STAR WARS : Episode IX December 20, 2019 6 6

[@therealsilvermane]

55 minutes ago, bane said:

This. Having seen Return of the Jedi several times the only parts of the movie I enjoy is Yoda's send off, the Battle of Endor (only the space parts) and Luke/Vader/Palpatine. The rest of it is utterly forgettable. Ford does his best to "ham" it up, the whole Jabba's palace scene always bored me to tears and meeting the Ewoks as Gatsby pointed out, grinds the film to a halt.

You speak heresy and should have your Star Wars fan membership card taken away. 

[paperheart]

cashing out, started shorting this pig at $560 and down to $540.  Didn't think it would get this bad, Day 21 down 50% vs TLJ.

https://www.hsx.com/security/view/STAR9

[Bosco685]

Wow! Even at this point in time (Day 21), Rise of Skywalker is only 1.7% ahead of its combined total.

[Bosco685]

[Bosco685]

Turns out Day 21 domestic box office results were slightly lower than originally reported. The lowest Day 21 results of the four films.

But at least the ever-steady RT audience score is rock-solid 86%.

[@therealsilvermane]

26 minutes ago, Bosco685 said:

Turns out Day 21 domestic box office results were slightly lower than originally reported. The lowest Day 21 results of the four films.

But at least the ever-steady RT audience score is rock-solid 86%.

That's because on average, most theater goers that bother to fill out these silly RT score cards have already seen the movie and scored and those few outliers that see it late and score it late actually like the movie because it's a decent Star Wars flick. But we're to believe that Rotten TOmato is still taking reviews for the movie nearly four weeks out? Are they finding them under a rock?

[drotto]

37 minutes ago, Bosco685 said:

Turns out Day 21 domestic box office results were slightly lower than originally reported. The lowest Day 21 results of the four films.

But at least the ever-steady RT audience score is rock-solid 86%.

Looks like R1 has better legs the ROS.  Going to be very close overall box office between the two. Hitting TLJ is a lost cause now. My bet is it will slip below R1.

[godzilla43]

Just saw this (because I had extra tickets that needed to be used) and I liked it. I think the hate for this is people are trying to make sense of things happening in this film( some kinda Star wars rules..) but it is more like Akira Toriyama stuff. So Palpatine or sith can create massive space vessel via force/magic or whatever.. well who cares it looks cool. Also is it more insane than the force, force heal, sith lighting or going in to light speed or in this light speed jumping? :D 

[Bosco685]

28 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said:

That's because on average, most theater goers that bother to fill out these silly RT score cards have already seen the movie and scored and those few outliers that see it late and score it late actually like the movie because it's a decent Star Wars flick. But we're to believe that Rotten TOmato is still taking reviews for the movie nearly four weeks out? Are they finding them under a rock?

 That's the CinemaScore, movie expert guy. 

[@therealsilvermane]

17 minutes ago, drotto said:

Looks like R1 has better legs the ROS.  Going to be very close overall box office between the two. Hitting TLJ is a lost cause now. My bet is it will slip below R1.

Day 21 for Rogue One was also the week of New Years and kids were still on Christmas vacation. ROS was released a week after that movie. The going trend it seems is for these holiday release Star Wars movies to have a larger drop after kids go back to school. That matters when accounting for families seeing these movies.

[Bosco685]

2 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said:

Day 21 for Rogue One was also the week of New Years and kids were still on Christmas vacation. ROS was released a week after that movie. The going trend it seems is for these holiday release Star Wars movies to have a larger drop after kids go back to school. That matters when accounting for families seeing these movies.

And then....and then Bobby had an ice cream on that day and now Bobby doesn't have an ice cream on this Day 21. And Billy had a snow cone, but now...not so much.

[@therealsilvermane]

1 minute ago, Bosco685 said:

And then....and then Bobby had an ice cream on that day and now Bobby doesn't have an ice cream on this Day 21. And Billy had a snow cone, but now...not so much.

On January 5th, Day 21 of Rogue One, little Bobby was using his last day or so of Xmas vacation to see Rogue One with his nerdy Force-sensitive parents and maybe a few friends. On January 9th, Day 21 of Skywalker Rising, Bobby and his friends  were all in school and doing homework and the parents were at work. True story.

[Bosco685]

2 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said:

On January 5th, Day 21 of Rogue One, little Bobby was using his last day or so of Xmas vacation to see Rogue One with his nerdy Force-sensitive parents and maybe a few friends. On January 9th, Day 21 of Skywalker Rising, Bobby and his friends  were all in school and doing homework and the parents were at work. True story.

