# of whales with unlimited funds 1 1

[wurstisart]

Is it a nono to name them ?

I have no idea, but I have to admit, I would love to hear which celebrity collects comics or comic art.

[PhilipB2k17]

27 minutes ago, wurstisart said:

Is it a nono to name them ?

I have no idea, but I have to admit, I would love to hear which celebrity collects comics or comic art.

Listen to Felix’s podcast. He interviews a few of them. But I think Seth Myers is one. He had Dave Mandel on his show and they talked about collecting comic art and Star Wars memorabilia. 

Abd Mark Hammill was a big comic colllector at one point. So it wouldn’t surprise me if he also collects OA. 

But, apparently it is verboten to identify people here for some reason. 

Edited October 26, 2017 by PhilipB2k17

[Rick2you2]

I think what they are doing, unintentionally, is recreating the infamous Dutch Tulip Bulb mania in the 1600's. There, prices of tulip bulbs kept going up in price, and people decided they could make a lot of money at it. They bid up the prices even higher, bringing in more speculators. Eventually, the prices got really high, too high to sustain the market. Everything crashed and a lot of people lost a lot of money. To this day the story is taught to young economics students--it is an example of "overshoot and collapse."

I like buying and looking at art as a hobby. Some of it is really good. But this is commercial art which is substantially targeted at a nostalgia market and it has limited general appeal. Furthermore, its future isn't that hot; there aren't a lot of kids buying comics these days. How many books sell 100,000 copies per issue? As many of us slowly age and die off, interest will go the way of antique marbles and train sets. As that happens, prices which were once reached will never find an equivalent buyer again. The market will get hollowed and crash--like the Tulip bulbs. I give it around 20 years before a major re-set.

I don't know how many people spend gillions of dollars on art, but for their families, I hope it's throwaway money.

 

 

 

Edited October 26, 2017 by Rick2you2
grammar edits

[delekkerste]

In very broad strokes, here are my very unscientific, ballpark guesstimates:

Number of people in the hobby who could, theoretically, get the money to make a 6-figure OA purchase:  a lot

Number of people in the hobby who are willing/able and/or are theoretically/realistically able to quickly liquidate other chunky pieces of art to make a 6-figure OA purchase, perhaps supplemented with available cash:  Less than 100

Number of people who actually have made a single 6-figure OA purchase (including selling to buy, but excluding purchases of art that subsequently appreciated to 6-figures), have made credible 6-figure offers that were rejected, or were underbidders on 6-figure auction sales (thus showing both ability and intent):  Less than 75

Number of people who have actually completed a single 6-figure OA purchase (excluding those who tried & failed in their attempts):  Less than 50

Number of people for whom the above were not just one or two-offs:  less than 30

Number of people who fairly regularly drop 6-figures, including dealers:  less than 15  

So, at any given time, the potential market for a 6-figure, marquee piece that comes up for auction is probably ~30 people, of which only a handful will be both active and very interested, ultimately leading to probably 2-4 bidders (incl. dealers) accounting for the last handful of bids and setting the final price.

Sounds to me like you (John S.) would probably lean a little lower on the estimates; I added some estimated fudge factor to account for all the collectors who are not readily visible on CAF or elsewhere in the hobby (including a number that I've dealt with personally on private deals or heard about from various connections), but, in this instance, I could certainly be wrong.  

As for the people in that photo, there are some heavy hitters there, including a number who have spent 6-figures/multiple 6-figures on a single piece of OA.  And, yet, I don't know if any of them do it with such regularity, or have such critical mass in their collections, that I would call them a true whale.  I certainly don't consider myself to be one...maybe a blue shark at best (not that I'm admitting to being in that photo or part of any "Cabal", LOL).    

That said, I cannot speak to the BSD/whale credentials of the guy who I heard took that photo.  Rumor has it that he's the shadowy guy behind the guy who was recently tipped as the most connected and influential collector in the UK (if not Europe).   

[DJRome]

Serious question: not looking for names or a list (but provide whatever you want), how many "whales" are in the hobby? I'm specifically referring to people that can and often do drop 6 figures on OA frequently (monthly or whenever they want). Excluding the high volume known dealers, of course.

I remember asking myself the same question about eight years ago.  And while I can give no definitive answer, my best guess would be that you could count them on your fingers. Very few collectors have the juice to hit six figures on any deal, and almost none of them do so nonchalantly. The price acceleration of the really high end stuff is enough to make even the wealthiest collectors think twice before a purchase. It's not just about being able to afford the art; a collector also has to feel good about the deal.

What I wonder about now is how many collectors out there can (& have) hit the 50k mark for something that they really want? Or even 25k? The whales have always been few & far between, but more & more collectors are getting comfortable playing at these levels. 

[gumbydarnit]

While not a whale in the hobby, I would consider myself a bluegill... no scratch that, maybe a guppy.

[batman_fan]

 

[eewwnuk]

can u guys induct machismo into the cabal at this point?

[zhamlau]

5 hours ago, delekkerste said:

In very broad strokes, here are my very unscientific, ballpark guesstimates:

Number of people in the hobby who could, theoretically, get the money to make a 6-figure OA purchase:  a lot

Number of people in the hobby who are willing/able and/or are theoretically/realistically able to quickly liquidate other chunky pieces of art to make a 6-figure OA purchase, perhaps supplemented with available cash:  Less than 100

Number of people who actually have made a single 6-figure OA purchase (including selling to buy, but excluding purchases of art that subsequently appreciated to 6-figures), have made credible 6-figure offers that were rejected, or were underbidders on 6-figure auction sales (thus showing both ability and intent):  Less than 75

Number of people who have actually completed a single 6-figure OA purchase (excluding those who tried & failed in their attempts):  Less than 50

Number of people for whom the above were not just one or two-offs:  less than 30

Number of people who fairly regularly drop 6-figures, including dealers:  less than 15  

So, at any given time, the potential market for a 6-figure, marquee piece that comes up for auction is probably ~30 people, of which only a handful will be both active and very interested, ultimately leading to probably 2-4 bidders (incl. dealers) accounting for the last handful of bids and setting the final price.

