Are the Boomers cashing out? 6 6

[delekkerste]

On 3/14/2018 at 6:57 PM, namisgr said:

If the value of your comic book collection would make a life-changing difference, then you're very likely to sell it.  This becomes an especially important choice nearing or in retirement.  Of course baby boomers are selling off their collections.  Heck, even devoted boomer collectors like Jon Berk, Magik Woo, Doctor Fate and Doug Schmell sold off their singular collections.

Yep.  Sure, some % of die-hard collectors, especially very wealthy ones, will go to their graves without selling their collections.  That doesn't mean it's the norm, though - as you pointed out, a number of prominent Boomer collectors, even those who didn't need the cash (like billionaire hedge funder Marc Lasry), have already cashed out in recent years.  

Also, space is a big consideration, as you said.  My parents are looking to downsize and I still have all of my comics accumulated during the 1980s and 1990s at their place, and I am dreading having to find the space to store them.  I already have a storage locker in NYC (not cheap, but, cheaper than taking up valuable Manhattan residential space) that is bursting at the seams.  Many people do not have sympathetic wives, spare room or money for third party storage to keep growing ever-expanding collections.  And, at some point, what's the point, really?  Even if you never stop loving comics, that doesn't mean you want to be devoting your 60s, 70s, 80s and beyond to maintaining a large collection and all that it entails, let alone that being your primary focus in life.

Eventually, it is far more likely to be demographics/aging that causes this hobby/market to enter into a long-term secular decline, not an economic downturn (though, that may certainly accelerate/accentuate it).  The market looks great right now, but, the long-term seeds of decline were planted in the mid-1990s when future generations' interests were split into an infinite number of directions with the sweeping changes of the Information Age.  Future generations simply will not have the numbers, interest or financial resources in the aggregate to clear the market at today's prices, let alone ever-escalating prices.  Most Boomers and Gen Xers couldn't even buy their collections over again from scratch if they had to; the Millennials and Gen Zers, not even having the same level of exposure/interest, let alone having as good earning prospects or the benefit of the easiest interest rate and most bubblicious asset value conditions to build wealth, will have NO chance whatsoever.  NONE.

I've long since stopped trying to pinpoint when the inflection point will occur, but, it's like a cumulative probability function:  the farther out you go, the greater the chance that we will have hit the secular peak of the hobby where it doesn't get any better for the vast majority of the hobby.  I mean, sure, maybe there's a case to be made that Action #1, etc. remain on upward trajectories (though, frankly, I do not subscribe to that theory...but, that is another debate), but, there will come a point when the vast majority of the market hollows out over time.  10 years?  20 years?  30 years?  I'd say within 30 years is a near-metaphysical certainty, and that even 20 years is probably a stretch.  Not that the market/hobby will implode overnight by any means (and, let me be clear:  no one is saying that it's going away completely or that truly iconic, desirable books will suddenly become near-worthless), but, 20 years from now?  Yeah, I'm pretty sure by that point we will be looking back and saying the best days of the hobby are behind it.  Demography is Destiny.  

[WolverineX]

Nice points... so what hobby should we jump into for better long term potential for our heirs... video games?  Cryptocurrency? 

Edited March 18, 2018 by Wolverinex

[Aweandlorder]

There are many people that do not sell their collections bcs of a combination of security/procrastination. Kinda like the same way that a lot of people sign up to a gym and never set foot on its premise. 

And god knows there are a lot of fat f**s in our hobby ??

[Maverickcomics]

No hard feelings but I welcome a market correction and or boomer cash out. I've always felt the younger collectors have been priced out of the market from the get go. If you were born after say 1980 you never had a chance at the truly good stuff unless your parents or older siblings collected. 

I wish no ill will on any fellow collectors but some price corrections or a few fresh collections coming to market would be fine by me.

 

 

[SuperZar]

1 hour ago, Wolverinex said:

Nice points... so what hobby should we jump into for better long term potential for our heirs... video games?  Cryptocurrency? 