You know what they said to each other on 2020, Day 21?

'Let's skip this one, and save our money for the Baskin-Robbins Matterhorn!'

True story. They're still trying to break through that monster of a treat.

[paperheart]

45 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said:

Day 21 for Rogue One was also the week of New Years and kids were still on Christmas vacation. ROS was released a week after that movie. The going trend it seems is for these holiday release Star Wars movies to have a larger drop after kids go back to school. That matters when accounting for families seeing these movies.

still has a shot at 1.5BB if they start counting in pesos

[Bosco685]

So, since a few feel there is statistical disingenuousness because they are the protectors of Hollywood numbers...

If we assume 12/25 to 1/1 are key holiday breaks for many people, then all four films had a good pre-holiday word-of-mouth marketing window by 5-10 days in advance. Just in the case of ROS, that WOM campaign was mixed and came with the lowest CinemaScore of the bunch. And the lowest RT Critic Score. And the lowest Metacritic Critic Score. If anything, The Last Jedi should have taken a bigger hit due to audience negative reactions.

@Gatsby77 says any film with a B+ score is really bad off because these films mainly get A- or better more than most. Right? I think you have said more than once B+ is not good.

On 3/9/2019 at 4:02 PM, Gatsby77 said:

I actually take the opposite view on this.

Few people seem to understand that 80%+ of movies receive an A- or higher grade from Cinemascore.

So to me what it really means is that a movie that receives a B+, let alone a B, actually _really_ sucks.

Examples:

B+: Spider-Man 3, Amazing Spider-Man 2, Suicide Squad, Blade Trinity, Justice League, John Carter

B: BvS, Ghost Rider, Indiana Jones & the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

B-: Punisher War Zone, The Hulk, Police Academy 6

C+: Batman & Robin, Jonah Hex, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, The Predator, Spawn

C: Saw V, Aliens v Predator: Requiem

C-: Jaws The Revenge

 

Huh. How - well - disingenuous.

So in a way before that ROS B+ started spreading too wide, it also had the shortest WOM window which then would avoid too much time for potential movie-goers to second-guess seeing the film due to the mixed reactions from disappointed critics and hardcore fans. The film that should have taken a beating because too long of a WOM window was TLJ once those audience reactions (real or otherwise) started popping up.

Stats - it really does work when you utilize data visualization in an even-handed way, with some thoughtful analysis as well. 

Edited January 11, 2020 by Bosco685

[Gatsby77]

1 hour ago, Bosco685 said:

So, since a few feel there is statistical disingenuousness because they are the protectors of Hollywood numbers...

If we assume 12/25 to 1/1 are key holiday breaks for many people, then all four films had a good pre-holiday word-of-mouth marketing window by 5-10 days in advance. Just in the case of ROS, that WOM campaign was mixed and came with the lowest CinemaScore of the bunch. And the lowest RT Critic Score. And the lowest Metacritic Critic Score. If anything, The Last Jedi should have taken a bigger hit due to audience negative reactions.

@Gatsby77 says any film with a B+ score is really bad off because these films mainly get A- or better more than most. Right? I think you have said more than once B+ is not good.

Huh. How - well - disingenuous.

So in a way before that ROS B+ started spreading too wide, it also had the shortest WOM window which then would avoid too much time for potential movie-goers to second-guess seeing the film due to the mixed reactions from disappointed critics and hardcore fans. The film that should have taken a beating because too long of a WOM window was TLJ once those audience reactions (real or otherwise) started popping up.

Stats - it really does work when you utilize data visualization in an even-handed way, with some thoughtful analysis as well. 

Oooh...

Bait. Tasty tasty bait.

Good analysis.

And you're right - a B+ Cinemascore usually means the film sucks donkey toes.

And - as I said - in this case, I agree. RoS deserves a B+. It was weak sauce. Far worse than The Last Jedi.

Where your analysis is wrong is in the supposed negative WOM for The Last Jedi. 

Unlike RoS, it received an "A" Cinemascore. Audiences leaving the theater and rating it in real time *really liked it,* as did I.

Far from "getting a beating" it continued to do solid business, ultimately surpassing $1.3 billion.

Outside of the 40-something comics nerds on this board, the general public *liked* The Last Jedi -- it wasn't a mere retread of A New Hope like The Force Awakens, and it actually deigned to *take risks* and move away from the "only Skywalkers are special" narrative.

