Incredible Hulk #181 - is it *that* red-hot? 17 17

[Darkowl]

2 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

 

I believe that Alex already answered your question based upon his above post................it's all some kind of big crazy bubble that's taken hold.  

“There is no rational explanation for it.”

Sounds about right to me, so it’s interesting to at least attempt to dissect and analyze the chaos that shrouds the current market. 

[lou_fine]

4 hours ago, tdotcbc84 said:

It is hedging on inflation.

So all these comics are being inflated as well.

Econ 102 here   (It's the next course after learning supply and demand)

We all know the US (and basically the whole world) is printing more money than ever.  Right now, holding cash MIGHT (just a theory) be the worst thing you can do.  If hyper inflations happens, you'll see the US Dollar value of these books go even HIGHER.

Someone who understands economics more than me might want to explain.

Nothing at all like the current NFT (i.e. non-fungible token) craze whereby investors are spending 6 and 7-figures on digital clips that you can download for free anytime you want.  

Perfect example being this Beeple NFT entitled Everydays - The First 5,000 Days purchased by some crypto investors for more than $69M:    

https://gadgets.ndtv.com/internet/news/metapurse-beeple-virtual-art-usd-69-million-jpg-beeple-everydays-the-first-5000-days-cryptocurrency-bitcoin-nft-2394249

[Poekaymon]

3 hours ago, Darkowl said:

I never singled out H181 as the only book that feels off in terms of inflation, but you do realize what thread this is, right?

 

I know what thread we're in, thanks.  I was responding to exactly what you wrote.

6 hours ago, Darkowl said:

I’m incredibly hesitant to have the same kind of faith in this book.  [H181]

Something feels off to me.

My point was that I agree the entire market is "off," but much of it is "off" way more than H181, including all sorts of random stuff.  So I can understand avoiding that stuff, but if you're betting against H181 then you're just betting against the industry as a whole and you shouldn't "have faith" in any books whatsoever.  That's the part I'm disagreeing with--I would personally be fine picking up H181, and, say, AF15, Hulk 1, FF48, and the like, right now, regardless of any overall trends.

I also don't think it relies, at all, on Disney merch (have never seen anyone suggest that before) or any expansion of the character whatsoever.  That's exactly what separates it from all that other stuff I listed.  H181 was a hot book before the current craze which has seen minor characters and villains triple or quadruple or more in recent months. 

[ghn999]

I know hulk 181 is hot right now. What do u guys think this 3.5 faded one worth?

[Poekaymon]

15 minutes ago, ghn999 said:

I know hulk 181 is hot right now. What do u guys think this 3.5 faded one worth?

 

 

Fading is generally a bigger hit to higher graded books, so that a 3.5 wouldn't take that much of a hit, but that is quite severe.  I'd say it'd be lucky to get priced at 2.5, so I'd probably try for that.

Edited March 21, 2021 by Poekaymon

[Darkowl]

3 hours ago, Poekaymon said:

I know what thread we're in, thanks.  I was responding to exactly what you wrote.

My point was that I agree the entire market is "off," but much of it is "off" way more than H181, including all sorts of random stuff.  So I can understand avoiding that stuff, but if you're betting against H181 then you're just betting against the industry as a whole and you shouldn't "have faith" in any books whatsoever.  That's the part I'm disagreeing with--I would personally be fine picking up H181, and, say, AF15, Hulk 1, FF48, and the like, right now, regardless of any overall trends.

I also don't think it relies, at all, on Disney merch (have never seen anyone suggest that before) or any expansion of the character whatsoever.  That's exactly what separates it from all that other stuff I listed.  H181 was a hot book before the current craze which has seen minor characters and villains triple or quadruple or more in recent months. 

I wasn’t saying that Disney merch makes something popular, or relies on it to be popular. That wasn’t my point at all.

My point was that the merch you see in Disneyland gift shops usually reflects something that is really popular. Like I said, Wolverine is already a household name, and I can only imagine what new heights Disney will take this character.

The merch at Disneyland gift shops is just a small reflection of that. It’s not a defining point I was trying to make, so don’t read too deep into it.

And I never said I was betting against Hulk 181. I don’t have a crystal ball, and I have no idea what the future holds for the market, but considering the rapid inflation we’re seeing in the market (and yes it’s not just H181), I’m certainly not as a quick to bank on this particular book as I once was, or any other book that triples in value overnight.

