Incredible Hulk #181 - is it *that* red-hot? 17 17

[alexgross.com]

1 hour ago, Randall Ries said:

While there are 4 WTB here, there are 3 to four PAGES on ebay alone with people wanting to sell an IH 181. Demand isn't "insatiable". It's been priced out of reach for most collectors. It will be the books undoing. I find it odd there are 4 requests here for an IH 181 when there are all grades in multiples on ebay to buy. Oh. Wait. Maybe the WTB's here are looking for some slack in pricing because we are all "buds". They can head to ebay and find the book. Or any number of online dealers waiting to hose the "insatiable" buyer who have inflamed loins with Hulky/Wolvie lust. BFD for IH 181.

with all due respect, you don't know what you're talking about. people have been saying the same nonsense for decades, and it's been proven wrong. just read a graph on gpa and even you should be able to understand a line that moves upwards. 

if you think it's an overrated book, you're entitled to your opinion. even if facts prove otherwise. 

Edited February 19, 2021 by www.alexgross.com

[lou_fine]

On 2/17/2021 at 9:22 AM, shadroch said:

I'd like to think there are more than 127 deep pocketed collectors out there. I wouldn't worry about census numbers until there are 500 or more 9.8s.

The real question is although there are indeed deep pocketed collectors out there, are there really 127 NEW ones out there, let along 500 of them that's willing to fork over $40K+ for a copy of Hulk 181?  Same thing with respect to TMNT 1 in terms of whether there are 32 NEW deep pocketed collectors, let alone say 100 of them, that are willing to turn over $60K+ for a copy of TMNT 1?  

After all, you have to remember that the vast majority of the current owners of CGC 9.8 graded copies of either Hulk 181 or TMNT 1 most likely brought them at a much lower price point than the current market value and would not actually be willing to pay current market value for a copy if they did not already own one.  

[Poekaymon]

On 2/18/2021 at 11:21 PM, www.alexgross.com said:

with all due respect, you don't know what you're talking about. people have been saying the same nonsense for decades, and it's been proven wrong. just read a graph on gpa and even you should be able to understand a line that moves upwards. 

if you think it's an overrated book, you're entitled to your opinion. even if facts prove otherwise. 

That guy thinks H181 doubled in all grades in the last couple years because of Logan DVDs.  Bahaha...

I can understanding hating on, say, Something is Killing the Children variants going for like $1k.  Or some of the Star Wars insanity.  Or maybe even NM 98 which has gone up like 50% in the last 6 months despite having 4000 9.8s.  But H181?  Nahhh.

[alexgross.com]

21 hours ago, lou_fine said:

The real question is although there are indeed deep pocketed collectors out there, are there really 127 NEW ones out there, let along 500 of them that's willing to fork over $40K+ for a copy of Hulk 181?  Same thing with respect to TMNT 1 in terms of whether there are 32 NEW deep pocketed collectors, let alone say 100 of them, that are willing to turn over $60K+ for a copy of TMNT 1?  

After all, you have to remember that the vast majority of the current owners of CGC 9.8 graded copies of either Hulk 181 or TMNT 1 most likely brought them at a much lower price point than the current market value and would not actually be willing to pay current market value for a copy if they did not already own one.  

i think that yes, there probably are. but i dont think there need to be. for example, i own two copies of JIM83, both in 5.0, now i am not a millionaire, otherwise i would own more than two, in higher grades. i believe that the very wealthy own multiple copies of some of their favorite books. also, 127 people is a miniscule number when you think about it. there are thousands of millionares out there, perhaps even millions. 

Edited February 21, 2021 by www.alexgross.com

[Poekaymon]

28 minutes ago, www.alexgross.com said:

i think that yes, there probably are. but i dont think there need to be. for example, i own two copies of JIM83, both in 5.0, now i am not a millionaire, otherwise i would own more than two, in higher grades. i believe that the very wealthy own multiple copies of some of their favorite books. also, 127 people is a miniscule number when you think about it. there are thousands of millionares out there, perhaps even millions. 

Yep, and there are actually tens of millions of millionaires.  (And a lot of them doubled their money last year.)  

