Incredible Hulk #181 - is it *that* red-hot? 17 17

[szav]

5 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

 

In all seriousness though, I think its an extreme reach to believe that one person is hoarding all the 9.8 copies, and somehow a rising tide of FOMO has managed to lift copies in all grades to new heights.  This price spike phenomenon isn't exclusive to 181, its happened with other keys in the past.   

You wouldn’t need all of them or even close to all of them... just enough of the ones that have been getting flipped around.

Dunno what percentage of the 9.8s are locked up in PCs, and you’d probably make more money by having hoarded the innumerable low grade copies and selling those off.

Seems like it would be pretty easy for someone with the resources and patience.  I don’t think it’s a tin foil hat worthy suspicion, and it borders on naïveté to think no one would dare manipulate a market like this.

Ive heard reference to some historical effeorts of a few people to corner the market on a few SA keys in the 80s or 90s ... but I don’t recall the details.  Maybe someone who knows about that could give a few details on the story.

[mattn792]

1 minute ago, szavisca said:

You wouldn’t need all of them or even close to all of them... just enough of the ones that have been getting flipped around.

Dunno what percentage of the 9.8s are locked up in PCs, and you’d probably make more money by having hoarded the innumerable low grade copies and selling those off.

Seems like it would be pretty easy for someone with the resources and patience.  I don’t think it’s a tin foil hat worthy suspicion, and it borders on naïveté to think no one would dare manipulate a market like this.

Ive heard reference to some historical effeorts of a few people to corner the market on a few SA keys in the 80s or 90s ... but I don’t recall the details.  Maybe someone who knows about that could give a few details on the story.

With a GA, maaaayyybeee an SA book, it might be possible, but there's simply too many 181s out there for someone to effectively corner the market on them.

[ADAMANTIUM]

2 hours ago, mattn792 said:

 

In all seriousness though, I think its an extreme reach to believe that one person is hoarding all the 9.8 copies, and somehow a rising tide of FOMO has managed to lift copies in all grades to new heights.  This price spike phenomenon isn't exclusive to 181, its happened with other keys in the past.   

We've had several boardies old and new post their newest acquisitions of #181 in 9.8 right here on these boards. I remember at least 3 different boardies in the last year, hard to believe that there were too many more 9.8 sales other than those.....   

Edited January 11, 2019 by ADAMANTIUM
added "different"...that's important to add

[MGsimba77]

4 hours ago, delekkerste said:

 

Just playing devil's advocate here, but, maybe the character will never be as popular again after Hugh Jackman made it his own and became synonymous with the character in the minds of everyone from age 8 to 108?   

What are the chances that Marvel will cast someone else to succeed Jackman that is going to be bigger and better in the role?  Isn't there a real risk that they could not get it right? Not saying it's either good or bad, but, what if they made X-23 the next Wolverine?  Would that have people scrambling to pay up even more for Hulk #181, or, might they be clamoring for NYX #3 or All-New Wolverine #1 instead?  I don't follow comics enough to know, but, has the introduction of Spider-Gwen and related characters resulted in a big boost for ASM #31 (beyond all the other reasons why it should have gone up) or did it just create demand/speculation for the modern Spider-Gwen first appearance?  Asking for a friend who owns the first Gwen Stacy appearance original art from ASM #31.   

In any case, who is still buying Hulk #181 because of movie hype/speculation anyway.  

I think Jackman is responsible for providing a meteoric boost to the character so the chances of having an unsuccessful X-Men or wolverine centric movie are diminished IMHO. By the time Disney gets around to doing anything with X-Men (assuming they ever do) there'll be so much pent up demand it'll succeed in my view. A hulk v wolverine from MCU would blow the roof off no matter what, who or where!

I just think there are so many wolverine fans out there for the character to be able to sell itself as opposed to requiring an actor's ability to succeed. I have confidence in them casting a solid actor for this important role if they choose to do so. These casting directors/producers are professionals it's what they do for a living!!! Maybe the addition of some modern technology from the MCU that makes wolverine look like wolverine would help just a bit too?!

Doing anything with X-23 would be a waste of everyone's time IMHO. If they choose to feature X-23 at the expense of Logan wolverine it'll be cinematic malpractice. Don't think they're dumb enough to go there!

Anything with Spider Gwen would probably have zero impact on early Gwen Stacy appearances. Not really into the Spider Gwen character enough to render judgement on impact there

As for who's buying IH 181 due to movie hype?

No one.....Yet 

I don't think I implied anybody was. I was bringing up the possibility as an example of upward potential for the book down the road.

[lou_fine]

On 1/11/2019 at 9:37 AM, szavisca said:

On 1/11/2019 at 9:25 AM, mattn792 said:

 

In all seriousness though, I think its an extreme reach to believe that one person is hoarding all the 9.8 copies, and somehow a rising tide of FOMO has managed to lift copies in all grades to new heights.  This price spike phenomenon isn't exclusive to 181, its happened with other keys in the past.   