And if the market does crash, H181 will probably take some sort of a hit a long with it. It’s not as invincible as the yellow masked anti-hero the book represents. 

Edited March 21, 2021 by Darkowl

[KCOComics]

6 hours ago, lou_fine said:

 

I believe that Alex already answered your question based upon his above post................it's all some kind of big crazy bubble that's taken hold.  

@lou_fine you've been around this hobby for a long long time.  Have you ever seen anything similar to this market? I can think of individual books going crazy for a stretch. AF15 and Hulk1 experienced massive growth very quickly years ago.  When it happened to Hulk 1, I remember saying to my brother it had experienced 40 years of growth in less than 1 year.  I really wanted that book and kept waiting for prices to return... I'm still waiting. 

I can't personally remember a time when so many big books have moved at this pace, as the same time.  

Can you speculate on where we go from here? The bubble bursts and we see a 10% to 30% correction? 

The movement maintains and these prices become the new norm? 

 

 

[Pantodude]

1 hour ago, KCOComics said:

Can you speculate on where we go from here?

Well, if you asked me, I'd say [paste formidably well-informed view here].  But you didn't, so . But here's a thought.  No one has mentioned this yet that I know of, but what if comic books, as liquid assets, have finally been recognized by entirely new regions of the world, like European and Asian and Arab investors?   We saw what happened when the Chinese and Arab upper crust dove into rare art.  That alone could explain the volatility with keys the past year.  And it could dwarf whatever impact we attribute to COVID boredom, unspent leisure cash, new collectors in this hobby, stimulus checks, sports card investors shifting to comics, etc.  Of course, I am talking about the big-boy-pants books now.  Does anyone actually know whether books are being bought for foreign accounts/addressess any more than in years past?   Any comic book  or auction site owners out there who can chime in?  

Edited March 21, 2021 by Pantodude

[Math Teacher]

4 hours ago, KCOComics said:

Can you speculate on where we go from here?

If you're a buyer, it will probably be to the poor house.

[mattn792]

Did someone say pour house?!?

[alexgross.com]

12 hours ago, Pantodude said:

Well, if you asked me, I'd say [paste formidably well-informed view here].  But you didn't, so . But here's a thought.  No one has mentioned this yet that I know of, but what if comic books, as liquid assets, have finally been recognized by entirely new regions of the world, like European and Asian and Arab investors?   We saw what happened when the Chinese and Arab upper crust dove into rare art.  That alone could explain the volatility with keys the past year.  And it could dwarf whatever impact we attribute to COVID boredom, unspent leisure cash, new collectors in this hobby, stimulus checks, sports card investors shifting to comics, etc.  Of course, I am talking about the big-boy-pants books now.  Does anyone actually know whether books are being bought for foreign accounts/addressess any more than in years past?   Any comic book  or auction site owners out there who can chime in?  

i dont see why this would have suddenly happened in just the last 1-2 months. and though the market did well since last summer/fall, nothing even close to what's going on with prices now was happening before december with most books. some have suggested all the crypto windfall money having something to do with this. it seems more likely, given the timing, than a bunch of foreign investors. crypto money is certainly is connected to the crazy NFT market explosion, so it seems possible to also be influencing this market. i see alot of newbies here on the boards of late. we should be asking them where they came from and why. 

[MGsimba77]

5 hours ago, www.alexgross.com said:

i see alot of newbies here on the boards of late. we should be asking them where they came from and why.

...who are you...where did you come from...what do you want from us?...state your business  

Just kidding ... the more the merrier!

[drotto]

On 3/21/2021 at 9:01 AM, ghn999 said:

I know hulk 181 is hot right now. What do u guys think this 3.5 faded one worth?

Personally, I would not want that book regardless of grade.  Please do not be offended by that statement. Something that faded is likely to be cheaper, but also a harder sale in the future if you decide to move it.

Edited March 22, 2021 by drotto

[MisterX]

An old label 9.0 with CREAM/OFF-WHITE pages just sold for $11,900 on eBay.

The Incredible Hulk #181 (Nov 1974, Marvel) CGC 9.0 759606086795 | eBay

I know, it's probably a CPR candidate, which might come back with OW/W pages, but still, dang!

