Are the Boomers cashing out? 6 6

[1Cool]

13 hours ago, OrangeCrush said:

I don't know if its true or not, but the assertion is pretty logical. At some point you have to expect a particular generation of collectors to cash out, at least a certain percentage of them, and now would seem like a pretty valid dropping off point for a lot of the boomers given that the average age of baby boomers now is roughly 65 years of age. That said, I don't think it would have a serious impact on silver age or golden age comics one way or the other since demand continues to be very strong for those comics. 

I think it comes down to what percent decides to sell off at once.  There does seem to be a steady stream of collections popping up but the numbers are not too much for the current market.  now if 20 big collections came available at once we may see some impact to prices.

[Aweandlorder]

I don't think that much has changed other than awareness. Sellers are still selling, buyers/buying, and those innocent bystanders who revealed their uncle's lost collection are now wiser and either sell them online or get consumed offline so quick that neither you or I even hear about it

[kidcolt]

Comics are still selling for ridiculous prices. If the boomers are selling off then the market is still not flooded to the point that the supply exceeds demand. I would love to see comic prices drop and for there to be a sudden flooding of the market. I collect to read and on a low budget so nothing would make me happier then to see the comic market drop. Maybe then I could own some cool older books with out breaking the bank.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Comic books are actually one of the few hobbies left that is thriving.

Most old antiques and collectibles markets are down 20 to 50 percent.

The superhero movies gave the comics industry a second life that many other hobbies never get.

To have Disney marketing Marvel added years more to comic book collecting as a top desired hobby.

 

 

 

[sd2416]

What other stuff you got for sale on there?  Id be interested in it as well. 

17 hours ago, Aweandlorder said:

We live in great times for buyers/sellers is all I have to say 

I spend money buying collections and rare books both online and off

and I do the same for selling. 

It used to be that I couldnt flip a long box of drek to save my life. Now with fb/IG/craigslist and sometimes eBay... I get up to $100 for said box... and usually on the same day of listing.

Buying comics.. what can I say... just soooooo many venues to buy... endless! The hunger is real!

comics, tpb, slabs, its not even about movies or your casual pump n dumper market anymore... people just buy buy buy

I had a guy reach out to me through IG last night... 10:30pm to be exact... he saw a random signed Perez slab I had and asked me if i'd be willing to deliver it to him downtown Manhattan ... at first i thought... naaah, but then I said, shoot , why not..

30 min later, hello $200

Im about to go drop off a long box in Brooklyn now for the same amount...

Im just so overwhelmed by this sometimes

17 hours ago, deadleg said:

What's your Instagram if you don't mind me asking?

 

[the blob]

8 hours ago, 1Cool said:

I think it comes down to what percent decides to sell off at once.  There does seem to be a steady stream of collections popping up but the numbers are not too much for the current market.  now if 20 big collections came available at once we may see some impact to prices.

Baby boomers have been selling their collections since (in no particular order) they started buying their first cars, got sent off to vietnam, went away to college, started snorting coke, bough their first, second, and third homes, had their kids, got AIDS, cancer, lost their health insurance, got laid off during various recessions, sent kids to college, had their first, second, and third bankruptcies and divorces........the idea that there are large numbers of old men who have been sitting on collections for 40, 50 years, waiting to sell them right now, when the temptation to do so has presented itself many times before, is silly. sure, there are a few, and there are 50 year olds with collections, 52 year olds, 47 year olds, and at least according to these boards, a huge number of 44-46 year olds, also sitting on collections.

 

Edited March 14, 2018 by the blob

[RockMyAmadeus]

This is anecdotal, but the vast majority of the great collectors of coins kept them until their deaths, at which point they were disbursed by their heirs. The greatest collection of all time, the Eliasberg collection, wasn't completely sold off until 21 years after his death in in 1976.

I don't see comic collectors being much different. 

People rarely devote their lives to building something only to see it dismantled before their death, even if they're the ones doing the dismantling.

Edited March 14, 2018 by RockMyAmadeus

[VintageComics]

On 8/26/2017 at 8:45 AM, Gatsby77 said:

All it would take for a massive 50%+ downward price correction for 98 percent of the material out there is for every book on eBay to go to true auction.

