The Official Feb 22-24 Heritage Auction Thread 4 4

[BCarter27]

2 hours ago, delekkerste said:

Or, at least, that's what it would probably take to pry loose one of these covers from someone's collection

Yes, but when is pry loose / NFS money ever equivalent to auction numbers that creep up, agonizingly, over a month? Unless the current owner is just bored with the piece and no longer attached.

[delekkerste]

9 minutes ago, BCarter27 said:

Yes, but when is pry loose / NFS money ever equivalent to auction numbers that creep up, agonizingly, over a month? Unless the current owner is just bored with the piece and no longer attached.

Not saying they were equivalent.    In fact, this may be a good chance for someone to get a nice Stevens cover at FMV instead of paying a huge scarcity premium.  

That said, I know a fair bit about the history of this piece, both past and present.  I am confident that this one is going to end multiples higher.  If $20K is getting out of reach for anyone, they'd be better off just scratching it off their list right now. 

[Bronty]

1 hour ago, delekkerste said:

Not saying they were equivalent.    In fact, this may be a good chance for someone to get a nice Stevens cover at FMV instead of paying a huge scarcity premium.  

That said, I know a fair bit about the history of this piece, both past and present.  I am confident that this one is going to end multiples higher.  If $20K is getting out of reach for anyone, they'd be better off just scratching it off their list right now. 

I figured 7o-100.

My buttquote relies on the fact that its a very nicely rendered female, which is what you want in a stevens, and so I saw it as being as good as the rocketeer cover w/no female that Felix paid I want to say 70k for at auction, or better.   

Some relatively unimpressive panel pages are 5-10 these days so it seems hard to imagine this not doing many multiples of those sorts of pages.

 

Edited February 7, 2018 by Bronty

[heartened]

13 hours ago, delekkerste said:

Yeah, $20K is not even on the same continent as to where this one should end up.  

The supply of great Stevens GGA covers has dried up.  What would it take to pry something loose from the Estate nowadays?  Or from someone like myself, Hari, Albert, etc.?  I think a lot of collectors' thinking on Stevens GGA covers (especially from the '80s; this Vampi is from the '90s) is stuck back around 4-5 years ago, since we've barely seen anything hit the market since then.  I may be talking my book a little, but, I think a lot of this material is now in the high 5 or even low 6-figure range in the current market environment.  Or, at least, that's what it would probably take to pry loose one of these covers from someone's collection (much as no one seems to be willing to sell a Byrne X-Men cover for less than $250K, even if some of them "should" sell for $150-$175K).   

True, the best covers were 50K+ about 5 years ago.  Those have to be 70K+ at the very least now, and pushing closer to the 100K for the key covers.  They truly are some of the prettiest pieces in person, and unique in our hobby.  As Gene knows, the last cover I bought was one he alerted me to and I bought it on ebay at 55K BIN.

[Bronty]

20 hours ago, heartened said:

True, the best covers were 50K+ about 5 years ago.  Those have to be 70K+ at the very least now, and pushing closer to the 100K for the key covers.  They truly are some of the prettiest pieces in person, and unique in our hobby.  As Gene knows, the last cover I bought was one he alerted me to and I bought it on ebay at 55K BIN.

Congrats Hari!  May I ask what the cover was?

[Rick2you2]

3 hours ago, Bill C said:

IIRC, in 2009 I may have still had the opportunity to buy Valentino GOTG pages from the source at a flat $15 a pop.

And in 2009, the stock market dropped to around 6,600, while it just peaked at over 25,000 (and now it's down). So yes, 400% increases (almost) do happen.

But most things move up at a much lower rate, certainly below 20% per year. That's why I felt it was so high. Let me add, however, that the "law of small numbers" does make sense (large percentage increases on small dollar changes). 

Bottom line, however, is it's just not so hot a piece of OA.

[batman_fan]

I am wondering when the real bidding will happen.  Prices seem pretty low right now on almost everything I am watching

[malvin]

46 minutes ago, Bill C said:

Ah, I see what's going on here.

You're not used to seeing 400-500% increases in about a decade when comparing to other areas, or money making venues (like the stock market). So in that sense it seems noteworthy.

I think those that responded to your comment are talking purely about the OA world. In this world, it is a common occurrence that prices nearly a decade ago have no bearing on today. It's closer to the rule rather than the exception.

yeah, 400-500% is not surprising at all in that timespan.

Heck, for many of my pieces, if you offered 5x of the price in 2009 today, my first thought would be that you are a low baller !

Malvin

[vodou]

8 minutes ago, malvin said:

Heck, for many of my pieces, if you offered 5x of the price in 2009 today, my first thought would be that you are a low baller !

B I N GO

[Greenlake]

11 hours ago, Bill C said:

Ah, I see what's going on here.

You're not used to seeing 400-500% increases in about a decade when comparing to other areas, or money making venues (like the stock market). So in that sense it seems noteworthy.

