Incredible Hulk #181 - is it *that* red-hot? 17 17

[delekkerste]

Even cards which hobbyist consider common, like a 1968 Topps Nolan Ryan, is actually extremely scarce when the supply is balanced against demand. There are only 10,000 Nolan Ryan rookies in professionally graded holders.

There are conservatively 10 million Americans who have a touch with professional sports, trading cards, and the brand of Nolan Ryan. Supply can never even hope to meet demand.

This is just   and belies even a basic knowledge of economics.  Looking at 10 million fans vs. 10,000 graded Nolan Ryan rookies is completely asinine because PRICE RATIONS DEMAND.  At current prices, anyone can buy a Nolan Ryan rookie because they are not scarce and supply/demand is relatively balanced.  People don't have to keep paying up over last sale because there are so few to go around.  Also, over time, I guarantee you that fewer people will be interested in Nolan Ryan (most younger fans never even saw him play) - demand will inevitably decline and the supply will remain more or less constant, if not grow in the census as more examples get slabbed.  I'd bet that, after a decade of outperformance, this sports card index (with heaps of self-selection bias here) will mean revert in a big way.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if this index, in 10 years, hasn't even kept pace with inflation from present levels.  

Hulk #181 I am less sure about, but, feel like there is already a lot baked into the cake at current prices, to the point where I don't know that more X-Men movies is any guarantee that it's a good time to hop on the IH181 investment train. 

Edited February 1, 2019 by delekkerste

[Spiderturtle]

15 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Also, over time, I guarantee you that fewer people will be interested in Nolan Ryan (most younger fans never even saw him play) - demand will inevitably decline and the supply will remain more or less constant, if not grow in the census as more examples get slabbed.  I'd bet that, after a decade of outperformance, this sports card index (with heaps of self-selection bias here) will mean revert in a big way.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if this index, in 10 years, hasn't even kept pace with inflation from present levels.  

Hulk #181 I am less sure about, but, feel like there is already a lot baked into the cake at current prices, to the point where I don't know that more X-Men movies is any guarantee that it's a good time to hop on the IH181 investment train. 

pretty much sums up sports cards vs comics

[Darkowl]

6 hours ago, delekkerste said:

Hulk #181 I am less sure about, but, feel like there is already a lot baked into the cake at current prices, to the point where I don't know that more X-Men movies is any guarantee that it's a good time to hop on the IH181 investment train. 

Nothing is a guarantee, and Disney could totally butcher the X-Men, though the more likely scenario is that Disney will make the X-Men even more popular and mainstream than what they currently are. Hard to imagine, but that's exactly what Disney does best. Look at what they did for GOTG. No one even cared about Rocket, Groot, Starlord, etc. Now everyone knows who they are. 

But again, Wolverine doesn't need the movies to maintain his iconic status. The movies are more of a bonus than anything.

I will add this though, I'm smart enough to know that I don't know as much as I think I do, and life has a funny way of flipping things upside down as soon as you think you've figured it out. In other words, I could be totally wrong about the future value of Hulk 181. 

PS. I'm actually more concerned about the value of GSX1. The value on that book was pretty stagnant, until there was word of Disney buying X-Men.

Edited February 1, 2019 by Darkowl

[ComicConnoisseur]

On 2/1/2019 at 12:29 PM, Spiderturtle said:

pretty much sums up sports cards vs comics

The Marvel and DC comic book characters have the edge over just about any other Sports/Hollywood celebrity because they don't get old and keep reinventing themselves.

Ask anybody in 1946 who would be more popular with mainstream in the future Frank Sinatra or Captain America?

Ask anybody in 1956 who would be more popular with mainstream in the future  Elvis or The Flash?

Ask anybody in 1966 who would be more popular with mainstream in the future  the Beatles or Spider-Man?

Ask anybody in 1976 who would be more popular with mainstream in the future Led Zeppelin or Wolverine?

Ask anybody in 1986 who would be more popular with mainstream in the future  Bruce Springsteen or the Watchmen?

Ask anybody in 1996 who would be more popular with mainstream in the future Nirvana or Deadpool?