You wouldn’t need all of them or even close to all of them... just enough of the ones that have been getting flipped around.

Dunno what percentage of the 9.8s are locked up in PCs, and you’d probably make more money by having hoarded the innumerable low grade copies and selling those off.

Seems like it would be pretty easy for someone with the resources and patience.  I don’t think it’s a tin foil hat worthy suspicion, and it borders on naïveté to think no one would dare manipulate a market like this.

Ive heard reference to some historical effeorts of a few people to corner the market on a few SA keys in the 80s or 90s ... but I don’t recall the details.  Maybe someone who knows about that could give a few details on the story.

I would definitely agree with Matt here that it would be totally absurd for somebody to try to corner the IH 181 market.  Just ask the Hunt brothers when they tried to corner the silver market back in 1979/80 and had to file for bankruptcy when they lost over a billion doing that.  And back in 1980, you can bet a billion dollars really was a sh_tload of money back then.     

Just think about this for a minute.  If you are the only one that's buying as you drive the price of a HG Hulk 181 from say $3,000 up to $20,000; who's going to be willing to pay you more money than that when you try to unload them.  Especially when they were not even willing to pay a lot less than that before.  For example, if I was not willing to pay you $5,000 for a Hulk 181 before, what makes you think that I would now be willing to pay you $25,000 for it just because you drove the price up to that level all on your own.  Especially since comics are really much more of an unnecessary luxury as compared to something like silver which can be considered as a necessary commodity in a lot of cases.  

I don't think anybody was trying to corner the SA market back in the 80's.  Especially since the Overstreet valuations for SA Marvels were actually on a downtrend through much of that decade until you got to the end of the 80's when they finally turned around and started to head back up the other way, and only after several years of going absolutely nowhere.  

Edited January 13, 2019 by lou_fine

[szav]

8 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

the Hunt brothers

I believe this is the story I had heard anecdotally and as I recall it didn't end well for the people who tried to do this. 

I still think when you add up the value of all the graded copies of this particular book it is well within the means of some people to buy up enough of them to drive up the market.  Obviously it would be risky but I just don't think its that outlandish a proposition.  

I'm not talking about just buying a few 9.8s to drive up the value of your other 9.8s.... you hoard mostly lower grade books by the 100s or thousands of copies....then you spend a few months bidding up all of them up in all grades...the market is inflated....now you start selling.

You guys may call it tin foil worthy but....if someone had done this or is doing this....they'd be making bank as it stands right now right?

[lou_fine]

29 minutes ago, szavisca said:

45 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

the Hunt brothers

I believe this is the story I had heard anecdotally and as I recall it didn't end well for the people who tried to do this. 

I still think when you add up the value of all the graded copies of this particular book it is well within the means of some people to buy up enough of them to drive up the market.  Obviously it would be risky but I just don't think its that outlandish a proposition.  

I'm not talking about just buying a few 9.8s to drive up the value of your other 9.8s.... you hoard mostly lower grade books by the 100s or thousands of copies....then you spend a few months bidding up all of them up in all grades...the market is inflated....now you start selling.

You guys may call it tin foil worthy but....if someone had done this or is doing this....they'd be making bank as it stands right now right?

The only problem with this whole strategy is that if you remove the biggest and winning buyer (i.e. namely yourself) in all of these sales over the past several months, guess what is going to happen to the price when you start selling them.  

Isn't his exactly what happen to the Hunt Brothers when the Silver Exchange changed the margin rules for purchasing silver which forced them to dispose of some of their silver to cover their margin call?  Well, we can all guess what happened when they started to sell and before you knew it, they had lost over a billion dollars in short order as margin calls kept accelerating as the price of their Hulk 181's   silver were dropping like a rock.  

Instead of making bank, like the Hunt Brothers, you might be filing for bankruptcy instead.  

 

Edited January 13, 2019 by lou_fine

[szav]

13 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

The only problem with this whole strategy is that if you remove the biggest and winning buyer (i.e. namely yourself) in all of these sales over the past several months, guess what is going to happen to the price when you start selling them.  

Isn't his exactly what happen to the Hunt Brothers when the Silver Exchange changed the margin rules for purchasing silver which forced them to dispose of some of their silver to cover their margin call?  Well, we can all guess what happened when they started to sell and before you knew it, they had lost over a billion dollars in short order as margin calls kept accelerating as the price of their Hulk 181's   silver were dropping like a rock.  

Eh well, I'm not saying I think collusion is responsible for the jump in the IH 181 market... just stating as something to be considered and not really that implausible.  I already am wary of this market due to the overabundance of copies in all grade. 

