ComicArtAds Auction Preview (UPDATED--Heritage weekly ending 12/9/18) 1 1

[Rick2you2]

7 hours ago, Lee B. said:

Good evening!  I was inspired by the return of O. recently to finally write up another Heritage weekly auction preview with predictions.  You can read it all here:

http://www.comicartads.com/content/heritage-weekly-auction-ending-92318

I also have been posting some old Jack Kirby art ads to the ComicArtAds website recently, if you are into that sort of thing.  Thanks!  Best regards, Lee

Welcome back, Lee. 

About that Irv Novick page price, where you wrote: "I still can't get over the final price on the Novick Batman #217 pages.  Just looking at the art in a superficial way, those pages look like they should be netting several hundred dollars at auction, tops."

From an artistic point of view,  I think it is only so-so. But, the dialog describes a planned change by Bruce Wayne from the old to the new Batman, and this may be an example of where dialog increases the value of a page. 

Or perhaps, someone is pushing the price up on old Novick pages?

 

[Lee B.]

Good evening!  I have just posted a new column where I predict the final prices of some art up for grabs in this week's Heritage auction, and review my predictions from three weeks ago.  You can check it out here:

http://www.comicartads.com/content/heritage-weekly-auction-ending-101418

Thanks for reading, and thanks for any comments you might have (including a belated thanks to Rick2you2 for his post a few weeks back).  Cheers, Lee

[Lee B.]

Good morning all!  I have just posted another auction price prediction column on my ComicArtAds website:

http://www.comicartads.com/content/heritage-weekly-auction-ending-111118

Thanks for reading!  Cheers, Lee

[John E.]

10 minutes ago, Lee B. said:

Good morning all!  I have just posted another auction price prediction column on my ComicArtAds website:

http://www.comicartads.com/content/heritage-weekly-auction-ending-111118

Thanks for reading!  Cheers, Lee

Nice reflective write-up, Lee!

[Lee B.]

Good evening!  I managed to put together another auction price prediction column, for the second week in a row.  As always, you can read it on my ComicArtAds website:

http://www.comicartads.com/content/heritage-weekly-111818

This time around I focused on some rather goofy pages in this week's Heritage auction ending on Sunday.  Thanks for reading!  Best, Lee

ps.  I have been posting some vintage John Byrne art ads on the site as well lately, so please check them out, if that's your cup of tea: http://www.comicartads.com/

Edited November 15, 2018 by Lee B.

[Lee B.]

Hi everyone!  The upcoming Heritage weekly auction has some great pieces, and I have written about them, and tried to predict the final prices, here:

http://www.comicartads.com/content/heritage-weekly-12918

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the pictures too!  Best, Lee

[Mighty Hal]

Always enjoy these, Lee. Thanks.

[Rick2you2]

8 hours ago, Lee B. said:

Hi everyone!  The upcoming Heritage weekly auction has some great pieces, and I have written about them, and tried to predict the final prices, here:

http://www.comicartads.com/content/heritage-weekly-12918

Thanks for reading, and enjoy the pictures too!  Best, Lee

Lee, 

In your column you wrote about a Dillon piece involving the wedding of Adam Strange:

$3,840 Adam Strange wedding page from a couple of weeks ago.  Your ComicArtAds pre-auction estimate: $1,050 

But then, this past weekend, a HA Auction resulted in this page going for $3,360. I don't happen to think much of Dillon's art, and I sure didn't bid on it. How is there any explanation for that price? All I can come up with is that two bidders lost their minds or someone is gaming the market for his art. I notice in weeks to come there are several more Dillon-JLA pages coming up, which is leading me to strongly suspect the latter. People here have talked about rigged markets before in a general sense, but this seems like pretty clear evidence of it.

Edited December 6, 2018 by Rick2you2

[Lee B.]

41 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

Lee, 

In your column you wrote about a Dillon piece involving the wedding of Adam Strange:

$3,840 Adam Strange wedding page from a couple of weeks ago.  Your ComicArtAds pre-auction estimate: $1,050 

But then, this past weekend, a HA Auction resulted in this page going for $3,360.

