Incredible Hulk #181 - is it *that* red-hot? 17 17

[jsilverjanet]

I have a 6.5 listed on ebay. The highest offer I received before sending to auction was $2800. a 6.5 ended last night that in my opinion got a gift grade (missing a piece top right hand corner) and was cream pages. The book ended at $2754.

:rollingthedice:

 

[valiantman]

On 8/4/2018 at 8:02 PM, RockMyAmadeus said:

There's your next project GH: Graphs of the rates of submission since the census started.

I've done something like this in the past.  If I remember correctly, there was a "surprise flow" of submissions around the time that pressing became a standard practice so that caused two outcomes:

1) The rate of submission didn't really fall, since pressing was making up for any declining supply

2) If pressing was making up for declining supply, then unreported resubmits might be higher than 2-5%, especially for key issues.

[MGsimba77]

5 hours ago, jsilverjanet said:

I have a 6.5 listed on ebay. The highest offer I received before sending to auction was $2800. a 6.5 ended last night that in my opinion got a gift grade (missing a piece top right hand corner) and was cream pages. The book ended at $2754.

:rollingthedice:

 

A 65 in cream to ow pages wouldn't have had a prayer of auctioning near that at the start of this year. I believe the last cream/ow 6.5 went for ~1300 last Dec if I'm not mistaken

Edited August 6, 2018 by MGsimba77
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[valiantman]

5 hours ago, valiantman said:

On 8/4/2018 at 8:02 PM, RockMyAmadeus said:

There's your next project GH: Graphs of the rates of submission since the census started.

I've done something like this in the past.  If I remember correctly, there was a "surprise flow" of submissions around the time that pressing became a standard practice so that caused two outcomes:

1) The rate of submission didn't really fall, since pressing was making up for any declining supply

2) If pressing was making up for declining supply, then unreported resubmits might be higher than 2-5%, especially for key issues.

There's a clear reflection of the "rise of pressing" (alternatively, the "lowering of grading standards") in the 2009-2012 timeframe, but there's definitely a dropoff in the average quality of books being sent to CGC since.  The recent increase in prices would predict more copies of low grades to be submitted to CGC, but the recent increase in prices wasn't happening in 2014-2017 as the average grade was falling.

[lou_fine]

On 8/6/2018 at 1:18 PM, valiantman said:

but there's definitely a dropoff in the average quality of books being sent to CGC since.  The recent increase in prices would predict more copies of low grades to be submitted to CGC,

From my point of view, this drop off in the average condition level of the books being submitted is a healthy sign for a comic book as it indicates a broadening of strength in the valuation of the underlying book itself across the entire condition grading spectrum.  

Unlike most Modern or non-key common CA books where the average condition grading levels seems to be in the uber high grades, which to me indicates that the underlying comic book itself doesn't actually have much value and what's really being paid for is primarily just for transitory value of the CGC label itself.  

[valiantman]

3 hours ago, lou_fine said:

From my point of view, this drop off in the average condition level of the books being submitted is a healthy sign for a comic book as it indicates a broadening of strength in the valuation of the underlying book itself across the entire condition grading spectrum.  

Unlike most Modern or non-key common CA books where the average condition grading levels seems to be in the uber high grades, which to me indicates that the underlying comic book itself doesn't actually have much value and what's really being paid for is primarily just for transitory value of the CGC label itself.  

Yes, I like to use books that have always been "slab-worthy" in all grades (such as AF15) as a good measure for whether the supply of raw books is changing/dwindling.  Hulk 181 hasn't always been "slab-worthy" for all grades, so the average grade falling could just be more 2.0s and 3.0s.  To overcome that possibility, it's also useful to see what something like the 100th best or 200th best copy being submitted has been annually.  Those higher grades are also falling, so it's definitely looking more like dwindling supply of raws and perhaps a stable or dwindling press-and-resubmit number as well.