[Off Panel]

22 hours ago, lou_fine said:

The real question is although there are indeed deep pocketed collectors out there, are there really 127 NEW ones out there, let along 500 of them that's willing to fork over $40K+ for a copy of Hulk 181?  Same thing with respect to TMNT 1 in terms of whether there are 32 NEW deep pocketed collectors, let alone say 100 of them, that are willing to turn over $60K+ for a copy of TMNT 1?  

After all, you have to remember that the vast majority of the current owners of CGC 9.8 graded copies of either Hulk 181 or TMNT 1 most likely brought them at a much lower price point than the current market value and would not actually be willing to pay current market value for a copy if they did not already own one.  

127 NEW buyers assumes the current 127 owners are willing to sell. 

I believe you've got two types of people currently holding on to IH 181's: 1) Speculators who bought high and will only sell when they can make enough profit to justify the initial purchase and 2) Collectors like me who see this book as part of our "permanent collections" and would only consider selling for a truly ridiculous price.

Both mindsets push the price on this book higher.

[lou_fine]

5 minutes ago, Poekaymon said:

37 minutes ago, www.alexgross.com said:

i believe that the very wealthy own multiple copies of some of their favorite books. also, 127 people is a miniscule number when you think about it. there are thousands of millionares out there, perhaps even millions. 

Yep, and there are actually tens of millions of millionaires.  (And a lot of them doubled their money last year.)  

No doubt there are tens of millions of millionaires throughout the entire world, but how many of them actually even want a copy of Hulk 181 regardless of the price?    

Heck, if you go by the strict definition of a millionaire, anybody that owns a house in this city is already by definition a millionaire.  As such, even though I am a long time comic book collector, I would never think of paying even a $1,000 for a copy of Hulk 181 (unless I already have a locked in guarantee of flipping it instantly at a huge profit), let alone at $40K for a copy.  

   the money, that is.     

[Off Panel]

On 12/19/2020 at 1:54 PM, lou_fine said:

Wow, I guess the answer to the question posed in the title of this thread here is that it must be pretty cold since it's been almost 3 whole long months since the last post in this thread.  

Nevertheless, any thoughts on this sale of Hulk 181 for $47,500 in Wednesday's CC auction:  

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/897304

Personally, I thought it was a pretty strong price for a CGC 9.8 graded copy, especially considering the rather clearly visible off-center white line at the spine which is kind of a visible eye sore to me.    

 

On 2/2/2021 at 9:49 PM, Randall Ries said:

I would say so, yes. My criteria is no white landing strips on 9.8 books that I am willing to pay 10's of thousands for.

A quick tangent here.

I will concede that a book where the line between the front and back cover hits the spine perfectly is the ideal. 

Having said that, a "white landing strip" is something that just doesn't bother me personally. I grew up in the South buying books off the drug store spinner racks in the 70s. I think the vast majority of books I picked up had that white strip, so to me, that's just what a comic book looks like.

(To be fair, this book does bother me, because it's white at the top, but not at the bottom. But if it were a straight white strip all the way down, it would be A-okay with me.)

[alexgross.com]

19 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

 I would never think of paying even a $1,000 for a copy of Hulk 181 (unless I already have a locked in guarantee of flipping it instantly at a huge profit), let alone at $40K for a copy.  

i bought my first copy, a 9.0WP about 7 yrs ago for $2200. sold it about 3 years later for $7500. now i have two copies, an 8.0 and an 8.5, both have appreciated as well since i got them. not sure why you wouldnt think of spending 1k aside from the fact that you cant really get this book anymore at that price. 

Edited February 21, 2021 by www.alexgross.com

[Callaway29]

What goes up, does not always go up.

I appreciate enthusiasm, but I also appreciate tempered expectations...

[Poekaymon]

11 hours ago, lou_fine said:

No doubt there are tens of millions of millionaires throughout the entire world, but how many of them actually even want a copy of Hulk 181 regardless of the price?    

Heck, if you go by the strict definition of a millionaire, anybody that owns a house in this city is already by definition a millionaire.  As such, even though I am a long time comic book collector, I would never think of paying even a $1,000 for a copy of Hulk 181 (unless I already have a locked in guarantee of flipping it instantly at a huge profit), let alone at $40K for a copy.  

   the money, that is.     

Who said anything about "regardless of price"?  It's set by the market--not that complicated.  