I think those that responded to your comment are talking purely about the OA world. In this world, it is a common occurrence that prices nearly a decade ago have no bearing on today. It's closer to the rule rather than the exception.

You and others are talking about what can happen in OA versus what actually is happening in WW OA. There's no sign the 90s Byrne WW market has shifted and the WW movie success hasn't lifted all boats this much -- you can find better WW pieces for less even in this same auction. The old price was probably low but it confirms the piece is as run of the mill as it seems. Yeah, prices can change drastically in almost a decade, but I still think it's worth looking at them and trying to apply context.

Edited February 9, 2018 by Greenlake
to be less person_too_unaware_of_social_graces-ish

[Ricksneatstuff]

23 hours ago, batman_fan said:

I am wondering when the real bidding will happen.  Prices seem pretty low right now on almost everything I am watching

I remember the last Signature auction I really wanted this one and it was sitting at $7k or so when live bidding began, if I recall correctly. I was thinking I would take it for 20 or less. Well, not quite.

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/charles-schulz-peanuts-daily-comic-strip-original-art-dated-9-3-65-united-feature-syndicate-1965-/a/7169-93189.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

Edited February 10, 2018 by Ricksneatstuff

[batman_fan]

3 minutes ago, Ricksneatstuff said:

I remember the last Signature auction I really wanted this one and it was sitting at $7k or so when live bidding began, if I recall correctly. I was thinking I would take it for 20 or less. Well, not quite.

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/charles-schulz-peanuts-daily-comic-strip-original-art-dated-9-3-65-united-feature-syndicate-1965-/a/7169-93189.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

I don't understand that price at all.  It is a nice but the price is insane

[Ricksneatstuff]

Just now, batman_fan said:

I don't understand that price at all.  It is a nice but the price is insane

Others from the same auction a couple months ago

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/charles-schulz-peanuts-daily-comic-strip-original-art-dated-6-24-66-united-feature-syndicate-1966-/a/7169-93190.s?ic4=ListView-Thumbnail-071515

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/charles-schulz-peanuts-daily-comic-strip-original-art-dated-8-6-53-united-feature-syndicate-1953-/a/7169-93187.s?ic4=ListView-Thumbnail-071515

[batman_fan]

2 hours ago, Ricksneatstuff said:

Others from the same auction a couple months ago

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/charles-schulz-peanuts-daily-comic-strip-original-art-dated-6-24-66-united-feature-syndicate-1966-/a/7169-93190.s?ic4=ListView-Thumbnail-071515

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/charles-schulz-peanuts-daily-comic-strip-original-art-dated-8-6-53-united-feature-syndicate-1953-/a/7169-93187.s?ic4=ListView-Thumbnail-071515

stop showing me this stuff, you are depressing me

[Ricksneatstuff]

6 minutes ago, batman_fan said:

stop showing me this stuff, you are depressing me

Sorry, I’m sure there will be some reachable ones in this auction. 

[batman_fan]

2 minutes ago, Ricksneatstuff said:

Sorry, I’m sure there will be some reachable ones in this auction. 

I am sure the two early Sunday's will go crazy high (I would love either but outside my comfort zone I am sure) but there are several dailies I really like.

[Panelfan1]

3 hours ago, Ricksneatstuff said:

I remember the last Signature auction I really wanted this one and it was sitting at $7k or so when live bidding began, if I recall correctly. I was thinking I would take it for 20 or less. Well, not quite.

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/charles-schulz-peanuts-daily-comic-strip-original-art-dated-9-3-65-united-feature-syndicate-1965-/a/7169-93189.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

The mistake here - is one I have made too and think is common.  We use the price before live bidding (or just before closing on a fixed time auction) as a level against which we make our final bids.  The mistake is not figuring out actual value and using that. The before price doesn't mean anything.  But we give it meaning irrationally. 

[John E.]

8 minutes ago, Panelfan1 said:

The mistake here - is one I have made too and think is common.  We use the price before live bidding (or just before closing on a fixed time auction) as a level against which we make our final bids.  The mistake is not figuring out actual value and using that. The before price doesn't mean anything.  But we give it meaning irrationally. 

Preach it. I've fallen for the same trap.

[Matches_Malone]

49 minutes ago, Panelfan1 said:

The mistake here - is one I have made too and think is common.  We use the price before live bidding (or just before closing on a fixed time auction) as a level against which we make our final bids.  The mistake is not figuring out actual value and using that. The before price doesn't mean anything.  But we give it meaning irrationally. 

Is called wishful thinking 

[Skizz]

4 hours ago, Panelfan1 said:

The mistake here - is one I have made too and think is common.  We use the price before live bidding (or just before closing on a fixed time auction) as a level against which we make our final bids.  The mistake is not figuring out actual value and using that. The before price doesn't mean anything.  But we give it meaning irrationally. 

Somebody here recently suggested a simple yet excellent way to set ones expectations before an auction - check what things similar went for recently and add 20% to it and decide if you can manage that. 

Edited February 10, 2018 by Skizz