So...why the confusion that RoS - which audiences didn't like nearly as much, is lagging the other films? It makes perfect sense -- because it's merely mediocre.

Have you seen it yet? What did you think? Where would you rank it among the other 8 films? 

 

[drotto]

Just noticed (I am slow on this), that the magical 86% ROS audience score is exactly the same as TFA an R1 score.  Makes it seem even odder. 

[@therealsilvermane]

20 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

Oooh...

Bait. Tasty tasty bait.

Good analysis.

And you're right - a B+ Cinemascore usually means the film sucks donkey toes.

And - as I said - in this case, I agree. RoS deserves a B+. It was weak sauce. Far worse than The Last Jedi.

Where your analysis is wrong is in the supposed negative WOM for The Last Jedi. 

Unlike RoS, it received an "A" Cinemascore. Audiences leaving the theater and rating it in real time *really liked it,* as did I.

Far from "getting a beating" it continued to do solid business, ultimately surpassing $1.3 billion.

Outside of the 40-something comics nerds on this board, the general public *liked* The Last Jedi -- it wasn't a mere retread of A New Hope like The Force Awakens, and it actually deigned to *take risks* and move away from the "only Skywalkers are special" narrative.

So...why the confusion that RoS - which audiences didn't like nearly as much, is lagging the other films? It makes perfect sense -- because it's merely mediocre.

Have you seen it yet? What did you think? Where would you rank it among the other 8 films? 

 

You’re wrong about audience reaction to The Last Jedi. That movie was as divisive a movie as there’s ever been. And dislike for the movie wasn’t limited to 40 year-old white dudes on this board. 
At the center of excitement over this new SW trilogy was the return of Luke Skywalker. It was great seeing Leila, Han, and Chewie but we all really wanted to see Luke. That last shot in FA was the ultimate last panel cameo app. teaser.

However, when Luke tosses his light saber over his shoulder at the start of LJ, that essentially ruined the remaining two hours of the movie and maybe the rest of the trilogy for at least half of the movie’s audience. Sure, some folks, such as kids, probably didn’t care that this movie was telling us that Luke, the hero of a generation, had become a cowardly milk-chugging jerk, but a lot of people did care and weren’t happy about it. Star Wars fandom isn’t limited to a hardcore few. It’s mainstream. Sure, some liked LJ, but the mass hatred/dislike for the movie was real.

And you’re also wrong about general audience reaction to Rise of Skywalker.  Try asking a lot of people who weren’t passionate about LJ’s deconstructionist story elements how they felt about ROS and they’ll tell you they liked it. Unlike Last Jedi, ROS wasn’t depressing and it redeemed Luke Skywalker as a hero. Just because you feel a certain way doesn’t mean everybody feels that way, too. 

[Bosco685]

55 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

Oooh...

Bait. Tasty tasty bait.

Good analysis.

And you're right - a B+ Cinemascore usually means the film sucks donkey toes.

And - as I said - in this case, I agree. RoS deserves a B+. It was weak sauce. Far worse than The Last Jedi.

Where your analysis is wrong is in the supposed negative WOM for The Last Jedi. 

Unlike RoS, it received an "A" Cinemascore. Audiences leaving the theater and rating it in real time *really liked it,* as did I.

Far from "getting a beating" it continued to do solid business, ultimately surpassing $1.3 billion.

Outside of the 40-something comics nerds on this board, the general public *liked* The Last Jedi -- it wasn't a mere retread of A New Hope like The Force Awakens, and it actually deigned to *take risks* and move away from the "only Skywalkers are special" narrative.

So...why the confusion that RoS - which audiences didn't like nearly as much, is lagging the other films? It makes perfect sense -- because it's merely mediocre.

Have you seen it yet? What did you think? Where would you rank it among the other 8 films? 

 

Bait? Why, I'm just concerned with those that are disingenuous with their statistical analysis.

Meanwhile, my analysis is spot-on and logical. With clear data and assumptions. 

Have I seen ROS? After the experience of TLJ I held back - and for all the right reasons after the reviews of critics I am very comfortable with their assessments confirming my concerns. So this will be a video release for me.

But the data, market reactions and patterns are what you need to read this. Along with factoring in your 'proven rule' B+ CinemaScore results confirms a film sucks. Right?

[Bosco685]

15 minutes ago, drotto said:

Just noticed (I am slow on this), that the magical 86% ROS audience score is exactly the same as TFA an R1 score.  Makes it seem even odder. 

It's called 'Disney Magic' for a reason.