STAR WARS : Episode IX December 20, 2019 6 6

[Get Marwood & I]

10 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said:

Rise of Skywatcher has only been out 2.5 days. The movie is also a better time at the movies than the increasingly unreliable Rotten Potatoes score would have us believe. I think good word of mouth, repeat viewings, and the normal January slate of movie releases pushes Star Wars Nine over a billion.

I agree. Despite not liking it overall I will go and see it again at the cinema. The bits I liked I really liked and I'd like to see if I change my mind at all on any of it. I have a habit of liking things more second or third time around. 

I think the scene where Rey leaps over Ren's ship in the desert is just superb. And the resulting force tussle trying to stop the ship departing was excellent. I could watch scenes like that all day. It's odd that the power to hold a gazillion ton departing space ship in mid air deserts Rey when she needs to levitate out of a sand pit five minutes later of course but there you go. The inconsistent use of her powers just to allow a plot device got a little wearing. Why skim across the waves when you could just as easily levitate?

And I don't see myself ever warming to the also rans as I call them who add little to anything. What is the point of Finn? But I do like Rey and I like Ren. I think there was a fabulous trilogy about their story hiding somewhere but it never really took flight. 

[tv horror]

5 minutes ago, Get Marwood & I said:

I have a habit of liking things more second or third time around. 

But not the new Doctor!

[Get Marwood & I]

1 minute ago, tv horror said:

But not the new Doctor!

Indeed. If they make another Star Wars film I'd like Rey to be played by Arnold Schwarzenegger. It's only fair. 

[drotto]

28 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said:

Rise of Skywatcher has only been out 2.5 days. The movie is also a better time at the movies than the increasingly unreliable Rotten Potatoes score would have us believe. I think good word of mouth, repeat viewings, and the normal January slate of movie releases pushes Star Wars Nine over a billion.

But what really matters long term is the regular movie fans, not the more hard core like us.  The hard core fans have seen the film already, and a fair percentage will see it again.  The "normies " I am not sure sure about.  I have talked to several friends, who are not hardcore fans, and they have all responded they thought the movie was OK.

 

So how does that translate? This movie will cross 1 billion more than likely, but it seems like it will fall short of TLJ.

[Prince Namor]

18 hours ago, fantastic_four said:

Been hearing this same mess for 20 years now ever since Phantom Menace.

Exactly. As if George Lucas didn't have a generic formula he consistently repeated and co-ordinated it with toy sales. It's been a money grab since they started offering it with the success of the original.

[paperheart]

$176MM US, $375MM WW; $1.1BB max I'd guess

[mattn792]

1 hour ago, paperheart said:

$179MM, a TLJ multiple of 2.8x gets it to $500MM; who would have bet Joker would outgross Star Wars WW?

I think their first critical mistake was announcing in advance that they were (arbitrarily) ending at Episode IX .  A lot of folks out there probably lost interest at that point as there was no longer any reason to get invested in the new cast.  

Edited December 22, 2019 by mattn792
Outsideaffiliatelinks not allowed yo!

[@therealsilvermane]

7 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

I think their first critical mistake was announcing in advance that they were (arbitrarily) ending at Episode IX .  A lot of folks out there probably lost interest at that point as there was no longer any reason to get invested in the new cast.  

Disagree. Everyone knows this is the final chapter of a Trilogy. The Last Jedi and a low RT score are 100% responsible for the initial muted enthusiasm for Rise of the Last Skywalker.  But I think as the weeks progress, this movie will have stronger legs than some think.

[mattn792]

2 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said:

Disagree. Everyone knows this is the final chapter of a Trilogy. The Last Jedi and a low RT score are 100% responsible for the initial muted enthusiasm for Rise of the Last Skywalker.  But I think as the weeks progress, this movie will have stronger legs than some think.

I doubt that, though I give the decision making process of the movie going public more credit than I probably should.  I think one thing we can all agree on though - they've completely botched this whole process.  

[paperheart]

10 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

I doubt that, though I give the decision making process of the movie going public more credit than I probably should.  I think one thing we can all agree on though - they've completely botched this whole process.  

the B+ Cinemascore (worst in the series) doesn't exactly argue for a groundswell of public support; this one will do $1BB less than TFA (that's a big number)

[mattn792]

1 minute ago, paperheart said:

the B+ Cinemascore (worst in the series) doesn't exactly argue for a groundswell of public support; this one will do $1BB less than TFA (that's a big number)

How insane is that?  TFA had Star Wars set up to rival Marvel's success, if not run roughshod over it.  Instead...Days of Our Lives, followed by (haven't seen it yet, but what seems to be) a greatest hits album?  

