Are the Boomers cashing out? 6 6

[Aweandlorder]

1 hour ago, october said:

I'm guessing you don't own or sell too many golden age books. That end of the market has been absolutely insane over the past two years. Anything quality has probably increased an average of two to four times over the past 12 months. It's the hottest I have EVER seen the golden age market. It's borderline stupid.

That is exactly one of my talking points; not too many collectors nowadays can afford nor access these books, so they "hype" and market and cater to more accessible books. which leads to a (not borderline, but plain) stupid market

[Von Cichlid]

8 minutes ago, Aweandlorder said:

Yes that is correct IH181 was 50$ in 88 and 250$ the next year. I remember it went drastically higher within a year or 2 just didn't remember by how much. 

 

Wow, look at the prices on those McFarlane Hulks.  My LCS has all of those VF+ for at or below $10.00, not including the 340 of course.

[Aweandlorder]

2 minutes ago, Von Cichlid said:

Wow, look at the prices on those McFarlane Hulks.  My LCS has all of those VF+ for at or below $10.00, not including the 340 of course.

Also consider that 18.00 for a book was BIG NEWS back then... If a book was over $10 back then, youve already missed the boat... And there were PLENTY of those around

[lizards2]

3 hours ago, Lazyboy said:

4 hours ago, Aweandlorder said:

Im at work now, so dont have access to my older guide, but refresh my memory, how much was an IH181 going for in 1989? Im pretty sure it was close if not higher to a thousand? Again, not sure, but I clearly remember it jumping in price from 1987/88 by a few hundreds.

Mid-late 1988, Mile High was advertising them for $35 (guaranteed Fine).

Mid 1990 Crestohl/Ross were advertising Mint for $300 (F/VF $150).

Don't know if it's germaine to the discussion, but two of the worst dealers...., and most likely to involve a return...., 

[Diamonddave]

19 hours ago, october said:

I'm guessing you don't own or sell too many golden age books. That end of the market has been absolutely insane over the past two years. Anything quality has probably increased an average of two to four times over the past 12 months. It's the hottest I have EVER seen the golden age market. It's borderline stupid.

Im not sure if this point has been raised but could it be collectors or even speculators are burned out on the next "key" media related book? Chasing the next first app of a villain who'll be around for 1 movie gets to be tiring. Or chasing books of characters rumored to be getting a movie treatment. And for the collector, with a few exceptions, the book doesn't hold its value. 

Personally, I think the market is saturated with Silver that has been priced out of most buyers budgets. Go to a big Con and youll see how many Hulk 1's, Af15's, BB 28 compared to a GA key or classic cover GA? So they are shifting focus, Silver hero books to Golden horror, romance, war, teen humor etc, books you don't necessarily see on every wall in every booth. 

[lizards2]

1 hour ago, Diamonddave said:

20 hours ago, october said:

I'm guessing you don't own or sell too many golden age books. That end of the market has been absolutely insane over the past two years. Anything quality has probably increased an average of two to four times over the past 12 months. It's the hottest I have EVER seen the golden age market. It's borderline stupid.

Im not sure if this point has been raised but could it be collectors or even speculators are burned out on the next "key" media related book? Chasing the next first app of a villain who'll be around for 1 movie gets to be tiring. Or chasing books of characters rumored to be getting a movie treatment. And for the collector, with a few exceptions, the book doesn't hold its value. 

Personally, I think the market is saturated with Silver that has been priced out of most buyers budgets. Go to a big Con and youll see how many Hulk 1's, Af15's, BB 28 compared to a GA key or classic cover GA? So they are shifting focus, Silver hero books to Golden horror, romance, war, teen humor etc, books you don't necessarily see on every wall in every booth. 

I don't know if it is a shift but a price resistance - flippers, flipping to flippers, who are flipping to flippers.  The collector is left out.  They can go ahead and choke on those books until the price declines to something reasonable - what that is, I don't know.

[Aweandlorder]

1 hour ago, lizards2 said:

I don't know if it is a shift but a price resistance - flippers, flipping to flippers, who are flipping to flippers.  The collector is left out.  They can go ahead and choke on those books until the price declines to something reasonable - what that is, I don't know.

Kinda like the real estate market in NY for the past 20+ years. Sellers selling to sellers and those young couples who really need a home are left out while prices soar every year 

[whomerjay]

2 hours ago, Diamonddave said:

Im not sure if this point has been raised but could it be collectors or even speculators are burned out on the next "key" media related book? Chasing the next first app of a villain who'll be around for 1 movie gets to be tiring. Or chasing books of characters rumored to be getting a movie treatment. And for the collector, with a few exceptions, the book doesn't hold its value. 

Personally, I think the market is saturated with Silver that has been priced out of most buyers budgets. Go to a big Con and youll see how many Hulk 1's, Af15's, BB 28 compared to a GA key or classic cover GA? So they are shifting focus, Silver hero books to Golden horror, romance, war, teen humor etc, books you don't necessarily see on every wall in every booth. 

This.  

Whether or not one is priced out, there is no challenge in finding SA, and hasn't been since the early days of eBay. 