Not necessarily.

What's happened is that because prices continue to rise, nobody wants to leave anything on the table and so everyone is pricing at next year's prices.

It's become difficult buying anywhere for the reason (for dealers).

I do agree that there is a lot of material, and I do agree that it's priced aggressively but I don't agree that there would be a 50% downward price correction if you were to auction everything off.  Auctions seem to still hold their own more or less, regardless of what you're selling.

There is a huge influx of buyers of all sorts and so for now, demand seems to be outstripping supply.

[Buzzetta]

1 hour ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

This is anecdotal, but the vast majority of the great collectors of coins kept them until their deaths, at which point they were disbursed by their heirs. The greatest collection of all time, the Eliasberg collection, wasn't completely sold off until 21 years after his death in in 1976.

I don't see comic collectors being much different. 

People rarely devote their lives to building something only to see it dismantled before their death, even if they're the ones doing the dismantling.

I want to believe this but I am skeptical.  The only problem I have with that comparison is that coins take up a lot less space than a comic collection.  Some families do not want to be tripping over let alone finding space for multiple boxes of comics.

Edited March 14, 2018 by Buzzetta

[namisgr]

If the value of your comic book collection would make a life-changing difference, then you're very likely to sell it.  This becomes an especially important choice nearing or in retirement.  Of course baby boomers are selling off their collections.  Heck, even devoted boomer collectors like Jon Berk, Magik Woo, Doctor Fate and Doug Schmell sold off their singular collections.

 

Edited March 14, 2018 by namisgr

[Gatsby77]

1 hour ago, VintageComics said:

Not necessarily.

What's happened is that because prices continue to rise, nobody wants to leave anything on the table and so everyone is pricing at next year's prices.

It's become difficult buying anywhere for the reason (for dealers).

I do agree that there is a lot of material, and I do agree that it's priced aggressively but I don't agree that there would be a 50% downward price correction if you were to auction everything off.  Auctions seem to still hold their own more or less, regardless of what you're selling.

There is a huge influx of buyers of all sorts and so for now, demand seems to be outstripping supply.

To what you say - I've seen far less quality material available this past year -- not just via eBay but via Comiclink and Heritage as well (mostly due to the lack of new pedigrees -- the Don/Maggie Simpson collection was the last new one I can recall that alligned with my collecting goals).

But I really don't believe the market could absorb it if all the books listed on eBay went to true auction:

Why? The stats from eBay this evening:

• CGC Bronze Age: 1,713 total comics at auction vs. 26,712 Buy-It-Nows. 
• CGC Silver Age: 1,116 total comics at auction vs. 18,301 Buy-It-Nows.
• CGC Copper Age: 1,227 total comics at auction vs. 12,811 Buy-It-Nows.

Sure - folks may be pricing at next year's prices, but it still makes for a stagnant, illiquid market in the meantime when one of the biggest platforms for comics out there is nearly 95% off limits (i.e., artifically overpriced from market-clearing rates).

[FSF]

I think it's obvious that Boomers are selling, some while they're still alive and others when their heirs disburse the assets.  Either way, I don't think that is really all that big of an issue. The question really comes down to whether current, and more importantly, future generations will continue to pick up the slack.  This is very debatable.  Personally, I'm a firm believer that collectors who collect generally migrate to what they did in their youth in an effort to buy back their childhoods.  Because of that philosophy, I do believe that comics have a shelf life that will eventually kill it and kill it for good.  I don't see that happening for at lease a decade or more but I do firmly believe that day is coming.  When I consider the low print runs for the past couple of decades, and the fact that most of that was even bought by adults, I don't see an influx of "I collected when I was a kid and am finding the hobby again" crowd, which I consider to be the most indispensable element of the collectors market.  

[lizards2]

5 hours ago, namisgr said:

If the value of your comic book collection would make a life-changing difference, then you're very likely to sell it.  This becomes an especially important choice nearing or in retirement.  Of course baby boomers are selling off their collections.  Heck, even devoted boomer collectors like Jon Berk, Magik Woo, Doctor Fate and Doug Schmell sold off their singular collections.