I wrote my column this past Sunday afternoon, before the second unusually high Dillin JLA price that you mentioned.  I think it's possible that there could be some shenanigans going on, but I would expect to see these sales followed up by similar pages being made available to the public by dealers, collector-dealers, etc. at these new and very high price points.  I haven't noticed that yet, but I may have missed something.  Dillin drew hundreds and hundreds of JLA pages, and if one consignor's supply is fueling this steady stream of Dillin JLA pages in this weekly auction, then anomalously high results might float the rest of the consignments a bit higher price-wise.  However, budget-conscious collectors should keep in mind that Dillin's art should not be scarce, and solid pages should be attainable in the future at the more reasonable $500-$1,000 range.  I call that range more reasonable because JLA was a premiere DC title in the 1970s, and I don't think one should expect to find panel pages featuring one or more JLA members at the $200-$300 range anymore, even if one personally is not impressed with Dillin's drawing style.  Thanks for reading my column, and thanks also to Hal for his kind words!  Best, Lee

[Rick2you2]

7 hours ago, Lee B. said:

I wrote my column this past Sunday afternoon, before the second unusually high Dillin JLA price that you mentioned.  I think it's possible that there could be some shenanigans going on, but I would expect to see these sales followed up by similar pages being made available to the public by dealers, collector-dealers, etc. at these new and very high price points.  I haven't noticed that yet, but I may have missed something.  Dillin drew hundreds and hundreds of JLA pages, and if one consignor's supply is fueling this steady stream of Dillin JLA pages in this weekly auction, then anomalously high results might float the rest of the consignments a bit higher price-wise.  However, budget-conscious collectors should keep in mind that Dillin's art should not be scarce, and solid pages should be attainable in the future at the more reasonable $500-$1,000 range.  I call that range more reasonable because JLA was a premiere DC title in the 1970s, and I don't think one should expect to find panel pages featuring one or more JLA members at the $200-$300 range anymore, even if one personally is not impressed with Dillin's drawing style.  Thanks for reading my column, and thanks also to Hal for his kind words!  Best, Lee

Lee, 

Since you asked, another one is in auction, the next auction on Heritage has one coming up and then 4 more the week ending 12/17. RGL Art lists 12 at $1,500. Then there is Archangel at $4,500. Some others are now listing Dillin, too, at a higher amount than you have. I'm not suggesting a conspiracy, but an increased listing price based on what is being auctioned right now. So yes, more is coming out of the woodwork.

I can see Dillin a bit more than $200-300 per page, but even $1,500? For stuff best suited for a coloring book? 

Keep up the good work, oh keeper of the market.

 

 

[vodou]

19 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

Then there is Archangel at $4,500.

First thing you gotta throw this one out immediately, he makes outlier pricing look good

[Rick2you2]

1 hour ago, vodou said:

First thing you gotta throw this one out immediately, he makes outlier pricing look good

What annoys me about these prices is that the work isn't that hot, no matter that he worked on JLA or not. 

For example, in terms or quality, I think DeZuniga is really underappreciated.

[vodou]

51 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

What annoys me about these prices is that the work isn't that hot, no matter that he worked on JLA or not. 

For example, in terms or quality, I think DeZuniga is really underappreciated.

Non-starter, nothing in this thing (we call a "hobby") is about "quality". They've got it and you want it, so it's "hot" to you even if no one else. As long as everybody has other sufficient sources of income or savings, they will set the price not you. The End. I dunno Rick, you make good money, maybe just dump your "rules" and buy things? You can only bottom feed for so long, until that stuff (low end, low price) is gone, and then you either accept everything I just wrote and buy, or don't, but what will not happen is that the market will come down to meet you at a lower price. That just isn't how it works. And if you're waiting for that big crash, assume it will be widespread affecting a lot of asset classes an employment situations, meaning you may not be in any (psychologically) better position to buy then than you are now!

[vodou]

2 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

...

RGL Art lists 12 at $1,500.

...

I can see Dillin a bit more than $200-300 per page, but even $1,500? For stuff best suited for a coloring book?

Gary (RGL) is a good guy, what you see is what you get, no muss no fuss. But he's never been known to sell things for less than FMV. Neither myself nor most anyone in the hobby either. Would you? Anybody that's smart and has been around for a while prices ahead of the market, tomorrow's prices today. I think that's some of what you are seeing. People do this because it's a bull market and the money you get from selling is already stale against what you want to buy by the time you get it. Nobody is selling better material to get an oil change, they are buying other art. Selling overpriced to get other overpriced. Again, just the way it is.

[Rick2you2]

12 hours ago, vodou said:

Non-starter, nothing in this thing (we call a "hobby") is about "quality". They've got it and you want it, so it's "hot" to you even if no one else. As long as everybody has other sufficient sources of income or savings, they will set the price not you. The End. I dunno Rick, you make good money, maybe just dump your "rules" and buy things? You can only bottom feed for so long, until that stuff (low end, low price) is gone, and then you either accept everything I just wrote and buy, or don't, but what will not happen is that the market will come down to meet you at a lower price. That just isn't how it works. And if you're waiting for that big crash, assume it will be widespread affecting a lot of asset classes an employment situations, meaning you may not be in any (psychologically) better position to buy then than you are now!