[ComicConnoisseur]

On 3/15/2018 at 10:30 PM, Von Cichlid said:

Wow, look at the prices on those McFarlane Hulks.  My LCS has all of those VF+ for at or below $10.00, not including the 340 of course.

That shows also back than a hot artist was lot more important than like a first appearance by a character now is. The first appearance by in large now are considered the go to keys over hot artist.

Also I can't remember that last time in the last 10 years that a modern artist was so hot that their comics jumped in price like those McFarlanes did way back then.

Edited March 17, 2018 by ComicConnoisseur

[alexgross.com]

4 hours ago, Diamonddave said:

 

Personally, I think the market is saturated with Silver that has been priced out of most buyers budgets. Go to a big Con and youll see how many Hulk 1's, Af15's, BB 28 compared to a GA key or classic cover GA? So they are shifting focus, Silver hero books to Golden horror, romance, war, teen humor etc, books you don't necessarily see on every wall in every booth. 

the market only seems saturated with silver because so many dealers are asking too much at cons. when silver age keys go to auction at CL, CC, heritage, and on ebay real auctions, they are selling for all time highs. at least most of them are, other than af15 right now. JIM#83 7.0  sold yesterday at hakes auction for about double gpa since 2 years ago. we have a very healthy market for silver age keys, when they are offered at auction. of course golden age keys circulate in much lower numbers, but that doesn't mean the demand for silver isn't there. if, as you say, they were priced out of most budgets, then wouldn't they be selling for less, instead of more than before??

[Mercury Man]

3 hours ago, lizards2 said:

I don't know if it is a shift but a price resistance - flippers, flipping to flippers, who are flipping to flippers. 

Pffft...I hate Flipping flippers, flipping to flipping flippers

[Senormac]

30 minutes ago, www.alexgross.com said:

4 hours ago, Diamonddave said:

 

Personally, I think the market is saturated with Silver that has been priced out of most buyers budgets. Go to a big Con and youll see how many Hulk 1's, Af15's, BB 28 compared to a GA key or classic cover GA? So they are shifting focus, Silver hero books to Golden horror, romance, war, teen humor etc, books you don't necessarily see on every wall in every booth. 

the market only seems saturated with silver because so many dealers are asking too much at cons. when silver age keys go to auction at CL, CC, heritage, and on ebay real auctions, they are selling for all time highs. at least most of them are, other than af15 right now. JIM#83 7.0  sold yesterday at hakes auction for about double gpa since 2 years ago. we have a very healthy market for silver age keys, when they are offered at auction. of course golden age keys circulate in much lower numbers, but that doesn't mean the demand for silver isn't there. if, as you say, they were priced out of most budgets, then wouldn't they be selling for less, instead of more than before??

It's cuz of the tax cuts    

[ComicConnoisseur]

15 hours ago, Aweandlorder said:

Kinda like the real estate market in NY for the past 20+ years. Sellers selling to sellers and those young couples who really need a home are left out while prices soar every year 

That is going on big time in Canada,especially the Vancouver market. I have relatives complaining to me how their children will never be able to afford a home like they did at the same age.

[Aweandlorder]

14 hours ago, www.alexgross.com said:

the market only seems saturated with silver because so many dealers are asking too much at cons. when silver age keys go to auction at CL, CC, heritage, and on ebay real auctions, they are selling for all time highs. at least most of them are, other than af15 right now. JIM#83 7.0  sold yesterday at hakes auction for about double gpa since 2 years ago. we have a very healthy market for silver age keys, when they are offered at auction. of course golden age keys circulate in much lower numbers, but that doesn't mean the demand for silver isn't there. if, as you say, they were priced out of most budgets, then wouldn't they be selling for less, instead of more than before??

First of all silver and golden KEYS are selling very well. But NON key SA/GA have ZERO spec power when compared to copper & moderns. That part is nonexistent.

I would assume that dealers price their silver-golden keys much much much much higher because they are subscribing to the thought that those are much safer investment stocks than the much more commonly accessible modern/copper keys AND spec books they are moving at such an inflated price 

They are probably right

[SuperZar]

Definately would agree with many of the comments here that what has kept the comics industry alive are older folks like myself. We either never left the hobby, or come back years later with more money and passion than ever... but we're not gonna be around forever.  It's the old adage, 'The future lies in the hands of our children'. 

True that there are just so many other distractions for kids these days. But in my opinion, what really killed the hobby is the greed of the comics industry themselves via direct sales to comic shops - and inflation mainly due to rising production/distribution costs. 

As a 10y old in the 70s, I was very active with many other hobbies/interests and would never have missed reading the adventurs of Superman and the Hulk. But on the way to school, my eye would catch those comic racks at the corner 'candy store'.  I remember at first only glancing thru a few issues before I had to run out so as not to be late. But one day, perhaps because of some awesome Gil Kane cover that promised the most incredible tale with adventure and surprise, I picked up my first issue for $0.20. Of couse I was hooked after that.