My dad was never impressed with my hobbies/collections.  He would say the only thing worth collecting is money, and in many ways he was right.  Hobbies by their very nature are going to cost you money. Don't worry too much about any returns and just collect for the pure joy of it.   

[SuperZar]

17 hours ago, Aweandlorder said:

In the 80s a major change happened in 2 fronts: comic code & creative control. And those walked almost hand in hand when it came to pricing.

Makes alot of sense, and certainly explains why the cover price of a comic book has surpassed inflation by such a large margin.

I guess another comparison would be the movie industry.  The cost to purchase a ticket w/popcorn-drink is WAY over what it use to be decades ago and also jumped the inflation numbers in a big way.  I guess its because the Arnolds of the industry are asking 100 million a movie.  Hollywood stars always did OK, but it's gotten ridicules.   We're the ones who end up paying for those crazy salaries of course.

[hippiecop]

4 hours ago, delekkerste said:

Yep.  Sure, some % of die-hard collectors, especially very wealthy ones, will go to their graves without selling their collections.  That doesn't mean it's the norm, though - as you pointed out, a number of prominent Boomer collectors, even those who didn't need the cash (like billionaire hedge funder Marc Lasry), have already cashed out in recent years.  

Also, space is a big consideration, as you said.  My parents are looking to downsize and I still have all of my comics accumulated during the 1980s and 1990s at their place, and I am dreading having to find the space to store them.  I already have a storage locker in NYC (not cheap, but, cheaper than taking up valuable Manhattan residential space) that is bursting at the seams.  Many people do not have sympathetic wives, spare room or money for third party storage to keep growing ever-expanding collections.  And, at some point, what's the point, really?  Even if you never stop loving comics, that doesn't mean you want to be devoting your 60s, 70s, 80s and beyond to maintaining a large collection and all that it entails, let alone that being your primary focus in life.

Eventually, it is far more likely to be demographics/aging that causes this hobby/market to enter into a long-term secular decline, not an economic downturn (though, that may certainly accelerate/accentuate it).  The market looks great right now, but, the long-term seeds of decline were planted in the mid-1990s when future generations' interests were split into an infinite number of directions with the sweeping changes of the Information Age.  Future generations simply will not have the numbers, interest or financial resources in the aggregate to clear the market at today's prices, let alone ever-escalating prices.  Most Boomers and Gen Xers couldn't even buy their collections over again from scratch if they had to; the Millennials and Gen Zers, not even having the same level of exposure/interest, let alone having as good earning prospects or the benefit of the easiest interest rate and most bubblicious asset value conditions to build wealth, will have NO chance whatsoever.  NONE.

I've long since stopped trying to pinpoint when the inflection point will occur, but, it's like a cumulative probability function:  the farther out you go, the greater the chance that we will have hit the secular peak of the hobby where it doesn't get any better for the vast majority of the hobby.  I mean, sure, maybe there's a case to be made that Action #1, etc. remain on upward trajectories (though, frankly, I do not subscribe to that theory...but, that is another debate), but, there will come a point when the vast majority of the market hollows out over time.  10 years?  20 years?  30 years?  I'd say within 30 years is a near-metaphysical certainty, and that even 20 years is probably a stretch.  Not that the market/hobby will implode overnight by any means (and, let me be clear:  no one is saying that it's going away completely or that truly iconic, desirable books will suddenly become near-worthless), but, 20 years from now?  Yeah, I'm pretty sure by that point we will be looking back and saying the best days of the hobby are behind it.  Demography is Destiny.  

Well thought-out, and logical analysis.  As always, Gene is "must-read" CGC forum...

[Aweandlorder]

49 minutes ago, SuperZar said:

Makes alot of sense, and certainly explains why the cover price of a comic book has surpassed inflation by such a large margin.

 

Yup at a certain point in the late 80s DC simply started publishing mature content without any such disclosure on those books. Their explanation to this was "no kid will pay 2.95 to buy a comic" 

You could say that that was the turning point in shifting attention from kids to adults in our hobby

[Bomber-Bob]

Okay, I'm an aging Baby Boomer. When reaching a baby boomer age I think we start thinking about downsizing. Not necessarily cashing out, just downsizing. You want to make more room, clean out the closet. Maybe you need a little more income in your senior years so you sell some books. My point is it's not an all or nothing situation. You can sell off quantity and still continue to collect. 

