The Official Feb 22-24 Heritage Auction Thread 4 4

[Ironmandrd]

Dave Stevens Vampi at $22.7k with BP.

Reserves (if any) hit Thursday night.   Wouldn't surprise me if this has a Reserve.

 

[delekkerste]

This is the third (fourth?) HA Signature Auction in a row that doesn't have a lot in my collecting wheelhouse and I will very likely walk away with nothing.  I have been getting a number of private deals done instead - I feel like people are more receptive to offers now than at any other time that I can remember.  Why?  Because prices are high, but, they're no longer surging ahead by leaps and bounds, so I feel like sellers are less worried about leaving a lot of money on the table as they might have been a few years ago.  Also, people are simply getting older and their priorities are changing.  I can quite visibly see and feel it when talking to people these days - people who wouldn't have sold 5 years ago now seem to be a lot more willing to come to the table and talk.  Fast forward another 5 years and I guarantee you that it will be even more true.  

As an aside, I'm the current high bidder on one piece in the Heritage sale that could potentially be enough to win.  Why did I put in my max bid so far in advance?  Because, the piece in question had already gotten bid up to 1 increment below my true max bid.  According to the "you never put in your max bid until the last moment" school of thought, I should have waited to put in my max bid until the very end (or the live session) so that competitors have less time to react.  But, that argument is obviously flawed here - because the next bid increment IS my true maximum.  As such, I could have either put it in now myself, or, risked someone else topping me while I was waiting to put my bid in at the last moment.  No guarantee that I will win, but, at least I am in now with a chance, whereas waiting to bid could take that opportunity away from me in the absence of upping my max. 

Waiting until the last moment to bid is always the best strategy - IF you have an unlimited budget.  If you have a limited budget, however, I have identified another example here where bidding early is strategically the best option (in addition to the scenarios I have detailed in the past).  That obviously is not going to protect you if someone with deeper pockets is willing to bid more (either now or later).  But, it's still unquestionably the optimum strategy in this particular scenario. #gametheory #acceleratedpricediscovery

[aokartman]

As per Gene's early bid, congrats! 

It is useful and entertaining to forecast how the bidding might proceed, with the increments in mind, especially on an auction item that has strong comparables which predict fair market value.  The very next increment can place an item well outside your comfort zone!

Also consider whether your auction house performs proxy bidding for you, versus simply taking your bid on the number.  (i.e., live auctioneers)

Lastly, it is possible to submit an early off-increment bid which could work out for you in a proxy-bidding environment such as Heritage.

Best, David S. Albright

 

[vodou]

2 hours ago, delekkerste said:

Waiting until the last moment to bid is always the best strategy - IF you have an unlimited budget.  If you have a limited budget, however, I have identified another example here where bidding early is strategically the best option (in addition to the scenarios I have detailed in the past).  That obviously is not going to protect you if someone with deeper pockets is willing to bid more (either now or later).  But, it's still unquestionably the optimum strategy in this particular scenario. #gametheory #acceleratedpricediscovery

On occasion I do place max bids early, basically calling everyone else's bluff to top me and top me early (or within a bid or two live). In this manner I can eliminate pieces I don't absolutely lust for, but might otherwise be good bargains or semi-strategic positioning for down the road -at the right price only, of course. Put your right price in upfront and move on in life...especially if there is nothing you really lust for in a given sales setting. Or if there is but you need to know what your spendable money will look like on that day, the earlier the better. My days of watching a HA sale live all friggin' day on their site are: over. Talking about wasting one's precious lifespan!

[Bronty]

I find it fun to watch an hour or so.   After that it does get tedious, especially when it hits a long block of uninteresting lots

Edited February 14, 2018 by Bronty

[glenbru]

2 hours ago, delekkerste said:

This is the third (fourth?) HA Signature Auction in a row that doesn't have a lot in my collecting wheelhouse and I will very likely walk away with nothing.  I have been getting a number of private deals done instead - I feel like people are more receptive to offers now than at any other time that I can remember.  Why?  Because prices are high, but, they're no longer surging ahead by leaps and bounds, so I feel like sellers are less worried about leaving a lot of money on the table as they might have been a few years ago.  Also, people are simply getting older and their priorities are changing.  I can quite visibly see and feel it when talking to people these days - people who wouldn't have sold 5 years ago now seem to be a lot more willing to come to the table and talk.  Fast forward another 5 years and I guarantee you that it will be even more true.  