[@therealsilvermane]

13 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

I doubt that, though I give the decision making process of the movie going public more credit than I probably should.  I think one thing we can all agree on though - they've completely botched this whole process.  

I don’t know. I think if ROS ends up making over a billion than Disney will be happy no matter what the process was whatever that is. Nobody’s perfect, except Marvel Studios.

[drotto]

1 minute ago, paperheart said:

the B+ Cinemascore (worst in the series) doesn't exactly argue for a groundswell of public support; this one will do $1BB less than TFA (that's a big number)

This is a big number and would be amazing for any film that was not this film.  Box Office Mojo is now officially estimating $175.5 million.  That is a massive drop that can not be ignored.  This movie should clear 1 billion, but may struggle to do so.

[mattn792]

1 minute ago, @therealsilvermane said:

I don’t know. I think if ROS ends up making over a billion than Disney will be happy no matter what the process was whatever that is. Nobody’s perfect, except Marvel Studios.

10 figures is still 10 figures, for sure.  

[drotto]

7 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said:

I don’t know. I think if ROS ends up making over a billion than Disney will be happy no matter what the process was whatever that is. Nobody’s perfect, except Marvel Studios.

I think the industry and Disney will look at 1 billion as a failure for this movie.  TFA was over 2 billion.  TLJ was 1.3 billions.  They pumped this up and pushed it similar to how Disney did with Endgame that did 2.8 billion.  I think Disney internally was hoping for around 1.5 billion (it could shock me still and get there), giving the Star Wars name and the end of the story and era hype.  Batman v. Superman made $872 million, again a massive number and that movie was viewed as a failure.  ROS risks being viewed the same way.  It  did great, but left so much on the table in unrealized returns.

Edited December 22, 2019 by drotto

[N e r V]

I think the budget on the movie is said to be closer to the 300 million mark not including advertising,etc. so since a movie now needs to more than double it’s costs to just break even  I think the quotes in the industry about a billion dollar final gross would be very disappointing to Disney. Especially since the last 2 were 2 billion and 1.3 billion grosses.

I haven’t seen it yet but based on my friends early reactions to it I expect not to love or hate it. Most people I know are saying it’s just OK which is line with the exit polling so far at B+.

Its over and done now either way so we’ll see where Disney takes it next. I’m just glad I reserved my seat with a theatre that serves alcohol now...

[rogue14]

Got it. Thanks for he feedback. Guess it’s different for everything. 

[Bosco685]

Since this estimated result is on the much lower end of adjusted projects (tomorrow's real studio numbers will be telling), this is not the way to close out the current run.

Not sure about the $300M budget just yet. The reporting on this is between $275M to $300M. Nothing declared yet from Box Office Mojo.

 

[Bosco685]

3 hours ago, @therealsilvermane said:

I don’t know. I think if ROS ends up making over a billion than Disney will be happy no matter what the process was whatever that is. Nobody’s perfect, except Marvel Studios.

After Joss Whedon helped the MCU standardize its approach, then the huge hits came along. Prior to this, The Incredible Hulk failed massively, and Captain America: The First Avengers barely broke even.

Give some credit to the franchise maturing over time versus ignoring how even the MCU had to learn through some not-perfect experiences.

[Bosco685]

Original estimates were in the $205M range.

‘Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker’ Seeing $205M+ Opening

Quote

We’ve been hearing for quite some time from exhibitors and distribution sources that advance ticket sales are strong, but not overly robust for Disney/Lucasfilm’s finale Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, meaning in the way that they were for 2015’s Force Awakens ($247.9M) and 2017’s Last Jedi ($220M). Hence, early AM estimates for the J.J. Abrams movie hitting tracking, when averaged are at $205M given the comparative titles provided

But at least the film achieved the adjusted opening estimates. But on the lower end right now.

'Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker' Box Office Tracking for $175M-$200M U.S. Bow

Quote

Directed by J.J. Abrams, the December tentpole is on course to open to at least $175 million to $200 million in its domestic debut over the Dec. 20-22 weekend, on par with early forecasts for Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Star Wars: The Force Awakens.