[lizards2]

1 hour ago, Bomber-Bob said:

Okay, I'm an aging Baby Boomer. When reaching a baby boomer age I think we start thinking about downsizing. Not necessarily cashing out, just downsizing. You want to make more room, clean out the closet. Maybe you need a little more income in your senior years so you sell some books. My point is it's not an all or nothing situation. You can sell off quantity and still continue to collect. 

I am a retired baby boomer, and the krap I envision me downsizing is modern and copper....., 

[lou_fine]

On 3/15/2018 at 3:12 PM, Aweandlorder said:

I dont remember a time where a modern would fetch over 5k in the same manner it does nowadays..

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Danger-Girl-2-CGC-9-8-NM-RUBY-RED-Smoking-Gun-Variant-RARE-HTF-Image/232691269340?hash=item362d7afedc:g:jT0AAOSwKvJaoU-J

Thousands of dollars for a non key book, because it was graded high? that didnt happen in the 90s (obviously) 

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Rick-And-Morty-1-Justin-Roiland-Variant-CGC-9-8-April-15-1-50-HTF-SUPER-RARE-1D/182977389015?hash=item2a9a4d61d7:g:dRsAAOSwlptaPTwe

Thousands of dollars for a variant which many here will argue is shilled? That didnt happen in the 90s either

many many other examples that showcase how the modern market has taken off, mostly bcs of this new breed of collectors, but also bcs of new marketing and grading strategies. And thats not even factoring movie buzz/hype

 

 

On 3/15/2018 at 3:35 PM, Aweandlorder said:

A current market being healthy is just that. No need to reiterate that its healthy. My discussion was about how the market nowadays has shifted towards newer books as opposed to older (silver or golden) with the given example of BP. then I went on to outlay how current marketing strategy and the grading system has helped inflate modern books prices (Im not knocking it down, just stating the facts)

It would appear that your definition of the current Modern comic book market is limited to only manufactured graded collectibles such as low print runs of uber high grade Modern variants.  I don't believe this same strong and healthy market applies to non-variant Modern books off the shelves and most definitely if they are not in nosebleed level grades.

This is in sharp contrast to the older Silver and in particular, Golden age market where many books can sell for multiples of guide in all condition levels across the entire spectrum, not only in the nosebleed grades.  In fact, some of them even sell for multiples of guide in Restored condition which is something that you would never ever see with a Modern book.  Have you not seen some of the continuing record prices being paid for some of these older books in the major auctions? 

So, I would definitely disagree with your point of view that the market has moved strongly towards the Modern books (and especially non-variant copies) and away from the older books. 

[Gatsby77]

27 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

 

It would appear that your definition of the current Modern comic book market is limited to only manufactured graded collectibles such as low print runs of uber high grade Modern variants.  I don't believe this same strong and healthy market applies to non-variant Modern books off the shelves and most definitely if they are not in nosebleed level grades.

This is in sharp contrast to the older Silver and in particular, Golden age market where many books can sell for multiples of guide in all condition levels across the entire spectrum, not only in the nosebleed grades.  In fact, some of them even sell for multiples of guide in Restored condition which is something that you would never ever see with a Modern book.  Have you not seen some of the continuing record prices being paid for some of these older books in the major auctions? 

So, I would definitely disagree with your point of view that the market has moved strongly towards the Modern books (and especially non-variant copies) and away from the older books. 

Agreed.

Quoting a price for a 9.8 Danger Girl Ruby Red as an example of "health" among moderns is disingenuous.

First, it came out 20 years ago.

Second, it's *always* been one of the most limited -- and expensive -- variants.

It'd be like quoting a sale price on a slabbed Bloodshot 0 Platinum ($1,700 sale in CGC 9.4 last spring) to back up the assertion that "Valiants are hot."

A better example?