As an aside, I'm the current high bidder on one piece in the Heritage sale that could potentially be enough to win.  Why did I put in my max bid so far in advance?  Because, the piece in question had already gotten bid up to 1 increment below my true max bid.  According to the "you never put in your max bid until the last moment" school of thought, I should have waited to put in my max bid until the very end (or the live session) so that competitors have less time to react.  But, that argument is obviously flawed here - because the next bid increment IS my true maximum.  As such, I could have either put it in now myself, or, risked someone else topping me while I was waiting to put my bid in at the last moment.  No guarantee that I will win, but, at least I am in now with a chance, whereas waiting to bid could take that opportunity away from me in the absence of upping my max. 

Waiting until the last moment to bid is always the best strategy - IF you have an unlimited budget.  If you have a limited budget, however, I have identified another example here where bidding early is strategically the best option (in addition to the scenarios I have detailed in the past).  That obviously is not going to protect you if someone with deeper pockets is willing to bid more (either now or later).  But, it's still unquestionably the optimum strategy in this particular scenario. #gametheory #acceleratedpricediscovery

I think it's great you got that bid in on the ASM 100 cover, Gene.  You still may get outbid though.

[zhamlau]

I maybe on average one item a year from Heritage. I find there's lots of items I like, but few I find I have to have. My issue is that I'm a combination of not rich and very cheap, which can sometimes be challenging when it comes to HA and CL auctions.

That being said i feel the urge to competitively bid on one page and one cover. I think the page is going to go unnoticed and the cover will be sort of an afterthought for most big fish. I feel good about winning the former and very iffy on the latter.

[OrangeCrush]

On 2/7/2018 at 3:22 AM, Bronty said:

I'd guess that has a long way to go still

Agreed. Its one of the most popular pieces of Vampirella Art the last 30+ years running. I expect it will go much higher. And I hate to admit it, but this is a piece of art that I have done copy stand work on with my 8x10 camera. I have only done this a handful of times without the permission of the artist and its always for personal use and I would never try and actually sell such pieces. I actually have it in my will that all of my copy stand pieces are to be destroyed when I pass away.

While I was working for Hedrich Blessing, one of the largest photographic labs in Chicago went out of business and since Hedrich Blessing had given them a CRAPLOAD of business for 50+ years they gave everyone who worked at Hedrich Blessing first dibs on all of the equipment they were liquidating and they gave us just insane deals. 3 of us that worked at the Michigan branch of Hedrich Blessing wound up driving out to Chicago with a 15 foot Uhaul truck and we literally filled that thing to 95% capacity. I wound up getting an Omega D5XL Chasis & Baseboard with a Zone VI cold light head, A Bessler color enlarger w/ condensing head, a densitometer, a crapload of misc darkroom supplies and a Linhof Technopro Copy Stand. I wound up paying $1500 for all my purchases and the actual value was easily 10-15 times that amount. The Linhof copy stand was definitely one of the best purchases I made that day as you get just insane quality doing 4x5 or 8x10 copy work. I usually always get permission from the artist when doing copy work. For example, Michael Light gave me permission to make copies of many of his pieces from his Full Moon and 100 Suns books and John Sexton gave me permission to make prints of many of his pictures from his Listen to the Tree's book. As long as your doing it for personal use and agree not to sell them, most artists don't have a problem with it, but I have done it a couple of time without permission. I know, I'm a terrible person!

[Panelfan1]

21 hours ago, aokartman said:

As per Gene's early bid, congrats! 

It is useful and entertaining to forecast how the bidding might proceed, with the increments in mind, especially on an auction item that has strong comparables which predict fair market value.  The very next increment can place an item well outside your comfort zone!