And you do have a "locked in guarantee of flipping it instantly."  It's called literally any online auction house or forum, including the one you're on right now.  High grades have been over $1k for a long time now, so you missed out on a ton of profits, my man.  (By the way, if someone offered even like a 3.0 on here for 1k, it'd be gone so quickly you wouldn't even get a chance to pass on it.  Actually, I'm not even sure you can get a .5 anymore for under 1k.) 

 

[Poekaymon]

10 hours ago, Callaway29 said:

What goes up, does not always go up.

I appreciate enthusiasm, but I also appreciate tempered expectations...

While things don't necessarily "always go up," they don't always crash either.   I appreciate some negativity, but I also appreciate paying attention to data.  Every time this debate comes up, including 3 years ago when this thread started, the naysayers rely on gut instinct that "goshdarnit, things are just too expensive right now."  But the data, the cold hard emotionless data, always supports the opposite inference.  Things fluctuate, that's how the market works, but mega keys, like H181, have been rock solid over decades.  That is not "enthusiasm"--it's not even an opinion--it is fact.

How about this--let's try something new.  Please point to me any year, say in the last 20 or 30 years, that AF15 or H181 were actually worth less a few years later (let's call it 3 years later).  In other words, name for me just one time in the last 30 years where it actually would have made sense financially not to buy either book, and rather to wait three years to buy it under the principle that you need to temper expectations.  I can save you some research and tell you that there has never been such a time, but please fact check me and report back.   

Edited February 21, 2021 by Poekaymon

[october]

31 minutes ago, Poekaymon said:

 

How about this--let's try something new.  Please point to me any year, say in the last 20 or 30 years, that AF15 or H181 were actually worth less a few years later (let's call it 3 years later).  In other words, name for me just one time in the last 30 years where it actually would have made sense financially not to buy either book, and rather to wait three years to buy it under the principle that you need to temper expectations.  I can save you some research and tell you that there has never been such a time, but please fact check me and report back.   

181 cratered HARD in 9.8 around 2011. It went from yearly highs of $25k to yearly highs of less than half of that. Took 6-7 years to recover.

[Poekaymon]

8 minutes ago, october said:

181 cratered HARD in 9.8 around 2011. It went from yearly highs of $25k to yearly highs of less than half of that. Took 6-7 years to recover.

Didn't see that, though I have only owned lower 9.xs.  Here's a good article about 9.0s against the stock market.  https://briandcolwell.com/dont-hold-dollars-hold-hulk-181/

So let's say you're right--I'm not going to try to verify it--and that 25k all-time high 9.8 sale, which then "cratered HARD," was back to in-the-money 6 years later and is now worth more than double.  That's not a very long timeframe where investments are concerned, and proves my overall point that over decades it has been solid.

[Poekaymon]

Here's something else to consider.  A lot of naysayers like to look at the max all-time high sale and then imagine some totally new buyer, in a vacuum, coming along and buying a single book--that all-time high priced book.  Then if it drops, that buyer lost money.  But I do not think that's even the most common scenario.

A lot of people, like myself, have had their collections increase so drastically that they have taken profits along the way, and have shifted some of their collection to older keys.  For example, last year I lucked into some Morales, Momoko, and Knull gains that were actually incredible (Like 500% on my money in a year--way more than H181 has gone up.).  But I'm not that bullish on moderns, and I took those gains and bought some silver/bronze keys (FF48, H181, Surfer 4).  My H181 is a 9.x.  And when I got it, it was at an all-time high (and has only continued to rise since).  Either way, it was paid for largely by profits from that other stuff.  That allows me to justify more (in my own mind) and also lets me not care if it drops.  I'm playing with house money.  And I argue a lot of other people are doing the same--at least as many as this hypothetical brand-new buyer.

[MGsimba77]

6 hours ago, october said:

181 cratered HARD in 9.8 around 2011. It went from yearly highs of $25k to yearly highs of less than half of that. Took 6-7 years to

I think there was some census filling at the time. The rest of the grades stayed flat. 

Edited February 22, 2021 by MGsimba77

[lou_fine]

12 hours ago, Poekaymon said:

23 hours ago, lou_fine said:

As such, even though I am a long time comic book collector, I would never think of paying even a $1,000 for a copy of Hulk 181 (unless I already have a locked in guarantee of flipping it instantly at a huge profit), let alone at $40K for a copy.  