That $0.20 was literally pocket change, and the comics could be purchased in my own neighborhood.  According to inflation calculators available online, that $0.20 would be $0.90 today - STILL affordable to a little kid today.  But no. He would have to take a bus across town and plonck down $3.99.  Ain't gonna happen unless you're already hooked.  Without easy access to comics at a reasonable price for kids (isn't that the market after all?), I just don't see any upside.  Prices WILL come down, and at least I'll finally be able to afford my own grail one day. A NM copy of Green Lantern #76

Edited March 17, 2018 by SuperZar

[Mercury Man]

1 hour ago, SuperZar said:

According to inflation calculators available online, that $0.20 would be $0.90 today -

That says a lot.  

[Aweandlorder]

1 hour ago, SuperZar said:

Definately would agree with many of the comments here that what has kept the comics industry alive are older folks like myself. We either never left the hobby, or come back years later with more money and passion than ever... but we're not gonna be around forever.  It's the old addage, 'The future lies in the hands of our children'. 

True that there are just so many other distractions for kids these days. But in my opinion, what really killed the hobby is the greed of the comics industry themselves via direct sales to comic shops - and inflation mainly due to rising production/distribution costs. 

As a 10y old in the 70s, I was very active with many other hobbies/interests and would never have missed reading the adventurs of Superman and the Hulk. But on the way to school, my eye would catch those comic racks at the corner 'candy store'.  I remember at first only glancing thru a few issues before I had to run out so as not to be late. But one day, perhaps because of some awesome Gil Kane cover that promised the most incredible tale with adventure and surprise, I picked up my first issue for $0.20. Of couse I was hooked after that.

That $0.20 was literally pocket change, and the comics could be purchased in my own neighborhood.  According to inflation calculators available online, that $0.20 would be $0.90 today - STILL affordable to a little kid today.  But no. He would have to take a bus across town and plonck down $3.99.  Ain't gonna happen unless you're already hooked.  Without easy access to comics at a reasonable price for kids (isn't that the market after all?), I just don't see any upside.  Prices WILL come down, and at least I'll finally be able to afford my own grail one day. A NM copy of Green Lantern #76

I agree with everything you say except for the blame portion.

There are many reasons why comics are more expensive nowadays as opposed to say up till the late 80s. Up until that time the prices were more or less affordable as you put it - pocket change.

In the 80s a major change happened in 2 fronts: comic code & creative control. And those walked almost hand in hand when it came to pricing.

Many ground breaking writers have demanded more creative control of their work and creation, and the work for hire ethos (although still existing then) has dwarfed significantly. 

What many people dont realize, is that a HUGE chunk of the money the publishers made was not from the 75 cent cover price of the comic, but rather from licensing properties and material to other media outlets and countries. Once you had the writers get a big chunk of that pie the publishers were left with much less in their pocket. I dont know to what degree that has effected them financially but that is why there was a major shift with pricing and format. Esp when writers had the freedom to go to other independent companies and have their work published there. Fast forward to today and you see how MANY writers chose wisely to do so 

As you can see today, creative control over material is almost everything in our industry, now more so than ever with so much comic book source material dominating blockbuster movies and TV shows. 

I do believe that most writers nowadays put out material that they hope would get licensed first, and have a readership following second. Such as with a book like Outcast for instance that was published the day it was adapted to be a TV show. Outcast is probably also the only book that worked successfully on both fronts - sales and getting a show - and thats not because of the quality writing, but mainly because of the buzz it generated.  Image could have probably given that book away and recoup their money from licensing the show, but Kirkman being the main shareholder of that property probably pocketed most of that deal (if not all?)

[Moondog]

On 3/14/2018 at 6:25 PM, FSF said:

I think it's obvious that Boomers are selling, some while they're still alive and others when their heirs disburse the assets.  Either way, I don't think that is really all that big of an issue. The question really comes down to whether current, and more importantly, future generations will continue to pick up the slack.  This is very debatable.  Personally, I'm a firm believer that collectors who collect generally migrate to what they did in their youth in an effort to buy back their childhoods.  Because of that philosophy, I do believe that comics have a shelf life that will eventually kill it and kill it for good.  I don't see that happening for at lease a decade or more but I do firmly believe that day is coming.  When I consider the low print runs for the past couple of decades, and the fact that most of that was even bought by adults, I don't see an influx of "I collected when I was a kid and am finding the hobby again" crowd, which I consider to be the most indispensable element of the collectors market.  

Well said, and I agree with you.

 

[WolverineX]

Wow.  So should Generation X  start selling off now too  because the millennials probably don't even know what to do with a real paper book. 

[Gaard]

On 3/16/2018 at 7:57 PM, ComicConnoisseur said:

That shows also back than a hot artist was lot more important than like a first appearance by a character now is. The first appearance by in large now are considered the go to keys over hot artist.

Also I can't remember that last time in the last 10 years that a modern artist was so hot that their comics jumped in price like those McFarlanes did way back then.

+1 on hot artists being important

Also, origin stories were considered much more important back then.

The same goes for any 'change' ... like Captain Marvel's mega-bands.

And X-overs.

Things were different last century.

 

signed

a boomer  <---- been thinking about selling it off to help with my son's education