Also consider whether your auction house performs proxy bidding for you, versus simply taking your bid on the number.  (i.e., live auctioneers)

Lastly, it is possible to submit an early off-increment bid which could work out for you in a proxy-bidding environment such as Heritage.

Best, David S. Albright

 

@delekkerste please let us know how it went after its all over. 

Personally - I dont see the point of bidding unless I believe I have a chance to win. I dont like to bid up prices for the next guy unless I am really going for it.

Wondering if anyone out there has won with a max bid that is just one increment above the previous bid when placed on a signature auction this far in advance?

Edited February 15, 2018 by Panelfan1

[delekkerste]

15 minutes ago, Panelfan1 said:

@delekkerste please let us know how it went after its all over. 

Personally - I dont see the point of bidding unless I believe I have a chance to win. I dont like to bid up prices for the next guy unless I am really going for it.

Wondering if anyone out there has won with a max bid that is just one increment above the previous bid when placed on a signature auction this far in advance?

I can't remember if I've won a piece that way or not - I want to say that I have, but, I'm not 100% sure.  In any case, we've definitely seen occasions where pieces get bid up to FMV (or more) in the Internet bidding session and then fail to get any more bids in the live session (Felix has definitely noted this phenomenon more than once over the years), so it is definitely possible.  

The piece I'm bidding on is not squarely in my wheelhouse, so I don't know the market that well.  But, based on the comps, the bid I've placed should be competitive/in the ballpark.  If it was below the comps, then, yeah, I agree - no point in bidding (or, at least, no point in mentioning it here!)

[Rick2you2]

22 hours ago, delekkerste said:

Because prices are high, but, they're no longer surging ahead by leaps and bounds, so I feel like sellers are less worried about leaving a lot of money on the table as they might have been a few years ago.  Also, people are simply getting older and their priorities are changing.  I can quite visibly see and feel it when talking to people these days - people who wouldn't have sold 5 years ago now seem to be a lot more willing to come to the table and talk.  Fast forward another 5 years and I guarantee you that it will be even more true.  

This is an illustration of why I don't think there is a long term investment future in OA. Pricing is moving to the top of the "bell curve". It will eventually top out and start moving down (in fits and starts or "overshoot and collapse").

I generally don't think it is a good idea to bid early at anything close to my max because of the "impulse purchase" urge which is part of human nature. When deadlines are approaching, and someone wants something, they tend to give it "one last shot" rather than lose a chance in the future. By giving a high number early, unless it is really, really high, it inadvertently invites bidders back to take that one last shot. And if it is something I don't care much for, I almost never bid on it. 

 

 

[Panelfan1]

16 minutes ago, Rick2you2 said:

This is an illustration of why I don't think there is a long term investment future in OA. Pricing is moving to the top of the "bell curve". It will eventually top out and start moving down (in fits and starts or "overshoot and collapse").

I generally don't think it is a good idea to bid early at anything close to my max because of the "impulse purchase" urge which is part of human nature. When deadlines are approaching, and someone wants something, they tend to give it "one last shot" rather than lose a chance in the future. By giving a high number early, unless it is really, really high, it inadvertently invites bidders back to take that one last shot. And if it is something I don't care much for, I almost never bid on it. 

 

 

So you feel the market is at a peak right now?  If so - I guess you are not a buyer - waiting for the drop?

I have no insider knowledge - but the fact that some folks are selling art privately - doesn't mean the market highs are all met.  

We are all collectors but most of us have real lives too.  Selling stuff direct outside auctions may indicate that the sellers want to keep it private or want the funds faster or think they can get a good price without paying fees.   Heck - auctions for this stuff weren't always around.  

[vodou]

45 minutes ago, Panelfan1 said:

Selling stuff direct outside auctions may indicate that the sellers want to keep it private...

Keeping the details private is definitely part of the value of non-auction transactions. Especially if you're selling for less than you publicly (or even over drinks at the bar) said you'd take in the past, cold-dead-fingers prying, and other wannabe-BSD talk of that sort.