Most would have picked the rock stars,but in the end the comic book super heroes won because they don't age which makes it much easier to re-invent themselves to new audiences.

This is why comic book keys in the end will be better long term investments than rock/hollywood/and sports memorabilia.

The comic book heroes keep getting new audiences do to the movies and videogames, while rock/hollywood/and sports memorabilia lose their audience as that audience gets older and dies out.

Brillant moves for Spider-Man in  2018  were 

 

 

and

Both of them introduced millions of new fans to Spider-Man.

 

Edited February 8, 2019 by ComicConnoisseur

[seanfingh]

18 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Ask anybody in 1976 who would be more popular with mainstream in the future Led Zeppelin or Wolverine?

 

How are you gauging "popularity?"  Led Zeppelin IV sold 24 million copies.  It is the 3rd or 4th best selling album of all time.  That is just one of their albums.  I'm pretty sure I and II are both diamond level in sales. If popularity means part of the Zeitgeist of the country, then I think LZ holds up pretty well.  Who in America doesn't know the lyrics to at least one LZ song?  Maybe more people than could pick Wolverine out of a lineup. I chose LZ because I think the Beatles and Elvis are even more problematic.  I have no idea what Elvis' estate makes on an annual basis, but I know it is a frickin lot.  There is more Elvis branded stuff than Flash branded stuff - I would bet a months wages on it.

Pop culture impact is nowhere near as cut and dried as you make it.

[ComicConnoisseur]

1 hour ago, seanfingh said:

How are you gauging "popularity?"  Led Zeppelin IV sold 24 million copies.  It is the 3rd or 4th best selling album of all time.  That is just one of their albums.  I'm pretty sure I and II are both diamond level in sales. If popularity means part of the Zeitgeist of the country, then I think LZ holds up pretty well.  Who in America doesn't know the lyrics to at least one LZ song?  Maybe more people than could pick Wolverine out of a lineup. I chose LZ because I think the Beatles and Elvis are even more problematic.  I have no idea what Elvis' estate makes on an annual basis, but I know it is a frickin lot.  There is more Elvis branded stuff than Flash branded stuff - I would bet a months wages on it.

Pop culture impact is nowhere near as cut and dried as you make it.

How many people though under 30 know Led Zep? 

Going forward who will keep making millions of new fans? Disney now owns Wolverine. That alone will make Wolverine`s popularity jump higher than Led Zep.

Also 24 million copies is good in the record industry,but so is the Wolverine movies that have grossed over 1 billion worldwide.

Wolverine has a much higher upside than old Led Zep from the 1970s.

All the Marvel movie heroes do. They are the new rockstars to this and upcoming generations.

btw I love Led Zep, Elvis and the Beatles,but there is no way they can keep up with the mighty Disney machine for hype. We even got the new Disney streaming channel on the way that will introduce even more Marvel heroes to new fans.

Best bet are the comic book keys in the collectibles field.

The prices we see now will look like bargains in 5 years.

Edited February 8, 2019 by ComicConnoisseur

[seanfingh]

Maybe. But guys like you and I are prejudiced - we grew up loving and collecting the comics in which all these characters began.  My nieces don't care about any superhero stuff, but they love Post Malone.  If superheroes end up being a cyclical movie fad, which is possible if people get burned out, you are overstating the impact.    

[mattn792]

46 minutes ago, seanfingh said:

Maybe. But guys like you and I are prejudiced - we grew up loving and collecting the comics in which all these characters began.  My nieces don't care about any superhero stuff, but they love Post Malone.  If superheroes end up being a cyclical movie fad, which is possible if people get burned out, you are overstating the impact.    

Over saturation is a great point, especially since Led Zeppelin was introduced into the conversation.  I know I've reached the point where I would drive off a bridge if I was subjected to any extended run of Zeppelin, AC/DC, Aerosmith, or a few other bands' songs.  Why is this?  Over saturation of course.  In Chicago, we have exactly one alleged classic rock station.  And you can pretty much set your watch to the completely vanilla song pattern of AC/DC, Zeppelin, Aerosmith, Stones, some other popular one off song, repeat.  Plus, if you can believe it, things were even worse when we had two alleged classic rock stations.  How?  On several occasions I'd flip back and forth between them, and they would literally be playing the EXACT SAME SONG. 

