Incredible Hulk #181 - is it *that* red-hot? 17 17

[I am not Glenda]

On 2/2/2021 at 9:49 PM, Randall Ries said:

I would say so, yes. My criteria is no white landing strips on 9.8 books that I am willing to pay 10's of thousands for.

The whole IH 181 thing is like mob mentality. There is nothing rare about them. There are 126 9.8's in existence. Gives us an idea how many lower graded books there are as well. There are only 9 Batman 227's in 9.8. I wouldn't dare buy IH 181 in such high grade. Not sure I could get my money back if I needed to. One sucker buys a 9.8 for almost 50 thow. Ok. Doesn't make them all worth $50k. Just one dude who has more money than sense.

I hope for a lot of peoples sake Wolvie suddenly doesn't hold the public's attention anymore. When that book softens, it's going to soften hard for a lot of people. Like Green Lantern 76 did. People were buying that book in 9.6 for $30k not all that long ago. I could get one for $9k now. That's a big drop. The auction houses, GCG with their little stickers and Metropolis are laughing all the way to the bank.

I call this the now (decade old)............ wait till posts which I have read for as long as I can remember on these and many other boards about 181, ASM 300, AF15 GSXM 1.... wait till nobody cares about -----, wait till it there are more 9.8's, wait till everyone unloads theirs.... wait till the next movie sucks. sooooo glad I didn't wait till, 10 years ago to buy my 9.8 181. It could drop 50% and I will still be good and beyond any monetary reason since a guy named Miller did a 4 issue mini series 40 yrs ago about a guy named Logan I have loved the madman with claws!

 

Edited February 9, 2021 by I am not Glenda

[Randall Ries]

3 hours ago, I am not Glenda said:

I call this the now (decade old)............ wait till posts which I have read for as long as I can remember on these and many other boards about 181, ASM 300, AF15 GSXM 1.... wait till nobody cares about -----, wait till it there are more 9.8's, wait till everyone unloads theirs.... wait till the next movie sucks. sooooo glad I didn't wait till, 10 years ago to buy my 9.8 181. It could drop 50% and I will still be good and beyond any monetary reason since a guy named Miller did a 4 issue mini series 40 yrs ago about a guy named Logan I have loved the madman with claws!

 

Well, Glen. I was just saying that there are a whole lot of IH 181 flying around. Has GSXM 1 bloated the same way as 181? Or ASM 300? How many really decent AF 15's are out there? I'm glad you like the character. It'll always be expensive. Just maybe not as expensive as it is now.

It's a fact that movies are affecting the value. WW 1984 shot All Star Comics 8 in the spine. Basically just took the bloat away. So, it's probably heading back to being valuable, but not Kings Ransom valuable. In other words, back to Earth. If a Wolvie movie comes out and doesn't feature what's his name or stinks or God forbid BOTH, there will be a "market correction".

[MGsimba77]

Wonder Woman is not a great example. There have been a number of subpar DC comics movies. They will never equal the MCU. The MCU moves the needle in a way no one else does. WW doesn't match the appeal of a Wolverine and never will. I don't put it past Feige to screw up the x-men rollout however. I don't know maybe he decides to bypass the big screen and limit them to Wandavision??? Perhaps some other dumb idea like having Wolverine in a tank top or who knows what? Maybe bad casting with unrecognizable costumes totally unrelated to the source material. Fox certainly went in that cringe worthy direction. Maybe he does nothing with X and continues releasing Ant man & Wasp type movies or another Avengers? So it's far from a guarantee he doesn't fumble this. These guys tend to have their own ideas on how these characters should be portrayed often straying dramatically from the source material. I wouldn't be surprised if Wolverine ends up looking like Timber Wolf 

The point is Wolverine's popularity provides more of a buffer than WW or maybe most DC titles. His instant healing powers protect from damage inflicted by knuckleheaded movie execs. That's a good thing!

Edited February 10, 2021 by MGsimba77

[mattn792]

Not to mention the first Wolverine movie is awful, and the second is solidly subpar.  The market ultimately overlooked both.

[I am not Glenda]

23 hours ago, Randall Ries said:

 It'll always be expensive. Just maybe not as expensive as it is now.