Maybe the first Batman New 52 run (2011). The first issue still sells for $50+ ungraded, despite being the top book of the month when released -- with nearly 200,000 orders.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Gatsby77

[Bomber-Bob]

2 hours ago, lizards2 said:

I am a retired baby boomer, and the krap I envision me downsizing is modern and copper....., 

Exactly. We grew up with Silver, so I try and focus on Silver.  Copper is still relatively cheap so it's easy to hoard but I try and stay focused.

[1Cool]

22 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

Agreed.

Quoting a price for a 9.8 Danger Girl Ruby Red as an example of "health" among moderns is disingenuous.

First, it came out 20 years ago.

Second, it's *always* been one of the most limited -- and expensive -- variants.

It'd be like quoting a sale price on a slabbed Bloodshot 0 Platinum ($1,700 sale in CGC 9.4 last spring) to back up the assertion that "Valiants are hot."

A better example?

Maybe the first Batman New 52 run (2011). The first issue still sells for $50+ ungraded, despite being the top book of the month when released -- with nearly 200,000 orders.

Problem is Batman 1 use to be a $100+ book not that long ago.  Modern books jump up but most crash down soon after.

[aardvark88]

1 minute ago, 1Cool said:

 Modern books jump up but most crash down soon after.

Agreed. I think new issue print runs will reach it's nadir shortly and plateau by summer, 2018. e.g. Action Comics #1000 with 16 covers plus store variants on top being released April 18, 2018. Speculation on ASM #798 Red Goblin and even more spec and high pre-orders  on ASM #800 key issue #. Image's Robert Kirkman supported his new Oblivion Song #1 by offering retailers an extra 15% discount to backstock stacks of copies released March, 2018.

[Lazyboy]

59 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

This is in sharp contrast to the older Silver and in particular, Golden age market where many books can sell for multiples of guide in all condition levels across the entire spectrum, not only in the nosebleed grades.

That's only because Guide prices are a joke.

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

In fact, some of them even sell for multiples of guide in Restored condition which is something that you would never ever see with a Modern book.

Bringing up restoration and trying to compare older books to Moderns is a Jaydog-level ridiculous argument.

Lots of Moderns, post-Copper/pre-Moderns, and Coppers sell for multiples of Guide because, again, Guide prices are a joke.

[FSF]

If Boomers don't cash out, they'll eventually crash out.  Of course, that's even more true for a Gen Xer like myself.  However, I look at the money I spend on a hobby as complete sunk cost and am at peace with the notion that whatever I put into it, I will lose all of it.  Obviously it would be great if the following generations would pick up and carry the torch, and just merely provide my investment back without any returns, apart from inflation perhaps.  But I don't expect that to happen and consider the money spent on comics like I do spending money on travel, sporting events, nice restaurants, etc.  An enjoyable experience that provides immediate satisfaction and some good memories, but not a viable store of value, let alone an investment.

[lou_fine]

57 minutes ago, Lazyboy said:

Bringing up restoration and trying to compare older books to Moderns is a Jaydog-level ridiculous argument.

Not really because it validates the fact that a larger proportion of the older books carry much more true investment quality dollar value because of the underlying book itself, regardless of their condition.

Not so much with the Modern book whereby it is based more upon an artificial manufactured value (i.e. limited variants as opposed to non-variant books).  Or even with most Copper Age books which are really more of a graded collectible as they don't really carry much value unless they are graded, and even if graded needs to be in a relatively high grade to be truly worth anything.

But really, to each their own as it's most important to collect what you enjoy, regardless of their value. 

[paul747]

10 hours ago, delekkerste said:

Yep.  Sure, some % of die-hard collectors, especially very wealthy ones, will go to their graves without selling their collections.  That doesn't mean it's the norm, though - as you pointed out, a number of prominent Boomer collectors, even those who didn't need the cash (like billionaire hedge funder Marc Lasry), have already cashed out in recent years.  