So yes, after you've heard "Thunderstruck" for the 347,628th time, it gets a little bit maddening.  Could the same occur if Disney were to start peppering the big screen with a dozen superhero movies per year?  Certainly seems plausible.

[ADAMANTIUM]

Haven't had enough Led Zepplin? Greta Van Fleet is not too bad, but they have their spin that classic rock may live on, then back to IH 180/181/182   

 

[BoosterBeetle]

On 2/1/2019 at 12:12 PM, delekkerste said:

Even cards which hobbyist consider common, like a 1968 Topps Nolan Ryan, is actually extremely scarce when the supply is balanced against demand. There are only 10,000 Nolan Ryan rookies in professionally graded holders.

There are conservatively 10 million Americans who have a touch with professional sports, trading cards, and the brand of Nolan Ryan. Supply can never even hope to meet demand.

This is just   and belies even a basic knowledge of economics.  Looking at 10 million fans vs. 10,000 graded Nolan Ryan rookies is completely asinine because PRICE RATIONS DEMAND.  At current prices, anyone can buy a Nolan Ryan rookie because they are not scarce and supply/demand is relatively balanced.  People don't have to keep paying up over last sale because there are so few to go around.  Also, over time, I guarantee you that fewer people will be interested in Nolan Ryan (most younger fans never even saw him play) - demand will inevitably decline and the supply will remain more or less constant, if not grow in the census as more examples get slabbed.  I'd bet that, after a decade of outperformance, this sports card index (with heaps of self-selection bias here) will mean revert in a big way.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if this index, in 10 years, hasn't even kept pace with inflation from present levels.  

Hulk #181 I am less sure about, but, feel like there is already a lot baked into the cake at current prices, to the point where I don't know that more X-Men movies is any guarantee that it's a good time to hop on the IH181 investment train. 

I collect both Cards and Comics and you are just wrong about the Card market. Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle are setting new price records every year and haven't played in decades. Also the prospect market is out preforming the variant market by quite a lot. Just look at Mike Trout and Vlad Jr. prices. 

There is room for both in my collections and both my Schomburgs, Key Bronze age books and HOF RC's have gone up in value in the last 10 years. My Roberto Clemente RC PSA 7 was purchased for $1200 just 6 years ago is now selling for close to 7K.  The people repeating that the sports card market is dead are just fooling themselves. 

[MGsimba77]

4 hours ago, seanfingh said:

Who in America doesn't know the lyrics to at least one LZ song?  Maybe more people than could pick Wolverine out of a lineup.

Hmnnn? Not sure about that one.

To people like me that weren't around in the 70's that may not be true. I guess that would be late Gen X'ers. I'd assume that wouldn't apply to millennials & younger that's for sure!

Personally as far as 70ish bands I like Blue Oyster Cult waayyyyy better !

Yeah I'd mostly agree with @ComicConnoisseur but there would be some exceptions like Elvis & "the Boss" come to mind. Dudes are timeless 

[Spiderturtle]

For the 70s, it’s ABBA for me. Unfortunately they aren’t that big in the USA.  Reading some bronze comics and listening to ABBA  Coming out with some new material this year.  

Edited February 9, 2019 by Spiderturtle

[delekkerste]

7 hours ago, BoosterBeetle said:

I collect both Cards and Comics and you are just wrong about the Card market. Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle are setting new price records every year and haven't played in decades. Also the prospect market is out preforming the variant market by quite a lot. Just look at Mike Trout and Vlad Jr. prices. 

There is room for both in my collections and both my Schomburgs, Key Bronze age books and HOF RC's have gone up in value in the last 10 years. My Roberto Clemente RC PSA 7 was purchased for $1200 just 6 years ago is now selling for close to 7K.  The people repeating that the sports card market is dead are just fooling themselves. 