 

Or maybe it will never go down ( unless there is market correction to the entire hobby) & the prices seen here today will look like a great deal in 5 years? What I was trying to say was that in one form or another your post ( and I mean this with no disrespect) has been part of the conversation with 181 and other books for decades at this point, yet regardless of movies or comic popularity  certain books including 181 continue to defies the laws of supply and demand and really in all grades ( the top pulls the bottom up) & the book continues to rise, yes there are times when it slows a bit ( AF 15 in all but the highest grades has been (stag net for 3yrs) but then boom one day you look and it's on the move again. 

 

Edited February 11, 2021 by I am not Glenda

[Randall Ries]

3 minutes ago, I am not Glenda said:

Or maybe it will never go down ( unless there is market correction to the entire hobby) & the prices seen here today will look like a great deal in 5 years?

That is most likely going to be the case. At least, it will level off and stay the same value. It USED to be that truly rare books were very expensive and enjoyed a gradual increase in value from year to year. I think of books like House Of Secrets 92. It has always been a weird book and expensive but not SO expensive. But enjoyed a small increase in value every year. As I say, if Wolvie loses his popularity, 181 will take a good hit in value. I suppose that isn't likely either.

[Poekaymon]

Feel like these arguments have been going on for years and years.  Even if you just look at the first pages of this thread, back in 2018.  Yet, the books discussed have all basically doubled or more since then.  Whoops.

But to be fair I thought TSLA was overvalued at 200.  And 400.  And 600.  And now 800.  Sometimes you want it to be one way, but it's the other way.

[october]

4 hours ago, Poekaymon said:

Sometimes you want it to be one way, but it's the other way.

Solid Wire reference right there. 

[lou_fine]

On 2/2/2021 at 6:49 PM, Randall Ries said:

Like Green Lantern 76 did. People were buying that book in 9.6 for $30k not all that long ago. I could get one for $9k now. That's a big drop. The auction houses, GCG with their little stickers and Metropolis are laughing all the way to the bank.

I guess you must be referring to this auction result here that ended at $29,585 back in June of 2009:

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/304395   

I clearly remember this sale and as I had mentioned at the time, this $30K was paid not so much for the book, but more for the label itself as it must have gone to a CGC label collector who was willing to dig deep deep down into their pocket to obtain the one and only highest graded copy of this book at the time.  

Like I stated at the time, it is totally absurb for label collectors to pay an insane premium for a temporary highest graded copy when the graded comic book market is still so new with so many more raw copies or lower graded copies still waiting to have their potential maximized.  As a long time collector, a good buy is when you buy a book at a price point such that you want other copies to enter into the marketplace to not only reinforce the price that you had paid for the book, but also to help push it up to the next incremental pricing level.  It's clearly a sign that you have over paid if the sales of other copies in the equivalent or similar grades only serves to push the price of your copy down.         

Edited February 15, 2021 by lou_fine

[Randall Ries]

8 hours ago, lou_fine said:

I guess you must be referring to this auction result here that ended at $29,585 back in June of 2009:

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/304395   

I clearly remember this sale and as I had mentioned at the time, this $30K was paid not so much for the book, but more for the label itself as it must have gone to a CGC label collector who was willing to dig deep deep down into their pocket to obtain the one and only highest graded copy of this book at the time.  

Like I stated at the time, it is totally absurb for label collectors to pay an insane premium for a temporary highest graded copy when the graded comic book market is still so new with so many more raw copies or lower graded copies still waiting to have their potential maximized.  As a long time collector, a good buy is when you buy a book at a price point such that you want other copies to enter into the marketplace to not only reinforce the price that you had paid for the book, but also to help push it up to the next incremental pricing level.  It's clearly a sign that you have over paid if the sales of other copies in the equivalent or similar grades only serves to push the price of your copy down.         

That's it entirely. Now you own a book that served to shoot all the other subsequently graded books in the face. "One Book to rule them all, One Book to find them, One Book to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them..."

[Poekaymon]

On 2/9/2021 at 8:50 PM, Randall Ries said:

 If a Wolvie movie comes out and doesn't feature what's his name or stinks or God forbid BOTH, there will be a "market correction".

Totally disagree.  Some books are affected by movies (and, even moreso it seems, rumors of movies), but Wolverine isn't one of them.  Some of his movies were seriously bad --didn't change anything.  And while Logan is generally considered one of the best superhero movies yet made, it was four years ago.  Not saying there won't be a correction market wide, but Wolvie doesn't rely on movies.