[kimik]

14 hours ago, valiantman said:

Yes, I like to use books that have always been "slab-worthy" in all grades (such as AF15) as a good measure for whether the supply of raw books is changing/dwindling.  Hulk 181 hasn't always been "slab-worthy" for all grades, so the average grade falling could just be more 2.0s and 3.0s.  To overcome that possibility, it's also useful to see what something like the 100th best or 200th best copy being submitted has been annually.  Those higher grades are also falling, so it's definitely looking more like dwindling supply of raws and perhaps a stable or dwindling press-and-resubmit number as well.

It would be better to describe it as a dwindling number of collectors who are interested in selling and/or slabbing their raw copies that are neatly tucked away in mylars. There are a ton of raw copies still out there. As long as prices keep running up, there is less incentive for the owners to part with them. For example, I was talking with a collector friend that buys books from me at the LCS today. He is starting to part with the dozen raw copies he accumulated over the years to buy other books, selling the ones missing the MVS or that are low grade. He is keeping the HG copies to capture future price gains. He said the first two or three copies cost $5 apiece (still in the old bags) and the last purchase of his highest graded copy was a whopping $75. 

Edited August 9, 2018 by kimik

[JTLarsen]

9 hours ago, kimik said:

It would be better to describe it as a dwindling number of collectors who are interested in selling and/or slabbing their raw copies that are neatly tucked away in mylars. There are a ton of raw copies still out there. As long as prices keep running up, there is less incentive for the owners to part with them. For example, I was talking with a collector friend that buys books from me at the LCS today. He is starting to part with the dozen raw copies he accumulated over the years to buy other books. He said the first two or three copies cost $5 apiece (still in the old bags) and the last purchase of his highest graded copy was a whopping $75. 

As evidenced by the behavior of your friend in the anecdote you yourself describe, rising prices are actually MORE incentive for owners to part with them. That's, like, how it works.

[kimik]

1 hour ago, JTLarsen said:

As evidenced by the behavior of your friend in the anecdote you yourself describe, rising prices are actually MORE incentive for owners to part with them. That's, like, how it works.

Sorry, I deleted part of my post by mistake. I paraphrased it back in. He is keeping the HG copies but selling the low grade and incomplete (no MVS) copies now to buy other books. There are a ton of HG copies out there, but those will be the ones that collectors hold onto until the bitter end. They will dump their undercopies first.

[ComicConnoisseur]

On 1/23/2018 at 12:52 PM, ComicConnoisseur said:

The facts say Incredible Hulk #181 has doubled in price since 2013 in any grade. I would suggest to pick up up a price guide from 5 years ago and compare it to one now or go on Heritage Auctions and look at the selling prices for Hulk #181 5 years ago as compared to now.

The numbers don't lie and support that Hulk #181s have projected upward these last 5 years.

The Hulk 181s have doubled in price in any grade before Disney got back the rights. I can only imagine the prices 5 years from now will continue upward mobility.

Investing in Hulk#181s has been a better bet than putting the same amount of money in a bank savings account these last 5 years with miniscule interest rates. 

Really it is a no brainer to try to pick up a few Hulk #181s now in any condition because the price will be higher later in 5 years.

I bet some people 5 years ago wished they got in on AF#15 ,but hesitated because they thought the bubble was going to burst or there will be a market correction.

In my opinion low-grade-mid-grade Hulk #181s are safe bets for going up.

Other than AF#15 I can't think of a safer bet in post-1961 comics.

 

Looks like my advice was spot on in January. I hope no one still thnks Hulk #181s are going back down, 

Think of Action 1, Detective 27 and AF 15.

Hulk #181 is a bonafide blue chip.

 

Edited August 11, 2018 by ComicConnoisseur

[Turb0wned]

9 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Looks like my advice was spot on in January. I hope no one still thnks Hulk #181s are going back down, 

Think of Action 1, Detective 27 and AF 15.

Hulk #181 is a bonafide blue chip.

 

I think FF1 has more upside than 1818 personally. 

[Jaydogrules]

On 8/9/2018 at 8:33 AM, kimik said:

Sorry, I deleted part of my post by mistake. I paraphrased it back in. He is keeping the HG copies but selling the low grade and incomplete (no MVS) copies now to buy other books. There are a ton of HG copies out there, but those will be the ones that collectors hold onto until the bitter end. They will dump their undercopies first.