[Pantodude]

On 3/21/2021 at 9:01 AM, ghn999 said:

I know hulk 181 is hot right now. What do u guys think this 3.5 faded one worth?

Actually, do you know if it faded after it was graded, or is this a recent slab or CGC otherwise graded it with the same amount of fading?   It seems to me that, the fading aside, the book looks real nice....like 5.0 or more nice, which suggests that CGC already downgraded it for the fading.   If so, you should be okay selling it as a 3.5.   

[lou_fine]

On 3/21/2021 at 7:25 AM, KCOComics said:

On 3/21/2021 at 12:25 AM, lou_fine said:

 

I believe that Alex already answered your question based upon his above post................it's all some kind of big crazy bubble that's taken hold.  

@lou_fine you've been around this hobby for a long long time.  Have you ever seen anything similar to this market? I can think of individual books going crazy for a stretch. AF15 and Hulk1 experienced massive growth very quickly years ago.  When it happened to Hulk 1, I remember saying to my brother it had experienced 40 years of growth in less than 1 year.  I really wanted that book and kept waiting for prices to return... I'm still waiting. 

I can't personally remember a time when so many big books have moved at this pace, as the same time.  

Can you speculate on where we go from here? The bubble bursts and we see a 10% to 30% correction? 

The movement maintains and these prices become the new norm? 

Well, based upon my collecting experience, I strongly believe that the comic book market tends to move in cycles as the heat in the marketplace will move from one part of the market to another part as time goes by which then results in a general increase across the majority of the comic book marketplace before it cycles back and repeats itself all over again.  Of course, there's a whole lot of moving and overlapping parts all taking place at the same time.    

For example, I remember how hot the new book market was back in the early 90's with the Wizard driven craze for the Valiant and Image hot books of the day.  By the time this craze fizzled out, the heat was already well onto the early SA books by then which had just gone through an almost decades long pause in the marketplace prior to the turn of the late 80's/early 90's.  Not surprisingly, GA was not really invited to this party in the early 90's, but definitely more than made up for it in the mid-90's for a couple of short years there when they were seemingly the belle of the ball with dealers offering unheard of multiples of guide for GA books back then.  

No idea where we go from here as I am certainly seeing bubbles in various parts of the comic book marketplace.  What else can you really call it when you see relatively common BA and CA books like GS X-Men 1, NM 98, and even Transformers 1 selling into the $40K+ range.  Probably a big correction here for these types of books that are really up there due primarily to either short term movie related hype or transitory factors such as CGC's highest graded copies.  I have never really understood the strategy behind paying a ridiculous record multiple for a highest graded copy of what is otherwise a relatively common book (except for grade) and then living in fear that another copy in equivalent grade or even higher grade would come to market and thereby destroying the value of your book.  As a long time collector, I would nuch rather be holding onto a vintage collectible comic book whereby I am looking forward to hopefully more copies coming into the marketplace so that they will not only reinforce the price which I had paid for the book, but also serve to push the price of my copy further up in valuation.  Why in the world would you want to be stuck holding onto a book at a record setting price and then hoping no other equivalent graded copy would come around because in more cases than not, MANY MORE copies will indeed come along over time.    

Those short term movie related hype books and highest graded copies brought at ridiculous prices are the one main place where I would expect to see a huge price correction over the short term.  For pretty much everything else, I would expect the standard ebbs and flows with the usual pauses in between as we have seen even with books like AF 15, Spidey 129, Hulk 181, etc. over time  I guess it really just depends on how long some of these pauses or slight down drafts are before they catch the next wave.      

Edited March 23, 2021 by lou_fine

[MGsimba77]

2 hours ago, lou_fine said:

I have never really understood the strategy behind paying a ridiculous record multiple for a highest graded copy of what is otherwise a relatively common book (except for grade) and then living in fear that another copy in equivalent grade or even higher grade would come to market and thereby destroying the value of your book.  As a long time collector, I would nuch rather be holding onto a vintage collectible comic book whereby I am looking forward to hopefully more copies coming into the marketplace so that they will not only reinforce the price which I had paid for the book, but also serve to push the price of my copy further up in valuation.  Why in the world would you want to be stuck holding onto a book at a record setting price and then hoping no other equivalent graded copy would come around because in more cases than not, MANY MORE copies will indeed come along over time.    