Ah, the old no one collecting now saw Ruth and Mantle play chestnut, just as no one collecting now bought Action #1 or Tec #27 off the newsstands.  These are things whose veneration is passed down from one generation of collector to another, but, there's a very wide swath in the middle that can and will fade out over time (and I wouldn't be surprised to see the top end also start to fade in the coming years/decades as I don't see the younger generations having either the aggregate interest or resources to keep clearing the market at ever-escalating prices over time).  

Unlike my pal tth2, I didn't attend the School of Linear Extrapolation, whereby you just project forward the experience you know indefinitely into the future without taking into consideration shifts in the underlying changes in fundamentals.  If anything, outperformance over a 10-year time span usually leads to an ensuing period of mean reversion at a minimum (and my big picture framework isn't looking for the minimum).  I think a lot of art & collectibles will struggle to even maintain their value in inflation-adjusted terms over the next decade, and the further out you go, the more I see permanent impairment of value in real (inflation-adjusted) terms as inevitable. 

And, for the record, my comments on the sports card market were forward-looking, not backward-looking. I didn't say that the market is dead.  More like, it's gonna be dead.  

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

12 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Ah, the old no one collecting now saw Ruth and Mantle play chestnut, just as no one collecting now bought Action #1 or Tec #27 off the newsstands.  These are things whose veneration is passed down from one generation of collector to another, but, there's a very wide swath in the middle that can and will fade out over time (and I wouldn't be surprised to see the top end also start to fade in the coming years/decades as I don't see the younger generations having either the aggregate interest or resources to keep clearing the market at ever-escalating prices over time).  

Unlike my pal tth2, I didn't attend the School of Linear Extrapolation, whereby you just project forward the experience you know indefinitely into the future without taking into consideration shifts in the underlying changes in fundamentals.  If anything, outperformance over a 10-year time span usually leads to an ensuing period of mean reversion at a minimum (and my big picture framework isn't looking for the minimum).  I think a lot of art & collectibles will struggle to even maintain their value in inflation-adjusted terms over the next decade, and the further out you go, the more I see permanent impairment of value in real (inflation-adjusted) terms as inevitable. 

And, for the record, my comments on the sports card market were forward-looking, not backward-looking. I didn't say that the market is dead.  More like, it's gonna be dead.  

You may be right, but sheesh; somebody find me a ledge to jump off

[I am not Glenda]

17 hours ago, mattn792 said:

Over saturation is a great point, especially since Led Zeppelin was introduced into the conversation.  I know I've reached the point where I would drive off a bridge if I was subjected to any extended run of Zeppelin, AC/DC, Aerosmith, or a few other bands' songs.  Why is this?  Over saturation of course.  In Chicago, we have exactly one alleged classic rock station.  And you can pretty much set your watch to the completely vanilla song pattern of AC/DC, Zeppelin, Aerosmith, Stones, some other popular one off song, repeat.  Plus, if you can believe it, things were even worse when we had two alleged classic rock stations.  How?  On several occasions I'd flip back and forth between them, and they would literally be playing the EXACT SAME SONG. 

So yes, after you've heard "Thunderstruck" for the 347,628th time, it gets a little bit maddening.  Could the same occur if Disney were to start peppering the big screen with a dozen superhero movies per year?  Certainly seems plausible.

1000% dead on with over saturation on the music front " I love G&R but can't stand Welcome to the Jungle for one minute at this point lol. I also think we will see the Disney/Marvel /Star Wars properties have highs and lows in the future ( SW is at a bit of a low right now due to the last movie). However, with the Mouse owing those properties, I think we would all agree that both properties have a bright long term future. Disneys aggressive promotion via their monster mouse media machine is not something I would bet against. The current bang for your $$$ is at the youth pre-teen level, get these kids hooked on Darth Vader & Wolverine and you have endless generations of new customers just waiting to give you their money. Now, will this be good or bad for comics values over the next 20 yrs I really don't have a clue but it seems to me we are now in a much more global market than even a decade ago so I would think Hulk 181 and its like have some room to grow in terms of value. People are paying $2000 for a signed NM 98,5 yrs ago it was a $300 book & $60 bucks raw all day at any show.