Edited February 15, 2021 by Poekaymon

[fastballspecial]

It will be interesting to see it plays out over the next few years with new collectors.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2021 by fastballspecial

[Randall Ries]

41 minutes ago, Poekaymon said:

Totally disagree.  Some books are affected by movies (and, even moreso it seems, rumors of movies), but Wolverine isn't one of them.  Some of his movies were seriously bad --didn't change anything.  And while Logan is generally considered one of the best superhero movies yet made, it was four years ago.  Not saying there won't be a correction market wide, but Wolvie doesn't rely on movies.

That's fine. I certainly don't wish anyone ill with their purchases. I SUCK at speculating as well. Just seems like there are so many copies available in decent shape. At some point, the bubble may burst. People and their whims are fickle. I mean, If I paid $5500 for a 9.0 today, there would be a warehouse find of 100,000 9.8's tomorrow.

[october]

23 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

That's fine. I certainly don't wish anyone ill with their purchases. I SUCK at speculating as well. Just seems like there are so many copies available in decent shape. At some point, the bubble may burst. People and their whims are fickle. I mean, If I paid $5500 for a 9.0 today, there would be a warehouse find of 100,000 9.8's tomorrow.

There are a lot of Jordan rookie cards out there too, but that didn't stop it from going to the moon in all grades. I think Wolverine is it that category, along with Venom. Supply is somewhat of a factor, but the demand is so strong it just doesn't matter that much how many copies are available. 

[Poekaymon]

1 hour ago, Randall Ries said:

That's fine. I certainly don't wish anyone ill with their purchases. I SUCK at speculating as well. Just seems like there are so many copies available in decent shape. At some point, the bubble may burst. People and their whims are fickle. I mean, If I paid $5500 for a 9.0 today, there would be a warehouse find of 100,000 9.8's tomorrow.

No one's finding a warehouse of 9.8 H181s.  It's true that there are thousands, or tens of thousands, of some books.  But there are also billions of people in the world.  I just don't even consider big firsts to be "speculating."  If you want to bet against AF15, H181, FF48, etc, then you're just betting against the industry as a whole.  Unlike, say, modern variants (Star Wars craze, I'm looking at you).  But, sure, it could happen.  The stock market could go back to 5k too.  Capitalism could collapse and bullets and canned beans could be the primary currency of 2030.  Can't rule it out.

The question is whether it's more likely, based on objective, historical data, for for the market to go to 60k before it goes to 5k, or for H181 9.8 to go to 100k before it goes to 1k.  I believe the hard data supports my view, while the other view is driven by just a "gut feeling" that things are too high.  But, yeah, anything's possible.

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, october said:

Supply is somewhat of a factor, but the demand is so strong it just doesn't matter that much how many copies are available. 

I have always found that supply works both ways.  

Extreme rarity will actually hurt the increase in prices for a book because it's actually hard for a book to go up in value if copies only appear in the marketplace once or twice a decade if that.  

You need to have a good supply of the book out there to satiate the feeding frenzy in order to drive the valuations upwards ever more.  

[Randall Ries]

5 hours ago, Poekaymon said:

No one's finding a warehouse of 9.8 H181s.  It's true that there are thousands, or tens of thousands, of some books.  But there are also billions of people in the world.  I just don't even consider big firsts to be "speculating."  If you want to bet against AF15, H181, FF48, etc, then you're just betting against the industry as a whole.  Unlike, say, modern variants (Star Wars craze, I'm looking at you).  But, sure, it could happen.  The stock market could go back to 5k too.  Capitalism could collapse and bullets and canned beans could be the primary currency of 2030.  Can't rule it out.

The question is whether it's more likely, based on objective, historical data, for for the market to go to 60k before it goes to 5k, or for H181 9.8 to go to 100k before it goes to 1k.  I believe the hard data supports my view, while the other view is driven by just a "gut feeling" that things are too high.  But, yeah, anything's possible.

You know I was kidding, right? Just illustrating I'm the kind of person who discovers oil in his vegetable garden and all I will get out of it is dead tomatoes? "They" would find some way to disenfranchise me from my own garden. Yeh. I don't expect a warehouse find of 100,000 9.8's either. But it would figure. Just saying the numbers of available nice grade IH 181 compared to nice grade AF 15 is pretty vast. Not comparing apples and oranges. I agree with your latter take: Things are too high. Maybe it's because of COVID and the stock market guys are weirding out. I don't know.