Sounds to me like you (John S.) would probably lean a little lower on the estimates; I added some estimated fudge factor to account for all the collectors who are not readily visible on CAF or elsewhere in the hobby (including a number that I've dealt with personally on private deals or heard about from various connections), but, in this instance, I could certainly be wrong.  

As for the people in that photo, there are some heavy hitters there, including a number who have spent 6-figures/multiple 6-figures on a single piece of OA.  And, yet, I don't know if any of them do it with such regularity, or have such critical mass in their collections, that I would call them a true whale.  I certainly don't consider myself to be one...maybe a blue shark at best (not that I'm admitting to being in that photo or part of any "Cabal", LOL).    

That said, I cannot speak to the BSD/whale credentials of the guy who I heard took that photo.  Rumor has it that he's the shadowy guy behind the guy who was recently tipped as the most connected and influential collector in the UK (if not Europe).   

Ah...so the answer is "42"....it all makes sense now.

[John S.]

5 hours ago, delekkerste said:

That said, I cannot speak to the BSD/whale credentials of the guy who I heard took that photo.  Rumor has it that he's the shadowy guy behind the guy who was recently tipped as the most connected and influential collector in the UK (if not Europe).   

I pissed myself laughing (the cabal will understand)

[delekkerste]

5 hours ago, delekkerste said:

That said, I cannot speak to the BSD/whale credentials of the guy who I heard took that photo.  Rumor has it that he's the shadowy guy behind the guy who was recently tipped as the most connected and influential collector in the UK (if not Europe).   

 

5 minutes ago, John S. said:

I pissed myself laughing (the cabal will understand)

I heard that, one time, a photo of this shadowy "guy behind the guy" surfaced online.

Soon after, not only did all traces of the photo disappear from the Internet, but, I heard that the guy who posted the photo is rotting in a jail somewhere in Macedonia on some trumped up charge.   

I swear that some of the above story is true.  Do not cross this man; do not try to find out his name; and, whatever you do, do not attempt to take a photo of him, as he may be the most dangerous of all the Caballers.  

[glendgold]

I like Gene's numbers.  It was a good way to see exactly where I fell off baller mountain. 

[PhilipB2k17]

Assuming Gene’s numbers are correct, then it only takes a handful of collectors to perpetuate the high prices of higher end OA. Demographic and economic trends be damned. 

[vodou]

35 minutes ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

Assuming Gene’s numbers are correct, then it only takes a handful of collectors to perpetuate the high prices of higher end OA. Demographic and economic trends be damned. 

Uh huh. Assuming perpetual growth of the population and the population of billionaires, you mean. After all, as a % (of population) of a % (that's got gobs of disposable income or net worth) of a % (that's into comics) of a % (that's into comic art)...lol.

[SquareChaos]

Economic collapse of the OA market confirmed

 

[PhilipB2k17]

11 minutes ago, vodou said:

Uh huh. Assuming perpetual growth of the population and the population of billionaires, you mean. After all, as a % (of population) of a % (that's got gobs of disposable income or net worth) of a % (that's into comics) of a % (that's into comic art)...lol.

It only takes a few. 

[DeadpoolJr.]

56 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

Economic collapse of the OA market confirmed

 

Is anybody else waiting for this collapse to occur so they can buy a few pieces on the cheap that they couldn't afford before?

On a more serious not, does anybody remember if the comic art market experienced a collapse in the 90's during the same time as the comic market did? Were they considered distinct markets back then, where the flippers, and speculators that contributed to the comic crash also spread to OA? I've seen some people here talk about the dramatic price increases OA has experience in the last decade which makes me wonder how many have joined it's ranked only to flip it later on, where as back then OA didn't bring as much in a short hold time, as speculating on comics did.

 

[vodou]

50 minutes ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

It only takes a few. 

Yes. But to move "what"? When you make the argument that a broad base doesn't matter then you're also making the point that "what" can be literally anything that three guys that have 100x more than you to spend on "it" decide "it" will be. And that's fine...but who gives a sht? And by the way, that doesn't negate the argument that everything else will collapse due to economic and demographic shifts. Everything else being whatever those three guys aren't buying this year!

[Brian Peck]

On 10/25/2017 at 9:53 AM, delekkerste said:

You're all on The Cabal's blacklist now.   

 

Should have blocked out that hat as well.

[John S.]

12 hours ago, delekkerste said:

 

I heard that, one time, a photo of this shadowy "guy behind the guy" surfaced online.

Soon after, not only did all traces of the photo disappear from the Internet, but, I heard that the guy who posted the photo is rotting in a jail somewhere in Macedonia on some trumped up charge.   

I swear that some of the above story is true.  Do not cross this man; do not try to find out his name; and, whatever you do, do not attempt to take a photo of him, as he may be the most dangerous of all the Caballers.  

I heard that people that like to  talk about the 1 photo that surfaced of the shadowy guy, behind the man who is "The UK's most Influential and connected art player", should be aware that he doesn't take kindly to even that much talk of him, and that they should be fearful of the repercussions.

 

He is most definitely the most feared of all the Caballers, and all talk of him should stop immediately, as we risk retribution beyond measure if it continues. He has eyes and ears everywhere!

Edited October 27, 2017 by John S.