 

Collecting comics is something I've done for 45 years, so I kind of view it as mentally unhealthy to sell it all. 

Sell off the bulk excess - yes, I think that will be good, but I can't imagine being totally out of the hobby. 

I think a key part of lengthy retirement (and life) is to be fully engaged in hobbies, charitable work, volunteering, socializing and whatever else you do to keep life vital and interesting. 

I wake up every day with more on my "to do" list than I can ever accomplish.

Edited March 15, 2018 by lizards2

[FC169]

OP is right. Maybe its the boomers, maybe not, but most all the SA run books under NM are on decline, and have been for some years now. 

GA is not infallible either. Non horror/bondage/superhero books are either stagnant or declining; especially under NM.  

Why? Dunno for sure. Can certainly speculate.  Boomers? Graded comics and the rise of the 9.8? Older folks dying off leaving few left to care about Donald Duck or DickTracy? I would surmise its a combination of quite a few factors ??‍♂️

 

Interesting topic ??

Edited March 15, 2018 by FC169

[Mercury Man]

2 hours ago, FSF said:

The question really comes down to whether current, and more importantly, future generations will continue to pick up the slack.  This is very debatable.

Also important.   It always about the 'next ones', that keep the hobbies going.   If you run out of dance partners, you will not be able to sell at what you perceive the FMV to be. 

We were talking at the LCS today about the current state of the hobby, and how the kids are just not there.  We talked about Baseball cards.  Do you think in 25 years Millenials will be plunking down $500, $1000, $10,000 for Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays cards?   My nephews, in their early 20's, don't even watch Baseball.   Look at vintage model train or stamp collectors (per the NY Times the average age of a stamp collector, is 65 to 70 years old).....those hobbies have shrunk dramatically over the last 20 years. 

My LCS owner felt like comics were going back to a 1990's type crash soon.  The one thing that comics has going for it right now is the movies, but again, it's not the kids coming in.  It's more speculators buying up variants, first appearances and hot Silver/Bronze Age books, only to flip.  Look at the price of Black Panther comics right now.  You could pick up Bronze Age BP #1 by Kirby's in NM+,  for about $30 ten years ago.  I just saw a 9.8 hit over $900 on ebay.    Once the movie dies down, things will settle down (maybe with the exception of FF 52).    Maybe the foreign markets will pick up the slack.  Strange days indeed. 

 

[VintageComics]

2 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

But I really don't believe the market could absorb it if all the books listed on eBay went to true auction:

Over the last 14 years on this chat forum I didn't think the market could absorb each new collection as it came to market and it continues to do so.

Back in the late 2000's and early teens, we had debates about this as several SA Pedigrees all showed up at the same time (Sucha news, Twin Cities and one other that escapes me) and they all got not only absorbed but set record prices.

Ditto the Billy Wright, Jon Berk, Fantuccio and I don't know how many other collections.

I don't make such bold statements anymore as everything that comes to market continues to get absorbed, year after year.

[WolverineX]

3 hours ago, Mercury Man said:

Also important.   It always about the 'next ones', that keep the hobbies going.   If you run out of dance partners, you will not be able to sell at what you perceive the FMV to be. 

We were talking at the LCS today about the current state of the hobby, and how the kids are just not there.  We talked about Baseball cards.  Do you think in 25 years Millenials will be plunking down $500, $1000, $10,000 for Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays cards?   My nephews, in their early 20's, don't even watch Baseball.   Look at vintage model train or stamp collectors (per the NY Times the average age of a stamp collector, is 65 to 70 years old).....those hobbies have shrunk dramatically over the last 20 years. 

My LCS owner felt like comics were going back to a 1990's type crash soon.  The one thing that comics has going for it right now is the movies, but again, it's not the kids coming in.  It's more speculators buying up variants, first appearances and hot Silver/Bronze Age books, only to flip.  Look at the price of Black Panther comics right now.  You could pick up Bronze Age BP #1 by Kirby's in NM+,  for about $30 ten years ago.  I just saw a 9.8 hit over $900 on ebay.    Once the movie dies down, things will settle down (maybe with the exception of FF 52).    Maybe the foreign markets will pick up the slack.  Strange days indeed. 