You do have to wonder how much of the rise in lower grade copies is speculation and money driven vs collectors just trying to get any copy they can while they can.  I'd say its most likely just a reflection of the resurgent American economy since a certain president orange took over and instituted a lot of pro business and investment policies (cant deny that the timing coincides perfectly with the rise of this book even if ya hate the guy) ...although itll be interesting to see how the comic and other collectible markets behave in light of recent stock market volatility etc.

 

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, szavisca said:

Eh well, I'm not saying I think collusion is responsible for the jump in the IH 181 market... just stating as something to be considered and not really that implausible.  I already am wary of this market due to the overabundance of copies in all grade. 

You do have to wonder how much of the rise in lower grade copies is speculation and money driven vs collectors just trying to get any copy they can while they can.  I'd say its most likely just a reflection of the resurgent American economy since a certain president orange took over and instituted a lot of pro business and investment policies (cant deny that the timing coincides perfectly with the rise of this book even if ya hate the guy) ...although itll be interesting to see how the comic and other collectible markets behave in light of recent stock market volatility etc.

 

Well, it looks like you and I tend to view the comic book market from opposite points of view.  Nothing at all wrong with that as it's really to each their own.  

What you see as an unhealthy and speculative sign of the comic book marketplace in terms of prices going up across the entire condition spectrum, I actually see as a very healthy and positive sign of the marketplace for the particular book in question.  In terms of rising prices for Hulk 181 in all condition grades or any comic book for that matter, I tend to view that as a comic book transitioning from being just a graded label collectible into a true vintage comic book collectible.  I think a comic book is a lot more speculative if it can only sell in high grade and only at huge discounts to condition guide in anything below high grade.  Especially since you are really buying only the "label" at this point then.  Conversely, I think a comic book becomes much more of a true collectible if it can sell for a healthy premium or even multiples to condition guide in all grades across the entire condition spectrum.  And even more so, if this can be done with the book in either restored condition or conserved condition as is the case with many truly HTF GA books. 

For example, when I see a CGC 0.5 graded copy of Action 13 selling for $15K or CGC 1.0 graded copies of 'Tec 31 selling multiple times for $35K to $45K, I feel this is a sign of a strong market whereby collectors are wanting to acquire a book at a price level which they can afford, regardless of the condition grade stated on the label.  Similarly then, with prices for Hulk 181 showing broad strength and demand across all condition grades is actually a very healthy sign.  This, I feel is actually an indication that the book is taking the next step and fast becoming one of the truly vintage collectible books in our hobby going forward, as opposed to being just a short term speculative buy.  

Edited January 13, 2019 by lou_fine

[thehumantorch]

On 1/11/2019 at 10:25 AM, mattn792 said:

 

In all seriousness though, I think its an extreme reach to believe that one person is hoarding all the 9.8 copies, and somehow a rising tide of FOMO has managed to lift copies in all grades to new heights.  This price spike phenomenon isn't exclusive to 181, its happened with other keys in the past.   

Really doesn't make sense that one person is buying all the 9.8 copies.  But in this modern environment where many sales are known and tracked, and the information is readily available through technology, it's conceivable that someone could buy a small number of copies to show a increasing sales price and other flippers/collectors would note it and get on the train.  It wouldn't work for a book with little demand but perhaps prices could be influenced on a high demand book.

[thehumantorch]

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

Well, it looks like you and I tend to view the comic book market from opposite points of view.  Nothing at all wrong with that as it's really to each their own.  

What you see as an unhealthy and speculative sign of the comic book marketplace in terms of prices going up across the entire condition spectrum, I actually see as a very healthy and positive sign of the marketplace for the particular book in question.  In terms of rising prices for Hulk 181 in all condition grades or any comic book for that matter, I tend to view that as a comic book transitioning from being just a graded label collectible into a true vintage comic book collectible.  I think a comic book is a lot more speculative if it can only sell in high grade and only at huge discounts to condition guide in anything below high grade.  Especially since you are really buying only the "label" at this point then.  Conversely, I think a comic book becomes much more of a true collectible if it can sell for a healthy premium or even multiples to condition guide in all grades across the entire condition spectrum.  And even more so, if this can be done with the book in either restored condition or conserved condition as is the case with many truly HTF GA books. 

For example, when I see a CGC 0.5 graded copy of Action 13 selling for $15K or CGC 1.0 graded copies of 'Tec 31 selling multiple times for $35K to $45K, I feel this is a sign of a strong market whereby collectors are wanting to acquire a book at a price level which they can afford, regardless of the condition grade stated on the label.  Similarly then, with prices for Hulk 181 showing broad strength and demand across all condition grades is actually a very healthy sign.  This, I feel is actually an indication that the book is taking the next step and fast becoming one of the truly vintage collectible books in our hobby going forward, as opposed to being just a short term speculative buy.  