The amount IH 181 is worth with the availability of the issue itself is out of whack. We seem to have entered a period of Name Your Own Selling Price. People see a high price, perhaps they assume that's its value now. I don't. A billion people in the world. Not all of them are going to say "Oh I GOTS to get me a Hulk 181." Heck. I bought Vampironica #4 with the Bat 251 homage. 300 printed. By definition, that's rare. $30? Given the desire for them is probably nil. I only bought it for the homage. To me the series looks like a Buffy redo. Teen angst in Vampiric mode.  IH 181 is a bandwagon thing. It isn't a book I want to own at all. I just don't care.

Then again, as long as Wolvie stays "hot" and approved by the public at large, the book won't utterly collapse. Same with "Star Wars", a franchise I REALLY wish would just go away.

[Randall Ries]

On 2/10/2021 at 1:10 AM, MGsimba77 said:

Wonder Woman is not a great example. There have been a number of subpar DC comics movies. They will never equal the MCU. The MCU moves the needle in a way no one else does. WW doesn't match the appeal of a Wolverine and never will. I don't put it past Feige to screw up the x-men rollout however. I don't know maybe he decides to bypass the big screen and limit them to Wandavision??? Perhaps some other dumb idea like having Wolverine in a tank top or who knows what? Maybe bad casting with unrecognizable costumes totally unrelated to the source material. Fox certainly went in that cringe worthy direction. Maybe he does nothing with X and continues releasing Ant man & Wasp type movies or another Avengers? So it's far from a guarantee he doesn't fumble this. These guys tend to have their own ideas on how these characters should be portrayed often straying dramatically from the source material. I wouldn't be surprised if Wolverine ends up looking like Timber Wolf 

The point is Wolverine's popularity provides more of a buffer than WW or maybe most DC titles. His instant healing powers protect from damage inflicted by knuckleheaded movie execs. That's a good thing!

DC movies for the most part stink up the joint. The first Wonder Woman movie was surprisingly good. Watchmen was good but depressing. I was one of the few who like Man of Steel. The rest could be burned AFAIC. Marvel has it all over DC in that regard. I don't know what DC's problem is but they better get their HOOTA's.

I was only illustrating WW 1984 had a definite impact on the sudden drop in price for AS #8 as the first movie pushed AS #8 up in price. If it had been a success, the prices would have gone higher. TBH, I have always been quizzical about WW's appeal anyway. How that title has lasted for 80 years is beyond me.

[Randall Ries]

7 hours ago, Poekaymon said:

Totally disagree.  Some books are affected by movies (and, even moreso it seems, rumors of movies), but Wolverine isn't one of them.  Some of his movies were seriously bad --didn't change anything.  And while Logan is generally considered one of the best superhero movies yet made, it was four years ago.  Not saying there won't be a correction market wide, but Wolvie doesn't rely on movies.

Oh no. Wolvie absolutely relies on movies. He was/is popular yes and an innovative character. But IH 181 went nutsie when a new generation of people were introduced to Wolverine and comicdom in general via the flickers. And I am too lazy and bored to do the research, but I imagine the bigger spikes in pricing of IH 181 came right after the movies that were successful entered the consciousness of investors and kids who wanted adamantium claws. For example, if another Wolvie movie comes out and wins an Academy Award or is outright awesome, you are implying that the value of IH 181 will remain static? I don't think so. A bunch of clunker movies would begin to force the prices down as a whole lot of people only have exposure to Wolvie through the talkies and back issues. Perhaps reprints. Seems like the whole thing is tied together now. A real multi-media lollapaloozer. Movies are like the stock market for comic books now.

[lou_fine]

19 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

I was only illustrating WW 1984 had a definite impact on the sudden drop in price for AS #8 as the first movie pushed AS #8 up in price. If it had been a success, the prices would have gone higher. TBH, I have always been quizzical about WW's appeal anyway. How that title has lasted for 80 years is beyond me.

Well, that's probably because the character was created and the stories written by the old professor way back in the 40's who clearly had ideas about sexual attitudes that were way ahead of their time:    

Looks like he certainly didn't mind "sharing" and I am sure he also found more titillating ways to use that lasso than what he had depicted in his comic book stories.    

Edited February 15, 2021 by lou_fine