Also, space is a big consideration, as you said.  My parents are looking to downsize and I still have all of my comics accumulated during the 1980s and 1990s at their place, and I am dreading having to find the space to store them.  I already have a storage locker in NYC (not cheap, but, cheaper than taking up valuable Manhattan residential space) that is bursting at the seams.  Many people do not have sympathetic wives, spare room or money for third party storage to keep growing ever-expanding collections.  And, at some point, what's the point, really?  Even if you never stop loving comics, that doesn't mean you want to be devoting your 60s, 70s, 80s and beyond to maintaining a large collection and all that it entails, let alone that being your primary focus in life.

Eventually, it is far more likely to be demographics/aging that causes this hobby/market to enter into a long-term secular decline, not an economic downturn (though, that may certainly accelerate/accentuate it).  The market looks great right now, but, the long-term seeds of decline were planted in the mid-1990s when future generations' interests were split into an infinite number of directions with the sweeping changes of the Information Age.  Future generations simply will not have the numbers, interest or financial resources in the aggregate to clear the market at today's prices, let alone ever-escalating prices.  Most Boomers and Gen Xers couldn't even buy their collections over again from scratch if they had to; the Millennials and Gen Zers, not even having the same level of exposure/interest, let alone having as good earning prospects or the benefit of the easiest interest rate and most bubblicious asset value conditions to build wealth, will have NO chance whatsoever.  NONE.

I've long since stopped trying to pinpoint when the inflection point will occur, but, it's like a cumulative probability function:  the farther out you go, the greater the chance that we will have hit the secular peak of the hobby where it doesn't get any better for the vast majority of the hobby.  I mean, sure, maybe there's a case to be made that Action #1, etc. remain on upward trajectories (though, frankly, I do not subscribe to that theory...but, that is another debate), but, there will come a point when the vast majority of the market hollows out over time.  10 years?  20 years?  30 years?  I'd say within 30 years is a near-metaphysical certainty, and that even 20 years is probably a stretch.  Not that the market/hobby will implode overnight by any means (and, let me be clear:  no one is saying that it's going away completely or that truly iconic, desirable books will suddenly become near-worthless), but, 20 years from now?  Yeah, I'm pretty sure by that point we will be looking back and saying the best days of the hobby are behind it.  Demography is Destiny.  

I can see where you could assume your theory from.  I am starting to think your constant gloom is to try to keep the prices down .  Follow the money ! its not just nostalgic old comic book people buying into comics , far from it ! The collectible pool of buyers is growing to include,  international buyers, art buyers, general collectable buyers, Disney collectors, pop culture heads and many more  ! I believe you are truly underselling this genre of collectibles.  There have been many public examples of kids in their 20's buying golden age books, I think it took a very long time for the comic market to become more main stream and respectable and I think that time is almost here.  In my opinion this market is not going down in 10, 20 or even 30 years I think it will be the opposite.  I do believe like any market there will be big dips and big hills but things will average out. There is a lot of money in this world and American pop culture comic book characters are now very worldly ! I think we will be looking back and saying FXXK ! I should have grabbed another copy of that book ! 20 or 30 years from now they are going to revive all these marvel movies in 6D and live interactive movie technology, and a Hulk #1 is going to be 150 grand for a mid grade.  Golden age comics are so rare and demand is very high right now and high grade silver and bronze age classic books are relatively rare compared to demand.  Modern variant collectors will get crushed.

[Aweandlorder]

2 hours ago, lou_fine said:

 

It would appear that your definition of the current Modern comic book market is limited to only manufactured graded collectibles 

No it isn't

You choosing to think that illustrating a point (whereas an example was set) should b limited to just that is narrow sighted.

What about hundreds 1 bin drek MODERN books selling for 10-50 bucks, what about newsstand MODERN books selling for hundreds, what about 9.9-10.0 MODERNS selling for thousands, what about 2nd-later print NON variant MODERNS outperforming originals, what about optioned MODERN books exploding in value bcs of a movie announcement 

That is just a taste of what the modern market has evolved into in recent years 

That, again, is just to illustrate to you how stupid a market (or not, time will tell), this has become

and last those are just examples of MODERN trends that mostly never existed in our hobby until recently  

You further LIMITING the SA/GA markets as the ONLY prosperous markets in our hobby is, again, very narrow sighted  

Maybe, just maybe, there a possibility that they are BOTH doing well?