Edited February 9, 2019 by Frank Mozz

[ComicConnoisseur]

On 2/8/2019 at 4:14 PM, BoosterBeetle said:

I collect both Cards and Comics and you are just wrong about the Card market. Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle are setting new price records every year and haven't played in decades. Also the prospect market is out preforming the variant market by quite a lot. Just look at Mike Trout and Vlad Jr. prices. 

There is room for both in my collections and both my Schomburgs, Key Bronze age books and HOF RC's have gone up in value in the last 10 years. My Roberto Clemente RC PSA 7 was purchased for $1200 just 6 years ago is now selling for close to 7K.  The people repeating that the sports card market is dead are just fooling themselves. 

I love both hobbies as well, but my spin is I am going to say in the now modern sports cards are a better investment than modern comics,while in the long-term vintage comic keys will be a better investment than vintage sports card keys.

Modern sports cards are like you could open up a pack or box and hit a card worth hundreds to thousands, while with vintage comics they will outlast and stay more relevant than old sports stars. An example with that is Spider-Man and Batman will outlast Mickey Mantle and Babe Ruth because there are new adventures of both characters with movies and videogames, while Mantle and Ruth are living off old people`s nostalgia that is fading. Batman and Spider-Man stay relevant with modern times,while unfortunately Babe and the Mick are stuck in the 1920s and 1950s were a good portion of the modern generation can`t relate

So in conclusion modern sportscards for instant now short-term profit are a better bet than modern comics.

Vintage comic keys are a better bet than sportscard keys long-term.

Edited February 15, 2019 by ComicConnoisseur

[UncleBEN]

On 1/25/2019 at 6:16 AM, delekkerste said:

Yep.  Just because one can afford to overpay and look  doesn't mean one should open one's wallet and remove all doubt, just as you don't pay $1800 for an $18 pizza just because you're Jeff Bezos. 

I held the 9.9 in my hands at an SDCC sometime in the early 2000s (2001-03 timeframe).  Back then I was known as a big Bronze/Copper comic guy and the then-owner saw my name on my badge and invited me over to check it out (I forget what price he had on it at the time, but, it was way out of my league back then).  It didn't look like a 9.9 to me even before the SCS.  It's been too long to remember specific details, but, I remember my impression of it:  gift grade from early days of CGC grading. Not that it matters to the label-chasers out there. 

We just have been at the same show as I did the same thing. Ideal Collectables was the seller , and I agree whole-heartedly with your assessment. The deep color breaking stress mark on the spine kept me from purchasing it. A decision I regret as 50K would have been a helluva deal nowadays .

It has taken me many years to find a keeper copy of this book, and with the current pandemonium I am at least happy that I got in relatively early.

 

[tdotcbc84]

2 hours ago, UncleBEN said:

We just have been at the same show as I did the same thing. Ideal Collectables was the seller , and I agree whole-heartedly with your assessment. The deep color breaking stress mark on the spine kept me from purchasing it. A decision I regret as 50K would have been a helluva deal nowadays .

It has taken me many years to find a keeper copy of this book, and with the current pandemonium I am at least happy that I got in relatively early.

 

Relatively early could mean 2018  

[ADAMANTIUM]

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Hulk-181CGC5-0/233140727222?hash=item3648452db6:g:rJcAAOSwUPlcbfu5

Someone got a steal..... kinda but really kinda did ha.

I was wondering, I know these do well at auction, and there always seems to be a LOOOT of auctions.... why so many auctions? seems that those would run out of steam first and then your left holding the bag idk .......

Edited February 22, 2019 by ADAMANTIUM
"those"

[WolverineX]

28 minutes ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Hulk-181CGC5-0/233140727222?hash=item3648452db6:g:rJcAAOSwUPlcbfu5

Someone got a steal..... kinda but really kinda did ha.

I was wondering, I know these do well at auction, and there always seems to be a LOOOT of auctions.... why so many auctions? seems that those would run out of steam first and then your left holding the bag idk .......

Whoa.  That is a ridiculous price