I do buy things, based on what I like. What I am suggesting here is that as Lee pointed out, the price point should be "at the more reasonable $500-$1,000 range". Someone else emailed me they were happy with their purchase of a Dillin page for $400. Okay, I'm good with that. And if you look at Heritage there had been cheaper Dillion JLA pages just a few months earlier. But with that recently sold Dillin JLA page, and the earlier one with Adam Strange's wedding (which was worth a small bump up because of it) they will become price support for high prices by others because Heritage is a "go to" source for comparisons. That's how you rig a market.

Then, when the "seller" reclaims the 2 pieces, he can resell them and wipe out the loss amount paid to Heritage for premiums, taxes etc.

In the long term, I don't think this stuff is a good investment. But I don't spend that kind of money, so it doesn't matter to me.

I understand people's resistance to the point I am making here. Prices sometimes go up because of greater appreciation for the art. That's not market rigging.

Edited December 7, 2018 by Rick2you2

[vodou]

23 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

I do buy things, based on what I like. What I am suggesting here is that as Lee pointed out, the price point should be "at the more reasonable $500-$1,000 range". Someone else emailed me they were happy with their purchase of a Dillin page for $400. Okay, I'm good with that. And if you look at Heritage there had been cheaper Dillion JLA pages just a few months earlier. But with that recently sold Dillin JLA page, and the earlier one with Adam Strange's wedding (which was worth a small bump up because of it) they will become price support for high prices by others because Heritage is a "go to" source for comparisons. That's how you rig a market.

In the long term, I don't think this stuff is a good investment. But I don't spend that kind of money, so it doesn't matter to me.

I understand people's resistance to the point I am making here. Prices sometimes go up because of greater appreciation for the art. That's not market rigging.

Rigging Richard Dillin is...beyond me. Who would care? Occam's Razor here, rigging occurs but not here, much more likely to be two bidders that put in "win no matter what bids" and they crossed each other at a very much higher than fmv amount. This does happen. It's fun to watch and chuckle about afterward. But it's not market rigging; there are no 'bots, quants, or algorithm systems at work in comic art

[Rick2you2]

9 hours ago, vodou said:

Rigging Richard Dillin is...beyond me. Who would care? Occam's Razor here, rigging occurs but not here, much more likely to be two bidders that put in "win no matter what bids" and they crossed each other at a very much higher than fmv amount. This does happen. It's fun to watch and chuckle about afterward. But it's not market rigging; there are no 'bots, quants, or algorithm systems at work in comic art

That's too easy an answer. There is too much of the stuff out there.

You don't need 'bots, quants, or algorithms for systemic rigging. Some of the worst of in this country was in the 19th century before we even had those terms. All you need is money and finding a bottleneck or pressure point.

Pretend you have 50 Dillin pieces (there is a lot if it out there) which sold previously for $700-900. That would be worth $3,500-4,500.  You place 2 with Heritage for sale and have a friend or 2, or 2 accounts, bid up the price to $3,200. You have now reset the sales value of the remaining 48 pieces to what may be $153,600. All it has cost you is the buyer's and seller's premium on 2 pieces plus shipping, That's about 35% of $700-900 x 2 or less than $650. Not a bad investment, if the price sticks. Even if it doesn't fully stick, even a partial increase is likely. Heritage sales have a way of becoming price guidposts. No algorithim at all. Just a well thought out plan nicely executed.

Is it possible there were just 2 crazy bidders? Sure. Maybe there were other fans of the Phantom Stranger and Adam Strange who considered them must have pieces. They are both such popular characters. Please excuse me for being suspicious.

There seem to be few people around here who want to accept this possibility despite articles mentioned on these boards about how art prices can be rigged. This looks like a real life example.

[vodou]

2 hours ago, Rick2you2 said:

Pretend you have 50 Dillin pieces (there is a lot if it out there) which sold previously for $700-900. That would be worth $3,500-4,500.  You place 2 with Heritage for sale and have a friend or 2, or 2 accounts, bid up the price to $3,200. You have now reset the sales value of the remaining 48 pieces to what may be $153,600...followed by blah blah...

I don't have to pretend. Myself and many others are sitting on hoards of just that sort though not Dillin for me and none exist that I'm particularly aware of out there (which means nothing, and there probably are some!)

This has happened in the Jack Kirby and John Romita markets. I'd like something nice by both of those guys, but cannot and will not perpetuate the thing any further than it already has gone. Others seem more than willing to do so in my absence. I'll wait as long as I can for the ship to right itself but the market will likely stay irrational longer than I can remain solvent (mixed metaphor but whatever) and I may die without something nice by one or both guys entering my collection. Ok. All good. I can and will live with that.