[Rick2you2]

22 hours ago, Panelfan1 said:

So you feel the market is at a peak right now?  If so - I guess you are not a buyer - waiting for the drop?

I have no insider knowledge - but the fact that some folks are selling art privately - doesn't mean the market highs are all met.  

We are all collectors but most of us have real lives too.  Selling stuff direct outside auctions may indicate that the sellers want to keep it private or want the funds faster or think they can get a good price without paying fees.   Heck - auctions for this stuff weren't always around.  

I didn't say it was "at its peak". I said it was moving towards the top of the bell curve. A slowdown in increases is a sign of that. So is the drop in prices at the low end. 

Some OA will continue to go up; some by a lot. And, much of it will genially move up--but not much as a percent, and not forever.  In the long term (20+ years),  for reasons previously given, I still think this stuff is a lousy investment. 

And yes, I do buy things, but only with "play money".

[PhilipB2k17]

On ‎2‎/‎15‎/‎2018 at 8:16 AM, Rick2you2 said:

This is an illustration of why I don't think there is a long term investment future in OA. Pricing is moving to the top of the "bell curve". It will eventually top out and start moving down (in fits and starts or "overshoot and collapse").

I generally don't think it is a good idea to bid early at anything close to my max because of the "impulse purchase" urge which is part of human nature. When deadlines are approaching, and someone wants something, they tend to give it "one last shot" rather than lose a chance in the future. By giving a high number early, unless it is really, really high, it inadvertently invites bidders back to take that one last shot. And if it is something I don't care much for, I almost never bid on it. 

 

 

This is one of the reasons why I have set myself a $1000 per piece limit on my purchases. Also, it's one reason why I have shifted more toward modern stuff. I think the modern stuff has a future when the current fans of those books mature. But, the older stuff is going to top out, for non-special pieces anyway. Look at the GA market for run-of-the-mill panel pages compared to the Bronze Age marvel stuff right now.

There is a demographic wave effecting prices, and there is a certain amount of spillover caused by speculation.

If the OA market collapses, my family won't be stuck with pages that they can't get a fraction of what I paid for them. I enjoy them, but when I'm gone, they may not want them.

Edited February 16, 2018 by PhilipB2k17

[PhilipB2k17]

On ‎2‎/‎15‎/‎2018 at 8:39 AM, Panelfan1 said:

So you feel the market is at a peak right now?  If so - I guess you are not a buyer - waiting for the drop?

I have no insider knowledge - but the fact that some folks are selling art privately - doesn't mean the market highs are all met.  

We are all collectors but most of us have real lives too.  Selling stuff direct outside auctions may indicate that the sellers want to keep it private or want the funds faster or think they can get a good price without paying fees.   Heck - auctions for this stuff weren't always around.  

I think "avoiding fees" is a big part of it. If you have premier stuff, and you know all the big players, you don't have to go through the auction houses.

[Ironmandrd]

Privacy can work the other way too.  I know a guy in CA who put some pieces into a HA Signature Auction because he didn't want anyone to know he owned them to begin with.   There are a number of other reasons--too many to list them all.  But one is time---I for one do not have the same amount of time as I did before having kids to pursue private purchases and sales or even have public sales.  Easier to buy in an auction or infrequently put a piece into an auction (although I rarely sell I did sell three pages publicly last year). 

[jjonahjameson11]

Reserves have been revealed.

Adams Avengers page = $7K

Fraz painting = $300K

Stevens Vampi = NO reserve!

[zhamlau]

Waiting 20 years for this "just around the corner" price drop.  I would be THRILLED if we had a "catastrophic" price drop so i could actually buy and afford to keep some of the items on my list. It just keeps being on the horizon, never quite getting there. Heck I cant even get a nice little price correction of 10-20 percent.

[Ironmandrd]

27 minutes ago, jjonahjameson11 said:

Reserves have been revealed.

Adams Avengers page = $7K

Fraz painting = $300K

Stevens Vampi = NO reserve!

Reasonable reserve on that Adams Avengers page.