follows Arthur Fleck (Joaquin Phoenix) as he descends into a fugue of mental illness and poverty and is repeatedly kicked by society. Back in September, “Joker”received an eight-minute standing ovation and the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival, and Joaquin Phoenix was broadly praised for his performance. Yet backlash against the film was swift and vociferous. Despite the fact that hardly anyone had actually seen the film, some frantic early commentators began calling it “dangerous” and critic Robbie Collin, writing in The Telegraph, went so far as to wonder if perhaps the film “should be locked in a strongbox then dropped in the ocean and never released.” (He ultimately gave it a squeamish four out of five stars).

 

Publications including Refinery29 and Salon published stories about whether it was “dangerous.” A Refinery29 piece called it a “poisonous story for a fraught time” and worried about the effect of “a story that empathizes with a violent sociopath” and whether it would become “a dangerous manifesto for radical and lonely white men.” A Salon story wondered if the film “will appeal to incels” and was explicitly “aimed at the violently embittered.” A Vox piece wondered if it “could be validation for violent glory seekers.”

 

In more conservative quarters, Baptist Press declared that the film “glorifies violence and could spark copycats, even if it does raise important questions about mental illness and society’s downtrodden.”

 

The implication was clear: “Joker”could cause incels — who had apparently just been waiting around for a movie to identify with — to do… something? Go on a violent rampage, perhaps. There is a common misconception that the 2012 Aurora, Colorado, movie theater shooter was dressed as Joker. (He was not)

 

In 2019, a movie that few people had even seen was deemed “dangerous” for its depiction of a man’s descent into madness and violence. Yet a real social crisis on the streets of Gotham — and indeed around the country — is simply treated as just another problem to throw money at. Why is a film that deals with tough subjects deemed dangerous while people are let down by the system every day?

 

Edited by Bosco685
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Joker finished its first week in domestic play with another $8.3 million on Thursday, bringing its seven-day cume up to $137.725 million. It’s also a 14 % drop from Wednesday and gives the DC Films flick a 1.431x weekend-to-week multiplier. Thus far, it has been leggier than Venom, Logan Deadpool and Deadpool 2. Heck, it’s almost as leggy, thus far, as A Star Is Born (1.49x its $44.2 million debut last October). On one hand, it’s possible that these strong weekday legs could lead to a sharper-than-hoped second-weekend drop, since more of the demand is being filled over the Mon-Thurs frame. That said, the film’s day-to-day holds have been just a bit better than expected every single day.

 

I prewrite these using best guestimates from reasonable comparisons, and I’ve been slightly lowballing the daily grosses in those first drafts every single day. To be fair, Addams Family (which isn’t half-bad if you’re being dragged along by the kids) and Gemini Man (which, critical disapproval aside, still has Will Smith a star vehicle action hero mode) could provide real competition, as both films could open anywhere from $20 million to $30 million this weekend. But a hold at least -55.1%, which would be close to the 56-57% drops for Deadpool, Venom and Logan, would be around $43.19 million for the weekend, which is just higher (sans inflation) than Gravity’s $43.188 million second weekend gross in October of 2013.

 

Now that was a 22% dip from a $55 million launch, but I digress. A sharper fall, say, 61% (think Spider-Man: Homecoming or Ant-Man and the Wasp), would still get it to $37.1 million and above the second-weekend grosses of The Martian ($37 million from a $55 million debut in 2015) and Venom ($35 million from an $80 million launch in 2018). For what it’s worth, a second weekend of at least $43.6 million (-54.66%) would be above the second weekend grosses of both Deadpool 2 ($43.4 million in 2018 from a $125.5 million launch) and Suicide Squad ($43.5 million in 2016 from a $133 million debut). Being optimistic, a $43.275 million second-weekend gross would give Joker around $181 million in ten days of domestic play.

 

Edited by Bosco685
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Even with the strength of Addams Family and a potentially solid debut by Gemini Man, the top film of the weekend is widely expected to again be Warner Bros. and DC’s Joker, which bowed to an October record $96.2 million last weekend.

 

At this stage, it’s increasingly likely that Addams will upset Gemini Man as the top opener this weekend. Ang Lee’s sci-fi actioner is being met with weaker-than-expected reviews, softening expectations despite Will Smith’s resurgence to box office prowess in Aladdin earlier this year and hype around this film’s visual effects. In its arsenal, though, is an IMAX release which should help boost the average ticket price.

 

The secondary element in declining expectations for Gemini Man is Joker‘s early success among adult moviegoers. Although critics were somewhat divided ahead of release, the film’s 90 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes — and early trends of strong daily holds — indicate the film might not be as front-loaded as most in the industry expected. A second weekend north of $40 million appears likely, which will probably be enough to secure the top position again.

 

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