Would this apply across the board to all titles regardless of popularity? There were a few people around 2012 and beyond who might have regretted paying what they did in the early part of the 2000s for a 9.8 181. Was there some census filling going on post 2010? I wasn't even close to having enough funds in 2004 for a 9.8 181 being recently out of college. If I did I would of happily dished out 20k. If I'd asked dad to pay for a high grade ASM 1 in early 90's for what they were asking at the LCS he would have looked at me funny. I mean dad could have swung that easily but I never dared. I knew what the reaction would have been. 

[KCOComics]

5 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Well, based upon my collecting experience, I strongly believe that the comic book market tends to move in cycles as the heat in the marketplace will move from one part of the market to another part as time goes by which then results in a general increase across the majority of the comic book marketplace before it cycles back and repeats itself all over again.  Of course, there's a whole lot of moving and overlapping parts all taking place at the same time.    

For example, I remember how hot the new book market was back in the early 90's with the Wizard driven craze for the Valiant and Image hot books of the day.  By the time this craze fizzled out, the heat was already well onto the early SA books by then which had just gone through an almost decades long pause in the marketplace prior to the turn of the late 80's/early 90's.  Not surprisingly, GA was not really invited to this party in the early 90's, but definitely more than made up for it in the mid-90's for a couple of short years there when they were seemingly the belle of the ball with dealers offering unheard of multiples of guide for GA books back then.  

No idea where we go from here as I am certainly seeing bubbles in various parts of the comic book marketplace.  What else can you really call it when you see relatively common BA and CA books like GS X-Men 1, NM 98, and even Transformers 1 selling into the $40K+ range.  Probably a big correction here for these types of books that are really up there due primarily to either short term movie related hype or transitory factors such as CGC's highest graded copies.  I have never really understood the strategy behind paying a ridiculous record multiple for a highest graded copy of what is otherwise a relatively common book (except for grade) and then living in fear that another copy in equivalent grade or even higher grade would come to market and thereby destroying the value of your book.  As a long time collector, I would nuch rather be holding onto a vintage collectible comic book whereby I am looking forward to hopefully more copies coming into the marketplace so that they will not only reinforce the price which I had paid for the book, but also serve to push the price of my copy further up in valuation.  Why in the world would you want to be stuck holding onto a book at a record setting price and then hoping no other equivalent graded copy would come around because in more cases than not, MANY MORE copies will indeed come along over time.    

Those short term movie related hype books and highest graded copies brought at ridiculous prices are the one main place where I would expect to see a huge price correction over the short term.  For pretty much everything else, I would expect the standard ebbs and flows with the usual pauses in between as we have seen even with books like AF 15, Spidey 129, Hulk 181, etc. over time  I guess it really just depends on how long some of these pauses or slight down drafts are before they catch the next wave.      

 

This is pretty much how I feel. 

The current market isn't sustainable. That doesn't necessiraly mean a massive correction with prices reverting back to 2019.  It just means they can't keep rising like this and as the world opens up things will level off and possibly dip a bit. 

I also believe this is very different from what happened in the early 90s. While SA benefited from the interest in comics, that spike and eventual crash was really about moderns. Over produced #1 issues and variants that were manufactured to be collectors items.  

I guess all we can do is get some popcorn, sit back and enjoy the show while it lasts. 

[KCOComics]

7 hours ago, Pantodude said:

Actually, do you know if it faded after it was graded, or is this a recent slab or CGC otherwise graded it with the same amount of fading?   It seems to me that, the fading aside, the book looks real nice....like 5.0 or more nice, which suggests that CGC already downgraded it for the fading.   If so, you should be okay selling it as a 3.5.   

I'm guessing it was submitted already faded. 

How long has CGC done that character label? 

[WolverineX]

On 3/22/2021 at 12:00 AM, www.alexgross.com said:

i dont see why this would have suddenly happened in just the last 1-2 months. and though the market did well since last summer/fall, nothing even close to what's going on with prices now was happening before december with most books. some have suggested all the crypto windfall money having something to do with this. it seems more likely, given the timing, than a bunch of foreign investors. crypto money is certainly is connected to the crazy NFT market explosion, so it seems possible to also be influencing this market. i see alot of newbies here on the boards of late. we should be asking them where they came from and why. 

Agreed.  Similar demographic of people interested in crypto , nfts, comics,  cards,  etc.