I can't get behind this.  The high grade copies are usually the first and most often to be submitted.  And with well over 10,000 graded copies now, there's no reason to believe that however many copies are left out there, that the uber high grade ones (9.4-9.8) represent anything more (and more likely less) than the ~8% that is reflected on the census.  

-J.

Edited August 12, 2018 by Jaydogrules

[lou_fine]

15 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

On 8/9/2018 at 8:33 AM, kimik said:

Sorry, I deleted part of my post by mistake. I paraphrased it back in. He is keeping the HG copies but selling the low grade and incomplete (no MVS) copies now to buy other books. There are a ton of HG copies out there, but those will be the ones that collectors hold onto until the bitter end. They will dump their undercopies first.

I can't get behind this.  The high grade copies are usually the first and most often to be submitted.  And with well over 10,000 graded copies now, there's no reason to believe that however many copies are left out there, that the uber high grade ones (9.4-9.8) represent anything more (and more likely less) than what is reflected on the census.  

-J.

I believe it really depends on the comic book you are talking about as you appear to be talking in more general terms while the original poster is talking about a specific book.

Yes, for recent common books which are plentiful in all grades except for the uber HG's, collectors will only submit the HG copies since it's a money loser to submit anything that is not in high grade.  Especially in the case of books that have no true underlying value of its own and the only real value comes solely from the fact that it has a 9.8 graded label attached to it.  

The original poster, on the other hand, is talking about a specific book (namely Hulk 181) which is definitely starting to take on the characteristics of a true vintage collectible comic book.  By this, I mean that it not only has true value in all condition levels across the entire grading spectrum, but copies in some of the non-high grades more affordable condition levels are actually increasing at a faster rate than the uber HG copies.  The value of these books are coming from the underlying book itself, as opposed to only that number in the top left hand corner and only if it's past a certain point.

And in the original poster's case, if he does have say 5 copies of this truly vintage collectible book, it does make the most sense by starting off with selling the lowest graded copy and saving the highest graded copy for the end.  Especially since books like this tends to go up in value over time as additional copies (in all grades) come into the market to not only reinforced, but also to push the value of all copies further up.   This is completely different from say the hot MA variant books which tends to go down in value as more copies come to market.  For these types of books, you definitely would send in your highest graded copy and sell them off first before the bubble bursts on them. 

[MGsimba77]

8500 a few days ago for a 9.4... Heritage just auctioned another 9.4 for 8100. Most of these auctions are not yielding the high sales. Looks like the best offer listings are more likely to yield better results

Edited August 13, 2018 by MGsimba77
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[jsilverjanet]

Is the Heritage $8100 include buyers premium?

[lou_fine]

19 minutes ago, jsilverjanet said:

Is the Heritage $8100 include buyers premium?

I assume he's talking about the one that sold yesterday and it does include the Heritage BP:

https://comics.ha.com/itm/bronze-age-1970-1979-/the-incredible-hulk-181-marvel-1974-cgc-nm-94-white-pages/a/121832-12592.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

[MGsimba77]

51 minutes ago, jsilverjanet said:

Is the Heritage $8100 include buyers premium?

Yes. The last few bids were non internet bids placed late as hell last night. It was sitting at 7200 forever! 

[lou_fine]

6 minutes ago, MGsimba77 said:

59 minutes ago, jsilverjanet said:

Is the Heritage $8100 include buyers premium?

Yes. The last few bids were non internet bids placed late as hell last night. It was sitting at 7200 forever! 

Yes, and it looks like both of the CGC 9.6 graded copies sold for over $10K in their Signature Auction the previous week.  

Looks like the lower profile one with White pages sold for $600 more than the higher profile that the OW/W copy that sold on Thursday.  

Where's jaydog when we need him to figure out this anomaly for us. 

[jsilverjanet]

Buyer of my 6.5 at $2800 still hasn’t paid 

[lou_fine]

6 minutes ago, jsilverjanet said:

Buyer of my 6.5 at $2800 still hasn’t paid 

Hmmmm......looks like it's been a whole week already.  

Let's hope you get the money in the end.