 

And you do have a "locked in guarantee of flipping it instantly."  It's called literally any online auction house or forum, including the one you're on right now.  High grades have been over $1k for a long time now, so you missed out on a ton of profits, my man.  (By the way, if someone offered even like a 3.0 on here for 1k, it'd be gone so quickly you wouldn't even get a chance to pass on it.  Actually, I'm not even sure you can get a .5 anymore for under 1k.) 

From a pure mathematical theoretical point of view, you are 100% right in that it's a guaranteed locked in profit if I buy a CGC 9.8 copy for only $1K. 

As I have noted in my comment above, my problem is that I tend to approach comics more from a long term collector's point of view and as such, if I buy a comic book, it's really intended for my own personal collection.  I have never thought of purchasing a comic book and then doing an immediate flip on it make money on it because that would then seem more like work and hence take the fun out of it.  

With comics, I really see it more as a hobby which I enjoy and have fun with, and if it happens to go up in value over time while I own it, then that's just an extra bonus for me.  

 

[rexinnih]

When I checked in December, my beloved 6.5 that I remember saving $20 to buy at a comic con when I was a kid had broken the $3K barrier. I was curious and just checked Ebay and now it has cracked the $4K barrier. I'm getting scared to handle some of my comics now. 

[Poekaymon]

16 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

From a pure mathematical theoretical point of view, you are 100% right in that it's a guaranteed locked in profit if I buy a CGC 9.8 copy for only $1K. 

As I have noted in my comment above, my problem is that I tend to approach comics more from a long term collector's point of view and as such, if I buy a comic book, it's really intended for my own personal collection.  I have never thought of purchasing a comic book and then doing an immediate flip on it make money on it because that would then seem more like work and hence take the fun out of it.  

With comics, I really see it more as a hobby which I enjoy and have fun with, and if it happens to go up in value over time while I own it, then that's just an extra bonus for me.  

 

I mean if you want to keep moving the goalposts.  Point is, you can flip it, or you can hold it long term.  The data show that it does appreciate over a long (decades) timeline.  If you just want to say that you don't like the book, then what can I say but:  ok!  

[lou_fine]

On 2/20/2021 at 9:23 PM, www.alexgross.com said:

On 2/20/2021 at 9:03 PM, lou_fine said:

I would never think of paying even a $1,000 for a copy of Hulk 181 (unless I already have a locked in guarantee of flipping it instantly at a huge profit), let alone at $40K for a copy.  

i bought my first copy, a 9.0WP about 7 yrs ago for $2200. sold it about 3 years later for $7500. now i have two copies, an 8.0 and an 8.5, both have appreciated as well since i got them. not sure why you wouldnt think of spending 1k aside from the fact that you cant really get this book anymore at that price. 

Well, to tell you the honest truth, I already have a copy of Hulk 181 which I picked up some 40 odd years ago for what I thought was then an outrageous price of $5.  Was down at the local con back then and the dealer had it as part of his wall display and was seriously thinking of handing it back to him since he was asking both above guide for the book and also not refusing to come down on his price, but the book was just too nice to turn down since I must have been a Byrne/Austin X-Men fan back then or else I never would have even bothered to look at a Hulk 181 in the first place.   

Since I am really more of a GA collector at this point in time and have been for the last 30 years or so, I would have to admit that I zero interest in looking for any Marvel related books since they are so readily available and really nothing more than being willing to open up your wallet if you want any Marvel book at all.  Although I don't remember ever spending anywhere close to more than double digits on a Marvel book, I will admit that my biggest regret and one I that I still think about every now and then was turning down an uber HG set of Spidey 2 through 10 for only $1K near the end of the 80's just before the Marvel SA books took off after spending the good part of the 80's going absolutely nowhere except slightly down in valuation.   Sigh......double sigh.............all those key super villians first appearances and also in grade to boot!!!    

I guess I must be at that old timer stage  of my collecting life cycle where I just get so much more fun and enjoyment out of being able to find the much HTF Centaur books or Fox books which have only a handful of copies slabbed to date, as opposed to chasing down relatively common books which already have thousands of copies slabbed to date.  I guess it's really a case of to each, their own as long as we all enjoy what we are getting out of our comic book purchases. 

For me at least, it makes it really fast to go through the auction listings from the various auction houses nowadays since I simply skip through anything that's from Marvel and pretty much also anything from DC.    

 

Edited February 22, 2021 by lou_fine