Lou, a fine post.

[MGsimba77]

3 hours ago, szavisca said:

I'd say its most likely just a reflection of the resurgent American economy since a certain president orange took over and instituted a lot of pro business and investment policies (cant deny that the timing coincides perfectly with the rise of this book even if ya hate the guy) 

Are you serious ?!?!?

Just a reminder that the increase in value for most IH 181 grades began in 2012. There's nothing sudden about it.

Check that, it was more ~ 2014 - 2015 but still well before the time you specified

Edited January 13, 2019 by MGsimba77

[szav]

1 hour ago, MGsimba77 said:

Are you serious ?!?!?

Yep serious, the value of this book has been going up every year forever pretty much but the biggest spike I've seen is in the last 2 years...shrug.  A 5.0 I sold in late 2016 for 850 would go for what 2000 now?

Edited January 13, 2019 by szavisca

[szav]

2 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Well, it looks like you and I tend to view the comic book market from opposite points of view

Don't think we're as far off in our view as you think, but as has happened on many previous occasions I don't think we're communicating effectively in text and perhaps were not getting each others points....or I'm not making my point as effectively as I think I am which is often the case hah.

when I say "vs collectors trying to get any copy that they can" those would be people who value IH 181 as a collectable and not an investment and are perhaps spending more than its worth (or more than I think its worth, and I could be wrong about thinking the price is inflated), because they just want to have one.

The real answer may be that the rapid increase in price/value of IH may be that it is driven by speculation, and a maturation of it into a 'vintage collectable" as you say....oh and of course...collusion and market manipulation right?  And who's to say how much weight each of these influences has...doesn't really matter. Gonna stop blabbing and revisit the topic in 2 or 3 years....

 

 

[MGsimba77]

9 hours ago, szavisca said:

Yep serious, the value of this book has been going up every year forever pretty much but the biggest spike I've seen is in the last 2 years...shrug.  A 5.0 I sold in late 2016 for 850 would go for what 2000 now?

Fair enough. Yeah there's been a spike of late obviously but I'd contend anyone making an investment like this just based on an economic sugar high is maybe not the wisest guy in the world.

Speculation can build on itself quite quickly causing people to want to get in on first wolverine before it gets out of reach. I suspect that's been the catalyst for the recent spike. That's not uncommon especially with stocks. 

[kimik]

Looks like the mid grade prices are starting to jump now as collectors get priced out of the high end.

This run up has also done well for Hulk #180 - CGC 9.4 copies in the $850 - $1000 range from last January will now cost $2K+ (last sale was $2450 but that looks like an outlier for now).

Edited January 15, 2019 by kimik

[ADAMANTIUM]

14 minutes ago, kimik said:

Looks like the mid grade prices are starting to jump now as collectors get priced out of the high end.

This run up has also done well for Hulk #180 - CGC 9.4 copies in the $850 - $1000 range from last January will now cost $2K+ (last sale was $2450 but that looks like an outlier for now).

You've got something there. Last January I bought a GSXM #1 In 7.0 that I probably could have got a 9.4 IH #180. Live and learn... 

 

[Spiderturtle]

5 hours ago, kimik said:

Looks like the mid grade prices are starting to jump now as collectors get priced out of the high end.

This run up has also done well for Hulk #180 - CGC 9.4 copies in the $850 - $1000 range from last January will now cost $2K+ (last sale was $2450 but that looks like an outlier for now).

the comiclink 9.8 is already at $34,000.  nice copy

[kimik]

5 hours ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

You've got something there. Last January I bought a GSXM #1 In 7.0 that I probably could have got a 9.4 IH #180. Live and learn... 

 

Last July/August I snagged a Hulk #180 CGC 9.4 W for $1500 as a spec play to upgrade on the mid grade raw copy I already had in hand. I was debating whether I should go for another Hulk #181 at the time instead. I am not sure I made the right choice, but the 9.4 #180 looks way better than the copies of #181 I was considering.  

Edited January 15, 2019 by kimik

[ADAMANTIUM]

1 minute ago, kimik said:

5 hours ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

You've got something there. Last January I bought a GSXM #1 In 7.0 that I probably could have got a 9.4 IH #180. Live and learn... 

 

Last July/August I snagged a Hulk #180 CGC 9.4 W for $1500 as a spec play to upgrade on the mid grade raw copy I already had in hand. I was debating whether I should go for another Hulk #181 at the time instead. I am not sure I made the right choice, but the 9.4 #180 looks way better than the copies of #181 I was considering.

I did upgrade my IH #180 to an 8.5....

and if I would have got the 9.4 last spring....

then it would have ended up being a 4.0-5.0 GSXM #1 instead of an 7.0....idk I'm trying to put lipstick on it haha

but you did alright!