Anyway, "that would be worth..." statement = no. You are forgetting that the buyer always controls the market with his cash. You can't eat, drink or be merry (well, maybe? but it is sorta ugly art) Richard Dillin original art, for that you need money. That's what you have and the seller doesn't, at least in the context of prying his precious Richard Dillin art away. So you set the price, not the market and not the seller, rigging or not. But to do so you have to have the strength of character, the willpower to just walk away from a bad deal, a deal so bad you can't even negotiate it to something resembling FMV nevermind real value (often quite different from hotairpuffed so-called "FMV". The onus is on you to see that and react accordingly. You either can or you can't, obviously you can, as you have said, but why the endless whining? Pick your prize (from your collection), what would it take to pry it away? If it's a large multiple over FMV then you can emphasize with the sellers here too. I sure can, there is some stuff that even Gene's life-changing money scenario wouldn't pry away from me. I don't care, unless I'm literally dying in the moment and the deal is a swap art for a kidney transplant, certain pieces transcend money (to me). That it's Richard Dillin...to anybody...that's the head-scratcher 

[Rick2you2]

7 hours ago, vodou said:

I don't have to pretend. Myself and many others are sitting on hoards of just that sort though not Dillin for me and none exist that I'm particularly aware of out there (which means nothing, and there probably are some!)

This has happened in the Jack Kirby and John Romita markets. I'd like something nice by both of those guys, but cannot and will not perpetuate the thing any further than it already has gone. Others seem more than willing to do so in my absence. I'll wait as long as I can for the ship to right itself but the market will likely stay irrational longer than I can remain solvent (mixed metaphor but whatever) and I may die without something nice by one or both guys entering my collection. Ok. All good. I can and will live with that.

Anyway, "that would be worth..." statement = no. You are forgetting that the buyer always controls the market with his cash. You can't eat, drink or be merry (well, maybe? but it is sorta ugly art) Richard Dillin original art, for that you need money. That's what you have and the seller doesn't, at least in the context of prying his precious Richard Dillin art away. So you set the price, not the market and not the seller, rigging or not. But to do so you have to have the strength of character, the willpower to just walk away from a bad deal, a deal so bad you can't even negotiate it to something resembling FMV nevermind real value (often quite different from hotairpuffed so-called "FMV". The onus is on you to see that and react accordingly. You either can or you can't, obviously you can, as you have said, but why the endless whining? Pick your prize (from your collection), what would it take to pry it away? If it's a large multiple over FMV then you can emphasize with the sellers here too. I sure can, there is some stuff that even Gene's life-changing money scenario wouldn't pry away from me. I don't care, unless I'm literally dying in the moment and the deal is a swap art for a kidney transplant, certain pieces transcend money (to me). That it's Richard Dillin...to anybody...that's the head-scratcher 

Your responses are inconsistent. Earlier, you wrote "They've got it and you want it, so it's "hot" to you even if no one else. As long as everybody has other sufficient sources of income or savings, they will set the price not you"

That's exactly right. Which is why a fictitious pair of bidders is a great way to reset the market price by using Heritage.

By the way, I'm not whining, just warning this looks suspicious to me. Dillin's art is, as someone earlier wrote about some other art... "mundane". 

 

 

[vodou]

47 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

Your responses are inconsistent. Earlier, you wrote "They've got it and you want it, so it's "hot" to you even if no one else. As long as everybody has other sufficient sources of income or savings, they will set the price not you"

That's exactly right. Which is why a fictitious pair of bidders is a great way to reset the market price by using Heritage.

By the way, I'm not whining, just warning this looks suspicious to me. Dillin's art is, as someone earlier wrote about some other art... "mundane". 

 

 

If you must, okay got me. But not really, it's almost semantics. I should have taken more time in writing. Why I bother I don't know, you're clearly set on this idea that the world is out to get you, the casual Dillin buyer, the one buyer that definitely isn't buying anyway?!

The seller sets the price (of course) but the buyer sets the deal. (Is that better? I know you already know all this anyway.) Price can be anything and only requires one willing party, the deal requires two. And that's where you come in and where you walk. No deal. Big deal.

I know you want this to be a grand conspiracy theory turned fact, and maybe it is, but it's not as obvious as you think and not as obvious as the others that are definitely being run and where folks have been caught before. Is this more of a public service message you are sending to compel a buyers strike on all Dillin over $300 or are you just feeling entitled, but it's an entitlement the market isn't satisfying?

If you are right, the market will right itself just fine anyway and all this mudane, at best, art will come back down to earth. For certain I don't care either way, you do and should just be patient...right? Or are you just a tiny bit worried the market may actually be getting away from you for realz?

Edited December 7, 2018 by vodou
clarity