 

I agree. Everytime I go into a comic shop, I only see an above 30 crowd.  I rarely see younger kids because they are all online playing with their cell phones.... This will be a problem in the future and comics will shrink unless, we can garner ore interest in the younger crew. 

[Von Cichlid]

6 hours ago, FSF said:

I think it's obvious that Boomers are selling, some while they're still alive and others when their heirs disburse the assets.  Either way, I don't think that is really all that big of an issue. The question really comes down to whether current, and more importantly, future generations will continue to pick up the slack.  This is very debatable.  Personally, I'm a firm believer that collectors who collect generally migrate to what they did in their youth in an effort to buy back their childhoods.  Because of that philosophy, I do believe that comics have a shelf life that will eventually kill it and kill it for good.  I don't see that happening for at lease a decade or more but I do firmly believe that day is coming.  When I consider the low print runs for the past couple of decades, and the fact that most of that was even bought by adults, I don't see an influx of "I collected when I was a kid and am finding the hobby again" crowd, which I consider to be the most indispensable element of the collectors market.  

I believe that 1991, just before the X-Men 1 / X- Force-1 / Death of Superman era was the last time that actual readers outnumbered the speculators and flippers.  I can fully attest to the fact that me reentering the hobby a couple of years ago is an effort to recapture some of my childhood.  While I have learned an immense amount and my tastes have broadened far beyond what I had when I was 11-12 yrs old, I can safely say that if I had not been bitten by the bug at that time I would not be here today.

With that being said, I will probably check out at age 75 or so, hopefully, so that keeps me and others from my era buying books for another 35 years or so.  

 

 "Because of that philosophy, I do believe that comics have a shelf life that will eventually kill it and kill it for good.  I don't see that happening for at lease a decade or more..."

You are right in that the day is coming, but the length of time before it happens is more like three decades as opposed to one.

Edited March 15, 2018 by Von Cichlid

[FSF]

Von, I totally agree with you that the numbers do seem to line up more toward a 3+ decade scenario.  But there are several factors that make that situation a best case scenario and why it could happen sooner.  One, you're only looking at the tail end of the support. People who got bitten by the bug in the 1950s to early 80s will all pass on before you and your group, so the group that supports it will be shrinking in noticeable numbers along the way.  That will snowball to some extent onto itself because people will see the decline and decide not to spend any more money on what they see as a declining asset and ultimately a lost cause.  Also, I foresee in the next 10-15 years a SIGNIFICANT economic shock that could be a significant start to the death knell, and not just for comics but coins and cards and various other collectibles.

I do believe there might be a place for iconic items like a 1933 $20 gold coin, 1804 $1, 1913 V-Nickel, 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle, AF15, Action 1, Detective 27 but much of the rest of the hobby will be virtually worthless, including the Hulk 181, ASM 129, etc. which there's just way too much of.  It's been happening for years with most issues of SA and BA with the abandonment of run collectors.  Does anyone serious believe there's going to be significant numbers of collectors picking up runs again of various titles???  Even in stamps, which is pretty much dead as dead can get, the top items are still in strong demand.  Coins are not quite as dead but most of them pretty much are with only very rare or very eye appealing pieces remaining in demand.  Cards have heavily migrated to rookies only collecting and comics have become more and more of a first appearance market for the pre modern stuff.

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

8 hours ago, Buzzetta said:

I want to believe this but I am skeptical.  The only problem I have with that comparison is that coins take up a lot less space than a comic collection.  Some families do not want to be tripping over let alone finding space for multiple boxes of comics.

For hard core collectors, space is never an issue. They just buy more of it. The Eliasberg collection held several thousand coins, many of which are the finest known. 

LaVere Redfield had over 400,000 silver dollars in his basement.

For comparison's sake, you can fit approximately 300 long boxes in a 10x10 space, stacked 7 high. That's about 75.000 bagged and boarded comics.